Why angry women will not vote for McCain

[Ivan Seeking]

I know that right now a lot of women are very angry and feel that the nomination has been stolen from Hillary. And many people are worried that Hillary supporters may not show up for Obama in November. But, I got to thinking about this and noted that the next President could appoint as many as 4 supreme court justices. Combine that with this little fact:

...[John McCain] "I have stated time after time after time that Roe v Wade was a bad decision, that I support a woman — the rights of the unborn — that I have fought for human rights and human dignity throughout my entire political career," McCain said. "To me, it's an issue of human rights and human dignity."

And while now former candidate Fred Thompson, the former senator from Tennessee, won the coveted endorsement from the National Right to Life Committee, McCain's voting record on the issue is just fine, says David O'Steen, the group's executive director.

"He's been very consistent; he hasn't changed his position," O'Steen says. He says that his group has supported McCain in every one of his senate races. "We've always considered him pro-life," he says.

Nancy Keenan, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America, says her group has always considered McCain pro-life as well. And it's not just abortion, she says.

"He voted against family planning, he voted against the freedom of access to clinic entrances — that was about violence against women in clinics," Keenan says, adding, "He voted against funding for teen pregnancy-prevention programs, and making sure that abstinence only was medically accurate. This is very, very extreme."[continued]
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18632802

If feminists vote for this guy, then they really deserve what they get; or should I say, what their daughters get. Are women really angry enough to step back four decades?

[Not to mention that Hillary might be the VP... With her strong close in the primary season, it is reported that analysts are taking a hard look at the numbers.]

[lisab]

Well said, Ivan. The women who are ticked off now MUST come around by November. And if they don't, they're idiots to play sour grapes with such an important issue. Do they think they're just going to take their ball and go home?!? Give me a break!

[AhmedEzz]

They are there just to say "count our votes", as in saying "Address our issues or else!!"...But I don't think they'll vote for Mccain because any sane person knows that this means giving Bush an extension - or even worse -
Anyway, I think Hillary will make a great VP and Obama can still attract women's votes.

[jimmysnyder]

They should vote for Nader. He gets it on Roe v. Wade, and he didn't steal his nomination from a woman like Obama did.

[chemisttree]

Whistling in the dark, are we?

[Ivan Seeking]

So, Jimmy tries to stoke the phoney fires, and chemistree is hoping beyond hope for the feminst vote.

No, it was actually just an undeniable observation of the facts.

At least our Egyptian friend understands the US. :biggrin:

[quadraphonics]

The real concern is not that Hillary supporters will go out and vote for McCain (which would be mind-bogglingly stupid), but rather that they'll simply stay home on election day, which could undermine support for Obama in crucial swing states and so tip the election to McCain.

[turbo-1]

Clinton as VP would be a lightning-rod for Swift-Boat attacks on Travelgate, Whitewater, huge cattle-futures profits, Rose law-firm billing records, Vince Foster's suicide, Bill's serial infidelities, etc, etc. If the Dems want to win in the GE, they must keep her off the ticket at all costs. I think that Obama is smart enough to offer her an early nomination to the Supremes, so she can cement some kind of legacy, and to offer to help her fund-raise to retire her massive debt. She is too old to gain enough seniority in the Senate to claim plum posts. Regarding the debt - lots of it is owed to Mark Penn's company. He will not be shy about suing the Clintons if she does not pony up promptly.

[jimmysnyder]

Clinton as VP.
Clinton supporters have made it clear they will not vote for Obama and Obama supporters have made it clear they won't vote for Clinton. An Obama-Clinton ticket will garner two votes tops.

[lisab]

Clinton supporters have made it clear they will not vote for Obama and Obama supporters have made it clear they won't vote for Clinton.


Much of what we've heard from angry voters in the last few days has been said in the heat of the moment. After the general election starts, especially after Obama contrasts himself with McCain, cooler heads will prevail.

[Gokul43201]

I know that right now a lot of women are very angry and feel that the nomination has been stolen from Hillary. And many people are worried that Hillary supporters may not show up for Obama in November.During the rules committe hearing this weekend, many angry Hillary supporters near the back of the room left after the vote was announced. Some of them were yelling: "Let's go, McCain!"

I guess they haven't read the new book on McCain - The Real McCain (http://www.amazon.com/Real-McCain-Conservatives-Independents-Shouldnt/dp/0979482291), by Cliff Schecter. Here's a little excerpt:Three reporters from Arizona, on the condition of anonymity, also let me in on another incident involving McCain's intemperateness. In his 1992 Senate bid, McCain was joined on the campaign trail by his wife, Cindy, as well as campaign aide Doug Cole and consultant Wes Gullett. At one point, Cindy playfully twirled McCain's hair and said, "You're getting a little thin up there." McCain's face reddened, and he responded, "At least I don't plaster on the makeup like a trollop, you c*nt." McCain's excuse was that it had been a long day.

