Ivan Seeking
Jan10-04, 05:30 PM
The team has submitted a paper outlining the technique to Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, an international geophysics journal.
Seismologist Vladmir Keilis-Borok, who is the lead researcher on the project, called the advancement a "major breakthrough."
"Short-term prediction was considered impossible by many," said Keilis-Borok. "We have built on the work of scientists from all over the world to show that it can be done."
The team's new method differs from existing techniques in that it takes into account the small "chains" of tremors that often occur before a major earthquake.
When a long chain of related earthquakes is discovered in a region, the team analyzes the area's history, in search of various seismic patterns. If other patterns are discovered, the group announces a nine-month forecast.
Although the new method does not yet allow seismologists to pinpoint the exact date and time of future earthquakes, the UCLA researchers say it lets them narrow their forecasts to a range of several months.
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,61828,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_8
Seismologist Vladmir Keilis-Borok, who is the lead researcher on the project, called the advancement a "major breakthrough."
"Short-term prediction was considered impossible by many," said Keilis-Borok. "We have built on the work of scientists from all over the world to show that it can be done."
The team's new method differs from existing techniques in that it takes into account the small "chains" of tremors that often occur before a major earthquake.
When a long chain of related earthquakes is discovered in a region, the team analyzes the area's history, in search of various seismic patterns. If other patterns are discovered, the group announces a nine-month forecast.
Although the new method does not yet allow seismologists to pinpoint the exact date and time of future earthquakes, the UCLA researchers say it lets them narrow their forecasts to a range of several months.
http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,61828,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_8