View Full Version : [SOLVED] QED accuracy - was Frequentist probability confusion
Danny Ross Lunsford
Apr7-04, 08:50 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resize=yes,status=no,wi dth=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Patrick Powers wrote:\n\n> Actually, I think experimentalists use the Baysian approach. Usually\n> an experiment is undertaken with the expectation of some result. If\n> the results do not match this expectation, the equipment is tweaked\n> until the expected result is obtained. If this doesn\'t work either\n> the experiment is dropped or (rarely) some other explanation is found.\n\nI\'ve often worried that the vaunted accuracy of QED is illusory, that\nis, data are used to "tune" the equipment.\n\n-drl\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Patrick Powers wrote:
> Actually, I think experimentalists use the Baysian approach. Usually
> an experiment is undertaken with the expectation of some result. If
> the results do not match this expectation, the equipment is tweaked
> until the expected result is obtained. If this doesn't work either
> the experiment is dropped or (rarely) some other explanation is found.
I've often worried that the vaunted accuracy of QED is illusory, that
is, data are used to "tune" the equipment.
-drl
Italo Vecchi
Apr7-04, 09:08 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resize=yes,status=no,wi dth=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>nospam@de-ster.demon.nl (J. J. Lodder) wrote in message news:<1gba5ru.1bezr981snfu32N@de-ster.xs4all.nl>...\n\n> All coins are quantum coins, for we live in a quantum word.\n\nWell said.\n\n> In practice it may be quite hard to say whether or not\n> a coin throw may be considered to be \'classical\'.\n> Quantum mechanics may come in in the precise timing\n> of the twitching of your fingers, on the molecular level,\n> when flipping the coin.\n>\n\nQuantum mechanics kicks into coins also in the impossibility to\nfix/determine initial conditions.\nIn a chaotic system an initial "quantum scale" indeterminacy will\nquckly grow macroscopic, as highlighted in "Newtonian Chaos +\nHeisenberg Uncertainty = macroscopic indeterminacy" by Barone, S.R.,\nKunhardt, E.E., Bentson, J., and Syljuasen, A., American Journal of\nPhysics, Vol 61, No. 5, May 1993.\n\nCheers,\n\nIV\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>nospam@de-ster.demon.nl (J. J. Lodder) wrote in message news:<1gba5ru.1bezr981snfu32N@de-ster.xs4all.nl>...
> All coins are quantum coins, for we live in a quantum word.
Well said.
> In practice it may be quite hard to say whether or not
> a coin throw may be considered to be 'classical'.
> Quantum mechanics may come in in the precise timing
> of the twitching of your fingers, on the molecular level,
> when flipping the coin.
>
Quantum mechanics kicks into coins also in the impossibility to
fix/determine initial conditions.
In a chaotic system an initial "quantum scale" indeterminacy will
quckly grow macroscopic, as highlighted in "Newtonian Chaos +
Heisenberg Uncertainty = macroscopic indeterminacy" by Barone, S.R.,
Kunhardt, E.E., Bentson, J., and Syljuasen, A., American Journal of
Physics, Vol 61, No. 5, May 1993.
Cheers,
IV
rof@maths.tcd.ie
Apr7-04, 09:15 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resize=yes,status=no,wi dth=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n\n\n>> rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c3njd0\\$295l\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...\n \n>>>For example, you\'ll find in many probability\n>>>books and hear from the mouths of top probability theorists the\n>>>claim that no process can produce random, uniformly distributed\n>>>positive integers, but that processes can produce random uniformly\n>>>distributed real numbers between zero and one (e.g. toss a fair\n>>>coin exactly aleph_0 times to get the binary expansion).\n\n>This has a very simple reason: There is no consistent definition of\n>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is\n>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.\n\nPlease give the definition you claim exists.\n\n>This is a purely mathematical statement independent of any\n>interpretation!\n\nWow.\n\n>And of course, when people say \'produce\' they mean\n>\'produce in theory\', or if they mean \'produce in practice\' they\n>have in mind that it is produced only approximately.\n\nMy point was that probability distributions and methods of\ngenerating random numbers are not in one-to-one correspondance, and\nI gave an example of a method of generating integers which had\nno corresponding probability distribution. I too meant "produce\nin theory", since obviously we can\'t use the axiom of choice in\nreal life, but if we want to understand what probability theory\nis and isn\'t about (in theory), then we shouldn\'t make mistakes\non this fundamental point.\n\nR.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>> rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c3njd0$295l$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...
>>>For example, you'll find in many probability
>>>books and hear from the mouths of top probability theorists the
>>>claim that no process can produce random, uniformly distributed
>>>positive integers, but that processes can produce random uniformly
>>>distributed real numbers between zero and one (e.g. toss a fair
>>>coin exactly \aleph_0 times to get the binary expansion).
>This has a very simple reason: There is no consistent definition of
>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is
>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.
Please give the definition you claim exists.
>This is a purely mathematical statement independent of any
>interpretation!
Wow.
>And of course, when people say 'produce' they mean
>'produce in theory', or if they mean 'produce in practice' they
>have in mind that it is produced only approximately.
My point was that probability distributions and methods of
generating random numbers are not in one-to-one correspondance, and
I gave an example of a method of generating integers which had
no corresponding probability distribution. I too meant "produce
in theory", since obviously we can't use the axiom of choice in
real life, but if we want to understand what probability theory
is and isn't about (in theory), then we shouldn't make mistakes
on this fundamental point.
R.
rof@maths.tcd.ie
Apr7-04, 09:26 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:\n\n>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c3njd0\\$295l\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...\n >>\n>> Right, so actually, the frequentist interpretation of probability\n>> suffers from the same disease that the many-worlds interpretation\n>> does, or at least the non-Bayesian one. In many worlds, the problem\n>> is that there\'s no way to justify dismissing worlds with a small\n>> quantum amplitude as being rare, and in the frequentist\n>> version of probability theory, there\'s no way to justify dismissing\n>> outcomes with small probability as being rare.\n>>\n>Quantum theory is a probabilistic theory and extremely unlikely events\n>are not excluded, nor should they be. So this is a property of the\n>theory, not the interpretation. It seems to me that an interpretation\n>that excluded such events absolutely would be in error.\n\nI\'m not saying that they should be excluded; as a good Bayesian\nI would merely say that the information available to me leads\nme to expect that they won\'t happen, although it\'s not impossible.\n\n>> The frequentist interpretation of probability suffers from worse\n>> diseases as well. For example, you\'ll find in many probability\n>> books and hear from the mouths of top probability theorists the\n>> claim that no process can produce random, uniformly distributed\n>> positive integers, but that processes can produce random uniformly\n>> distributed real numbers between zero and one (e.g. toss a fair\n>> coin exactly aleph_0 times to get the binary expansion).\n\n>Yes these claims as stated are contradictory. I suspect that the\n>definitions you are using are imprecise. The word "process" implies\n>computability, that the process is finite. A real number is cleverly\n>defined as a limit of a finite process. So a real number is\n>computable in this sense, that it can be approximated as closely as\n>one likes in finite time. The problem with your proof is that as the\n>real number is computed the choice of cosets changes with each step so\n>the process does not converge to an integer.\n\nYou are right; there is no convergence and there\'s no way to\nactually compute such an integer or any approximation to it\nin a finite number of operations. Modern mathematics, however,\nallows us to deal with infinite sets without having to always\nconsider what can and can not be done in a finite number of\noperations. The set of (not necessarily continuous) functions\nfrom R to R has a cardinality greater than R itself, for example,\nalthough this fact is of no relevance to finite creatures like\nus. We don\'t *need* to define reals in terms of limits (for example,\nwe can define them in terms of Dedekind cuts).\n\nSo, rather than considering what\'s happening with the\ncosets as being something which happens while the number is being\ngenerated, I suppose that some acquaintance of mine can merely\ngive me a random number between 0 and 1, and then I convert\nit into an integer. You, for example, might tell me 0.5 which\nyou can do in finite time, having generated it by your own\nalgorithm, which might be "just pick the middle number". If my\nchoice function is independent of your choice of number, then the\ninteger corresponding to 0.5 will be as random as the integer\ncorresponding to any other real number.\n\nOn the other hand, your point is well taken; generating reals\nbetween 0 and 1 is itself impossible in practice.\n\n>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a\n>natural number at random. There are some rather strange consequences.\n> It is then possible to prove that each number chosen in this way will\n>be greater than all such previously chosen numbers with probability\n>one. Let N be the greatest such number chosen so far. Then there are\n>finitely many natural numbers less than or equal to N but infinitely\n>many greater than N. So the next number chosen will be greater than N\n>with probability one. Note that our ostensibly random sequence is\n>strictly increasing with probability one.\n\nIf we consider infinite processes then the notion that the probabilities\none or zero mean anything goes out the window. Note that if I\ntell you the third "random" integer first, then with probability\none the second is bigger than it, so with probability one the sequence\nis not strictly increasing.\n\n>This is not the only\n>bizarre consequence of the axiom of choice: see the well-known\n>Banach-Tarski sphere paradox. So I should think a physicist would do\n>well to be wary of the axiom of choice as tending to produce\n>non-physical results.\n\nIndeed; these are more mathematical facts than physical ones.\nAlso, you don\'t need the axiom of choice to produce things like\nBanach-Tarski - the set of complex numbers:\nA={\\sum a_n exp(i*n): a_n in N}, where N is the set of non-negative\nintegers can be broken into A=B disjoint union C, where B is A+1 and\nC is exp(i)*A. Both B and C are exactly the same shape and size\nas A, B being a translated version of A and C being a rotated version\nof A, so A can be broken into two parts, each as "big" as A itself.\n\nWhat I\'m saying is that physicists don\'t need the axiom of choice\nto get "unphysical" results. Infinite sets, which we use all the\ntime, are sufficient.\n\n>The frequentist approach does not assume the axiom of choice and makes\n>no use of transfinite mathematics or completed limits. If it did, the\n>problems you mention would in fact arise.\n\nWell, the problems I mentioned arise if we believe the axiom\nof choice, the "experiment generating random numbers" version of\nprobability theory, and the idea that we can deal with infinite\nsets (an axiom of infinity, eg "there exist infinite sets"), all\nat the same time.\n\nR.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:
>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c3njd0$295l$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...
>>
>> Right, so actually, the frequentist interpretation of probability
>> suffers from the same disease that the many-worlds interpretation
>> does, or at least the non-Bayesian one. In many worlds, the problem
>> is that there's no way to justify dismissing worlds with a small
>> quantum amplitude as being rare, and in the frequentist
>> version of probability theory, there's no way to justify dismissing
>> outcomes with small probability as being rare.
>>
>Quantum theory is a probabilistic theory and extremely unlikely events
>are not excluded, nor should they be. So this is a property of the
>theory, not the interpretation. It seems to me that an interpretation
>that excluded such events absolutely would be in error.
I'm not saying that they should be excluded; as a good Bayesian
I would merely say that the information available to me leads
me to expect that they won't happen, although it's not impossible.
>> The frequentist interpretation of probability suffers from worse
>> diseases as well. For example, you'll find in many probability
>> books and hear from the mouths of top probability theorists the
>> claim that no process can produce random, uniformly distributed
>> positive integers, but that processes can produce random uniformly
>> distributed real numbers between zero and one (e.g. toss a fair
>> coin exactly \aleph_0 times to get the binary expansion).
>Yes these claims as stated are contradictory. I suspect that the
>definitions you are using are imprecise. The word "process" implies
>computability, that the process is finite. A real number is cleverly
>defined as a limit of a finite process. So a real number is
>computable in this sense, that it can be approximated as closely as
>one likes in finite time. The problem with your proof is that as the
>real number is computed the choice of cosets changes with each step so
>the process does not converge to an integer.
You are right; there is no convergence and there's no way to
actually compute such an integer or any approximation to it
in a finite number of operations. Modern mathematics, however,
allows us to deal with infinite sets without having to always
consider what can and can not be done in a finite number of
operations. The set of (not necessarily continuous) functions
from R to R has a cardinality greater than R itself, for example,
although this fact is of no relevance to finite creatures like
us. We don't *need* to define reals in terms of limits (for example,
we can define them in terms of Dedekind cuts).
So, rather than considering what's happening with the
cosets as being something which happens while the number is being
generated, I suppose that some acquaintance of mine can merely
give me a random number between and 1, and then I convert
it into an integer. You, for example, might tell me .5 which
you can do in finite time, having generated it by your own
algorithm, which might be "just pick the middle number". If my
choice function is independent of your choice of number, then the
integer corresponding to .5 will be as random as the integer
corresponding to any other real number.
On the other hand, your point is well taken; generating reals
between and 1 is itself impossible in practice.
>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a
>natural number at random. There are some rather strange consequences.
> It is then possible to prove that each number chosen in this way will
>be greater than all such previously chosen numbers with probability
>one. Let N be the greatest such number chosen so far. Then there are
>finitely many natural numbers less than or equal to N but infinitely
>many greater than N. So the next number chosen will be greater than N
>with probability one. Note that our ostensibly random sequence is
>strictly increasing with probability one.
If we consider infinite processes then the notion that the probabilities
one or zero mean anything goes out the window. Note that if I
tell you the third "random" integer first, then with probability
one the second is bigger than it, so with probability one the sequence
is not strictly increasing.
>This is not the only
>bizarre consequence of the axiom of choice: see the well-known
>Banach-Tarski sphere paradox. So I should think a physicist would do
>well to be wary of the axiom of choice as tending to produce
>non-physical results.
Indeed; these are more mathematical facts than physical ones.
Also, you don't need the axiom of choice to produce things like
Banach-Tarski - the set of complex numbers:
A={\sum a_n \exp(i*n): a_n in N}, where N is the set of non-negative
integers can be broken into A=B disjoint union C, where B is A+1 and
C is \exp(i)*A. Both B and C are exactly the same shape and size
as A, B being a translated version of A and C being a rotated version
of A, so A can be broken into two parts, each as "big" as A itself.
What I'm saying is that physicists don't need the axiom of choice
to get "unphysical" results. Infinite sets, which we use all the
time, are sufficient.
>The frequentist approach does not assume the axiom of choice and makes
>no use of transfinite mathematics or completed limits. If it did, the
>problems you mention would in fact arise.
Well, the problems I mentioned arise if we believe the axiom
of choice, the "experiment generating random numbers" version of
probability theory, and the idea that we can deal with infinite
sets (an axiom of infinity, eg "there exist infinite sets"), all
at the same time.
R.
Arnold Neumaier
Apr7-04, 09:27 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Bartosz Milewski wrote:\n> "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote in message\n> news:c4fh54\\$uur\\$1@lfa222122.richmond.edu...\n> \n>>The sense it makes is the following: If you have a sound probabilistic\n>>model of a multitude of independent events e_i with assigned\n>>probability p you\'d be surprised if the frequency of events is not\n>>close to p within a small multiple of sqrt(p(1-p)/N). And you\'d probably\n>>rather try to explain away a rare occurence (a brick going upwards due\n>>to fluctuations) by assuming a hidden, unobserved cause (someone throwing\n>>it) rather than just accept it as something within your probabilistic\n>>mode. The way probabilities are used in practice is always as rough guides\n>>of what to expect, but not as statements with a 100% exact meaning.\n>>I wrote a paper on surprise:\n>> A. Neumaier,\n>> Fuzzy modeling in terms of surprise,\n>> Fuzzy Sets and Systems 135 (2003), 21-38.\n>> http://www.mat.univie.ac.at/~neum/papers.html#fuzzy\n>>that helps understand the fuzziness inherent in our concepts of reality.\n>\n>\n> This brings about an interesting possibility that the cutoff is anthropic.\n\nNot only anthropic, but subjective. Different people have different\nviews on the matter and are prepared to take different risks.\n\n> Things that are statistically improbable (from the point of the theory we\n> are testing), even if they happen, are rejected. Conversely, if too many\n> improbable things happen, we reject the theory. So there is no correct or\n> incorrect theory (as long as it\'s self-consistent), only the currently\n> accepted one.\n\nPositrons were observed before they were predicted by theory, but the\nobservers didn\'t believe the phenomenon was real. Rather than face\nridicule with a premature publication they ignored their evidence.\nOn the other hand, cold fusion had a different story...\n\nWe take a small probability p serious only if the associated phenomena\nare repeatable frequently enough that an approximate frequentist\ninterpretation makes sense.\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Bartosz Milewski wrote:
> "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote in message
> news:c4fh54$uur$1@lfa222122.richmond.edu...
>
>>The sense it makes is the following: If you have a sound probabilistic
>>model of a multitude of independent events e_i with assigned
>>probability p you'd be surprised if the frequency of events is not
>>close to p within a small multiple of \sqrt(p(1-p)/N). And you'd probably
>>rather try to explain away a rare occurence (a brick going upwards due
>>to fluctuations) by assuming a hidden, unobserved cause (someone throwing
>>it) rather than just accept it as something within your probabilistic
>>mode. The way probabilities are used in practice is always as rough guides
>>of what to expect, but not as statements with a 100% exact meaning.
>>I wrote a paper on surprise:
>> A. Neumaier,
>> Fuzzy modeling in terms of surprise,
>> Fuzzy Sets and Systems 135 (2003), 21-38.
>> http://www.mat.univie.ac.at/~neum/papers.html#fuzzy
>>that helps understand the fuzziness inherent in our concepts of reality.
>
>
> This brings about an interesting possibility that the cutoff is anthropic.
Not only anthropic, but subjective. Different people have different
views on the matter and are prepared to take different risks.
> Things that are statistically improbable (from the point of the theory we
> are testing), even if they happen, are rejected. Conversely, if too many
> improbable things happen, we reject the theory. So there is no correct or
> incorrect theory (as long as it's self-consistent), only the currently
> accepted one.
Positrons were observed before they were predicted by theory, but the
observers didn't believe the phenomenon was real. Rather than face
ridicule with a premature publication they ignored their evidence.
On the other hand, cold fusion had a different story...
We take a small probability p serious only if the associated phenomena
are repeatable frequently enough that an approximate frequentist
interpretation makes sense.
Arnold Neumaier
ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu
Apr7-04, 09:28 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>\n\nIn article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>, \nPatrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:\n\n>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a\n>natural number at random\n\n>From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,\nwith all natural numbers equally probable.\n\nIs this statement meant to be obvious? It\'s not at all clear to me\nhow the axiom of choice says anything about probabilities.\n\nIf it\'s not meant to be obvious, but is nonetheless true, can someone\npoint me to an appropriate place to read more on this?\n\n-Ted\n\n--\n[E-mail me at name@domain.edu, as opposed to name@machine.domain.edu.]\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>,
Patrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:
>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a
>natural number at random
>From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,
with all natural numbers equally probable.
Is this statement meant to be obvious? It's not at all clear to me
how the axiom of choice says anything about probabilities.
If it's not meant to be obvious, but is nonetheless true, can someone
point me to an appropriate place to read more on this?
-Ted
--
[E-mail me at name@domain.edu, as opposed to name@machine.domain.edu.]
Arnold Neumaier
Apr8-04, 05:50 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>\n\n\nDanny Ross Lunsford wrote:\n>\n> I\'ve often worried that the vaunted accuracy of QED is illusory, that\n> is, data are used to "tune" the equipment.\n\nThere is no way to tune the Lamb shift.\n\nAny equipment has to be calibrated to give maximally consistent\nresults (i.e., smallest measurement errors), but this is a\ncompletely different matter.\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Danny Ross Lunsford wrote:
>
> I've often worried that the vaunted accuracy of QED is illusory, that
> is, data are used to "tune" the equipment.
There is no way to tune the Lamb shift.
Any equipment has to be calibrated to give maximally consistent
results (i.e., smallest measurement errors), but this is a
completely different matter.
Arnold Neumaier
Daryl McCullough
Apr8-04, 02:26 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu says...\n\n>In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>, \n>Patrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:\n>\n>>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a\n>>natural number at random\n>\n>>From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,\n>with all natural numbers equally probable.\n>\n>Is this statement meant to be obvious? It\'s not at all clear to me\n>how the axiom of choice says anything about probabilities.\n>\n>If it\'s not meant to be obvious, but is nonetheless true, can someone\n>point me to an appropriate place to read more on this?\n\nI\'m cross-posting to sci.math, because maybe a mathematician\nhas something to add. Patrick\'s point is not complicated\nto prove, but it\'s hard to understand how to interpret it.\n\n1. Pick an enumeration of all positive rational numbers\nbetween 0 and 1. For example, 1/2, 1/3, 2/3, 1/4, 3/4, 1/5, 2/5,\n3/5, 4/5, ... Let q_n be the nth rational number.\n\n2. Define an equivalence relation on real numbers between\n0 and 1: x ~~ y if and only if |x-y| is rational.\n\n3. Using the axiom of choice, construct a set S by picking\none element out of every equivalence class.\n\n4. Define S_n to be { x | |x - q_n| is in S }\n\nNote that S_0 union S_1 union S_2 union ... = (0,1).\n\n5. So here\'s how you generate a random nonnegative integer: Generate\na random real x in (0,1), and let your random integer be that n such\nthat x is an element of S_n.\n\nThere is no probability distribution on the possible outcomes of this\nprocess, so it isn\'t a "uniform distribution on the integers" in a\nmeasure-theoretic sense. But you can argue by symmetry that in some\nsense every n is "equally likely" because each of the sets S_n are\nidentical, except for a translation.\n\n--\nDaryl McCullough\nIthaca, NY\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu says...
>In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>,
>Patrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a
>>natural number at random
>
>>From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,
>with all natural numbers equally probable.