(I think the McCain campaign has denied that incident, but I'm not certain.)

Or maybe they would like to be reminded about the joke McCain made (http://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/1998-06-18/news/flashes/) about Chelsea in a GOP fundraiser in 1998:
"Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because her father is Janet Reno."

[Ivan Seeking]

Clinton just stated that she would accept the VP spot [if offered]. Presumably this is within the assumed context that she doesn't pull off a miracle today.

[turbo-1]

Clinton just stated that she would accept the VP spot [if offered]. Presumably this is within the assumed context that she doesn't pull off a miracle today.Obama would be an idiot to offer it, and his advisers know it.

[Ivan Seeking]

David Gergen stated last night, "I have evolved on this issue", and the same is true for me. On one hand it undermines Obama's message of change, but Hillary, for all of her faults, has shown herself to be a highly viable and capable candidate. I still want to scream when she starts in on her Clinton-speak, but it is hard to deny the numbers. And it is hard to argue that a woman VP is not change. The fact that this has been a historic event in US political history is also undeniable, as is her role in all of this.

If it takes Hillary to keep McCain out, and more importantly, to get Obama in, then I'm all for it. And Obama is smart enough to know that this call has to be made by the numbers.

[Gokul43201]

If it takes Hillary to keep McCain out, I'm all for it. And Obama is smart enough to know that this call has to be made by the numbers.The Reps are not going for McCain in huge numbers - they are mostly quite cool about him, and RL continues to denounce McCain. But a Clinton on the ticket may be all it needs to energize the Republican base to show up in numbers.

[Ivan Seeking]

But a Clinton on the ticket may be all it needs to energize the Republican base to show up in numbers.

Yes, that has always been the concern.

In 1998, Chelsea was 18.

[turbo-1]

The Reps are not going for McCain in huge numbers - they are mostly quite cool about him, and RL continues to denounce McCain. But a Clinton on the ticket may be all it needs to energize the Republican base to show up in numbers.That is a huge problem. The RNC is going to support McCain, but his popular support is really spongy. That will change if Obama puts Clinton on the ticket, though if Obama chooses Richardson or Sebelius, there will be some new dynamics amongst the Dems in and Indies (and moderate GOP voters) that will make his campaign unbeatable.

[Ivan Seeking]

Not only is there Hillary's high negatives, but another good point made by Gergen was that you don't want to win the election and then spend four years in hell. Not only must the numbers support the vp choice, but there must be reasonable arrangements for the power structure in the White House. Hillary won't accept the job of a silent VP whose biggest challenge is to spell potato.

And then, what do you do with Bill? He has clearly lost his edge and can be dangerous.

[TheStatutoryApe]

What I heard this morning was that Obama intends to have a meeting with Clinton though no particulars on that meeting are set.
I really hope that he doesn't wuss out and accept her as his VP.

[russ_watters]

Clinton as VP would be a lightning-rod for Swift-Boat attacks on Travelgate, Whitewater, huge cattle-futures profits, Rose law-firm billing records, Vince Foster's suicide, Bill's serial infidelities, etc, etc. She certainly has a lot of baggage, which would be a reason to keep her off, but she also has some pretty rabid support, which would be a reason to put her on. I don't envy Obama in this decision.

[russ_watters]

Much of what we've heard from angry voters in the last few days has been said in the heat of the moment. After the general election starts, especially after Obama contrasts himself with McCain, cooler heads will prevail. Yes, do you remember a few months ago when then right-wing commentators said they'd vote for a Democrat over McCain? Haven't heard any of them say that recently...

[Firefox123]

I know that right now a lot of women are very angry and feel that the nomination has been stolen from Hillary. And many people are worried that Hillary supporters may not show up for Obama in November. But, I got to thinking about this and noted that the next President could appoint as many as 4 supreme court justices. Combine that with this little fact:


http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=18632802

If feminists vote for this guy, then they really deserve what they get; or should I say, what their daughters get. Are women really angry enough to step back four decades?

So abortion is somehow "enlightened"?

Wow.....

[russ_watters]

There is certainly going to be an interesting shift in the dynamics over the next few weeks/months. The things that Obama/Clinton couldn't throw at each other McCain will start throwing at him (them?). What issues he goes after and how they go over will be an interesting question.

Personal opinions aside (as much as I can) and just thinking about electablility, I see the following electability problems, off the top of my head:

McCain:
-Not right wing enough for the right wing (probably a big problem, especially with money).
-Too old to get young votors
-Too white to get black votors
-Pro Life
-His wishy-washyness with the lobbyist issues
-Cheated on his wife while she was dying

Obama:
-Angry Black Man (could be a big problem with getting moderate white votors - the people he needs to get elected)
-Angry Black Wife (she'll need to keep her mouth shut if he is to have a prayer of getting elected)
-Muslim? (Shouldn't be a big issue since he isn't, but his family history is confusing enough it could cause some problems if exploited correctly)
-Age/Experience (probably not a big issue)
-Extremely liberal (could be a big issue with the moderates)

Hillary
-She's a little crazy (I've heard, even from democrats, that she comes off as kinda crazy: shill voice and wild eyes).
-Married to Bill Clinton (he's going to need to keep his mouth shut if she's to have any chance of getting elected)
-May or may not have opinions (if she does, she's not telling anyone. Sometimes that works, sometimes people get annoyed not knowing what you stand for)
-Just plain annoying (big issue)

[Ivan Seeking]

So abortion is somehow "enlightened"?