>
>Is this statement meant to be obvious? It's not at all clear to me
>how the axiom of choice says anything about probabilities.
>
>If it's not meant to be obvious, but is nonetheless true, can someone
>point me to an appropriate place to read more on this?
I'm cross-posting to sci.math, because maybe a mathematician
has something to add. Patrick's point is not complicated
to prove, but it's hard to understand how to interpret it.
1. Pick an enumeration of all positive rational numbers
between and 1. For example, 1/2, 1/3, 2/3, 1/4, 3/4, 1/5, 2/5,
3/5, 4/5, ... Let q_n be the nth rational number.
2. Define an equivalence relation on real numbers between
and 1: x ~~ y if and only if |x-y| is rational.
3. Using the axiom of choice, construct a set S by picking
one element out of every equivalence class.
4. Define S_n to be { x | |x - q_n| is in S }
Note that S_0 union S_1 union S_2 union ... = (0,1).
5. So here's how you generate a random nonnegative integer: Generate
a random real x in (0,1), and let your random integer be that n such
that x is an element of S_n.
There is no probability distribution on the possible outcomes of this
process, so it isn't a "uniform distribution on the integers" in a
measure-theoretic sense. But you can argue by symmetry that in some
sense every n is "equally likely" because each of the sets S_n are
identical, except for a translation.
--
Daryl McCullough
Ithaca, NY
Arnold Neumaier
Apr8-04, 02:26 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:\n> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n\n>>There is no consistent definition of\n>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is\n>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.\n>\n> Please give the definition you claim exists.\n\nJust to know what kind of answer you\'d be prepared to accept,\nplease let me know what you regard as the definition of random\nbinary numbers with equal probabilities of 0 and 1. Then I\'ll\nbe able to answer your more difficult question satisfactorily.\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:
> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>>There is no consistent definition of
>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is
>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.
>
> Please give the definition you claim exists.
Just to know what kind of answer you'd be prepared to accept,
please let me know what you regard as the definition of random
binary numbers with equal probabilities of and 1. Then I'll
be able to answer your more difficult question satisfactorily.
Arnold Neumaier
Arnold Neumaier
Apr8-04, 06:38 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu wrote:\n> In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>, \n> Patrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:\n>\n>\n>>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a\n>>natural number at random\n>\n>\n>>From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,\n> with all natural numbers equally probable.\n\nThere is no uniform distribution on natural numbers.\nThere is no way to make formal sense of the statement\n\'all natural numbers equally probable\'.\nThus this \'context\' is logically meaningless.\n\nThe natural least informative distribution on natural numbers\nis a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed\nabout the mean.\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu wrote:
> In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>,
> Patrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
>
>>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a
>>natural number at random
>
>
>>From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,
> with all natural numbers equally probable.
There is no uniform distribution on natural numbers.
There is no way to make formal sense of the statement
'all natural numbers equally probable'.
Thus this 'context' is logically meaningless.
The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers
is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed
about the mean.
Arnold Neumaier
Phillip Helbig---remove CLOTHES to reply
Apr8-04, 06:40 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>In article <40745CDC.1060005@univie.ac.at>, Arnold Neumaier\n<Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n\n> > I\'ve often worried that the vaunted accuracy of QED is illusory, that\n> > is, data are used to "tune" the equipment.\n>\n> There is no way to tune the Lamb shift.\n>\n> Any equipment has to be calibrated to give maximally consistent\n> results (i.e., smallest measurement errors), but this is a\n> completely different matter.\n\nWhen I was studying physics in Hamburg, in the course on electrodynamics\n(which basically followed Jackson\'s book), the lecturer (Prof. Dr.\nHeinrich Victor von Geramb) remarked on the good agreement of QED theory\nand observation, to 13 significant digits or whatever it was at the\ntime. I asked him what happens after the least significant digit: is\nthat as accurate as experiment can get, or are genuine deviations\ndetected. His answer was neither: that\'s as accurate as the theory can\nget (at present), since the actual numerical calculations are quite\ninvolved.\n\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>In article <40745CDC.1060005@univie.ac.at>, Arnold Neumaier
<Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
> > I've often worried that the vaunted accuracy of QED is illusory, that
> > is, data are used to "tune" the equipment.
>
> There is no way to tune the Lamb shift.
>
> Any equipment has to be calibrated to give maximally consistent
> results (i.e., smallest measurement errors), but this is a
> completely different matter.
When I was studying physics in Hamburg, in the course on electrodynamics
(which basically followed Jackson's book), the lecturer (Prof. Dr.
Heinrich Victor von Geramb) remarked on the good agreement of QED theory
and observation, to 13 significant digits or whatever it was at the
time. I asked him what happens after the least significant digit: is
that as accurate as experiment can get, or are genuine deviations
detected. His answer was neither: that's as accurate as the theory can
get (at present), since the actual numerical calculations are quite
involved.
rof@maths.tcd.ie
Apr8-04, 06:42 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n\n>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:\n>> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n\n>>>There is no consistent definition of\n>>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is\n>>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.\n>>\n>> Please give the definition you claim exists.\n\n>Just to know what kind of answer you\'d be prepared to accept,\n>please let me know what you regard as the definition of random\n>binary numbers with equal probabilities of 0 and 1. Then I\'ll\n>be able to answer your more difficult question satisfactorily.\n\nI never claimed that there was a consistent definition of\na random number at all; in fact, I would say that there isn\'t.\nWe might very well have a situation where we have incomplete\ninformation about the value of a particular number, and in\nsuch cases we use probability theory to reason about it.\n\nIt would be incorrect to jump from there to the statement that there\nwas some process used to generate the number with the property that\nthe same process applied twice will produce a different number even\nthough nothing at all is different the second time around, except\nthe number produced. This is, approximately, what people mean when\nthey talk of randomness. If we suppose that some unknown difference\nis responsible for producing a different number the second time,\nthen this is merely lack of knowledge and not randomness - that is,\nit is a Bayesian interpretation.\n\nSo my position is the following - the use of probability theory\nis not required because of a property that the number we\nwish to talk about has (ie randomness is not a property of\nnumbers themselves, and hence there is no such thing as a\nrandom number). Neither is it required because of a property\nof a method of producing those numbers (the "randomness"\nproperty described in the above paragraph), and in fact I have\nproven that probability theory is not something which tells\nus about methods of generating numbers. I would say that\nprobability theory is required when we do not have sufficient\ninformation to reason deductively, and that it expresses the\nrelationship between given information and possible values of\nthe number, where possible means not ruled out by the\ninformation available.\n\nInstead of giving you a definition of a random number, I will\ntell you that I would use probability if I did not know whether a\nparticular number was 0 or 1. Now you can let me know what\nwas the consistent definition you had in mind for "random uniformly\ndistributed real numbers between zero and one", when you claimed\nthat one existed.\n\nR.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:
>> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>>>There is no consistent definition of
>>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is
>>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.
>>
>> Please give the definition you claim exists.
>Just to know what kind of answer you'd be prepared to accept,
>please let me know what you regard as the definition of random
>binary numbers with equal probabilities of and 1. Then I'll
>be able to answer your more difficult question satisfactorily.
I never claimed that there was a consistent definition of
a random number at all; in fact, I would say that there isn't.
We might very well have a situation where we have incomplete
information about the value of a particular number, and in
such cases we use probability theory to reason about it.
It would be incorrect to jump from there to the statement that there
was some process used to generate the number with the property that
the same process applied twice will produce a different number even
though nothing at all is different the second time around, except
the number produced. This is, approximately, what people mean when
they talk of randomness. If we suppose that some unknown difference
is responsible for producing a different number the second time,
then this is merely lack of knowledge and not randomness - that is,
it is a Bayesian interpretation.
So my position is the following - the use of probability theory
is not required because of a property that the number we
wish to talk about has (ie randomness is not a property of
numbers themselves, and hence there is no such thing as a
random number). Neither is it required because of a property
of a method of producing those numbers (the "randomness"
property described in the above paragraph), and in fact I have
proven that probability theory is not something which tells
us about methods of generating numbers. I would say that
probability theory is required when we do not have sufficient
information to reason deductively, and that it expresses the
relationship between given information and possible values of
the number, where possible means not ruled out by the
information available.
Instead of giving you a definition of a random number, I will
tell you that I would use probability if I did not know whether a
particular number was or 1. Now you can let me know what
was the consistent definition you had in mind for "random uniformly
distributed real numbers between zero and one", when you claimed
that one existed.
R.
rof@maths.tcd.ie
Apr8-04, 06:43 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>daryl@atc-nycorp.com (Daryl McCullough) writes:\n\n>ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu says...\n\n>>In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>, \n>>Patrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:\n>>\n>>>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a\n>>>natural number at random\n\n> Patrick\'s point is not complicated\n>to prove, but it\'s hard to understand how to interpret it.\n\nIt was my point, and I\'ll offer four possible interpretations:\n\n1. Probability theory only works for finite sets.\n2. The axiom of choice is wrong.\n3. Probability theory does not tell us what kinds of processes\nof generating numbers are or aren\'t possible, and in fact\nmethods of generating numbers exist which have no corresponding\nprobability distribution.\n4. The problem is a problem with real arithmetic. Replace\nreals by (for example) Conway numbers and consistent probability\ndistributions can be generated.\n\nI think 3 is the most conservative.\n\nR.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>daryl@atc-nycorp.com (Daryl McCullough) writes:
>ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu says...
>>In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>,
>>Patrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a
>>>natural number at random
> Patrick's point is not complicated
>to prove, but it's hard to understand how to interpret it.
It was my point, and I'll offer four possible interpretations:
1. Probability theory only works for finite sets.
2. The axiom of choice is wrong.
3. Probability theory does not tell us what kinds of processes
of generating numbers are or aren't possible, and in fact
methods of generating numbers exist which have no corresponding
probability distribution.
4. The problem is a problem with real arithmetic. Replace
reals by (for example) Conway numbers and consistent probability
distributions can be generated.
I think 3 is the most conservative.
R.
ZZBunker
Apr11-04, 11:44 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>\n\n\n\nebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu wrote in message news:<c4v9oc\\$dlf\\$1@lfa222122.richmond.edu>...\ n> In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>, \n> Patrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:\n>\n> >Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a\n> >natural number at random\n>\n> >From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,\n> with all natural numbers equally probable.\n>\n> Is this statement meant to be obvious? It\'s not at all clear to me\n> how the axiom of choice says anything about probabilities.\n\nThat\'s because AC doesn\'t say anything about natural numbers.\nIt says that the real numbers can be well-ordered.\n\nAll AC asserts is that there are choice functions\nC:N->{0,1).\n\nIf C and D are choice functions, then\nC=D iff C(n)=D(n) for all n.\n\nIt doesn\'t say anything about natural numbers.\nIt doesn\'t say anything about real numbers.\nIt doesn\'t say anything about probabilities.\nIt doesn\'t say how to construct a choice function.\nIt doesn\'t say anything about pi.\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n>\n> If it\'s not meant to be obvious, but is nonetheless true, can someone\n> point me to an appropriate place to read more on this?\n>\n> -Ted\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu wrote in message news:<c4v9oc$dlf$1@lfa222122.richmond.edu>...
> In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>,
> Patrick Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:
>
> >Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a
> >natural number at random
>
> >From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,
> with all natural numbers equally probable.
>
> Is this statement meant to be obvious? It's not at all clear to me
> how the axiom of choice says anything about probabilities.
That's because AC doesn't say anything about natural numbers.
It says that the real numbers can be well-ordered.
All AC asserts is that there are choice functions
C:N->{0,1).
If C and D are choice functions, then
C=D iff C(n)=D(n) for all n.
It doesn't say anything about natural numbers.
It doesn't say anything about real numbers.
It doesn't say anything about probabilities.
It doesn't say how to construct a choice function.
It doesn't say anything about \pi.
>
> If it's not meant to be obvious, but is nonetheless true, can someone
> point me to an appropriate place to read more on this?
>
> -Ted
Patrick Powers
Apr11-04, 11:44 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>\n\n\nrof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c54a85\\$2nrl\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...\n > daryl@atc-nycorp.com (Daryl McCullough) writes:\n>\n>\n> It was my point, and I\'ll offer four possible interpretations:\n>\n> 1. Probability theory only works for finite sets.\n> 2. The axiom of choice is wrong.\n> 3. Probability theory does not tell us what kinds of processes\n> of generating numbers are or aren\'t possible, and in fact\n> methods of generating numbers exist which have no corresponding\n> probability distribution.\n> 4. The problem is a problem with real arithmetic. Replace\n> reals by (for example) Conway numbers and consistent probability\n> distributions can be generated.\n>\n> I think 3 is the most conservative.\n>\n> R.\n\nYou began with a criticism of frequentism. Frequentism is a\nnuts-and-bolts area of mathematics intended for use by physicists,\nstatisticians, and the like. As such, it concerns itself with finite\nprocesses, computable numbers, and limits. To use other tools to\nattempt to invalidate such results is simply irrelevant: there is no\npoint in arguing about what tools are permissible, one simple chooses\none\'s arena and proceeds from there. So this area of probability\ntheory indeed places limits on processes of generating random numbers.\nIf you choose to play a different game, you will likely get different\nresults. And very well you may do so: probability theory is by no\nmeans restricted to frequentism.\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c54a85$2nrl$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...
> daryl@atc-nycorp.com (Daryl McCullough) writes:
>
>
> It was my point, and I'll offer four possible interpretations:
>
> 1. Probability theory only works for finite sets.
> 2. The axiom of choice is wrong.
> 3. Probability theory does not tell us what kinds of processes
> of generating numbers are or aren't possible, and in fact
> methods of generating numbers exist which have no corresponding
> probability distribution.
> 4. The problem is a problem with real arithmetic. Replace
> reals by (for example) Conway numbers and consistent probability
> distributions can be generated.
>
> I think 3 is the most conservative.
>
> R.
You began with a criticism of frequentism. Frequentism is a
nuts-and-bolts area of mathematics intended for use by physicists,
statisticians, and the like. As such, it concerns itself with finite
processes, computable numbers, and limits. To use other tools to
attempt to invalidate such results is simply irrelevant: there is no
point in arguing about what tools are permissible, one simple chooses
one's arena and proceeds from there. So this area of probability
theory indeed places limits on processes of generating random numbers.
If you choose to play a different game, you will likely get different
results. And very well you may do so: probability theory is by no
means restricted to frequentism.
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>\n\n"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n\n> The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers\n> is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed\n> about the mean.\n\nIt would be Poisson if, in addition to the mean, one knew (only)\nthat the distribution is that of a sum of independent Bernoulli\nrv\'s. It may be more "natural" not to assume any such additional\nknowledge, in which case the max-entropy distribution would be\ngeometric rather than Poisson.\n\n--r.e.s.\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
> The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers
> is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed
> about the mean.
It would be Poisson if, in addition to the mean, one knew (only)
that the distribution is that of a sum of independent Bernoulli
rv's. It may be more "natural" not to assume any such additional
knowledge, in which case the max-entropy distribution would be
geometric rather than Poisson.
--r.e.s.
Bartosz Milewski
Apr13-04, 03:43 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE><rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote in message\nnews:c549nk\\$2nnh\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd. ie...\n\n> It would be incorrect to jump from there to the statement that there\n> was some process used to generate the number with the property that\n> the same process applied twice will produce a different number even\n> though nothing at all is different the second time around, except\n> the number produced.\n\nYet this is exactly what QM claims. For instance, take the following\nprocess:\nCreate a large number of muons and pass them through a filter that will\nselect particles in a particular state. Measure the time until such prepared\nmuon decays. You will get a different number every time. The theory claims\nthat this randomness happens not because there is a tiny clock ticking\ninside a muon whose initial condition cannot be measured (that would be a\nhidden variable), but because QM is inherently random.\n\nI doesn\'t matter whether it is technically feasible or not to create muons\nor other unstable elementary particles in a pure state, as long as QM\ndoesn\'t say it is impossible.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky><rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote in message
news:c549nk$2nnh$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie...
> It would be incorrect to jump from there to the statement that there
> was some process used to generate the number with the property that
> the same process applied twice will produce a different number even
> though nothing at all is different the second time around, except
> the number produced.
Yet this is exactly what QM claims. For instance, take the following
process:
Create a large number of muons and pass them through a filter that will
select particles in a particular state. Measure the time until such prepared
muon decays. You will get a different number every time. The theory claims
that this randomness happens not because there is a tiny clock ticking
inside a muon whose initial condition cannot be measured (that would be a
hidden variable), but because QM is inherently random.
I doesn't matter whether it is technically feasible or not to create muons
or other unstable elementary particles in a pure state, as long as QM
doesn't say it is impossible.
Patrick Powers
Apr13-04, 05:46 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c549nk\\$2nnh\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...\n > Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n>\n> >rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:\n> >> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n>\n> >>>There is no consistent definition of\n> >>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is\n> >>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.\n> >>\n> >> Please give the definition you claim exists.\n>\n> >Just to know what kind of answer you\'d be prepared to accept,\n> >please let me know what you regard as the definition of random\n> >binary numbers with equal probabilities of 0 and 1. Then I\'ll\n> >be able to answer your more difficult question satisfactorily.\n>\n> I never claimed that there was a consistent definition of\n> a random number at all; in fact, I would say that there isn\'t.\n> We might very well have a situation where we have incomplete\n> information about the value of a particular number, and in\n> such cases we use probability theory to reason about it.\n>\n> It would be incorrect to jump from there to the statement that there\n> was some process used to generate the number with the property that\n> the same process applied twice will produce a different number even\n> though nothing at all is different the second time around, except\n> the number produced. This is, approximately, what people mean when\n> they talk of randomness. If we suppose that some unknown difference\n> is responsible for producing a different number the second time,\n> then this is merely lack of knowledge and not randomness - that is,\n> it is a Bayesian interpretation.\n>\n> So my position is the following - the use of probability theory\n> is not required because of a property that the number we\n> wish to talk about has (ie randomness is not a property of\n> numbers themselves, and hence there is no such thing as a\n> random number). Neither is it required because of a property\n> of a method of producing those numbers (the "randomness"\n> property described in the above paragraph), and in fact I have\n> proven that probability theory is not something which tells\n> us about methods of generating numbers. I would say that\n> probability theory is required when we do not have sufficient\n> information to reason deductively, and that it expresses the\n> relationship between given information and possible values of\n> the number, where possible means not ruled out by the\n> information available.\n>\n> Instead of giving you a definition of a random number, I will\n> tell you that I would use probability if I did not know whether a\n> particular number was 0 or 1. Now you can let me know what\n> was the consistent definition you had in mind for "random uniformly\n> distributed real numbers between zero and one", when you claimed\n> that one existed.\n>\n> R.\n\n\nI hereby abandon discussion of frequentism and resort to the axioms of\nprobability. In this light, you are correct in believing that the\ngeneration of random numbers is not part of probability theory. In\nfact, randomness itself is not really part of probability theory,\nwhich is the theory of normed measure spaces. So in the bounds of\nprobability theory it perfectly all right to deny that random numbers\nexist.\n\nAs to a consistent definition of "randomly uniformly distributed real\nnumbers between zero and one", this is what Lebesque measure is all\nabout. You take all the sets with obvious measure like P[a<X<b]=b-a\nand combine them in obvious ways and show that the resulting sets have\nthe expected measure. The interesting, useful theorem is that the sum\nof countably many sets of measure zero is zero which makes it easy to\nprove (among other things) that the set of rationals in [0,1] is of\nmeasure zero. You take note of Cantor\'s clever construction of an\nuncountable set of measure zero. Once finished constructing Lebesque\nmeasure there remain exotic sets which have no defined measure, but it\ncan be proved that any attempt to avoid this makes things worse.\nRudin has nice treatments of this.\n\nThere IS a theory of pseudo-random numbers -- iterated functions that\ngenerate sequences of numbers that pass statistical tests of\nrandomness -- but this is part of number theory.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c549nk$2nnh$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...
> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>
> >rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:
> >> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>
> >>>There is no consistent definition of
> >>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is
> >>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.
> >>
> >> Please give the definition you claim exists.
>
> >Just to know what kind of answer you'd be prepared to accept,
> >please let me know what you regard as the definition of random
> >binary numbers with equal probabilities of and 1. Then I'll
> >be able to answer your more difficult question satisfactorily.
>
> I never claimed that there was a consistent definition of
> a random number at all; in fact, I would say that there isn't.
> We might very well have a situation where we have incomplete
> information about the value of a particular number, and in
> such cases we use probability theory to reason about it.
>
> It would be incorrect to jump from there to the statement that there
> was some process used to generate the number with the property that
> the same process applied twice will produce a different number even
> though nothing at all is different the second time around, except
> the number produced. This is, approximately, what people mean when
> they talk of randomness. If we suppose that some unknown difference
> is responsible for producing a different number the second time,
> then this is merely lack of knowledge and not randomness - that is,
> it is a Bayesian interpretation.
>
> So my position is the following - the use of probability theory
> is not required because of a property that the number we
> wish to talk about has (ie randomness is not a property of
> numbers themselves, and hence there is no such thing as a
> random number). Neither is it required because of a property
> of a method of producing those numbers (the "randomness"
> property described in the above paragraph), and in fact I have
> proven that probability theory is not something which tells
> us about methods of generating numbers. I would say that
> probability theory is required when we do not have sufficient
> information to reason deductively, and that it expresses the
> relationship between given information and possible values of
> the number, where possible means not ruled out by the
> information available.
>
> Instead of giving you a definition of a random number, I will
> tell you that I would use probability if I did not know whether a
> particular number was or 1. Now you can let me know what
> was the consistent definition you had in mind for "random uniformly
> distributed real numbers between zero and one", when you claimed
> that one existed.
>
> R.
I hereby abandon discussion of frequentism and resort to the axioms of
probability. In this light, you are correct in believing that the
generation of random numbers is not part of probability theory. In
fact, randomness itself is not really part of probability theory,
which is the theory of normed measure spaces. So in the bounds of
probability theory it perfectly all right to deny that random numbers
exist.
As to a consistent definition of "randomly uniformly distributed real
numbers between zero and one", this is what Lebesque measure is all
about. You take all the sets with obvious measure like P[a<X<b]=b-a
and combine them in obvious ways and show that the resulting sets have
the expected measure. The interesting, useful theorem is that the sum
of countably many sets of measure zero is zero which makes it easy to
prove (among other things) that the set of rationals in [0,1] is of
measure zero. You take note of Cantor's clever construction of an
uncountable set of measure zero. Once finished constructing Lebesque
measure there remain exotic sets which have no defined measure, but it
can be proved that any attempt to avoid this makes things worse.
Rudin has nice treatments of this.
There IS a theory of pseudo-random numbers -- iterated functions that
generate sequences of numbers that pass statistical tests of
randomness -- but this is part of number theory.
Daniel Waggoner
Apr13-04, 05:48 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>On Thu, 08 Apr 2004 18:26:49 +0000, Daryl McCullough wrote:\n\n> ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu says...\n>\n>>In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com >, Patrick\n>>Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:\n>>\n>>>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a\n>>>natural number at random\n>>\n>>>From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,\n>>with all natural numbers equally probable.\n>>\n>>Is this statement meant to be obvious? It\'s not at all clear to me how\n>>the axiom of choice says anything about probabilities.\n>>\n>>If it\'s not meant to be obvious, but is nonetheless true, can someone\n>>point me to an appropriate place to read more on this?\n>\n> I\'m cross-posting to sci.math, because maybe a mathematician has\n> something to add. Patrick\'s point is not complicated to prove, but it\'s\n> hard to understand how to interpret it.\n>\n> 1. Pick an enumeration of all positive rational numbers between 0 and 1.\n> For example, 1/2, 1/3, 2/3, 1/4, 3/4, 1/5, 2/5, 3/5, 4/5, ... Let q_n be\n> the nth rational number.\n>\n> 2. Define an equivalence relation on real numbers between 0 and 1: x ~~\n> y if and only if |x-y| is rational.\n>\n> 3. Using the axiom of choice, construct a set S by picking one element\n> out of every equivalence class.\n>\n> 4. Define S_n to be { x | |x - q_n| is in S }\n>\n> Note that S_0 union S_1 union S_2 union ... = (0,1).\n>\n> 5. So here\'s how you generate a random nonnegative integer: Generate a\n> random real x in (0,1), and let your random integer be that n such that\n> x is an element of S_n.\n>\n> There is no probability distribution on the possible outcomes of this\n> process, so it isn\'t a "uniform distribution on the integers" in a\n> measure-theoretic sense. But you can argue by symmetry that in some\n> sense every n is "equally likely" because each of the sets S_n are\n> identical, except for a translation.\n\nUnfortunately, S_n as defined above is not Lebesgue measurable. This\nmeans that it does not really make sense to ask the question, "What is the\nporbability that a uniform random variable lies in S_n?" I realize that\nthis is counterintuitive, but probability over uncountable sample spaces\nis tricky, precisely for these reasons.\n\nAs to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that\nprobability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability\nmeasure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."\nCountably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of\ndisjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n\nis equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly\nwant my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors\nargue that it is enough to be finitely additive. If one allows finitely\nadditive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure\nover the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,\nthe construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least\nsome large portion of the axiom of choice).\n\nDaniel Waggoner\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>On Thu, 08 Apr 2004 18:26:49 +0000, Daryl McCullough wrote:
> ebunn@lfa221051.richmond.edu says...
>
>>In article <9511688f.0403292028.2395c9d5@posting.google.com>, Patrick
>>Powers <frisbieinstein@yahoo.com> wrote:
>>
>>>Using the axioms of choice and infinity then one can indeed choose a
>>>natural number at random
>>
>>>From context, let me add "with a uniform distribution" -- that is,
>>with all natural numbers equally probable.
>>
>>Is this statement meant to be obvious? It's not at all clear to me how
>>the axiom of choice says anything about probabilities.
>>
>>If it's not meant to be obvious, but is nonetheless true, can someone
>>point me to an appropriate place to read more on this?
>
> I'm cross-posting to sci.math, because maybe a mathematician has
> something to add. Patrick's point is not complicated to prove, but it's
> hard to understand how to interpret it.
>
> 1. Pick an enumeration of all positive rational numbers between and 1.
> For example, 1/2, 1/3, 2/3, 1/4, 3/4, 1/5, 2/5, 3/5, 4/5, ... Let q_n be
> the nth rational number.
>
> 2. Define an equivalence relation on real numbers between and 1: x ~~
> y if and only if |x-y| is rational.
>
> 3. Using the axiom of choice, construct a set S by picking one element
> out of every equivalence class.
>
> 4. Define S_n to be { x | |x - q_n| is in S }
>
> Note that S_0 union S_1 union S_2 union ... = (0,1).
>
> 5. So here's how you generate a random nonnegative integer: Generate a
> random real x in (0,1), and let your random integer be that n such that
> x is an element of S_n.
>
> There is no probability distribution on the possible outcomes of this
> process, so it isn't a "uniform distribution on the integers" in a
> measure-theoretic sense. But you can argue by symmetry that in some
> sense every n is "equally likely" because each of the sets S_n are
> identical, except for a translation.
Unfortunately, S_n as defined above is not Lebesgue measurable. This
means that it does not really make sense to ask the question, "What is the
porbability that a uniform random variable lies in S_n?" I realize that
this is counterintuitive, but probability over uncountable sample spaces
is tricky, precisely for these reasons.
As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that
probability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability
measure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."
Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of
disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n
is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly
want my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors
argue that it is enough to be finitely additive. If one allows finitely
additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure
over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,
the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least
some large portion of the axiom of choice).
Daniel Waggoner
Patrick Powers
Apr13-04, 05:52 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>>\n> In fact, a process which produces uniformly distributed random real\n> numbers between zero and one can be modified so that it produces\n> uniformly distributed random positive integers in the following\n> way: Consider [0,1) as an additive group of reals modulo 1. Then\n> it has a subgroup, S, consisting of rational numbers in [0,1). Form\n> a set X by choosing one element from each coset of S in [0,1). Then\n> define X_r = {a+r mod 1 | a \\in X}, for each r in S. The X_r are\n> pairwise disjoint, pairwise congruent sets, with congruent meaning\n> they are related to each other by isometries of the group [0,1).\n> In that sense, they are as equiprobable as can be. Now if q is a\n> random number between 0 and 1, then it falls into exactly one X_r,\n> so there is a unique rational number, r, associated with that real\n> number, and since the rationals are countable, there is also a\n> unique positive integer associated with that real number. Since the\n> X_r\'s are congruent, no one can be any more or less likely than any\n> other, so no positive integer is any more or less likely than any\n> other to result from this process. Voila, we have a way to get a\n> "random" positive integer from a "random" real in [0,1).\n>\n\nThis heuristic argument is thought-provoking. To sharpen the results\nwe may attempt to assign a probability to the countably many sets X_r.\nWe encounter the classic dilemma of a normed measure space. If the\nmeasure of each set is zero then it seems the measure of [0,1) should\nalso be zero. If positive and the sets are equiprobable, then [0,1)\nwould tend to have unbounded measure. The canonical measure of\nprobability, Lebesque meausure, is no help since it simply throws up\nits hands and declares each X_r to be unmeasureable. It is not clear\nwhere to procede from here in constructing a suitable measure.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>>
> In fact, a process which produces uniformly distributed random real
> numbers between zero and one can be modified so that it produces
> uniformly distributed random positive integers in the following
> way: Consider [0,1) as an additive group of reals modulo 1. Then
> it has a subgroup, S, consisting of rational numbers in [0,1). Form
> a set X by choosing one element from each coset of S in [0,1). Then
> define X_r = {a+r mod 1 | a \in X}, for each r in S. The X_r are
> pairwise disjoint, pairwise congruent sets, with congruent meaning
> they are related to each other by isometries of the group [0,1).
> In that sense, they are as equiprobable as can be. Now if q is a
> random number between and 1, then it falls into exactly one X_r,
> so there is a unique rational number, r, associated with that real
> number, and since the rationals are countable, there is also a
> unique positive integer associated with that real number. Since the
> X_r's are congruent, no one can be any more or less likely than any
> other, so no positive integer is any more or less likely than any
> other to result from this process. Voila, we have a way to get a
> "random" positive integer from a "random" real in [0,1).
>
This heuristic argument is thought-provoking. To sharpen the results
we may attempt to assign a probability to the countably many sets X_r.
We encounter the classic dilemma of a normed measure space. If the
measure of each set is zero then it seems the measure of [0,1) should
also be zero. If positive and the sets are equiprobable, then [0,1)
would tend to have unbounded measure. The canonical measure of
probability, Lebesque meausure, is no help since it simply throws up
its hands and declares each X_r to be unmeasureable. It is not clear
where to procede from here in constructing a suitable measure.
rof@maths.tcd.ie
Apr13-04, 05:54 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:\n\n>You began with a criticism of frequentism. Frequentism is a\n>nuts-and-bolts area of mathematics intended for use by physicists,\n>statisticians, and the like. As such, it concerns itself with finite\n>processes, computable numbers, and limits. To use other tools to\n>attempt to invalidate such results is simply irrelevant: there is no\n>point in arguing about what tools are permissible, one simple chooses\n>one\'s arena and proceeds from there.\n\nYou are saying that we deal with finite sets in practice, when\nwe have our sleeves rolled up and are clutching a screwdriver,\nso we don\'t need an interpretation of probability theory that\ndeals with infinite sets. Ok; but that\'s your interpretation,\nand not everybody will be happy with it; somebody who spends more\ntime dealing with the axiom of choice than with nuts-and-bolts might\nnot, for example.\n\n>So this area of probability\n>theory indeed places limits on processes of generating random numbers.\n\nThat\'s not clear. The mere existence of a distribution over some\nset doesn\'t immediately tell me anything about the existence or\nnonexistence of processes selecting elements from that set. I can\nhave a uniform distribution over the set {0,1}; that doesn\'t\nfurnish me with a way to select one of those numbers "at random",\nand doesn\'t tell me that anybody else knows a way either. Similarly,\nthe nonexistence of a uniform normalised distribution over the\nintegers tells me nothing about whether somebody I meet tomorrow\nmight or might not start spouting random integers at me.\n\nThe real problem is that "finite processes, computable numbers and\nlimits" as you say, will never suffice to produce anything random;\nfor that you need a seed to the random number generator, or some\nunknown extra input which can serve as a seed, and you suppose that\nthat seed is already "random". Then your finite process argument\nmerely says that if we don\'t already have a random element of an\ninfinite set, we can\'t generate one, although we can generate\nelements of perhaps large finite sets given many seeds from smaller\nsets.\n\nR.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:
>You began with a criticism of frequentism. Frequentism is a
>nuts-and-bolts area of mathematics intended for use by physicists,
>statisticians, and the like. As such, it concerns itself with finite
>processes, computable numbers, and limits. To use other tools to
>attempt to invalidate such results is simply irrelevant: there is no
>point in arguing about what tools are permissible, one simple chooses
>one's arena and proceeds from there.
You are saying that we deal with finite sets in practice, when
we have our sleeves rolled up and are clutching a screwdriver,
so we don't need an interpretation of probability theory that
deals with infinite sets. Ok; but that's your interpretation,
and not everybody will be happy with it; somebody who spends more
time dealing with the axiom of choice than with nuts-and-bolts might
not, for example.
>So this area of probability
>theory indeed places limits on processes of generating random numbers.
That's not clear. The mere existence of a distribution over some
set doesn't immediately tell me anything about the existence or
nonexistence of processes selecting elements from that set. I can
have a uniform distribution over the set {0,1}; that doesn't
furnish me with a way to select one of those numbers "at random",
and doesn't tell me that anybody else knows a way either. Similarly,
the nonexistence of a uniform normalised distribution over the
integers tells me nothing about whether somebody I meet tomorrow
might or might not start spouting random integers at me.
The real problem is that "finite processes, computable numbers and
limits" as you say, will never suffice to produce anything random;
for that you need a seed to the random number generator, or some
unknown extra input which can serve as a seed, and you suppose that
that seed is already "random". Then your finite process argument
merely says that if we don't already have a random element of an
infinite set, we can't generate one, although we can generate
elements of perhaps large finite sets given many seeds from smaller
sets.
R.
Arnold Neumaier
Apr14-04, 03:17 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:\n> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n>\n>\n>>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:\n>>\n>>>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n>\n>\n>>>>There is no consistent definition of\n>>>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is\n>>>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.\n>>>\n>>>Please give the definition you claim exists.\n>\n>\n>>Just to know what kind of answer you\'d be prepared to accept,\n>>please let me know what you regard as the definition of random\n>>binary numbers with equal probabilities of 0 and 1. Then I\'ll\n>>be able to answer your more difficult question satisfactorily.\n>\n\n> So my position is the following - the use of probability theory\n> is not required because of a property that the number we\n> wish to talk about has (ie randomness is not a property of\n> numbers themselves, and hence there is no such thing as a\n> random number). Neither is it required because of a property\n> of a method of producing those numbers (the "randomness"\n> property described in the above paragraph), and in fact I have\n> proven that probability theory is not something which tells\n> us about methods of generating numbers. I would say that\n> probability theory is required when we do not have sufficient\n> information to reason deductively, and that it expresses the\n> relationship between given information and possible values of\n> the number, where possible means not ruled out by the\n> information available.\n>\n> Instead of giving you a definition of a random number, I will\n> tell you that I would use probability if I did not know whether a\n> particular number was 0 or 1. Now you can let me know what\n> was the consistent definition you had in mind for "random uniformly\n> distributed real numbers between zero and one", when you claimed\n> that one existed.\n\nWith such a vague concept of probability as you use, I cannot\nsatisfy your curiosity. Giving a formal definition requires that\nwe agree on a common basis, which is obviously not the case.\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:
> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>
>
>>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:
>>
>>>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>
>
>>>>There is no consistent definition of
>>>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is
>>>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.
>>>
>>>Please give the definition you claim exists.
>
>
>>Just to know what kind of answer you'd be prepared to accept,
>>please let me know what you regard as the definition of random
>>binary numbers with equal probabilities of and 1. Then I'll
>>be able to answer your more difficult question satisfactorily.
>
> So my position is the following - the use of probability theory
> is not required because of a property that the number we
> wish to talk about has (ie randomness is not a property of
> numbers themselves, and hence there is no such thing as a
> random number). Neither is it required because of a property
> of a method of producing those numbers (the "randomness"
> property described in the above paragraph), and in fact I have
> proven that probability theory is not something which tells
> us about methods of generating numbers. I would say that
> probability theory is required when we do not have sufficient
> information to reason deductively, and that it expresses the
> relationship between given information and possible values of
> the number, where possible means not ruled out by the
> information available.
>
> Instead of giving you a definition of a random number, I will
> tell you that I would use probability if I did not know whether a
> particular number was or 1. Now you can let me know what
> was the consistent definition you had in mind for "random uniformly
> distributed real numbers between zero and one", when you claimed
> that one existed.
With such a vague concept of probability as you use, I cannot
satisfy your curiosity. Giving a formal definition requires that
we agree on a common basis, which is obviously not the case.
Arnold Neumaier
Patrick Powers
Apr15-04, 02:57 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.co m>...\n> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that\n> probability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability\n> measure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."\n> Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of\n> disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n\n> is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly\n> want my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors\n> argue that it is enough to be finitely additive.\n\nIt seems to me that no countable probability space for which each\nelement has probability zero can have a countably additive meausure.\nBy a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful\ntheorem that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure\nzero. In the hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each\nsingleton set has measure zero. The integers are a countable union of\nsingleton sets. So a countably additive measure must have a measure\nof zero for the entire space and it fails to be a probability space.\n\n> If one allows finitely\n> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure\n> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,\n> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least\n> some large portion of the axiom of choice).\n>\n> Daniel Waggoner\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.com>...
> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that
> probability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability
> measure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."
> Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of
> disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n
> is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly
> want my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors
> argue that it is enough to be finitely additive.
It seems to me that no countable probability space for which each
element has probability zero can have a countably additive meausure.
By a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful
theorem that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure
zero. In the hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each
singleton set has measure zero. The integers are a countable union of
singleton sets. So a countably additive measure must have a measure
of zero for the entire space and it fails to be a probability space.
> If one allows finitely
> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure
> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,
> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least
> some large portion of the axiom of choice).
>
> Daniel Waggoner
Arnold Neumaier
Apr15-04, 11:34 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Patrick Powers wrote:\n> rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c549nk\\$2nnh\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...\n >\n>>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n>>\n>>>>>There is no consistent definition of\n>>>>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is\n>>>>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.\n>>>>\n>>>>Please give the definition you claim exists.\n>\n> I hereby abandon discussion of frequentism and resort to the axioms of\n> probability. In this light, you are correct in believing that the\n> generation of random numbers is not part of probability theory. In\n> fact, randomness itself is not really part of probability theory,\n> which is the theory of normed measure spaces. So in the bounds of\n> probability theory it perfectly all right to deny that random numbers\n> exist.\n\nNot at all.\n\nIn probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,\ni.e., a measurable function on the sigma algebra of measurable subsets\nof the set Omega of possible experiments.\n\nFor each experiment omega in Omega, x(omega) is a realization, i.e.,\nthe number drawn in this particular experiment.\n\nThe only thing not specified in probability\ntheory is the mechanism that draws the number, and hence there is no\nway to know which experiment omega has been realized. Probability\ntheory makes only statements about _all_ realizations simultaneously.\n\nGiven the axioms of probability theory, it is clear that a random\nvariable x such that\n<f(x)> = integral_0^1 f(s) ds\nfor all integrable functions f is a random number uniformly distributed\nbetween zero and one, and any x(omega) is a realization of it, i.e.,\nan actual number in [0,1].\n\nOn the other hand, there is no uniformly distributed random natural\nnumber since the uniform measure on natural numbers,\nmu(f) = integral dmu(k) f(k)\nis not normalizable.\n\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Patrick Powers wrote:
> rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c549nk$2nnh$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...
>
>>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>>
>>>>>There is no consistent definition of
>>>>>random, uniformly distributed positive integers, while there is
>>>>>one for random uniformly distributed real numbers between zero and one.
>>>>
>>>>Please give the definition you claim exists.
>
> I hereby abandon discussion of frequentism and resort to the axioms of
> probability. In this light, you are correct in believing that the
> generation of random numbers is not part of probability theory. In
> fact, randomness itself is not really part of probability theory,
> which is the theory of normed measure spaces. So in the bounds of
> probability theory it perfectly all right to deny that random numbers
> exist.
Not at all.
In probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,
i.e., a measurable function on the \sigma algebra of measurable subsets
of the set \Omega of possible experiments.
For each experiment \omega in \Omega, x(\omega) is a realization, i.e.,
the number drawn in this particular experiment.
The only thing not specified in probability
theory is the mechanism that draws the number, and hence there is no
way to know which experiment \omega has been realized. Probability
theory makes only statements about _all_ realizations simultaneously.
Given the axioms of probability theory, it is clear that a random
variable x such that
<f(x)> = integral_0^1 f(s) ds
for all integrable functions f is a random number uniformly distributed
between zero and one, and any x(\omega) is a realization of it, i.e.,
an actual number in [0,1].
On the other hand, there is no uniformly distributed random natural
number since the uniform measure on natural numbers,
\mu(f) = integral dmu(k) f(k)
is not normalizable.
Arnold Neumaier
rof@maths.tcd.ie
Apr19-04, 01:32 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:\n\n>Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.co m>...\n>> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that\n>> probability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability\n>> measure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."\n>> Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of\n>> disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n\n>> is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly\n>> want my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors\n>> argue that it is enough to be finitely additive.\n\n>It seems to me that no countable probability space for which each\n>element has probability zero can have a countably additive measure.\n>By a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful\n>theorem that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure\n>zero. In the hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each\n>singleton set has measure zero. The integers are a countable union of\n>singleton sets. So a countably additive measure must have a measure\n>of zero for the entire space and it fails to be a probability space.\n\nRight; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine\ninfinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability\n1/aleph_0 and everything would work out ok. Such number systems\nexist and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which\nties it to real numbers except its current formulation. We could\neven imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as\nequivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"\nseeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes\ngenerating numbers when we do probability.\n\n>> If one allows finitely\n>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure\n>> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,\n>> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least\n>> some large portion of the axiom of choice).\n\nDo you have a reference for this?\n\nR.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:
>Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.com>...
>> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that
>> probability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability
>> measure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."
>> Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of
>> disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n
>> is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly
>> want my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors
>> argue that it is enough to be finitely additive.
>It seems to me that no countable probability space for which each
>element has probability zero can have a countably additive measure.
>By a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful
>theorem that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure
>zero. In the hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each
>singleton set has measure zero. The integers are a countable union of
>singleton sets. So a countably additive measure must have a measure
>of zero for the entire space and it fails to be a probability space.
Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine
infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability
1/\aleph_0 and everything would work out ok. Such number systems
exist and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which
ties it to real numbers except its current formulation. We could
even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as
equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"
seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes
generating numbers when we do probability.
>> If one allows finitely
>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure
>> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,
>> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least
>> some large portion of the axiom of choice).
Do you have a reference for this?
R.
Patrick Powers
Apr19-04, 01:42 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote in message news:<c5ma22\\$1be\\$1@lfa222122.richmond.edu>...\ n> Patrick Powers wrote:\n> > rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c549nk\\$2nnh\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...\n \n> >\n> > I hereby abandon discussion of frequentism and resort to the axioms of\n> > probability. In this light, you are correct in believing that the\n> > generation of random numbers is not part of probability theory. In\n> > fact, randomness itself is not really part of probability theory,\n> > which is the theory of normed measure spaces. So in the bounds of\n> > probability theory it perfectly all right to deny that random numbers\n> > exist.\n>\n> Not at all.\n>\n> In probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,\n> i.e., a measurable function on the sigma algebra of measurable subsets\n> of the set Omega of possible experiments.\n>\n> For each experiment omega in Omega, x(omega) is a realization, i.e.,\n> the number drawn in this particular experiment.\n>\n> The only thing not specified in probability\n> theory is the mechanism that draws the number, and hence there is no\n> way to know which experiment omega has been realized. Probability\n> theory makes only statements about _all_ realizations simultaneously.\n>\n> Given the axioms of probability theory, it is clear that a random\n> variable x such that\n> <f(x)> = integral_0^1 f(s) ds\n> for all integrable functions f is a random number uniformly distributed\n> between zero and one, and any x(omega) is a realization of it, i.e.,\n> an actual number in [0,1].\n>\n> On the other hand, there is no uniformly distributed random natural\n> number since the uniform measure on natural numbers,\n> mu(f) = integral dmu(k) f(k)\n> is not normalizable.\n>\n>\n\nThank you for this post. I resorted to actually looking up the\nKolmogorov probabilty axioms. There are only three, and quite simple.\nThere is no mention of randomness at all. Indeed this is very much\nin the Hilbert spirit of axioms. He believed that axioms should not\nappeal to intuition, and stated that his axioms for geometry would be\nequally valid if the word "line" were replaced with "xasdaegvm". In\nthis spirit I contend that the concept of randomness is not essential\nfor probability theory.\n\nAs you note, a random variable is really a measureable function on a\nnormed measure space. The realization of a random variable is a\nrather tenuous concept because "probability theory makes only\nstatements about _all_ realizations simultaneously" so a single\nrealization is not part of this world. It is really about integrals\nover sets. I concur that the concept of the random number and the\nintuition therefrom are important and useful and confess to pedantry.\n(Not pederasty! Pedantry!)\n\nBy the way, countable additivity is the third axiom. So just as you\nsay, any uniform distribution over the integers is not part of the\nKolmogorov world.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote in message news:<c5ma22$1be$1@lfa222122.richmond.edu>...
> Patrick Powers wrote:
> > rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c549nk$2nnh$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...
> >
> > I hereby abandon discussion of frequentism and resort to the axioms of
> > probability. In this light, you are correct in believing that the
> > generation of random numbers is not part of probability theory. In
> > fact, randomness itself is not really part of probability theory,
> > which is the theory of normed measure spaces. So in the bounds of
> > probability theory it perfectly all right to deny that random numbers
> > exist.
>
> Not at all.
>
> In probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,
> i.e., a measurable function on the \sigma algebra of measurable subsets
> of the set \Omega of possible experiments.
>
> For each experiment \omega in \Omega, x(\omega) is a realization, i.e.,
> the number drawn in this particular experiment.
>
> The only thing not specified in probability
> theory is the mechanism that draws the number, and hence there is no
> way to know which experiment \omega has been realized. Probability
> theory makes only statements about _all_ realizations simultaneously.
>
> Given the axioms of probability theory, it is clear that a random
> variable x such that
> <f(x)> = integral_0^1 f(s) ds
> for all integrable functions f is a random number uniformly distributed
> between zero and one, and any x(\omega) is a realization of it, i.e.,
> an actual number in [0,1].
>
> On the other hand, there is no uniformly distributed random natural
> number since the uniform measure on natural numbers,
> \mu(f) = integral dmu(k) f(k)
> is not normalizable.
>
>
Thank you for this post. I resorted to actually looking up the
Kolmogorov probabilty axioms. There are only three, and quite simple.
There is no mention of randomness at all. Indeed this is very much
in the Hilbert spirit of axioms. He believed that axioms should not
appeal to intuition, and stated that his axioms for geometry would be
equally valid if the word "line" were replaced with "xasdaegvm". In
this spirit I contend that the concept of randomness is not essential
for probability theory.
As you note, a random variable is really a measureable function on a
normed measure space. The realization of a random variable is a
rather tenuous concept because "probability theory makes only
statements about _all_ realizations simultaneously" so a single
realization is not part of this world. It is really about integrals
over sets. I concur that the concept of the random number and the
intuition therefrom are important and useful and confess to pedantry.
(Not pederasty! Pedantry!)
By the way, countable additivity is the third axiom. So just as you
say, any uniform distribution over the integers is not part of the
Kolmogorov world.
Daniel Waggoner
Apr19-04, 02:07 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>On Thu, 15 Apr 2004 06:57:01 +0000, Patrick Powers wrote:\n\n> Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message\n> news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.co m>...\n>> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires\n>> that probability measures be countably additive, then there is on\n>> probability measure defined on the integers that I would want to label\n>> "uniform." Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable\n>> collection of disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the\n>> union of the A_n is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of\n>> the A_n. I certainly want my probability measures to be countably\n>> additive, but some authors argue that it is enough to be finitely\n>> additive.\n>\n> It seems to me that no countable probability space for which each\n> element has probability zero can have a countably additive meausure. By\n> a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful theorem\n> that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure zero. In the\n> hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each singleton set has\n> measure zero. The integers are a countable union of singleton sets. So\n> a countably additive measure must have a measure of zero for the entire\n> space and it fails to be a probability space.\n\nThis is exactly correct. Things get more interesting if we only require\nfinite additivity. It is possible to have a finitely additive probability\nmeasure on a countable set where the probability of each singleton is zero\nbut the probability of the entire set is one. This is possible because\ncountable collections of sets do not have to "add up" in probability.\nThere are some properties that a uniform probability measure on a\ncountable set must satisfy.\n\n1) The probability of any finite set is zero.\n2) The probability of any set with finite complement is one.\n\nThe problem, the place where the axiom of choice comes in, is in assiging\nprobabilities to infinite sets with infinite complements. For example,\nwhat is the probability of the even naturals? What is the probability of\nthe odd naturals? What is the probability of the positive powers of two?\nOne might argue (though I would not) that the probability of the first two\nis a half, but it is not so clear what the probability of the third should\nbe. Even if you could come up with a rule for assiging a probability to\nthis set, I could always come up with ever more complicated sets that your\nrule would not apply to. Also, in assigning probabilities, care must be\ntaken so that finite additivity is preserved. This is were the axiom of\nchoice comes in. It allows one to make the (uncountable number of)\nchoices of probabilities for infinite sets with infinite complements in a\nconsistent manner.\n\n\n>> If one allows finitely\n>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability\n>> measure over the natural numbers that some might want to label\n>> "uniform." However, the construction of this measure uses the the axiom\n>> of choice (or at least some large portion of the axiom of choice).\n>>\n>> Daniel Waggoner\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>On Thu, 15 Apr 2004 06:57:01 +0000, Patrick Powers wrote:
> Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message
> news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.com>...
>> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires
>> that probability measures be countably additive, then there is on
>> probability measure defined on the integers that I would want to label
>> "uniform." Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable
>> collection of disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the
>> union of the A_n is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of
>> the A_n. I certainly want my probability measures to be countably
>> additive, but some authors argue that it is enough to be finitely
>> additive.
>
> It seems to me that no countable probability space for which each
> element has probability zero can have a countably additive meausure. By
> a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful theorem
> that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure zero. In the
> hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each singleton set has
> measure zero. The integers are a countable union of singleton sets. So
> a countably additive measure must have a measure of zero for the entire
> space and it fails to be a probability space.
This is exactly correct. Things get more interesting if we only require
finite additivity. It is possible to have a finitely additive probability
measure on a countable set where the probability of each singleton is zero
but the probability of the entire set is one. This is possible because
countable collections of sets do not have to "add up" in probability.
There are some properties that a uniform probability measure on a
countable set must satisfy.
1) The probability of any finite set is zero.
2) The probability of any set with finite complement is one.
The problem, the place where the axiom of choice comes in, is in assiging
probabilities to infinite sets with infinite complements. For example,
what is the probability of the even naturals? What is the probability of
the odd naturals? What is the probability of the positive powers of two?
One might argue (though I would not) that the probability of the first two
is a half, but it is not so clear what the probability of the third should
be. Even if you could come up with a rule for assiging a probability to
this set, I could always come up with ever more complicated sets that your
rule would not apply to. Also, in assigning probabilities, care must be
taken so that finite additivity is preserved. This is were the axiom of
choice comes in. It allows one to make the (uncountable number of)
choices of probabilities for infinite sets with infinite complements in a
consistent manner.
>> If one allows finitely
>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability
>> measure over the natural numbers that some might want to label
>> "uniform." However, the construction of this measure uses the the axiom
>> of choice (or at least some large portion of the axiom of choice).
>>
>> Daniel Waggoner
Herman Rubin
Apr20-04, 02:34 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>In article <c5mli1\\$1c1e\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>, <rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote:\n>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:\n\n>>Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.co m>...\n>>> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that\n>>> probability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability\n>>> measure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."\n>>> Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of\n>>> disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n\n>>> is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly\n>>> want my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors\n>>> argue that it is enough to be finitely additive.\n\n>>It seems to me that no countable probability space for which each\n>>element has probability zero can have a countably additive measure.\n>>By a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful\n>>theorem that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure\n>>zero. In the hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each\n>>singleton set has measure zero. The integers are a countable union of\n>>singleton sets. So a countably additive measure must have a measure\n>>of zero for the entire space and it fails to be a probability space.\n\n>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine\n>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability\n>1/aleph_0 and everything would work out ok.\n\nWrong. In non-standard analysis, there exist\ninfinitesimals, but all of them are much smaller than\nanything looking like that. All non-standard positive\nintegers have at least as many smaller integers as there\nare ordinary real numbers. But they behave like finite\nintegers within the model.\n\nSuch number systems\n>exist and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which\n>ties it to real numbers except its current formulation.\n\nNon-standard models of the real numbers are much more\ndifferent from the usual ones than you seem to think,\nand are at the same time more similar.\n\nWe could\n>even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as\n>equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"\n>seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes\n>generating numbers when we do probability.\n\nThis is already the case in probability as we have it\nnow, but with random seeds being real numbers uniform\nbetween 0 and 1.\n\n>>> If one allows finitely\n>>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure\n>>> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,\n>>> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least\n>>> some large portion of the axiom of choice).\n\n>Do you have a reference for this?\n\nOne does not need much of the axiom of choice, but some\nis needed. If one only wants some of the sets to be\nmeasurable, nothing is needed; consider the field of\nsets which are periodic from some point on, and give\nit the limiting frequency. But what are you going to\ndo with it?\n\n\n\n--\nThis address is for information only. I do not claim that these views\nare those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University.\nHerman Rubin, Department of Statistics, Purdue University\nhrubin@stat.purdue.edu Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>In article <c5mli1$1c1e$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>, <rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote:
>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:
>>Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.com>...
>>> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that
>>> probability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability
>>> measure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."
>>> Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of
>>> disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n
>>> is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly
>>> want my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors
>>> argue that it is enough to be finitely additive.
>>It seems to me that no countable probability space for which each
>>element has probability zero can have a countably additive measure.
>>By a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful
>>theorem that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure
>>zero. In the hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each
>>singleton set has measure zero. The integers are a countable union of
>>singleton sets. So a countably additive measure must have a measure
>>of zero for the entire space and it fails to be a probability space.
>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine
>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability
>1/\aleph_0 and everything would work out ok.
Wrong. In non-standard analysis, there exist
infinitesimals, but all of them are much smaller than
anything looking like that. All non-standard positive
integers have at least as many smaller integers as there
are ordinary real numbers. But they behave like finite
integers within the model.
Such number systems
>exist and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which
>ties it to real numbers except its current formulation.
Non-standard models of the real numbers are much more
different from the usual ones than you seem to think,
and are at the same time more similar.
We could
>even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as
>equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"
>seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes
>generating numbers when we do probability.
This is already the case in probability as we have it
now, but with random seeds being real numbers uniform
between and 1.
>>> If one allows finitely
>>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure
>>> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,
>>> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least
>>> some large portion of the axiom of choice).
>Do you have a reference for this?
One does not need much of the axiom of choice, but some
is needed. If one only wants some of the sets to be
measurable, nothing is needed; consider the field of
sets which are periodic from some point on, and give
it the limiting frequency. But what are you going to
do with it?
--
This address is for information only. I do not claim that these views
are those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University.
Herman Rubin, Department of Statistics, Purdue University
hrubin@stat.purdue.edu Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558
Patrick Powers
Apr20-04, 02:35 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c5mli1\\$1c1e\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...\n > frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:\n>\n> >Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.co m>...\n> >> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that\n> >> probability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability\n> >> measure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."\n> >> Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of\n> >> disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n\n> >> is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly\n> >> want my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors\n> >> argue that it is enough to be finitely additive.\n>\n> >It seems to me that no countable probability space for which each\n> >element has probability zero can have a countably additive measure.\n> >By a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful\n> >theorem that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure\n> >zero. In the hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each\n> >singleton set has measure zero. The integers are a countable union of\n> >singleton sets. So a countably additive measure must have a measure\n> >of zero for the entire space and it fails to be a probability space.\n>\n> Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine\n> infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability\n> 1/aleph_0 and everything would work out ok. Such number systems\n> exist and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which\n> ties it to real numbers except its current formulation.\n\nActually measure theory can be applied to just about any set. Complex\nnumbers, vector spaces, groups, rings, topological spaces, and so\nforth are commonly used. I\'d be very much surprised if non-standard\nanalysis had never been applied.\n\n> We could\n> even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as\n> equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"\n> seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes\n> generating numbers when we do probability.\n>\n> >> If one allows finitely\n> >> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure\n> >> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,\n> >> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least\n> >> some large portion of the axiom of choice).\n>\n> Do you have a reference for this?\n>\n> R.\n\nFinitely Additive Measures on Groups and Rings\nwith M. Pasteka, R. Tichy and R. Winkler\nOn arbitrary topological groups a natural finitely additive measure\ncan be defined via compactifications. It is closely related to\nHartman\'s concept of uniform distribution on non-compact groups (cf.\nS. Hartman, Remarks on equidistribution on non-compact groups, Comp.\nMath. 16 (1964) 66-71). Applications to several situations are\npossible.\n\nSome results of M. Pasteka and other authors on uniform distribution\nwith respect to translation invariant finitely additive probability\nmeasures on Dedekind domains are transfered to more general\nsituations. Furthermore it is shown that the range of a polynomial of\ndegree >1 on a ring of algebraic integers has measure 0.\n\n---\nThere seems to be a fair amount of literature under "finitely additive\nmeasure".\n\nI also tried "non-Kolmogorov probability" and found some Russians\nrefuting the non-locality result of Bell\'s theorem using the p-adics\nto produce sets with negative probabilities. Humph.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c5mli1$1c1e$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...
> frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:
>
> >Daniel Waggoner <danielNowaggonerSpam@mindspring.com> wrote in message news:<pan.2004.04.10.18.56.39.293565@mindspring.com>...
> >> As to the original question about natural numbers. If one requires that
> >> probability measures be countably additive, then there is on probability
> >> measure defined on the integers that I would want to label "uniform."
> >> Countably additive means that if {A_n} is a countable collection of
> >> disjoint (measurable) sets, then the probability of the union of the A_n
> >> is equal to the sum of the probabilities of each of the A_n. I certainly
> >> want my probability measures to be countably additive, but some authors
> >> argue that it is enough to be finitely additive.
>
> >It seems to me that no countable probability space for which each
> >element has probability zero can have a countably additive measure.
> >By a countably additive measure we mean that we have the useful
> >theorem that a countable union of sets of measure zero has measure
> >zero. In the hypothesized uniform measure over the integers each
> >singleton set has measure zero. The integers are a countable union of
> >singleton sets. So a countably additive measure must have a measure
> >of zero for the entire space and it fails to be a probability space.
>
> Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine
> infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability
> 1/\aleph_0 and everything would work out ok. Such number systems
> exist and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which
> ties it to real numbers except its current formulation.
Actually measure theory can be applied to just about any set. Complex
numbers, vector spaces, groups, rings, topological spaces, and so
forth are commonly used. I'd be very much surprised if non-standard
analysis had never been applied.
> We could
> even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as
> equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"
> seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes
> generating numbers when we do probability.
>
> >> If one allows finitely
> >> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure
> >> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,
> >> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least
> >> some large portion of the axiom of choice).
>
> Do you have a reference for this?
>
> R.
Finitely Additive Measures on Groups and Rings
with M. Pasteka, R. Tichy and R. Winkler
On arbitrary topological groups a natural finitely additive measure
can be defined via compactifications. It is closely related to
Hartman's concept of uniform distribution on non-compact groups (cf.
S. Hartman, Remarks on equidistribution on non-compact groups, Comp.
Math. 16 (1964) 66-71). Applications to several situations are
possible.
Some results of M. Pasteka and other authors on uniform distribution
with respect to translation invariant finitely additive probability
measures on Dedekind domains are transfered to more general
situations. Furthermore it is shown that the range of a polynomial of
degree >1 on a ring of algebraic integers has measure .
---
There seems to be a fair amount of literature under "finitely additive
measure".
I also tried "non-Kolmogorov probability" and found some Russians
refuting the non-locality result of Bell's theorem using the p-adics
to produce sets with negative probabilities. Humph.
rof@maths.tcd.ie
Apr21-04, 04:25 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>hrubin@stat.purdue.edu (Herman Rubin) writes:\n\n>In article <c5mli1\\$1c1e\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>, <rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote:\n>>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:\n\n>>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine\n>>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability\n>>1/aleph_0 and everything would work out ok.\n\n>Wrong. In non-standard analysis, there exist\n>infinitesimals, but all of them are much smaller than\n>anything looking like that. All non-standard positive\n>integers have at least as many smaller integers as there\n>are ordinary real numbers. But they behave like finite\n>integers within the model.\n\nI was thinking of the surreals rather than the hyperreals;\nI believe they have well-defined multiplicative inverses for\nevery non-zero number (including aleph_0) along with the same\nrules of distributivity as real numbers. I\'m don\'t know\nvery much about this, but wouldn\'t that be sufficient?\n\n> We could\n>>even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as\n>>equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"\n>>seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes\n>>generating numbers when we do probability.\n\n>This is already the case in probability as we have it\n>now, but with random seeds being real numbers uniform\n>between 0 and 1.\n\nIf that were true there would be a distribution for my process which\ngenerates random integers, but there isn\'t.\n\n>>>> If one allows finitely\n>>>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure\n>>>> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,\n>>>> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least\n>>>> some large portion of the axiom of choice).\n\n>>Do you have a reference for this?\n\n>One does not need much of the axiom of choice, but some\n>is needed. If one only wants some of the sets to be\n>measurable, nothing is needed; consider the field of\n>sets which are periodic from some point on, and give\n>it the limiting frequency. But what are you going to\n>do with it?\n\nJust some of the sets being measurable isn\'t satisfying, but\nDaniel Waggoner has explained it in another post (thanks, Daniel).\n\nR.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>hrubin@stat.purdue.edu (Herman Rubin) writes:
>In article <c5mli1$1c1e$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>, <rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote:
>>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:
>>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine
>>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability
>>1/\aleph_0 and everything would work out ok.
>Wrong. In non-standard analysis, there exist
>infinitesimals, but all of them are much smaller than
>anything looking like that. All non-standard positive
>integers have at least as many smaller integers as there
>are ordinary real numbers. But they behave like finite
>integers within the model.
I was thinking of the surreals rather than the hyperreals;
I believe they have well-defined multiplicative inverses for
every non-zero number (including \aleph_0) along with the same
rules of distributivity as real numbers. I'm don't know
very much about this, but wouldn't that be sufficient?
> We could
>>even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as
>>equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"
>>seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes
>>generating numbers when we do probability.
>This is already the case in probability as we have it
>now, but with random seeds being real numbers uniform
>between and 1.
If that were true there would be a distribution for my process which
generates random integers, but there isn't.
>>>> If one allows finitely
>>>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure
>>>> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,
>>>> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least
>>>> some large portion of the axiom of choice).
>>Do you have a reference for this?
>One does not need much of the axiom of choice, but some
>is needed. If one only wants some of the sets to be
>measurable, nothing is needed; consider the field of
>sets which are periodic from some point on, and give
>it the limiting frequency. But what are you going to
>do with it?
Just some of the sets being measurable isn't satisfying, but
Daniel Waggoner has explained it in another post (thanks, Daniel).