Wow.....

I don't remember making any value judgements about abortion. But it does take us back through 40 years of woman fighting for the right to choose.

I was saying that feminists, and many other women - the women who are most angry about Hillary losing - will never stand for it when they learn more about McCain.

[TheStatutoryApe]

I don't remember making any value judgements about abortion. But it does take us back through 40 years of woman fighting for the right to choose.

I was saying that feminists, and many other women - the women who are most angry about Hillary losing - will never stand for it when they learn more about McCain.

A rather interesting cross section of people supported Ron Paul and he's rather active in attempting to overturn Roe v Wade. Maybe if McCain follows Paul's example and dresses it up as a states' rights issue he could squeeze it by.

[Gokul43201]

McCain:
-Not right wing enough for the right wing (probably a big problem, especially with money).
-Too old to get young votors
-Too white to get black votors
-Pro Life
-His wishy-washyness with the lobbyist issues
-Cheated on his wife while she was dying

Obama:
-Angry Black Man (could be a big problem with getting moderate white votors - the people he needs to get elected)
-Angry Black Wife (she'll need to keep her mouth shut if he is to have a prayer of getting elected)
-Muslim? (Shouldn't be a big issue since he isn't, but his family history is confusing enough it could cause some problems if exploited correctly)
-Age/Experience (probably not a big issue)
-Extremely liberal (could be a big issue with the moderates)
Russ, I find it curious that McCain's flaws are based on facts while most of Obama's are not.

Surely you don't think Obama is more angry than McCain? There's no doubt about which of those two has the bigger temper. As for the extremely liberal bit, that sounds like it needs more persistent debunking.

http://www.progressivepunch.org/members.jsp?search=selectScore&chamber=Senate&scoreSort=current_congress


Ranking of Senators from most to least "progressive": play around with different areas of legislation to zoom in on fields of interest.

"Lifetime" Scores - going back until 1991 (all issues):

#1. Sheldon Whitehouse
#20. Hillary Clinton
#25. Barack Obama
#60. John McCain
#100. Jim DeMint


Votes cast during 2007-2008 (all issues):

#1. Frank Lautenberg
#29. Hillary Clinton
#41. Barack Obama
#82. John McCain
#100. Jim DeMint

Note: Clinton and Obama appear to have swung towards the center lately, while McCain has swung a lot to the Right.


In any case, I think McCain's biggest problem may be that he's taking the far right stance on so many issues lately, he no longer looks anything like the maverick he used to be a decade ago. And it's taking a lot of lying, back and forth, to make himself look like two different creatures.

But we're getting somewhat offtopic now.

Incidentally, did anyone watch the speech McCain gave in Kenner, LA. If you managed to stay awake through the first few minutes, you would have had the opportunity to watch McCain whoring himself out to Clinton's base, hoping to capitalize on their anger with Obama.

[Gokul43201]

Here's more evidence that "angry women" want to vote for McCain or abstain in the general election: http://blog.hillaryclinton.com/blog/main/2008/06/04/030945#view_comments

Some excerpts:
I will not vote for obama and all these men that have betrayed us and again put the woman more qualified behind a man who has no right to be there seem to think we will vote for obama in a few months when things calm down they are sooooooooo wrong please let them know just how wrong they are I am voting Mcain no matter what unless Hillary is the independant

------

Maybe the best way to keep the vital truth of Democratic values alive is to replant the seeds of Democracy in the strong ground of INDEPENDENCE.

HILLARY as a VP. What a slap in the face!
NEVER!

HILLARY DENVER HILLARY DENVER
DENVER HILLARY DENVER HILLARY
HILLARY DENVER HILLARY DENVER
DENVER HILLARY DENVER HILLARY

------

Boy - I just donated money and breaking news that hillary will endorse Obama - I want a refund. I really thought she was in for the long run. I thought she may run independent. Why would she do this. Why would she let us down. My vote is for MCCAIN. I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR OBAMA.

------

OBAMA RELEASED A STATEMENT SAYING THE SQUABBLE IS OVER, NOW WE CAN UNIFY. HE JUST RELEASED THIS A FEW MINUTES AGO. THE NERVE OF HIM..........

I WILL NOT UNIFY WITH HIM AT ALL, NEVER EVER WILL I VOTE FOR HIM.........The question is: what fraction of the Hillary support base, do these people represent?

[jimmysnyder]

The question is: what fraction of the Hillary support base, do these people represent?
4/18000000

She way needs to shut that site down. Is she looking to get kicked out of the party?

[seycyrus]

Russ, I find it curious that McCain's flaws are based on facts while most of Obama's are not.


That's a pretty biased opinion.

Too old..., Too white... Wishy washy... Not right wing enough...

Those are subjective calls, not facts.

Perhaps the only *fact* is the cheating on his wife part...

On the other hand, I believe Russ's use of parenthetical remarks qualified his statements about Obama sufficiently.

Why the bias in acceptance of *facts*?

[Ivan Seeking]

So you are saying that McCain will get the young vote, the black vote, and the fundamentalist vote?

[Ivan Seeking]

Here's more evidence that "angry women" want to vote for McCain or abstain in the general election: http://blog.hillaryclinton.com/blog/main/2008/06/04/030945#view_comments

Some excerpts:
The question is: what fraction of the Hillary support base, do these people represent?

Sexist women. :rolleyes: Just wait until they learn more about McCain. Course some women are not only sexists, but also racists.

I didn't even know about him cheating on his dying wife. That will go over well.

So he cheated on his dying wife and publically humiliated a little girl. Nice guy!

[TR345]

I view Clinton as a business women out to make more wealth for her and her husband. I hope Obama doesn't choose her because it will make him look like they are in kahoots in their special interest plans to make dough. That is the one thing that I fear of Obama, is he really a selfless good doer, or is he in it for himself after fortune?

[chemisttree]

As for the extremely liberal bit, that sounds like it needs more persistent debunking.

Not debunked...

Obama scored a 95.5 out of 100 ranking of liberalness by the independent non-partisan National Journal (http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/) which put him as the #1 liberal in the Senate. Hillary scored an 82.8 which placed her at #16 in the Senate.

Progressive is not equal to liberal...

[Gokul43201]

That's a pretty biased opinion.

Too old..., Too white... Wishy washy... Not right wing enough...I said they were based on facts - that he is pretty old and pretty white are facts. Whether the age or the whiteness is a serious enough factor is in the eye of the beholder.
Those are subjective calls, not facts.

Why the bias in acceptance of *facts*?Ain't no bias.

[Ivan Seeking]

Here is one spin that made me laugh the first time that I saw it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUBDM16ylvU

[jimmysnyder]

I doubt that angry women will vote for McCain when there are better choices out there. Write Hillary in (http://writehillaryin.com/). The site says: A vote should never be a lie, and I agree with that whole-heartedly. It makes me sick to see citizens of a free country voting for candidates they don't want to win, while better alternatives are out there. No wonder we are in the thrall of a two (one really) party system. She had the nomination taken away from her by the DNC and its delegate apparatchiks, not by the voters. Women, and progressive thinking men, it is in your power to correct matters. Write in Hillary Clinton for President in November 2008.

[turbo-1]

I doubt that angry women will vote for McCain when there are better choices out there. Write Hillary in (http://writehillaryin.com/). The site says: A vote should never be a lie, and I agree with that whole-heartedly. It makes me sick to see citizens of a free country voting for candidates they don't want to win, while better alternatives are out there. No wonder we are in the thrall of a two (one really) party system. She had the nomination taken away from her by the DNC and its delegate apparatchiks, not by the voters. Women, and progressive thinking men, it is in your power to correct matters. Write in Hillary Clinton for President in November 2008.Yes! Let's put McCain in the White House so that he can make Bush's tax cuts permanent and make the Iraq occupation permanent. That would be a step forward.

[jimmysnyder]

Yes! Let's put McCain in the White House so that he can make Bush's tax cuts permanent and make the Iraq occupation permanent. That would be a step forward.
You are just the kind of voter I'm talking about. You give no support to Obama of any kind, you just want to throw chaos into the electoral system. A strong write in campaign for Hillary will allow committed voters the chance to vote for someone not against someone. She will be the next President while you will be complaining about the weaknesses of the two party system.

[vociferous]

Here is the positives and negatives, as I see it:

McCain (Positives):
Is a liberal republican, making him a moderate that appeals to undecided voters.
Is one of the few Republicans popular among Hispanics.