R.
rof@maths.tcd.ie
Apr22-04, 03:29 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n\n>In probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,\n>i.e., a measurable function on the sigma algebra of measurable subsets\n>of the set Omega of possible experiments.\n\n>For each experiment omega in Omega, x(omega) is a realization, i.e.,\n>the number drawn in this particular experiment.\n\nThe formalism of probability theory is not in dispute. The\ninterpretation in terms of randomness is. I showed that a method\nof generating reals between zero and one can be modified to generate\nintegers instead, and further that if no one real is any more or\nless likely to be generated than any other, then the same holds for\nthe corresponding integers generated. The implication of this is\nthat statements which are commonly made within probability theory,\nof the sort "There is no process satisfying this or that", are *not*\nin fact statements about processes in the way that we think of them\n- processes generating uniformly distributed integers do in fact\nexist if we accept the axiom of choice, or at least they exist if\nprocesses generating uniformly distributed reals in [0,1) exist.\n\nR.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>In probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,
>i.e., a measurable function on the \sigma algebra of measurable subsets
>of the set \Omega of possible experiments.
>For each experiment \omega in \Omega, x(\omega) is a realization, i.e.,
>the number drawn in this particular experiment.
The formalism of probability theory is not in dispute. The
interpretation in terms of randomness is. I showed that a method
of generating reals between zero and one can be modified to generate
integers instead, and further that if no one real is any more or
less likely to be generated than any other, then the same holds for
the corresponding integers generated. The implication of this is
that statements which are commonly made within probability theory,
of the sort "There is no process satisfying this or that", are *not*
in fact statements about processes in the way that we think of them
- processes generating uniformly distributed integers do in fact
exist if we accept the axiom of choice, or at least they exist if
processes generating uniformly distributed reals in [0,1) exist.
R.
Arnold Neumaier
Apr22-04, 03:47 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Patrick Powers wrote:\n> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote in message news:<c5ma22\\$1be\\$1@lfa222122.richmond.edu>...\ n>\n>>Patrick Powers wrote:\n>>\n>>>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c549nk\\$2nnh\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...\n >\n>\n>>>I hereby abandon discussion of frequentism and resort to the axioms of\n>>>probability. In this light, you are correct in believing that the\n>>>generation of random numbers is not part of probability theory. In\n>>>fact, randomness itself is not really part of probability theory,\n>>>which is the theory of normed measure spaces. So in the bounds of\n>>>probability theory it perfectly all right to deny that random numbers\n>>>exist.\n>>\n>>Not at all.\n>>\n>>In probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,\n>>i.e., a measurable function on the sigma algebra of measurable subsets\n>>of the set Omega of possible experiments.\n>>\n>>For each experiment omega in Omega, x(omega) is a realization, i.e.,\n>>the number drawn in this particular experiment.\n>>\n>>The only thing not specified in probability\n>>theory is the mechanism that draws the number, and hence there is no\n>>way to know which experiment omega has been realized. Probability\n>>theory makes only statements about _all_ realizations simultaneously.\n>>\n>>Given the axioms of probability theory, it is clear that a random\n>>variable x such that\n>> <f(x)> = integral_0^1 f(s) ds\n>>for all integrable functions f is a random number uniformly distributed\n>>between zero and one, and any x(omega) is a realization of it, i.e.,\n>>an actual number in [0,1].\n>>\n>>On the other hand, there is no uniformly distributed random natural\n>>number since the uniform measure on natural numbers,\n>> mu(f) = integral dmu(k) f(k)\n>>is not normalizable.\n>>\n>>\n>\n>\n> Thank you for this post. I resorted to actually looking up the\n> Kolmogorov probabilty axioms. There are only three, and quite simple.\n> There is no mention of randomness at all. Indeed this is very much\n> in the Hilbert spirit of axioms. He believed that axioms should not\n> appeal to intuition, and stated that his axioms for geometry would be\n> equally valid if the word "line" were replaced with "xasdaegvm". In\n> this spirit I contend that the concept of randomness is not essential\n> for probability theory.\n>\n> As you note, a random variable is really a measureable function on a\n> normed measure space. The realization of a random variable is a\n> rather tenuous concept because "probability theory makes only\n> statements about _all_ realizations simultaneously" so a single\n> realization is not part of this world.\n\nBut it is permitted to talk about realizations, which are just\nfunction values f(omega). By giving a specific definition of the\nsigma algebra of interest, and specific recipes defining f(omega),\none has model worlds in which realizations make perfect sense.\nThe caveat is, of course, that for the real world, we do not have\nsuch a model.\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Patrick Powers wrote:
> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote in message news:<c5ma22$1be$1@lfa222122.richmond.edu>...
>
>>Patrick Powers wrote:
>>
>>>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote in message news:<c549nk$2nnh$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>...
>
>
>>>I hereby abandon discussion of frequentism and resort to the axioms of
>>>probability. In this light, you are correct in believing that the
>>>generation of random numbers is not part of probability theory. In
>>>fact, randomness itself is not really part of probability theory,
>>>which is the theory of normed measure spaces. So in the bounds of
>>>probability theory it perfectly all right to deny that random numbers
>>>exist.
>>
>>Not at all.
>>
>>In probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,
>>i.e., a measurable function on the \sigma algebra of measurable subsets
>>of the set \Omega of possible experiments.
>>
>>For each experiment \omega in \Omega, x(\omega) is a realization, i.e.,
>>the number drawn in this particular experiment.
>>
>>The only thing not specified in probability
>>theory is the mechanism that draws the number, and hence there is no
>>way to know which experiment \omega has been realized. Probability
>>theory makes only statements about _all_ realizations simultaneously.
>>
>>Given the axioms of probability theory, it is clear that a random
>>variable x such that
>> <f(x)> = integral_0^1 f(s) ds
>>for all integrable functions f is a random number uniformly distributed
>>between zero and one, and any x(\omega) is a realization of it, i.e.,
>>an actual number in [0,1].
>>
>>On the other hand, there is no uniformly distributed random natural
>>number since the uniform measure on natural numbers,
>> \mu(f) = integral dmu(k) f(k)
>>is not normalizable.
>>
>>
>
>
> Thank you for this post. I resorted to actually looking up the
> Kolmogorov probabilty axioms. There are only three, and quite simple.
> There is no mention of randomness at all. Indeed this is very much
> in the Hilbert spirit of axioms. He believed that axioms should not
> appeal to intuition, and stated that his axioms for geometry would be
> equally valid if the word "line" were replaced with "xasdaegvm". In
> this spirit I contend that the concept of randomness is not essential
> for probability theory.
>
> As you note, a random variable is really a measureable function on a
> normed measure space. The realization of a random variable is a
> rather tenuous concept because "probability theory makes only
> statements about _all_ realizations simultaneously" so a single
> realization is not part of this world.
But it is permitted to talk about realizations, which are just
function values f(\omega). By giving a specific definition of the
\sigma algebra of interest, and specific recipes defining f(\omega),
one has model worlds in which realizations make perfect sense.
The caveat is, of course, that for the real world, we do not have
such a model.
Arnold Neumaier
Herman Rubin
Apr22-04, 04:29 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>In article <c64730\\$2cgb\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>, <rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote:\n>hrubin@stat.purdue.edu (Herman Rubin) writes:\n\n>>In article <c5mli1\\$1c1e\\$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>, <rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote:\n>>>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:\n\n>>>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine\n>>>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability\n>>>1/aleph_0 and everything would work out ok.\n\n>>Wrong. In non-standard analysis, there exist\n>>infinitesimals, but all of them are much smaller than\n>>anything looking like that. All non-standard positive\n>>integers have at least as many smaller integers as there\n>>are ordinary real numbers. But they behave like finite\n>>integers within the model.\n\n>I was thinking of the surreals rather than the hyperreals;\n>I believe they have well-defined multiplicative inverses for\n>every non-zero number (including aleph_0) along with the same\n>rules of distributivity as real numbers. I\'m don\'t know\n>very much about this, but wouldn\'t that be sufficient?\n\nProbably not. They do not behave enough like the real\nnumbers for much to work.\n\n>> We could\n>>>even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as\n>>>equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"\n>>>seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes\n>>>generating numbers when we do probability.\n\n>>This is already the case in probability as we have it\n>>now, but with random seeds being real numbers uniform\n>>between 0 and 1.\n\n>If that were true there would be a distribution for my process which\n>generates random integers, but there isn\'t.\n\nHow can you generate such "random integers"?\n\n>>>>> If one allows finitely\n>>>>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure\n>>>>> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,\n>>>>> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least\n>>>>> some large portion of the axiom of choice).\n\n>>>Do you have a reference for this?\n\n>>One does not need much of the axiom of choice, but some\n>>is needed. If one only wants some of the sets to be\n>>measurable, nothing is needed; consider the field of\n>>sets which are periodic from some point on, and give\n>>it the limiting frequency. But what are you going to\n>>do with it?\n\n>Just some of the sets being measurable isn\'t satisfying, but\n>Daniel Waggoner has explained it in another post (thanks, Daniel).\n\n\n\n\n\n--\nThis address is for information only. I do not claim that these views\nare those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University.\nHerman Rubin, Department of Statistics, Purdue University\nhrubin@stat.purdue.edu Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>In article <c64730$2cgb$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>, <rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote:
>hrubin@stat.purdue.edu (Herman Rubin) writes:
>>In article <c5mli1$1c1e$1@lanczos.maths.tcd.ie>, <rof@maths.tcd.ie> wrote:
>>>frisbieinstein@yahoo.com (Patrick Powers) writes:
>>>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine
>>>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability
>>>1/\aleph_0 and everything would work out ok.
>>Wrong. In non-standard analysis, there exist
>>infinitesimals, but all of them are much smaller than
>>anything looking like that. All non-standard positive
>>integers have at least as many smaller integers as there
>>are ordinary real numbers. But they behave like finite
>>integers within the model.
>I was thinking of the surreals rather than the hyperreals;
>I believe they have well-defined multiplicative inverses for
>every non-zero number (including \aleph_0) along with the same
>rules of distributivity as real numbers. I'm don't know
>very much about this, but wouldn't that be sufficient?
Probably not. They do not behave enough like the real
numbers for much to work.
>> We could
>>>even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as
>>>equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"
>>>seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes
>>>generating numbers when we do probability.
>>This is already the case in probability as we have it
>>now, but with random seeds being real numbers uniform
>>between and 1.
>If that were true there would be a distribution for my process which
>generates random integers, but there isn't.
How can you generate such "random integers"?
>>>>> If one allows finitely
>>>>> additive probability measures, then one can defined a probability measure
>>>>> over the natural numbers that some might want to label "uniform." However,
>>>>> the construction of this measure uses the the axiom of choice (or at least
>>>>> some large portion of the axiom of choice).
>>>Do you have a reference for this?
>>One does not need much of the axiom of choice, but some
>>is needed. If one only wants some of the sets to be
>>measurable, nothing is needed; consider the field of
>>sets which are periodic from some point on, and give
>>it the limiting frequency. But what are you going to
>>do with it?
>Just some of the sets being measurable isn't satisfying, but
>Daniel Waggoner has explained it in another post (thanks, Daniel).
--
This address is for information only. I do not claim that these views
are those of the Statistics Department or of Purdue University.
Herman Rubin, Department of Statistics, Purdue University
hrubin@stat.purdue.edu Phone: (765)494-6054 FAX: (765)494-0558
Ralph Hartley
Apr22-04, 04:30 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Patrick Powers wrote:\n> rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:\n\n>>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine\n>>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability\n>>1/aleph_0 and everything would work out ok. Such number systems\n>>exist and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which\n>>ties it to real numbers except its current formulation.\n>\n> Actually measure theory can be applied to just about any set. Complex\n> numbers, vector spaces, groups, rings, topological spaces, and so\n> forth are commonly used.\n\nYou can define measures on any set, but I don\'t think that\'s what he means.\n\nHe wants to consider measures taking *values* in a field larger than R. For\ninstance you might want to consider Surreal valued measures. (according to\nanother message that that *is* what he is thinking of).\n\nThen you could have a countably additive measure on the integers that\nassigns each integer a probability 1/omega. There are omega integers so\nthat measure is normalized. A finite subset of the integers with N members\nwould have probability N/omega (which in the surreals is different from 0\nand from 1/omega).\n\nOf course, that still doesn\'t give a good definition of "a randomly chosen\ninteger," but it might give a definition of "a (well behaved) function of a\nrandomly chosen integer." So you might be able to give a consistent meaning\nto the sentence "The probability that a randomly chosen integer is even is\n1/2." (for the measure given above it is true)\n\nYou need to be careful though! Integration, and limits in general, are\ntricky in the Surreals, because of the gaps.\n\nQuantum Mechanics (to get back to physics) can be formulated in terms of\nmeasures taking different sorts of values (complex numbers, operators,\netc.), so you would think that someone would have worked all this out, but\nI haven\'t seen it.\n\nRalph Hartley\n\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Patrick Powers wrote:
> rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:
>>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine
>>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability
>>1/\aleph_0 and everything would work out ok. Such number systems
>>exist and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which
>>ties it to real numbers except its current formulation.
>
> Actually measure theory can be applied to just about any set. Complex
> numbers, vector spaces, groups, rings, topological spaces, and so
> forth are commonly used.
You can define measures on any set, but I don't think that's what he means.
He wants to consider measures taking *values* in a field larger than R. For
instance you might want to consider Surreal valued measures. (according to
another message that that *is* what he is thinking of).
Then you could have a countably additive measure on the integers that
assigns each integer a probability 1/\omega. There are \omega integers so
that measure is normalized. A finite subset of the integers with N members
would have probability N/\omega (which in the surreals is different from
and from 1/\omega).
Of course, that still doesn't give a good definition of "a randomly chosen
integer," but it might give a definition of "a (well behaved) function of a
randomly chosen integer." So you might be able to give a consistent meaning
to the sentence "The probability that a randomly chosen integer is even is
1/2." (for the measure given above it is true)
You need to be careful though! Integration, and limits in general, are
tricky in the Surreals, because of the gaps.
Quantum Mechanics (to get back to physics) can be formulated in terms of
measures taking different sorts of values (complex numbers, operators,
etc.), so you would think that someone would have worked all this out, but
I haven't seen it.
Ralph Hartley
Arnold Neumaier
Apr24-04, 12:16 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:\n> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:\n>\n>\n>>In probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,\n>>i.e., a measurable function on the sigma algebra of measurable subsets\n>>of the set Omega of possible experiments.\n>\n>\n>>For each experiment omega in Omega, x(omega) is a realization, i.e.,\n>>the number drawn in this particular experiment.\n>\n>\n> The formalism of probability theory is not in dispute. The\n> interpretation in terms of randomness is. I showed that a method\n> of generating reals between zero and one can be modified to generate\n> integers instead, and further that if no one real is any more or\n> less likely to be generated than any other, then the same holds for\n> the corresponding integers generated.\n\nThis is not conclusive. Without a formal probability model, the notion\nof \'any more likely\' does not make sense. If you have a uniform random\nnumber generator in [0,1] genrating and you transform the results x you\nget by some function phi, the phi(x) are generally no longer uniformly\ndistributed.\n\nA uniform distribution of integers would have to be one in which\nthe conditional probability that you draw i given that you know already\nthat i in [1:N] should be 1/N for all i. This requires\nPr(i)=Pr(i|[1:N])*Pr([1:N])=Pr([1:N])/N independent of i,\nhence Pr(i)=p is constant, so that the sum of all probabilities diverges\ninstead of being 1.\n\nBy a similar reasoning one sees that in any fixed probability\ndistribution, sufficiently large integers are extremely unlikely.\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:
> Arnold Neumaier <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> writes:
>
>
>>In probability theory, a random number is just a random variable x,
>>i.e., a measurable function on the \sigma algebra of measurable subsets
>>of the set \Omega of possible experiments.
>
>
>>For each experiment \omega in \Omega, x(\omega) is a realization, i.e.,
>>the number drawn in this particular experiment.
>
>
> The formalism of probability theory is not in dispute. The
> interpretation in terms of randomness is. I showed that a method
> of generating reals between zero and one can be modified to generate
> integers instead, and further that if no one real is any more or
> less likely to be generated than any other, then the same holds for
> the corresponding integers generated.
This is not conclusive. Without a formal probability model, the notion
of 'any more likely' does not make sense. If you have a uniform random
number generator in [0,1] genrating and you transform the results x you
get by some function \phi, the \phi(x) are generally no longer uniformly
distributed.
A uniform distribution of integers would have to be one in which
the conditional probability that you draw i given that you know already
that i in [1:N] should be 1/N for all i. This requires
Pr(i)=Pr(i|[1:N])*Pr([1:N])=Pr([1:N])/N independent of i,
hence Pr(i)=p is constant, so that the sum of all probabilities diverges
instead of being 1.
By a similar reasoning one sees that in any fixed probability
distribution, sufficiently large integers are extremely unlikely.
Arnold Neumaier
rof@maths.tcd.ie
Apr24-04, 12:17 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>hrubin@stat.purdue.edu (Herman Rubin) writes:\n\n>>> We could\n>>>>even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as\n>>>>equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"\n>>>>seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes\n>>>>generating numbers when we do probability.\n\n>>>This is already the case in probability as we have it\n>>>now, but with random seeds being real numbers uniform\n>>>between 0 and 1.\n\n>>If that were true there would be a distribution for my process which\n>>generates random integers, but there isn\'t.\n\n>How can you generate such "random integers"?\n\nThe original description is at:\nhttp://groups.google.com/groups?selm=c3njd0%24295l%241%40lanczos.maths.tcd. ie\n\nBasically, [0,1) can be expressed as a countable disjoint union of\nsets which are images of each other under translations (with a\nwraparound at 1). Given that translations are isometries, the sets\nare "the same size" and any seed in [0,1) falls into exactly one\nof these sets, which can be put into correspondence with a positive\ninteger, since the number of sets involved is countable. The sets\naren\'t measurable, which is why there\'s no corresponding distribution\nover the integers.\n\nR.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>hrubin@stat.purdue.edu (Herman Rubin) writes:
>>> We could
>>>>even imagine a formal definition of probability distributions as
>>>>equivalence classes of algorithms for producing numbers from "random"
>>>>seeds. Then we could honestly claim to be talking about processes
>>>>generating numbers when we do probability.
>>>This is already the case in probability as we have it
>>>now, but with random seeds being real numbers uniform
>>>between and 1.
>>If that were true there would be a distribution for my process which
>>generates random integers, but there isn't.
>How can you generate such "random integers"?
The original description is at:
http://groups.google.com/groups?selm=c3njd0%24295l%241%40lanczos.maths.tcd. ie
Basically, [0,1) can be expressed as a countable disjoint union of
sets which are images of each other under translations (with a
wraparound at 1). Given that translations are isometries, the sets
are "the same size" and any seed in [0,1) falls into exactly one
of these sets, which can be put into correspondence with a positive
integer, since the number of sets involved is countable. The sets
aren't measurable, which is why there's no corresponding distribution
over the integers.
R.
Daniel Waggoner
Apr27-04, 02:40 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>On Thu, 22 Apr 2004 20:30:57 +0000, Ralph Hartley wrote:\n\n> Patrick Powers wrote:\n>> rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:\n>\n>>>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine\n>>>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability\n>>>1/aleph_0 and everything would work out ok. Such number systems exist\n>>>and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which ties it to\n>>>real numbers except its current formulation.\n>>\n>> Actually measure theory can be applied to just about any set. Complex\n>> numbers, vector spaces, groups, rings, topological spaces, and so forth\n>> are commonly used.\n>\n> You can define measures on any set, but I don\'t think that\'s what he\n> means.\n>\n> He wants to consider measures taking *values* in a field larger than R.\n> For instance you might want to consider Surreal valued measures.\n> (according to another message that that *is* what he is thinking of).\n>\n> Then you could have a countably additive measure on the integers that\n> assigns each integer a probability 1/omega. There are omega integers so\n> that measure is normalized. A finite subset of the integers with N\n> members would have probability N/omega (which in the surreals is\n> different from 0 and from 1/omega).\n>\n> Of course, that still doesn\'t give a good definition of "a randomly\n> chosen integer," but it might give a definition of "a (well behaved)\n> function of a randomly chosen integer." So you might be able to give a\n> consistent meaning to the sentence "The probability that a randomly\n> chosen integer is even is 1/2." (for the measure given above it is true)\n\nI don\'t see why, from the definition given above, the probability that a\nrandomly chosen integer is even is 1/2. I assume that you want to use the\nproperty that the probability of the union of a countable number of\ndisjoint sets is equal to the sum of the individual probabilities. I am\nnot an expert on the surreals, but I suspect that infinite sums of\nsurreals are even more tricky that in the standard reals.\n\nIf one attempted to define infinite sums via limits, then in the order\ntopology on the surreals the sequence n/omega cannot converge to 1/2, or\nany other positive standard real for that matter. It may the the case\nthat one could use a different topology to define the convergence of an\ninfinite sequence or that infinite sums could be defined in a completely\ndifferent manner, but I am skeptical that a rigorous argument for the\nabove claims could be given. In particular, how could the countable sum\nof 1/omega be different if we count by twos instead of by ones!\n\n\n> You need to be careful though! Integration, and limits in general, are\n> tricky in the Surreals, because of the gaps.\n>\n> Quantum Mechanics (to get back to physics) can be formulated in terms of\n> measures taking different sorts of values (complex numbers, operators,\n> etc.), so you would think that someone would have worked all this out,\n> but I haven\'t seen it.\n>\n> Ralph Hartley\n\nDaniel Waggoner\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>On Thu, 22 Apr 2004 20:30:57 +0000, Ralph Hartley wrote:
> Patrick Powers wrote:
>> rof@maths.tcd.ie wrote:
>
>>>Right; the problem would be solved if our number system had genuine
>>>infinitesimals. Then each integer could be assigned a probability
>>>1/\aleph_0 and everything would work out ok. Such number systems exist
>>>and there is nothing inherent in probability theory which ties it to
>>>real numbers except its current formulation.