McCain (Negatives):
Is a Republican (normally not a negative, but Americans have taken an increasingly negative view of Republicans in the last few years. Normally, a liberal Republican would be able to make a clean sweep of the November election).
Is Old

Obama (Positives):
Is young and may bring younger voters to the polls (who traditionally do not vote in very large numbers).
Is a Democrat (everything being equal, it is better to be a Democrat right now).
Is a new face (may appeal to some who view him as a "Washington Outsider")

Obama (Negatives):
Muslim Heritage (the majority of Americans have a negative view of Muslims)
Leftist Liberal positions (Obama had the most liberal voting record in the Senate in 2007).
Too Young (Older voters tend to distrust people like Obama who seem young, underqualified, and Naive. Older voters tend to vote in large numbers, unlike younger voters).
Unpopular among Hispanics (Hispanics are an important demographic that Democrats must do well with, and Obama has proved very unpopular with Hispanic voters. Hispanic voters could decide important swing states like Florida and New Mexico)
Unpopular among lower-middle class and working class whites (this demographic is extremely important, since it will determine the fate of large swing States such as Ohio and Pennsylvania).
Unpopular among Florida Jews (Jews are normally a reliable Democratic vote, but rumors of Obama being anti Semitic and/or Anti-Israel are turning off a lot of Florida Jews, especially older ones who could decide the fate of the most important swing State.)
October surprise (Obama is a new face, and has not been vetted by the opposition. Most people have made up their mind about Hillary and McCain, and all the daemons in their respective closets have come to light. People have not made up their mind about Obama, and while this could end up being good for him, my guess is that it will be a negative, especially after the Republicans start digging deep and bring the smear campaign to full power.)

In summary, I think that Obama has way too many negatives to beat McCain. Hillary might have been able to pull it off, but not Obama. It will still be a close election though.

[vociferous]

I doubt that angry women will vote for McCain when there are better choices out there. Write Hillary in (http://writehillaryin.com/). The site says: A vote should never be a lie, and I agree with that whole-heartedly. It makes me sick to see citizens of a free country voting for candidates they don't want to win, while better alternatives are out there. No wonder we are in the thrall of a two (one really) party system. She had the nomination taken away from her by the DNC and its delegate apparatchiks, not by the voters. Women, and progressive thinking men, it is in your power to correct matters. Write in Hillary Clinton for President in November 2008.

To be honest, this is what I have been considering. I do not dislike McCain or Obama, but I have really deep reservations about either one becoming President, and despite McCain's liberal stances, I doubt the vote will be very close in California, so writing in "Hillary" will be unlikely to change the outcome.

[turbo-1]

You are just the kind of voter I'm talking about. You give no support to Obama of any kind, you just want to throw chaos into the electoral system. A strong write in campaign for Hillary will allow committed voters the chance to vote for someone not against someone. She will be the next President while you will be complaining about the weaknesses of the two party system.You seem to have a prescient (though 180 degrees wrong!) insight into what I think. Perhaps you should read what I write and consider that people can honestly disagree with you and not be motivated by some arcane conspiracy-plot. I am an independent conservative that wants to end the lock of the Republicans on the administration so that we can roll back some of the neocon initiatives that Bush and Cheney have foisted on us. Their actions have resulted in theft from conservative people like myself to reward wealthy risk-takers who are gaming the system.

[lisab]

Here is the positives and negatives, as I see it:

McCain (Positives):
Is a liberal republican, making him a moderate that appeals to undecided voters.
Is one of the few Republicans popular among Hispanics.

McCain (Negatives):
Is a Republican (normally not a negative, but Americans have taken an increasingly negative view of Republicans in the last few years. Normally, a liberal Republican would be able to make a clean sweep of the November election).
Is Old

Obama (Positives):
Is young and may bring younger voters to the polls (who traditionally do not vote in very large numbers).
Is a Democrat (everything being equal, it is better to be a Democrat right now).
Is a new face (may appeal to some who view him as a "Washington Outsider")

Obama (Negatives):
Muslim Heritage (the majority of Americans have a negative view of Muslims)
Leftist Liberal positions (Obama had the most liberal voting record in the Senate in 2007).
Too Young (Older voters tend to distrust people like Obama who seem young, underqualified, and Naive. Older voters tend to vote in large numbers, unlike younger voters).
Unpopular among Hispanics (Hispanics are an important demographic that Democrats must do well with, and Obama has proved very unpopular with Hispanic voters. Hispanic voters could decide important swing states like Florida and New Mexico)
Unpopular among lower-middle class and working class whites (this demographic is extremely important, since it will determine the fate of large swing States such as Ohio and Pennsylvania).
Unpopular among Florida Jews (Jews are normally a reliable Democratic vote, but rumors of Obama being anti Semitic and/or Anti-Israel are turning off a lot of Florida Jews, especially older ones who could decide the fate of the most important swing State.)
October surprise (Obama is a new face, and has not been vetted by the opposition. Most people have made up their mind about Hillary and McCain, and all the daemons in their respective closets have come to light. People have not made up their mind about Obama, and while this could end up being good for him, my guess is that it will be a negative, especially after the Republicans start digging deep and bring the smear campaign to full power.)

In summary, I think that Obama has way too many negatives to beat McCain. Hillary might have been able to pull it off, but not Obama. It will still be a close election though.


We're still way, way too far from the general election to make any sort of final proclamation. It's a whole new game now. The way Obama ran in the primary is going to be totally different from the general.

And there's one thing Obama has going for him that's HUGE: He beat the Clintons! No small feat!

[vociferous]

And there's one thing Obama has going for him that's HUGE: He beat the Clintons! No small feat!

Actually, if you tally up the popular vote, he did not; I am not saying that he was not the legitimate nominee, just like Bush was the legitimate winner in 2000, but I will point out that, just like in 2000, the "winning by the rules but loosing by the popular vote" aspect of his victory is going to make a lot of Hillary supporters very bitter, and where you look at the places he won (young voters, heavily Republican states, liberal voters, urban voters, black voters) and you look at where Hillary won (swing states, Latino voters, working and lower-middle class whites, Jews, the elderly), it does not bode well for Obama.

Young voters do not show up to the polls (and the few who do vote heavily Democratic anyway), urban and liberal voters are going to pick the Democrat no matter what, heavily Republican states are irrelevant in the general election, black voters always vote heavily Democratic no matter who the nominee is. Barrack lost heavily to Hillary among every demographic that will matter in the general election, so I think it is a bad harbinger for him. I was really surprised by how many super delegates decided to support him, but c'est la guerre.

[jimmysnyder]

You seem to have a prescient (though 180 degrees wrong!) insight into what I think. Perhaps you should read what I write ...

The US has to get beyond a 2-party system that can be gamed and twisted by the party heavies.

You want to get beyond a 2 party system, and yet when I tell people to vote for the candidate that they want, you say no, vote against someone you don't want, someone from one of the 2 parties. There is no way I could be anything other than 180 degrees wrong.

[Moonbear]

Actually, if you tally up the popular vote, he did not; I am not saying that he was not the legitimate nominee, just like Bush was the legitimate winner in 2000, but I will point out that, just like in 2000, the "winning by the rules but loosing by the popular vote" aspect of his victory is going to make a lot of Hillary supporters very bitter, and where you look at the places he won (young voters, heavily Republican states, liberal voters, urban voters, black voters) and you look at where Hillary won (swing states, Latino voters, working and lower-middle class whites, Jews, the elderly), it does not bode well for Obama.

Young voters do not show up to the polls (and the few who do vote heavily Democratic anyway), urban and liberal voters are going to pick the Democrat no matter what, heavily Republican states are irrelevant in the general election, black voters always vote heavily Democratic no matter who the nominee is. Barrack lost heavily to Hillary among every demographic that will matter in the general election, so I think it is a bad harbinger for him. I was really surprised by how many super delegates decided to support him, but c'est la guerre.

It's really unfortunate that the Democratic party uses a nomination process that almost ensures defeat in the general election. They seem to ignore the states where the decisions are really made and give the most weight to the states that are going to have Democrat victories regardless of which candidate runs. If they want to win the general election, they need to select candidates who can appeal beyond the traditional "blue states."

[quadraphonics]

Actually, if you tally up the popular vote, he did not

Since the popular vote is not the mechanism used to decide the contest, this line of thinking is irrelevant. Everyone involved would have campaigned differently if the popular vote had been the important thing, and so it's meaningless to evaluate the actual results under that metric. I understand that you're simply citing it as an example of why Hillary supporters might be bitter, but there are very good reasons why the popular vote is not used to decide the nomination, and it's telling that nobody gave a hoot about the popular vote until they got an outcome they didn't like.

Barrack lost heavily to Hillary among every demographic that will matter in the general election,

Well, then, I guess it's a good thing he's not running against Hillary in the general election. That the voters in question might have preferred Hillary to Obama does not imply that they're going to vote for McCain, or even that they're going to decline to vote. Obama still has plenty of time to reach out to them, and, given that Hillary is going to be supporting his campaign, all but the bitterest of losers will probably come around in the end.

Also, with regards to young and/or black voters, the remarkable thing about Obama campaign is not that he won those groups, but the unexpected surge in participation. So the expectation is that said groups will go to the polls for him in unusually large numbers.

[russ_watters]

Russ, I find it curious that McCain's flaws are based on facts while most of Obama's are not. Looking over the list again, I find it curious that you have that perception of it!

But people tend to look at things differently when they look at them from different angles. Most of the issues I listed for all three are a combination of facts and perceptions. Surely you don't think Obama is more angry than McCain? There's no doubt about which of those two has the bigger temper. "Angry black man" isn't a temper reference, it is a militant black reference (I did forget about McCain's temper, though - it should be on the list, though it hasn't made any news recently). It is a reference to the fact that his background, his associates, his wife! is militant black nationalism. He talks a good game, but whether he can sell people on him having outgrown his history is going to be a serious problem for him, especially considering how recent the history is, ie., with his church. As for the extremely liberal bit, that sounds like it needs more persistent debunking. I've never been part of the discussions, but I've seen where people posted ratings of congressmen and he's pretty consistently on the far left. A google finds it easily: he's the most liberal senator we have! http://nj.nationaljournal.com/voteratings/

So that's another fact...
In any case, I think McCain's biggest problem may be that he's taking the far right stance on so many issues lately, he no longer looks anything like the maverick he used to be a decade ago. That could be a problem, but we'll have to wait and see how he plays it in the campaign. Remember, he had a serious challenge from far-right conservatives during the early part of the primaries. He had to be more conservative. Then, after he wrapped-up the nomination, he started cutting ties with the far-right wing types. So we'll just have to see where he ends up during the campaign.