>>
>> Actually measure theory can be applied to just about any set. Complex
>> numbers, vector spaces, groups, rings, topological spaces, and so forth
>> are commonly used.
>
> You can define measures on any set, but I don't think that's what he
> means.
>
> He wants to consider measures taking *values* in a field larger than R.
> For instance you might want to consider Surreal valued measures.
> (according to another message that that *is* what he is thinking of).
>
> Then you could have a countably additive measure on the integers that
> assigns each integer a probability 1/\omega. There are \omega integers so
> that measure is normalized. A finite subset of the integers with N
> members would have probability N/\omega (which in the surreals is
> different from and from 1/\omega).
>
> Of course, that still doesn't give a good definition of "a randomly
> chosen integer," but it might give a definition of "a (well behaved)
> function of a randomly chosen integer." So you might be able to give a
> consistent meaning to the sentence "The probability that a randomly
> chosen integer is even is 1/2." (for the measure given above it is true)
I don't see why, from the definition given above, the probability that a
randomly chosen integer is even is 1/2. I assume that you want to use the
property that the probability of the union of a countable number of
disjoint sets is equal to the sum of the individual probabilities. I am
not an expert on the surreals, but I suspect that infinite sums of
surreals are even more tricky that in the standard reals.
If one attempted to define infinite sums via limits, then in the order
topology on the surreals the sequence n/\omega cannot converge to 1/2, or
any other positive standard real for that matter. It may the the case
that one could use a different topology to define the convergence of an
infinite sequence or that infinite sums could be defined in a completely
different manner, but I am skeptical that a rigorous argument for the
above claims could be given. In particular, how could the countable sum
of 1/\omega be different if we count by twos instead of by ones!
> You need to be careful though! Integration, and limits in general, are
> tricky in the Surreals, because of the gaps.
>
> Quantum Mechanics (to get back to physics) can be formulated in terms of
> measures taking different sorts of values (complex numbers, operators,
> etc.), so you would think that someone would have worked all this out,
> but I haven't seen it.
>
> Ralph Hartley
Daniel Waggoner
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>"r.e.s." <r.s@ZZmindspring.com> wrote ...\n> "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n>\n> > The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers\n> > is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed\n> > about the mean.\n>\n> It would be Poisson if, in addition to the mean, one knew (only)\n> that the distribution is that of a sum of independent Bernoulli\n> rv\'s. It may be more "natural" not to assume any such additional\n> knowledge, in which case the max-entropy distribution would be\n> geometric rather than Poisson.\n\nI would like to state that more precisely ...\n\nThe maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained\nonly to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It\'s a shifted\nversion of the usual geometric distribution if 0 is included in the\nnaturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels\nthat are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)\n\nEven if more than the mean is known, the Poisson distribution still\ndoesn\'t arise if the additional constraints are all just mean values\nof various functions (e.g. higher moments). If A denotes the Poisson\ndistribution with mean m, then Entropy(A) = sup{Entropy(B): B in S},\nwhere S is the set of distributions of mean-m sums of finitely-many\nindependent Bernoulli rv\'s. (A isn\'t in S, but it is the limit of a\nsequence in S.)\n\n--r.e.s.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>"r.e.s." <r.s@ZZmindspring.com> wrote ...
> "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
>
> > The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers
> > is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed
> > about the mean.
>
> It would be Poisson if, in addition to the mean, one knew (only)
> that the distribution is that of a sum of independent Bernoulli
> rv's. It may be more "natural" not to assume any such additional
> knowledge, in which case the max-entropy distribution would be
> geometric rather than Poisson.
I would like to state that more precisely ...
The maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained
only to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It's a shifted
version of the usual geometric distribution if is included in the
naturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels
that are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)
Even if more than the mean is known, the Poisson distribution still
doesn't arise if the additional constraints are all just mean values
of various functions (e.g. higher moments). If A denotes the Poisson
distribution with mean m, then Entropy(A) = sup{Entropy(B): B in S},
where S is the set of distributions of mean-m sums of finitely-many
independent Bernoulli rv's. (A isn't in S, but it is the limit of a
sequence in S.)
--r.e.s.
Arnold Neumaier
Apr28-04, 06:11 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>\nr.e.s. wrote:\n> "r.e.s." <r.s@ZZmindspring.com> wrote ...\n>\n>>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n>>\n>>\n>>>The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers\n>>>is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed\n>>>about the mean.\n>>\n>>It would be Poisson if, in addition to the mean, one knew (only)\n>>that the distribution is that of a sum of independent Bernoulli\n>>rv\'s. It may be more "natural" not to assume any such additional\n>>knowledge, in which case the max-entropy distribution would be\n>>geometric rather than Poisson.\n>\n>\n> I would like to state that more precisely ...\n>\n> The maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained\n> only to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It\'s a shifted\n> version of the usual geometric distribution if 0 is included in the\n> naturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels\n> that are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)\n\nThe maximum entropy solution\nS(rho)= <-rho(x)> = min!\nfor a distribution with density rho(x) depends on whether we define\ndensities rho of a random natural number x by\n<f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)\nor\n<f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)/n!\ncorresponding to different choices of priors.\n\nThe first (your) choice gives rho(n) = Pr(n), while the second (my)\nchoice is more useful in most circumstances I came across. For example,\nit is the right prior in statistical mechanics of systems with\nindefinite number n of particles (\'correct Boltzmann counting\').\n\nOne of the problems of the Bayesian approach is that one always\nneeds a prior before information theoretic arguments make sense.\nIf there is doubt about the former the results become doubtful, too.\n\nIn particular, information theory in statistical mechanics works\nout correctly _only_ if one used the right prior (mine).\nThat the prior is objectively determined is strange for a subjective\napproach as the information theoretic one, and casts doubt on the\nrelevance of information theory in the foundations.\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>r.e.s. wrote:
> "r.e.s." <r.s@ZZmindspring.com> wrote ...
>
>>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
>>
>>
>>>The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers
>>>is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed
>>>about the mean.
>>
>>It would be Poisson if, in addition to the mean, one knew (only)
>>that the distribution is that of a sum of independent Bernoulli
>>rv's. It may be more "natural" not to assume any such additional
>>knowledge, in which case the max-entropy distribution would be
>>geometric rather than Poisson.
>
>
> I would like to state that more precisely ...
>
> The maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained
> only to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It's a shifted
> version of the usual geometric distribution if is included in the
> naturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels
> that are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)
The maximum entropy solution
S(\rho)= <-\rho(x)> = min!
for a distribution with density \rho(x) depends on whether we define
densities \rho of a random natural number x by
<f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)
or
<f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)/n!
corresponding to different choices of priors.
The first (your) choice gives \rho(n) = Pr(n), while the second (my)
choice is more useful in most circumstances I came across. For example,
it is the right prior in statistical mechanics of systems with
indefinite number n of particles ('correct Boltzmann counting').
One of the problems of the Bayesian approach is that one always
needs a prior before information theoretic arguments make sense.
If there is doubt about the former the results become doubtful, too.
In particular, information theory in statistical mechanics works
out correctly _only_ if one used the right prior (mine).
That the prior is objectively determined is strange for a subjective
approach as the information theoretic one, and casts doubt on the
relevance of information theory in the foundations.
Arnold Neumaier
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n> r.e.s. wrote:\n\n> >>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n> >>>The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers\n> >>>is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed\n> >>>about the mean.\n\n> > The maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained\n> > only to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It\'s a shifted\n> > version of the usual geometric distribution if 0 is included in the\n> > naturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels\n> > that are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)\n>\n> The maximum entropy solution\n> S(rho)= <-rho(x)> = min!\n^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\n?\n> for a distribution with density rho(x) depends on whether we define\n> densities rho of a random natural number x by\n> <f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)\n> or\n> <f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)/n! \n> corresponding to different choices of priors.\n\nI\'m not sure what was intended, but your mention of priors suggests\nthat perhaps you meant to write the "relative entropy":\nS(rho)= <log(rho(x)/p(x)> = min!\nwhere the expectation is wrt probability density rho(), and p() is a\nprior probability density -- but then the minus sign is out of place.\n\nIn any case, something else is amiss, for contradicts the stated\nassumption that rho() is a probability density; that is,\n ==> <1> = sum_n rho(n)/n! = 1, contradicting sum_n rho(n) = 1\n-- the latter being required of rho() as a probability density.)\n\nWould you mind stating explicitly the prior probability density\nthat you intend as corresponding to ?\n\n\n> The first (your) choice gives rho(n) = Pr(n), while the second (my)\n> choice is more useful in most circumstances I came across.\n-snip-\n\nIf one wants to consider prior states, it\'s not hard to see that\nin the present case the geometric distribution is a limiting\nmin-relative-entropy result for a sequence of uniform priors on\n{0,...,n-1}, as n -> oo. NB: The min-relative-entropy distributions\ncorresponding to these priors approach a limit distribution, namely\ngeometric, even though the priors themselves do not have a limit\ndistribution (there being no uniform distribution on the naturals).\n\nHowever, the original point remains independent of priors ...\nIf a Poisson distribution and a geometric distribution on the same\nset have the same mean, then the geometric distribution necessarily\nhas greater Shannon entropy than does the Poisson distribution. A\nreasonable interpretation of this is that the geometric distribution\nrepresents a state of knowledge that incorporates less information\nthan does a state corresponding to the Poisson, *regardless* of how\nthose states come about.\n\n--r.e.s.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
> r.e.s. wrote:
> >>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
> >>>The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers
> >>>is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed
> >>>about the mean.
> > The maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained
> > only to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It's a shifted
> > version of the usual geometric distribution if is included in the
> > naturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels
> > that are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)
>
> The maximum entropy solution
> S(\rho)= <-\rho(x)> = min!
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
?
> for a distribution with density \rho(x) depends on whether we define
> densities \rho of a random natural number x by
> <f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)
> or
> <f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)/n!
> corresponding to different choices of priors.
I'm not sure what was intended, but your mention of priors suggests
that perhaps you meant to write the "relative entropy":
S(\rho)= <log(\rho(x)/p(x)> = min!
where the expectation is wrt probability density \rho(), and p() is a
prior probability density -- but then the minus sign is out of place.
In any case, something else is amiss, for contradicts the stated
assumption that \rho() is a probability density; that is,
==> <1> = sum_n \rho(n)/n! = 1, contradicting sum_n \rho(n) = 1
-- the latter being required of \rho() as a probability density.)
Would you mind stating explicitly the prior probability density
that you intend as corresponding to ?
> The first (your) choice gives \rho(n) = Pr(n), while the second (my)
> choice is more useful in most circumstances I came across.
-snip-
If one wants to consider prior states, it's not hard to see that
in the present case the geometric distribution is a limiting
min-relative-entropy result for a sequence of uniform priors on
{0,...,n-1}, as n -> oo. NB: The min-relative-entropy distributions
corresponding to these priors approach a limit distribution, namely
geometric, even though the priors themselves do not have a limit
distribution (there being no uniform distribution on the naturals).
However, the original point remains independent of priors ...
If a Poisson distribution and a geometric distribution on the same
set have the same mean, then the geometric distribution necessarily
has greater Shannon entropy than does the Poisson distribution. A
reasonable interpretation of this is that the geometric distribution
represents a state of knowledge that incorporates less information
than does a state corresponding to the Poisson, *regardless* of how
those states come about.
--r.e.s.
Arnold Neumaier
Apr30-04, 08:04 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>\nr.e.s. wrote:\n> "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n>\n>>r.e.s. wrote:\n>\n>>>>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n>>>>\n>>>>>The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers\n>>>>>is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed\n>>>>>about the mean.\n>\n>>>The maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained\n>>>only to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It\'s a shifted\n>>>version of the usual geometric distribution if 0 is included in the\n>>>naturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels\n>>>that are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)\n>>\n>>The maximum entropy solution\n>> S(rho)= <-rho(x)> = min!\n\nSorry, I meant\nS(rho)= <-log(rho(x))> = max!\nI must have been quite tired when I wrote this.\n\n\n>>for a distribution with density rho(x) depends on whether we define\n>>densities rho of a random natural number x by\n>> <f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)\n>>or\n>> <f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)/n! \n>>corresponding to different choices of priors.\n>\n>\n> I\'m not sure what was intended, but your mention of priors suggests\n> that perhaps you meant to write the "relative entropy":\n> S(rho)= <log(rho(x)/p(x)> = min!\n> where the expectation is wrt probability density rho(), and p() is a\n> prior probability density -- but then the minus sign is out of place.\n\nThis is an almost equivalent formulation. See below.\n\n\n> In any case, something else is amiss, for contradicts the stated\n> assumption that rho() is a probability density; that is,\n> ==> <1> = sum_n rho(n)/n! = 1, contradicting sum_n rho(n) = 1\n> -- the latter being required of rho() as a probability density.)\n\nNo - probability densities and probabilities are distinct notions.\nFrom (*) you can see that the probaility to get n is\np_n = rho(n)/n!\n\n> However, the original point remains independent of priors ...\n> If a Poisson distribution and a geometric distribution on the same\n> set have the same mean, then the geometric distribution necessarily\n> has greater Shannon entropy than does the Poisson distribution.\n\nYes.\n\n\n> A reasonable interpretation of this is that the geometric distribution\n> represents a state of knowledge that incorporates less information\n> than does a state corresponding to the Poisson, *regardless* of how\n> those states come about.\n\nYou only proved that it incorporates less \'Shannon entropy\'.\nBut the identification of \'information\' and \'Shannon entropy\' is\ndubious for situations with infinitely many alternatives.\nShannon assumes in his analysis that in the absence of knowledge,\nall alternatives are equally likely, which makes no sense\nin the infinite case (and may even be debated in the finite case).\n\n\nHere is a more careful setting that should explain our differences:\n\n\nFor a probability distribution on a finite set of alternatives,\ngiven by probabilities p_n summing to 1, the Shannon entropy is\ndefined by\nS = - sum p_n log_2 p_n.\nThe main use of the entropy concept is the maximum entropy principle,\nused to define various interesting ensembles by maximizing the entropy\nsubject to constraints defined by known expectation values\n<f> = sum P_n f(n)\nfor certain key observables f.\n\nIf the number of alternatives is infinite, this formula must be\nappropriately generalized. In the literature, one finds various\npossibilities, the most common being, for random vectors with\nprobability density p(x), the absolute entropy\nS = - k_B integral dx p(x) log p(x)\nwith the Boltzmann constant k_B and Lebesgue measure dx.\nThe value of the Boltzmann constant k_B is conventional and has no\neffect on the use of entropy in applications.\nThere is also the relative entropy\nS = - k_B integral dx p(x) log (p(x)/p_0(x)),\nwhich involves an arbitrary positive function p_0(x). If p_0(x)\nis a probability density then the relative entropy is nonnegative.\n\nFor a probability distribution over an _arbitrary_ sigma algebra,\nthe absolute entropy makes no sense since there is no distinguished\nmeasure and hence no probability density. Thus one needs to assume a\nmeasure to be able to define a probability density (namely as the\nRadon-Nikodym derivative, assuming it exists). This measure is\ncalled the prior (it is often improper = not normalizable).\nOnce one has specified a prior dmu,\n<f(x)> = integral dmu(x) rho(x) f(x)\ndefines the density rho(x), and then\nS(rho)= <-k_B log(rho(x))>\ndefines the entropy with respect to this prior. Note that the\ncondition for rho to define a probability density is\nintegral dmu(x) rho(x) = <1> = 1.\n\nIn many cases, symmetry considerations suggest a unique natural prior.\nFor random variables on a homogeneous space, the conventional measure\nis the invariant Haar measure. In particular, for probability theory\nof finitely many alternatives, it is conventional to consider the\nsymmetric group on the set of alternatives and take as the prior the\nuniform measure, giving\n<f(x)> = sum_x rho(x) f(x).\nThe density rho(x) agrees with the probability p_x, and the\ncorresponding entropy is the Shannon entropy is one takes k_B=1/log2.\n\nFor random variables whose support is R or R^n, the conventional\nsymmetry group is the translation group, and the corresponding\n(improper) prior is the Lebesgue measure. In this case one obtains\nthe absolute entropy given above. But one could also take as prior\na noninvariant measure\ndmu(x) = dx p_0(x);\nthen the density becomes rho(x)=p(x)/p_0(x), and one arrives at the\nrelative entropy.\n\nIf there is no natural transitive symmetry group, there is no natural\nprior, and one has to make other useful choices. In particular, this\nis the case for random natural numbers.\n\nChoice A. Treating the natural numbers as a limiting situation of\nfinite interval [0:n] suggests to use the measure with\nintegral dmu(x) phi(x) = sum_n phi(n)\nas (improper) prior, making\n<f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)\nthe definition of the density; in this case, p_n=rho(n) is the\nprobability of getting n.\n\nChoice B. Statistical mechanics suggests to use instead the measure\nwith\nintegral dmu(x) phi(x) = sum_n phi(n)/n!\nas prior, making\n<f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)/n!\nthe definition of the density; in this case, p_n=rho(n)/n! is the\nprobability of getting n.\n\nThe maximum entropy ensemble defined by given expectations depends on\nthe prior chosen. In particular, if the mean of a random natural number\nis given, choice A leads to a geometric distribution, while\nchoice B leads to a Poisson distribution. The latter is the one\nrelevant for statistical mechanics. Indeed, choice B is the prior\nneeded in statistical mechanics of systems with an indefinite\nnumber n of particles to get the correct Boltzmann counting in the\ngrand canonical ensemble. With choice A, the maximum entropy\nsolution is unrelated to the distributions arising in statistical\nmechanics.\n\n\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>r.e.s. wrote:
> "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
>
>>r.e.s. wrote:
>
>>>>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
>>>>
>>>>>The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers
>>>>>is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed
>>>>>about the mean.
>
>>>The maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained
>>>only to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It's a shifted
>>>version of the usual geometric distribution if is included in the
>>>naturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels
>>>that are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)
>>
>>The maximum entropy solution
>> S(\rho)= <-\rho(x)> = min!
Sorry, I meant
S(\rho)= <-log(\rho(x))> = max!
I must have been quite tired when I wrote this.
>>for a distribution with density \rho(x) depends on whether we define
>>densities \rho of a random natural number x by
>> <f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)
>>or
>> <f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)/n!
>>corresponding to different choices of priors.
>
>
> I'm not sure what was intended, but your mention of priors suggests
> that perhaps you meant to write the "relative entropy":
> S(\rho)= <log(\rho(x)/p(x)> = min!
> where the expectation is wrt probability density \rho(), and p() is a
> prior probability density -- but then the minus sign is out of place.
This is an almost equivalent formulation. See below.
> In any case, something else is amiss, for contradicts the stated
> assumption that \rho() is a probability density; that is,
> ==> <1> = sum_n \rho(n)/n! = 1, contradicting sum_n \rho(n) = 1
> -- the latter being required of \rho() as a probability density.)
No -[/itex] probability densities and probabilities are distinct notions.
From (*) you can see that the probaility to get n is
[itex]p_n = \rho(n)/n!
> However, the original point remains independent of priors ...
> If a Poisson distribution and a geometric distribution on the same
> set have the same mean, then the geometric distribution necessarily
> has greater Shannon entropy than does the Poisson distribution.
Yes.
> A reasonable interpretation of this is that the geometric distribution
> represents a state of knowledge that incorporates less information
> than does a state corresponding to the Poisson, *regardless* of how
> those states come about.
You only proved that it incorporates less 'Shannon entropy'.
But the identification of 'information' and 'Shannon entropy' is
dubious for situations with infinitely many alternatives.
Shannon assumes in his analysis that in the absence of knowledge,
all alternatives are equally likely, which makes no sense
in the infinite case (and may even be debated in the finite case).
Here is a more careful setting that should explain our differences:
For a probability distribution on a finite set of alternatives,
given by probabilities p_n summing to 1, the Shannon entropy is
defined by
S = - sum p_n log_2 p_n.
The main use of the entropy concept is the maximum entropy principle,
used to define various interesting ensembles by maximizing the entropy
subject to constraints defined by known expectation values
<f> = sum P_n f(n)
for certain key observables f.
If the number of alternatives is infinite, this formula must be
appropriately generalized. In the literature, one finds various
possibilities, the most common being, for random vectors with
probability density p(x), the absolute entropy
S = - k_B integral dx p(x) log p(x)
with the Boltzmann constant k_B and Lebesgue measure dx.
The value of the Boltzmann constant k_B is conventional and has no
effect on the use of entropy in applications.
There is also the relative entropy
S = - k_B integral dx p(x) log (p(x)/p_0(x)),
which involves an arbitrary positive function p_0(x). If p_0(x)
is a probability density then the relative entropy is nonnegative.
For a probability distribution over an _arbitrary_ \sigma algebra,
the absolute entropy makes no sense since there is no distinguished
measure and hence no probability density. Thus one needs to assume a
measure to be able to define a probability density (namely as the
Radon-Nikodym derivative, assuming it exists). This measure is
called the prior (it is often improper = not normalizable).
Once one has specified a prior dmu,
<f(x)> = integral dmu(x) \rho(x) f(x)
defines the density \rho(x), and then
S(\rho)= <-k_B log(\rho(x))>
defines the entropy with respect to this prior. Note that the
condition for \rho to define a probability density is
integral dmu(x) \rho(x) = <1> = 1.
In many cases, symmetry considerations suggest a unique natural prior.
For random variables on a homogeneous space, the conventional measure
is the invariant Haar measure. In particular, for probability theory
of finitely many alternatives, it is conventional to consider the
symmetric group on the set of alternatives and take as the prior the
uniform measure, giving
<f(x)> = sum_x \rho(x) f(x).
The density \rho(x) agrees with the probability p_x, and the
corresponding entropy is the Shannon entropy is one takes k_B=1/log2.
For random variables whose support is R or R^n, the conventional
symmetry group is the translation group, and the corresponding
(improper) prior is the Lebesgue measure. In this case one obtains
the absolute entropy given above. But one could also take as prior
a noninvariant measure
dmu(x) = dx p_0(x);
then the density becomes \rho(x)=p(x)/p_0(x), and one arrives at the
relative entropy.
If there is no natural transitive symmetry group, there is no natural
prior, and one has to make other useful choices. In particular, this
is the case for random natural numbers.
Choice A. Treating the natural numbers as a limiting situation of
finite interval [0:n] suggests to use the measure with
integral dmu(x) \phi(x) = sum_n \phi(n)
as (improper) prior, making
<f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)
the definition of the density; in this case, p_n=\rho(n) is the
probability of getting n.
Choice B. Statistical mechanics suggests to use instead the measure
with
integral dmu(x) \phi(x) = sum_n \phi(n)/n!
as prior, making
<f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)/n!
the definition of the density; in this case, p_n=\rho(n)/n! is the
probability of getting n.
The maximum entropy ensemble defined by given expectations depends on
the prior chosen. In particular, if the mean of a random natural number
is given, choice A leads to a geometric distribution, while
choice B leads to a Poisson distribution. The latter is the one
relevant for statistical mechanics. Indeed, choice B is the prior
needed in statistical mechanics of systems with an indefinite
number n of particles to get the correct Boltzmann counting in the
grand canonical ensemble. With choice A, the maximum entropy
solution is unrelated to the distributions arising in statistical
mechanics.
Arnold Neumaier
Ralph Hartley
May1-04, 08:52 AM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>Daniel Waggoner wrote:\n> Ralph Hartley wrote:\n\n>>Then you could have a countably additive measure on the integers that\n>>assigns each integer a probability 1/omega. There are omega integers so\n>>that measure is normalized. A finite subset of the integers with N\n>>members would have probability N/omega (which in the surreals is\n>>different from 0 and from 1/omega).\n>>\n>>it might give a definition of "a (well behaved)\n>>function of a randomly chosen integer." So you might be able to give a\n>>consistent meaning to the sentence "The probability that a randomly\n>>chosen integer is even is 1/2." (for the measure given above it is true)\n>\n> I don\'t see why, from the definition given above, the probability that a\n> randomly chosen integer is even is 1/2.\n\nActually I rather doubt that I have uniquely described a measure. But given\nsuch a measure it is at least a meaningful statement, and it is defined to\nbe true if the measure of the set of even integers is 1/2.\n\nWhen I said:\n>> There are omega integers\n\nThat was a bit of a fib. The number of integers is a Cardinal, and numbers\nlike omega and omega/2 are Surreals. Cardinals can be viewed as equivalence\nclasses of Surreals with omega and omega/2 in the same class. So just\nsaying that the measure of a set of size S is S/omega does not uniquely\ndescribe a measure.\n\n> I assume that you want to use the\n> property that the probability of the union of a countable number of\n> disjoint sets is equal to the sum of the individual probabilities. I am\n> not an expert on the surreals, but I suspect that infinite sums of\n> surreals are even more tricky that in the standard reals.\n\nThat is so, and limits are worse. One might *define* sums in terms of a\nmeasure, with the requirement that sums that *do* converge have the "right"\nvalue.\n\n> but I am skeptical that a rigorous argument for the\n> above claims could be given.\n\nI have claimed nothing. I said you might be able to do something\nconsistent, but I certainly haven\'t done it! But I haven\'t seen a proof\nthat it can\'t be done either.\n\n> In particular, how could the countable sum\n> of 1/omega be different if we count by twos instead of by ones!\n\nOne has twice as many terms as the other, though both are countably\ninfinite. Of course, this isn\'t the normal way of describing of the size of\na set, and I don\'t know if it can be made to make sense.\n\nRalph Hartley\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>Daniel Waggoner wrote:
> Ralph Hartley wrote:
>>Then you could have a countably additive measure on the integers that
>>assigns each integer a probability 1/\omega. There are \omega integers so
>>that measure is normalized. A finite subset of the integers with N
>>members would have probability N/\omega (which in the surreals is
>>different from and from 1/\omega).
>>
>>it might give a definition of "a (well behaved)
>>function of a randomly chosen integer." So you might be able to give a
>>consistent meaning to the sentence "The probability that a randomly
>>chosen integer is even is 1/2." (for the measure given above it is true)
>
> I don't see why, from the definition given above, the probability that a
> randomly chosen integer is even is 1/2.
Actually I rather doubt that I have uniquely described a measure. But given
such a measure it is at least a meaningful statement, and it is defined to
be true if the measure of the set of even integers is 1/2.
When I said:
>> There are \omega integers
That was a bit of a fib. The number of integers is a Cardinal, and numbers
like \omega and \omega/2 are Surreals. Cardinals can be viewed as equivalence
classes of Surreals with \omega and \omega/2 in the same class. So just
saying that the measure of a set of size S is S/\omega does not uniquely
describe a measure.
> I assume that you want to use the
> property that the probability of the union of a countable number of
> disjoint sets is equal to the sum of the individual probabilities. I am
> not an expert on the surreals, but I suspect that infinite sums of
> surreals are even more tricky that in the standard reals.
That is so, and limits are worse. One might *define* sums in terms of a
measure, with the requirement that sums that *do* converge have the "right"
value.
> but I am skeptical that a rigorous argument for the
> above claims could be given.
I have claimed nothing. I said you might be able to do something
consistent, but I certainly haven't done it! But I haven't seen a proof
that it can't be done either.
> In particular, how could the countable sum
> of 1/\omega be different if we count by twos instead of by ones!
One has twice as many terms as the other, though both are countably
infinite. Of course, this isn't the normal way of describing of the size of
a set, and I don't know if it can be made to make sense.
Ralph Hartley
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n> r.e.s. wrote:\n> > "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n> >>r.e.s. wrote:\n> >>>>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n> >>>>\n> >>>>>The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers\n> >>>>>is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed\n> >>>>>about the mean.\n> >\n> >>>The maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained\n> >>>only to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It\'s a shifted\n> >>>version of the usual geometric distribution if 0 is included in the\n> >>>naturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels\n> >>>that are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)\n> >>\n> >>The maximum entropy solution\n\n> S(rho)= <-log(rho(x))> = max!\n\n> >>for a distribution with density rho(x) depends on whether\n> >>we define densities rho of a random natural number x by\n> >> <f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n) [A]\n> >>or\n> >> <f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)/n! [B]\n> >>corresponding to different choices of priors.\n<snip>\n\nWithout the measure-theoretic framework, it was difficult to see\nwhat was meant, so thanks for the detailed explanation below. Yes,\nof course constrained maximization of\n- integral dmu(x) rho(x) log(rho(x)) [1]\nleads to different densities rho with respect to the two different\nmeasures mu, which in the present problem can be characterized by\ntheir behavior on the singleton sets {n} (n in {0,1,2,...}):\n\n(A) mu_A({n}) = 1\n(B) mu_B({n}) = 1/n!\n\nJaynes\' "finite sets policy" (see below) might help to see why\n(A) is the correct choice here.\n\n\n> > However, the original point remains independent of priors ...\n> > If a Poisson distribution and a geometric distribution on the same\n> > set have the same mean, then the geometric distribution necessarily\n> > has greater Shannon entropy than does the Poisson distribution.\n>\n> Yes.\n>\n> > A reasonable interpretation of this is that the geometric distribution\n> > represents a state of knowledge that incorporates less information\n> > than does a state corresponding to the Poisson, *regardless* of how\n> > those states come about.\n>\n> You only proved that it incorporates less \'Shannon entropy\'.\n> But the identification of \'information\' and \'Shannon entropy\' is\n> dubious for situations with infinitely many alternatives.\n> Shannon assumes in his analysis that in the absence of knowledge,\n> all alternatives are equally likely, which makes no sense\n> in the infinite case (and may even be debated in the finite case).\n\nIt\'s wise to distrust pat answers in the infinite case, but in the\n**finite** case, the question has been effectively settled, IMO.\nIn the simplest version, if one must assign "state of knowledge"\nprobabilities concerning just two alternatives, any nonuniform\nassignment clearly represents information that favors one of the\ntwo alternatives. The same reasoning extends to other finite sets,\nor you could appeal to an invariance argument such as you mention\nbelow.\n\nFor distributions on *infinite* spaces, it\'s useful to consider\nJaynes\' "finite sets policy". His last book was published\nposthumously, and the following is from a pre-publication version:\n\n"Our conclusion -- based on some forty years of mathematical\nefforts and experience with real problems -- is that, at least\nin probability theory, an infinite set should be thought of\nonly as the limit of a specific (i.e. unambiguously specified)\nsequence of finite sets. Likewise, an improper pdf has meaning\nonly as the limit of a well-defined sequence of proper pdf\'s.\n... Indeed, experience to date shows that almost any attempt\nto depart from our recommended `finite sets\' policy has the\npotentiality for generating a paradox, in which two equally\nvalid methods of reasoning lead us to contradictory results."\n\n(He devoted an entire chapter to illustrating how errors easily\narise when this policy is not followed.)\n\nIf we apply a finite-sets policy to the present problem, together\nwith your view of mu as a prior, then we should choose which of\nthe two priors, mu_A or mu_B, represents the least information\nwhen the basic set is finite, say {0,...,n-1}, and no other\ninformation is given (since these are *prior* to any such). Both\nmeasures are then normalizable, mu_A being a uniform probability\ndistribution and mu_B being a particular Poisson probability\ndistribution, both restricted to the finite space.\n\nBut in each of the finite cases, any nonuniform distribution cannot\npossibly be the least informative one; rather, a uniform\ndistribution is seen to be inescapable for each of the finite sets\n{0,...,n-1}. Consequently, the constrained maximizations [1] on\nthese finite sets produce a sequence of geometric distributions\nconverging to the geometric distribution on the infinite set.\n\nI admit, though, that in the statistical mechanics of many-particle\nsystems, there might be physical justifications for a Poisson prior\nto represent some kind of information before the mean value is\nspecified -- e.g. to get the \'correct Boltzmann counting\' that you\nmention. But there is no such physical context in the present\nproblem. (I had cited the Boltzmann distribution only to give a\nfamiliar example that formally can reduce to a geometric.)\n\n\n> Here is a more careful setting that should explain our differences:\n>\n> For a probability distribution on a finite set of alternatives,\n> given by probabilities p_n summing to 1, the Shannon entropy is\n> defined by\n> S = - sum p_n log_2 p_n.\n> The main use of the entropy concept is the maximum entropy principle,\n> used to define various interesting ensembles by maximizing the entropy\n> subject to constraints defined by known expectation values\n> <f> = sum P_n f(n)\n> for certain key observables f.\n>\n> If the number of alternatives is infinite, this formula must be\n> appropriately generalized. In the literature, one finds various\n> possibilities, the most common being, for random vectors with\n> probability density p(x), the absolute entropy\n> S = - k_B integral dx p(x) log p(x)\n> with the Boltzmann constant k_B and Lebesgue measure dx.\n> The value of the Boltzmann constant k_B is conventional and has no\n> effect on the use of entropy in applications.\n> There is also the relative entropy\n> S = - k_B integral dx p(x) log (p(x)/p_0(x)),\n> which involves an arbitrary positive function p_0(x). If p_0(x)\n> is a probability density then the relative entropy is nonnegative.\n^^^^^^^^^^^\nNo, it won\'t be nonnegative. Relative entropy by your definition\nis non*positive*. Suppose P, Q are probability measures with\nP << m, Q << m for positive measure m. Then the Radon-Nikodym\nderivatives satisfy\n\nintegral dm (dP/dm) log( (dP/dm)/(dQ/dm) ) >= 0\n\nwhich provides the more usual definition of relative entropy.\nOf course, maximizing your nonpositive quantity leads to the\nsame results as minimizing the nonnegative one.\n\n\n> For a probability distribution over an _arbitrary_ sigma algebra,\n> the absolute entropy makes no sense since there is no distinguished\n> measure and hence no probability density. Thus one needs to assume a\n> measure to be able to define a probability density (namely as the\n> Radon-Nikodym derivative, assuming it exists). This measure is\n> called the prior (it is often improper = not normalizable).\n> Once one has specified a prior dmu,\n> <f(x)> = integral dmu(x) rho(x) f(x)\n> defines the density rho(x), and then\n> S(rho)= <-k_B log(rho(x))>\n> defines the entropy with respect to this prior. Note that the\n> condition for rho to define a probability density is\n> integral dmu(x) rho(x) = <1> = 1.\n>\n> In many cases, symmetry considerations suggest a unique natural prior.\n> For random variables on a homogeneous space, the conventional measure\n> is the invariant Haar measure. In particular, for probability theory\n> of finitely many alternatives, it is conventional to consider the\n> symmetric group on the set of alternatives and take as the prior the\n> uniform measure, giving\n> <f(x)> = sum_x rho(x) f(x).\n> The density rho(x) agrees with the probability p_x, and the\n> corresponding entropy is the Shannon entropy is one takes k_B=1/log2.\n\nOf course the above argument acquires special significance\nif a comprehensive finite-sets policy can be implemented.\n\n\n> For random variables whose support is R or R^n, the conventional\n> symmetry group is the translation group, and the corresponding\n> (improper) prior is the Lebesgue measure. In this case one obtains\n> the absolute entropy given above. But one could also take as prior\n> a noninvariant measure\n> dmu(x) = dx p_0(x);\n> then the density becomes rho(x)=p(x)/p_0(x), and one arrives at the\n> relative entropy.\n\nOK, but as mentioned above, this \'relative entropy\' is nonpositive.\n\n\n> If there is no natural transitive symmetry group, there is no natural\n> prior, and one has to make other useful choices. In particular, this\n> is the case for random natural numbers.\n\nIf we adopt a finite-sets policy, together with your view of the\nmeasure mu as a prior, the above is shown to be a non sequitur.\nThe reason you don\'t see the natural prior is that you\'re not\nexamining the priors in terms of their representative sequences\non *finite* spaces.\n\n\n> Choice A. Treating the natural numbers as a limiting situation of\n> finite interval [0:n] suggests to use the measure with\n> integral dmu(x) phi(x) = sum_n phi(n)\n> as (improper) prior, making\n> <f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)\n> the definition of the density; in this case, p_n=rho(n) is the\n> probability of getting n.\n>\n> Choice B. Statistical mechanics suggests to use instead the measure\n> with\n> integral dmu(x) phi(x) = sum_n phi(n)/n!\n> as prior,\n\nSo mu_B({n}) = 1/n! (n in {0,1,2,...}),\nwhich normalizes to a Poisson distribution with mean 1.\n\n\n> making\n> <f(x)> = sum_n rho(n) f(n)/n!\n> the definition of the density; in this case, p_n=rho(n)/n! is the\n> probability of getting n.\n>\n> The maximum entropy ensemble defined by given expectations depends on\n> the prior chosen. In particular, if the mean of a random natural number\n> is given, choice A leads to a geometric distribution, while\n> choice B leads to a Poisson distribution. The latter is the one\n> relevant for statistical mechanics. Indeed, choice B is the prior\n> needed in statistical mechanics of systems with an indefinite\n> number n of particles to get the correct Boltzmann counting in the\n> grand canonical ensemble. With choice A, the maximum entropy\n> solution is unrelated to the distributions arising in statistical\n> mechanics.\n\nThe present problem is not about the statistical mechanics of a\nmany-particle system, so it seems hard to justify forcing the\nprior to be Poisson by reference to \'correct Boltzmann counting\'.\n\n--r.e.s.\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
> r.e.s. wrote:
> > "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
> >>r.e.s. wrote:
> >>>>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
> >>>>
> >>>>>The natural least informative distribution on natural numbers
> >>>>>is a Poisson distribution, but here one has to be at least informed
> >>>>>about the mean.
> >
> >>>The maximum-entropy distribution on the natural numbers, constrained
> >>>only to have a given mean, is geometric, not Poisson. (It's a shifted
> >>>version of the usual geometric distribution if is included in the
> >>>naturals. This is just the Boltzmann distribution for energy-levels
> >>>that are the natural numbers scaled by an appropriate constant.)
> >>
> >>The maximum entropy solution
> S(\rho)= <-log(\rho(x))> = max!
> >>for a distribution with density \rho(x) depends on whether
> >>we define densities \rho of a random natural number x by
> >> <f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n) [A]
> >>or
> >> <f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)/n! [B]
> >>corresponding to different choices of priors.
<snip>
Without the measure-theoretic framework, it was difficult to see
what was meant, so thanks for the detailed explanation below. Yes,
of course constrained maximization of
- integral dmu(x) \rho(x) log(\rho(x)) [1]
leads to different densities \rho with respect to the two different
measures \mu, which in the present problem can be characterized by
their behavior on the singleton sets {n} (n in {0,1,2,...}):
(A) \mu_A({n}) = 1(B) \mu_B({n}) = 1/n!
Jaynes' "finite sets policy" (see below) might help to see why
(A) is the correct choice here.
> > However, the original point remains independent of priors ...
> > If a Poisson distribution and a geometric distribution on the same
> > set have the same mean, then the geometric distribution necessarily
> > has greater Shannon entropy than does the Poisson distribution.
>
> Yes.
>
> > A reasonable interpretation of this is that the geometric distribution
> > represents a state of knowledge that incorporates less information
> > than does a state corresponding to the Poisson, *regardless* of how
> > those states come about.
>
> You only proved that it incorporates less 'Shannon entropy'.
> But the identification of 'information' and 'Shannon entropy' is
> dubious for situations with infinitely many alternatives.
> Shannon assumes in his analysis that in the absence of knowledge,
> all alternatives are equally likely, which makes no sense
> in the infinite case (and may even be debated in the finite case).
It's wise to distrust pat answers in the infinite case, but in the
**finite** case, the question has been effectively settled, IMO.
In the simplest version, if one must assign "state of knowledge"
probabilities concerning just two alternatives, any nonuniform
assignment clearly represents information that favors one of the
two alternatives. The same reasoning extends to other finite sets,
or you could appeal to an invariance argument such as you mention
below.
For distributions on *infinite* spaces, it's useful to consider
Jaynes' "finite sets policy". His last book was published
posthumously, and the following is from a pre-publication version:
"Our conclusion -- based on some forty years of mathematical
efforts and experience with real problems -- is that, at least
in probability theory, an infinite set should be thought of
only as the limit of a specific (i.e. unambiguously specified)
sequence of finite sets. Likewise, an improper pdf has meaning
only as the limit of a well-defined sequence of proper pdf's.
... Indeed, experience to date shows that almost any attempt
to depart from our recommended `finite sets' policy has the
potentiality for generating a paradox, in which two equally
valid methods of reasoning lead us to contradictory results."
(He devoted an entire chapter to illustrating how errors easily
arise when this policy is not followed.)
If we apply a finite-sets policy to the present problem, together
with your view of \mu as a prior, then we should choose which of
the two priors, \mu_A or \mu_B, represents the least information
when the basic set is finite, say {0,...,n-1}, and no other
information is given (since these are *prior* to any such). Both
measures are then normalizable, \mu_A being a uniform probability
distribution and \mu_B being a particular Poisson probability
distribution, both restricted to the finite space.
But in each of the finite cases, any nonuniform distribution cannot
possibly be the least informative one; rather, a uniform
distribution is seen to be inescapable for each of the finite sets
{0,...,n-1}. Consequently, the constrained maximizations [1] on
these finite sets produce a sequence of geometric distributions
converging to the geometric distribution on the infinite set.
I admit, though, that in the statistical mechanics of many-particle
systems, there might be physical justifications for a Poisson prior
to represent some kind of information before the mean value is
specified -- e.g. to get the 'correct Boltzmann counting' that you
mention. But there is no such physical context in the present
problem. (I had cited the Boltzmann distribution only to give a
familiar example that formally can reduce to a geometric.)
> Here is a more careful setting that should explain our differences:
>
> For a probability distribution on a finite set of alternatives,
> given by probabilities p_n summing to 1, the Shannon entropy is
> defined by
> S = - sum p_n log_2 p_n.
> The main use of the entropy concept is the maximum entropy principle,
> used to define various interesting ensembles by maximizing the entropy
> subject to constraints defined by known expectation values
> <f> = sum P_n f(n)
> for certain key observables f.
>
> If the number of alternatives is infinite, this formula must be
> appropriately generalized. In the literature, one finds various
> possibilities, the most common being, for random vectors with
> probability density p(x), the absolute entropy
> S = - k_B integral dx p(x) log p(x)
> with the Boltzmann constant k_B and Lebesgue measure dx.
> The value of the Boltzmann constant k_B is conventional and has no
> effect on the use of entropy in applications.