[russ_watters]

So you are saying that McCain will get the young vote, the black vote, and the fundamentalist vote? No, the point is that whether or not McCain gets those votes is a matter of how those votors perceive him on those issues. Jeez, the bias is thick in here! It's really simple, guys:

Old = fact
Too old = perception

And the reason I listed those issues - the whole point of that list - is that these are issues where the perception could create a real problem.

[russ_watters]

Here is the positives and negatives, as I see it:

With the laundry list of negatives against Obama, you'd think he'd stand no chance. But he's in the race at all almost exclusively because of one positive that you missed: charisma.

[vociferous]

Well, then, I guess it's a good thing he's not running against Hillary in the general election. That the voters in question might have preferred Hillary to Obama does not imply that they're going to vote for McCain, or even that they're going to decline to vote. Obama still has plenty of time to reach out to them, and, given that Hillary is going to be supporting his campaign, all but the bitterest of losers will probably come around in the end.

Also, with regards to young and/or black voters, the remarkable thing about Obama campaign is not that he won those groups, but the unexpected surge in participation. So the expectation is that said groups will go to the polls for him in unusually large numbers.

Polls showed that a lot more Hillary supporters would vote for McCain if Obama were the nominee than vice versa. I fully expect that most Hillary supporters will end up backing Obama, but the fact remains that some will not, and with many important States likely to be decided by a few votes, this could play a huge role.

As for young voters, in recent years, a large upswing in enthusiasm (again, something seen with Kerry in 2004) among the young during the primary is unlikely to translate to a significant increase at the ballot box. The only thing that keeps old people at home on election day is bad weather and Alzheimer's. Young voters always show up in abysmal numbers, and that seems pretty unlikely to change.

Is it possible that young voters might increase their participation in some significant way? Yes. Is it a good bet? Not a chance.

[quadraphonics]

Polls showed that a lot more Hillary supporters would vote for McCain if Obama were the nominee than vice versa.

Yeah, but people always say things like that during primary season, even though they don't mean them. They figure that the poll results will cow supporters of other candidates into backing their horse instead. Even if the sentiments are genuine, they still predate the general campaign wherein, again, Hillary will be encouraging her followers to vote for Obama.


I fully expect that most Hillary supporters will end up backing Obama, but the fact remains that some will not, and with many important States likely to be decided by a few votes, this could play a huge role.

This is getting awfully speculative for me. I'll agree that, should the election come down to a question of Florida and Ohio, Obama may be in trouble, but I'm not at all convinced that such will be the case. Nor am I convinced that Hillary wouldn't have just as much trouble in different places.


As for young voters, in recent years, a large upswing in enthusiasm (again, something seen with Kerry in 2004) among the young during the primary is unlikely to translate to a significant increase at the ballot box. The only thing that keeps old people at home on election day is bad weather and Alzheimer's. Young voters always show up in abysmal numbers, and that seems pretty unlikely to change.

Is it possible that young voters might increase their participation in some significant way? Yes. Is it a good bet? Not a chance.

Perhaps you're right, but I can't say that the same argument applies to black voters. Could be an interesting election in certain southern states...

[Gokul43201]

With the laundry list of negatives against Obama, you'd think he'd stand no chance. But he's in the race at all almost exclusively because of one positive that you missed: charisma.Here's another one: the character of his campaign!

[lisab]

Actually, if you tally up the popular vote, he did not;



Proof?

If you're relying on Clinton's numbers, please be aware that she a) does not count any votes in Michigan as Obama votes; and b) does not count any caucus states.

As someone who lives (and votes) in a caucus state, I find this maddening. She insists that all votes in Florida and and Michigan get counted, but then won't she count my vote? My state followed all the rules, and I have two days (because I was a delegate) invested into this process!

Besides, only delegates count, and that informs how the contestants run the race.

[vociferous]

Proof?

If you're relying on Clinton's numbers, please be aware that she a) does not count any votes in Michigan as Obama votes; and b) does not count any caucus states.

As someone who lives (and votes) in a caucus state, I find this maddening. She insists that all votes in Florida and and Michigan get counted, but then won't she count my vote? My state followed all the rules, and I have two days (because I was a delegate) invested into this process!

Besides, only delegates count, and that informs how the contestants run the race.


Obviously the claim is somewhat disputable, but major media sources seem to have concluded that when you add up the actual numbers, Clinton seems to have more votes than Obama by most reasonable standards. Obviously, Caucus states are not going to count because they have no numbers to provide.