> There is also the relative entropy
> S = - k_B integral dx p(x) log (p(x)/p_0(x)),
> which involves an arbitrary positive function p_0(x). If p_0(x)
> is a probability density then the relative entropy is nonnegative.
^^^^^^^^^^^
No, it won't be nonnegative. Relative entropy by your definition
is non*positive*. Suppose P, Q are probability measures with
P << m, Q << m for positive measure m. Then the Radon-Nikodym
derivatives satisfy
integral dm (dP/dm) log( (dP/dm)/(dQ/dm) ) >=
which provides the more usual definition of relative entropy.
Of course, maximizing your nonpositive quantity leads to the
same results as minimizing the nonnegative one.
> For a probability distribution over an _arbitrary_ \sigma algebra,
> the absolute entropy makes no sense since there is no distinguished
> measure and hence no probability density. Thus one needs to assume a
> measure to be able to define a probability density (namely as the
> Radon-Nikodym derivative, assuming it exists). This measure is
> called the prior (it is often improper = not normalizable).
> Once one has specified a prior dmu,
> <f(x)> = integral dmu(x) \rho(x) f(x)
> defines the density \rho(x), and then
> S(\rho)= <-k_B log(\rho(x))>
> defines the entropy with respect to this prior. Note that the
> condition for \rho to define a probability density is
> integral dmu(x) \rho(x) = <1> = 1.
>
> In many cases, symmetry considerations suggest a unique natural prior.
> For random variables on a homogeneous space, the conventional measure
> is the invariant Haar measure. In particular, for probability theory
> of finitely many alternatives, it is conventional to consider the
> symmetric group on the set of alternatives and take as the prior the
> uniform measure, giving
> <f(x)> = sum_x \rho(x) f(x).
> The density \rho(x) agrees with the probability p_x, and the
> corresponding entropy is the Shannon entropy is one takes k_B=1/log2.
Of course the above argument acquires special significance
if a comprehensive finite-sets policy can be implemented.
> For random variables whose support is R or R^n, the conventional
> symmetry group is the translation group, and the corresponding
> (improper) prior is the Lebesgue measure. In this case one obtains
> the absolute entropy given above. But one could also take as prior
> a noninvariant measure
> dmu(x) = dx p_0(x);
> then the density becomes \rho(x)=p(x)/p_0(x), and one arrives at the
> relative entropy.
OK, but as mentioned above, this 'relative entropy' is nonpositive.
> If there is no natural transitive symmetry group, there is no natural
> prior, and one has to make other useful choices. In particular, this
> is the case for random natural numbers.
If we adopt a finite-sets policy, together with your view of the
measure \mu as a prior, the above is shown to be a non sequitur.
The reason you don't see the natural prior is that you're not
examining the priors in terms of their representative sequences
on *finite* spaces.
> Choice A. Treating the natural numbers as a limiting situation of
> finite interval [0:n] suggests to use the measure with
> integral dmu(x) \phi(x) = sum_n \phi(n)
> as (improper) prior, making
> <f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)
> the definition of the density; in this case, p_n=\rho(n) is the
> probability of getting n.
>
> Choice B. Statistical mechanics suggests to use instead the measure
> with
> integral dmu(x) \phi(x) = sum_n \phi(n)/n!
> as prior,
So \mu_B({n}) = 1/n! (n in {0,1,2,...}),
which normalizes to a Poisson distribution with mean 1.
> making
> <f(x)> = sum_n \rho(n) f(n)/n!
> the definition of the density; in this case, p_n=\rho(n)/n! is the
> probability of getting n.
>
> The maximum entropy ensemble defined by given expectations depends on
> the prior chosen. In particular, if the mean of a random natural number
> is given, choice A leads to a geometric distribution, while
> choice B leads to a Poisson distribution. The latter is the one
> relevant for statistical mechanics. Indeed, choice B is the prior
> needed in statistical mechanics of systems with an indefinite
> number n of particles to get the correct Boltzmann counting in the
> grand canonical ensemble. With choice A, the maximum entropy
> solution is unrelated to the distributions arising in statistical
> mechanics.
The present problem is not about the statistical mechanics of a
many-particle system, so it seems hard to justify forcing the
prior to be Poisson by reference to 'correct Boltzmann counting'.
--r.e.s.
Arnold Neumaier
May4-04, 04:04 PM
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>r.e.s. wrote:\n> "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n>\n\n> It\'s wise to distrust pat answers in the infinite case, but in the\n> **finite** case, the question has been effectively settled, IMO.\n> In the simplest version, if one must assign "state of knowledge"\n> probabilities concerning just two alternatives, any nonuniform\n> assignment clearly represents information that favors one of the\n> two alternatives.\n\nThis depends. If you have nested hierarichies of finitely many\nobjects such as Objects A1, A2, A3, B1, B2, C1, C2, C3, C4,\nthere is no natural prior. Should each item get prior probability 1/9.\nor should each class A,B,C get prior probability 1/3 and the members\nof each class the same class specific conditional probability?\n\nNatural priors exist only where there is a natural transitive symmetry\ngroup.\n\n> If we apply a finite-sets policy to the present problem, together\n> with your view of mu as a prior, then we should choose which of\n> the two priors, mu_A or mu_B, represents the least information\n> when the basic set is finite, say {0,...,n-1}, and no other\n> information is given (since these are *prior* to any such).\n\n\nI can\'t accept this kind of reasoning as \'natural\'. How would you\ndo it to derive a prior for R^2? You\'d not get Lebesgue measure.\n\n\n> I admit, though, that in the statistical mechanics of many-particle\n> systems, there might be physical justifications for a Poisson prior\n> to represent some kind of information before the mean value is\n> specified -- e.g. to get the \'correct Boltzmann counting\' that you\n> mention. But there is no such physical context in the present\n> problem. (I had cited the Boltzmann distribution only to give a\n> familiar example that formally can reduce to a geometric.)\n\nWell, this is a physics newsgroup, where probability has a quite\nspecific context...\n\n\n>>There is also the relative entropy\n>> S = - k_B integral dx p(x) log (p(x)/p_0(x)),\n>>which involves an arbitrary positive function p_0(x). If p_0(x)\n>>is a probability density then the relative entropy is nonnegative.\n>\n> ^^^^^^^^^^^\n> No, it won\'t be nonnegative. Relative entropy by your definition\n> is non*positive*.\n\nYes, of course.\n\n\n> Suppose P, Q are probability measures with\n> P << m, Q << m for positive measure m. Then the Radon-Nikodym\n> derivatives satisfy\n>\n> integral dm (dP/dm) log( (dP/dm)/(dQ/dm) ) >= 0\n>\n> which provides the more usual definition of relative entropy.\n> Of course, maximizing your nonpositive quantity leads to the\n> same results as minimizing the nonnegative one.\n>\n\n\n>>If there is no natural transitive symmetry group, there is no natural\n>>prior, and one has to make other useful choices. In particular, this\n>>is the case for random natural numbers.\n>\n> If we adopt a finite-sets policy, together with your view of the\n> measure mu as a prior, the above is shown to be a non sequitur.\n> The reason you don\'t see the natural prior is that you\'re not\n> examining the priors in terms of their representative sequences\n> on *finite* spaces.\n\nBut the finite set policy is already a particular choice whose\nusefulness depends on the circumstances.\n\n\n\n>>The maximum entropy ensemble defined by given expectations depends on\n>>the prior chosen. In particular, if the mean of a random natural number\n>>is given, choice A leads to a geometric distribution, while\n>>choice B leads to a Poisson distribution. The latter is the one\n>>relevant for statistical mechanics. Indeed, choice B is the prior\n>>needed in statistical mechanics of systems with an indefinite\n>>number n of particles to get the correct Boltzmann counting in the\n>>grand canonical ensemble. With choice A, the maximum entropy\n>>solution is unrelated to the distributions arising in statistical\n>>mechanics.\n>\n>\n> The present problem is not about the statistical mechanics of a\n> many-particle system, so it seems hard to justify forcing the\n> prior to be Poisson by reference to \'correct Boltzmann counting\'.\n\nHmm, the thread started with the question of whether the\nfrequentist interpretation could be used as the foundation of the\nprobabilistic interpretation of QM. Clearly this is closely related to\nstatistical mechanics, and the correct Boltzmann counting is needed\nto take account of the (anti)symmetrization of the wave function...\n\n\nArnold Neumaier\n\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>r.e.s. wrote:
> "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
>
> It's wise to distrust pat answers in the infinite case, but in the
> **finite** case, the question has been effectively settled, IMO.
> In the simplest version, if one must assign "state of knowledge"
> probabilities concerning just two alternatives, any nonuniform
> assignment clearly represents information that favors one of the
> two alternatives.
This depends. If you have nested hierarichies of finitely many
objects such as Objects A1, A2, A3, B1, B2, C1, C2, C3, C4,
there is no natural prior. Should each item get prior probability 1/9.
or should each class A,B,C get prior probability 1/3 and the members
of each class the same class specific conditional probability?
Natural priors exist only where there is a natural transitive symmetry
group.
> If we apply a finite-sets policy to the present problem, together
> with your view of \mu as a prior, then we should choose which of
> the two priors, \mu_A or \mu_B, represents the least information
> when the basic set is finite, say {0,...,n-1}, and no other
> information is given (since these are *prior* to any such).
I can't accept this kind of reasoning as 'natural'. How would you
do it to derive a prior for R^2? You'd not get Lebesgue measure.
> I admit, though, that in the statistical mechanics of many-particle
> systems, there might be physical justifications for a Poisson prior
> to represent some kind of information before the mean value is
> specified -- e.g. to get the 'correct Boltzmann counting' that you
> mention. But there is no such physical context in the present
> problem. (I had cited the Boltzmann distribution only to give a
> familiar example that formally can reduce to a geometric.)
Well, this is a physics newsgroup, where probability has a quite
specific context...
>>There is also the relative entropy
>> S = - k_B integral dx p(x) log (p(x)/p_0(x)),
>>which involves an arbitrary positive function p_0(x). If p_0(x)
>>is a probability density then the relative entropy is nonnegative.
>
> ^^^^^^^^^^^
> No, it won't be nonnegative. Relative entropy by your definition
> is non*positive*.
Yes, of course.
> Suppose P, Q are probability measures with
> P << m, Q << m for positive measure m. Then the Radon-Nikodym
> derivatives satisfy
>
> integral dm (dP/dm) log( (dP/dm)/(dQ/dm) ) >=
>
> which provides the more usual definition of relative entropy.
> Of course, maximizing your nonpositive quantity leads to the
> same results as minimizing the nonnegative one.
>
>>If there is no natural transitive symmetry group, there is no natural
>>prior, and one has to make other useful choices. In particular, this
>>is the case for random natural numbers.
>
> If we adopt a finite-sets policy, together with your view of the
> measure \mu as a prior, the above is shown to be a non sequitur.
> The reason you don't see the natural prior is that you're not
> examining the priors in terms of their representative sequences
> on *finite* spaces.
But the finite set policy is already a particular choice whose
usefulness depends on the circumstances.
>>The maximum entropy ensemble defined by given expectations depends on
>>the prior chosen. In particular, if the mean of a random natural number
>>is given, choice A leads to a geometric distribution, while
>>choice B leads to a Poisson distribution. The latter is the one
>>relevant for statistical mechanics. Indeed, choice B is the prior
>>needed in statistical mechanics of systems with an indefinite
>>number n of particles to get the correct Boltzmann counting in the
>>grand canonical ensemble. With choice A, the maximum entropy
>>solution is unrelated to the distributions arising in statistical
>>mechanics.
>
>
> The present problem is not about the statistical mechanics of a
> many-particle system, so it seems hard to justify forcing the
> prior to be Poisson by reference to 'correct Boltzmann counting'.
Hmm, the thread started with the question of whether the
frequentist interpretation could be used as the foundation of the
probabilistic interpretation of QM. Clearly this is closely related to
statistical mechanics, and the correct Boltzmann counting is needed
to take account of the (anti)symmetrization of the wave function...
Arnold Neumaier
<jabberwocky><div class="vbmenu_control"><a href="jabberwocky:;" onClick="newWindow=window.open('','usenetCode','toolbar=no, location=no,scrollbars=yes,resizable=yes,status=no ,width=650,height=400'); newWindow.document.write('<HTML><HEAD><TITLE>Usenet ASCII</TITLE></HEAD><BODY topmargin=0 leftmargin=0 BGCOLOR=#F1F1F1><table border=0 width=625><td bgcolor=midnightblue><font color=#F1F1F1>This Usenet message\'s original ASCII form: </font></td></tr><tr><td width=449><br><br><font face=courier><UL><PRE>\n\n\n"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n> r.e.s. wrote:\n> > "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...\n[...]\n> If you have nested hierarichies of finitely many\n> objects such as Objects A1, A2, A3, B1, B2, C1, C2, C3, C4,\n> there is no natural prior. Should each item get prior probability 1/9.\n> or should each class A,B,C get prior probability 1/3 and the members\n> of each class the same class specific conditional probability?\n\nNote that that argument applies as well to x in {a, b, c}. E.g.,\nx is either in class {a} or class {b, c} -- if there is no other\ninformation about x, should each *element* get prior probability\n1/3, or should each *class* get prior probability 1/2?\n\nISTM that there\'s no ambiguity in the example; for if we know only\nthat x is in a given finite set X, then no additional information\nis provided merely by noticing that X can be partitioned into\nparticular \'classes\'. (We already know X can be partitioned in\nthat way, among others.) Consequently, in this situation, a\nnonuniform prior would inappropriately reflect information that\nwe do not have. OTOH, if there is information to the effect that\nx is the result of some multistage selection procedure involving\na particular partition, then of course we expect the prior to\nreflect that, perhaps being appropriately nonuniform (depending\non the details).\n\nThat was a qualitative argument for the natural "non-informative"\nprior being uniform in any finite space -- a conclusion that\'s\nindependently supported by the fact that Shannon entropy is\nmaximized by such a uniform distribution.\n\n(BTW, you\'d said earlier ...\n\n"Shannon assumes in his analysis that in the absence\nof knowledge, all alternatives are equally likely ..."\n\nbut that\'s not true. His assumption nearest to it, perhaps, is\nthat among cases in which n alternatives are equally likely,\nthe uncertainty measure should increase with increasing n. That,\nand two other reasonable axioms, leads to the Shannon entropy\nfunctional. So the uniform distribution being "non-informative"\nin Shannon\'s quantitative sense, is a conclusion following from\nthose axioms, independently of the qualitative arguments above.)\n\n\n> > If we apply a finite-sets policy to the present problem, together\n> > with your view of mu as a prior, then we should choose which of\n> > the two priors, mu_A or mu_B, represents the least information\n> > when the basic set is finite, say {0,...,n-1}, and no other\n> > information is given (since these are *prior* to any such).\n>\n>\n> I can\'t accept this kind of reasoning as \'natural\'. How would you\n> do it to derive a prior for R^2? You\'d not get Lebesgue measure.\n\nThis concerns the limit set {0,1,2,...} -- \'infinite\' here means\n\'countably infinite\'.\n\n\n> > Suppose P, Q are probability measures with\n> > P << m, Q << m for positive measure m. Then the Radon-Nikodym\n> > derivatives satisfy\n> >\n> > integral dm (dP/dm) log( (dP/dm)/(dQ/dm) ) >= 0\n\n(I meant to say "for sigma-finite measure m".)\n\n\n> > The present problem is not about the statistical mechanics of a\n> > many-particle system, so it seems hard to justify forcing the\n> > prior to be Poisson by reference to \'correct Boltzmann counting\'.\n>\n> Hmm, the thread started with the question of whether the\n> frequentist interpretation could be used as the foundation of the\n> probabilistic interpretation of QM. Clearly this is closely related to\n> statistical mechanics, and the correct Boltzmann counting is needed\n> to take account of the (anti)symmetrization of the wave function...\n\nSuch a "foundations" question need not involve many-particle\nsystems; however, even there the general claim about the Poisson\ndistribution can be disproved by a single counter-example in which\nthe geometric distribution emerges as least-informative given a\nspecified mean:\n\nThe quantum-mechanical grand canonical ensemble is given correctly\nby constrained maximization of Shannon entropy (i.e. using a\nuniform prior) -- this was already in Jaynes\' 1957 Phys Rev paper,\n"Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics". The specific case\nto consider is that of bosons at a single energy level, for which\nthe particle-number density is found to be *geometric*, i.e.\np_n = p_0 (1 - p_0)^n (n in {0,1,2,...}).\n\nBy regarding a prior on a countably infinite space as referring to\na sequence of priors on finite spaces, the Poisson example shows\nhow a nonuniform prior necessarily represents an incorporation of\ninformation: If a nonuniform prior is needed in some case, the\nimplication is that it represents *some* missing piece of required\ninformation that\'s not yet accounted for in the formulation of the\nproblem. For "correct Boltzmann counting", that missing piece of\ninformation obviously is a QM constraint unaccounted for in the\nclassical formulation. The quantum-mechanical grand canonical\nensemble, in contrast, doesn\'t have that shortcoming, so a uniform\nprior is appropriate there.\n\n--r.e.s.\n</UL></PRE></font></td></tr></table></BODY><HTML>');"> <IMG SRC=/images/buttons/ip.gif BORDER=0 ALIGN=CENTER ALT="View this Usenet post in original ASCII form"> View this Usenet post in original ASCII form </a></div><P></jabberwocky>"Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
> r.e.s. wrote:
> > "Arnold Neumaier" <Arnold.Neumaier@univie.ac.at> wrote ...
[...]
> If you have nested hierarichies of finitely many
> objects such as Objects A1, A2, A3, B1, B2, C1, C2, C3, C4,
> there is no natural prior. Should each item get prior probability 1/9.
> or should each class A,B,C get prior probability 1/3 and the members
> of each class the same class specific conditional probability?
Note that that argument applies as well to x in {a, b, c}. E.g.,
x is either in class {a} or class {b, c} -- if there is no other
information about x, should each *element* get prior probability
1/3, or should each *class* get prior probability 1/2?
ISTM that there's no ambiguity in the example; for if we know only
that x is in a given finite set X, then no additional information
is provided merely by noticing that X can be partitioned into
particular 'classes'. (We already know X can be partitioned in
that way, among others.) Consequently, in this situation, a
nonuniform prior would inappropriately reflect information that
we do not have. OTOH, if there is information to the effect that
x is the result of some multistage selection procedure involving
a particular partition, then of course we expect the prior to
reflect that, perhaps being appropriately nonuniform (depending
on the details).
That was a qualitative argument for the natural "non-informative"
prior being uniform in any finite space -- a conclusion that's
independently supported by the fact that Shannon entropy is
maximized by such a uniform distribution.
(BTW, you'd said earlier ...
"Shannon assumes in his analysis that in the absence
of knowledge, all alternatives are equally likely ..."
but that's not true. His assumption nearest to it, perhaps, is
that among cases in which n alternatives are equally likely,
the uncertainty measure should increase with increasing n. That,
and two other reasonable axioms, leads to the Shannon entropy
functional. So the uniform distribution being "non-informative"
in Shannon's quantitative sense, is a conclusion following from
those axioms, independently of the qualitative arguments above.)
> > If we apply a finite-sets policy to the present problem, together
> > with your view of \mu as a prior, then we should choose which of
> > the two priors, \mu_A or \mu_B, represents the least information
> > when the basic set is finite, say {0,...,n-1}, and no other
> > information is given (since these are *prior* to any such).
>
>
> I can't accept this kind of reasoning as 'natural'. How would you
> do it to derive a prior for R^2? You'd not get Lebesgue measure.
This concerns the limit set {0,1,2,...} -- 'infinite' here means
'countably infinite'.
> > Suppose P, Q are probability measures with
> > P << m, Q << m for positive measure m. Then the Radon-Nikodym
> > derivatives satisfy
> >
> > integral dm (dP/dm) log( (dP/dm)/(dQ/dm) ) >=
(I meant to say "for \sigma-finite measure m".)
> > The present problem is not about the statistical mechanics of a
> > many-particle system, so it seems hard to justify forcing the
> > prior to be Poisson by reference to 'correct Boltzmann counting'.
>
> Hmm, the thread started with the question of whether the
> frequentist interpretation could be used as the foundation of the
> probabilistic interpretation of QM. Clearly this is closely related to
> statistical mechanics, and the correct Boltzmann counting is needed
> to take account of the (anti)symmetrization of the wave function...
Such a "foundations" question need not involve many-particle
systems; however, even there the general claim about the Poisson
distribution can be disproved by a single counter-example in which
the geometric distribution emerges as least-informative given a
specified mean:
The quantum-mechanical grand canonical ensemble is given correctly
by constrained maximization of Shannon entropy (i.e. using a
uniform prior) -- this was already in Jaynes' 1957 Phys Rev paper,
"Information Theory and Statistical Mechanics". The specific case
to consider is that of bosons at a single energy level, for which
the particle-number density is found to be *geometric*, i.e.
p_n = p_0 (1 - p_0)^n (n in {0,1,2,...}).
By regarding a prior on a countably infinite space as referring to
a sequence of priors on finite spaces, the Poisson example shows
how a nonuniform prior necessarily represents an incorporation of
information: If a nonuniform prior is needed in some case, the
implication is that it represents *some* missing piece of required
information that's not yet accounted for in the formulation of the
problem. For "correct Boltzmann counting", that missing piece of
information obviously is a QM constraint unaccounted for in the
classical formulation. The quantum-mechanical grand canonical
ensemble, in contrast, doesn't have that shortcoming, so a uniform
prior is appropriate there.
--r.e.s.
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