Like you wrote, the rules are ultimately what counts, and unless Clinton sucessfully challenges the Florida and Michigan decisions (seems more likely that she will concede soon), Obama has won by the rules. Just like in 2000, Bush lost the popular vote but won by the law. Somehow, I think if the super delegates had decided to push Clinton over the winning threshold, a lot of Obama supporters would be pretty bitter.

At the end of the day, the delegates actually did not matter; it was the super delegates, the elite Democrats who decided the election, not the will of the majority of Democratic primary voters. It is no wonder that so many Hillary supporters are bitter, and will be of little surprise to me if a lot of them stay home, vote McCain, or write in Hillary in November.

The primary system has worked well because one candidate generally obtains an insurmountable lead. When you have two candidates finishing in a virtual dead tie, with the party elites deciding the winner, you have a recipe for disaster and defeat in November. I wish that the Democrats would use this as a lesson to overhaul the primary system. Either the elites should pick the nominee (like in the old days), or it should be made into a popular contest. The candidate with the most votes wins.

[Ivan Seeking]

No, the point is that whether or not McCain gets those votes is a matter of how those votors perceive him on those issues. Jeez, the bias is thick in here! It's really simple, guys:

Old = fact
Too old = perception

And the reason I listed those issues - the whole point of that list - is that these are issues where the perception could create a real problem.

I was responding to seycyrus but didn't make that clear.

[Ivan Seeking]

Actually, if you tally up the popular vote, he did not; I am not saying that he was not the legitimate nominee, just like Bush was the legitimate winner in 2000, but I will point out that, just like in 2000

This is not true because we don't have caucuses in the general election. This entire notion that one can claim the most votes without counting caucuses is precisely the sort of Clinton double-speak that helped to cost her the election [and got her husband impeached!].

[Ivan Seeking]

...But people tend to look at things differently when they look at them from different angles. Most of the issues I listed for all three are tion of facts and perceptions. "Angry black man" isn't a temper reference, it is a militant black reference (I did forget about McCain's temper, though - it should be on the list, though it hasn't made any news recently). It is a reference to the fact that his background, his associates, his wife! is militant black nationalism.

How did you come up with that one? I think you are just making that up.

Following high school, Obama moved to Los Angeles, where he studied at Occidental College for two years.[8] He then transferred to Columbia University in New York City, where he majored in political science with a specialization in international relations.[9] Obama graduated with a B.A. from Columbia in 1983, then worked at Business International Corporation and New York Public Interest Research Group.[10][11]

After four years in New York City, Obama moved to Chicago to work as a community organizer for three years from June 1985 to May 1988 as director of the Developing Communities Project (DCP), a church-based community organization originally comprised of eight Catholic parishes in Greater Roseland (Roseland, West Pullman, and Riverdale) on Chicago's far South Side.[10][12] During his three years as the DCP's director, its staff grew from 1 to 13 and its annual budget grew from $70,000 to $400,000, with accomplishments including helping set up a job training program, a college preparatory tutoring program, and a tenants' rights organization in Altgeld Gardens.[13] Obama also worked as a consultant and instructor for the Gamaliel Foundation, a community organizing institute.[14] In summer 1988, he traveled for the first time to Europe for three weeks then Kenya for five weeks where he met many of his Kenyan relatives for the first time.[15]

He entered Harvard Law School in 1988.[16] His election in 1990 as the first black president of the Harvard Law Review was widely reported.[17] Obama graduated with a J.D. magna cum laude from Harvard in 1991, then returned to Chicago where he headed a voter registration drive and began writing his first book, Dreams from My Father, a memoir published in 1995.[18]

Obama worked as an associate attorney with Davis, Miner, Barnhill & Galland from 1993 to 2002. After 1996, he worked at the firm only during the summer, when the Illinois Senate was not in session.[19] Obama worked on cases where the firm represented community organizers, pursued discrimination claims, and on voting rights cases. He also spent time on real estate transactions, filing incorporation papers and defending clients against minor lawsuits.[20] Mostly he drew up briefs, contracts, and other legal documents as a junior associate on legal teams.[20] Obama taught constitutional law part-time at the University of Chicago Law School from 1993 until his election to the U.S. Senate in 2004.[21]

Obama was a founding member of the board of directors of Public Allies in 1992, resigning before his wife, Michelle, became the founding executive director of Public Allies Chicago in spring 1993.[10][22] He served on the board of directors of the Woods Fund of Chicago, which in 1985 had been the first foundation to fund Obama's DCP, from 1993–2002,[10][23][24][25] and served on the board of directors of The Joyce Foundation from 1994–2002.[10][24][26] Obama served on the board of directors of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge from 1995–2002, as founding president and chairman of the board of directors from 1995–1999.[10][23][27] He also served on the board of directors of the Chicago Lawyers' Committee for Civil Rights Under Law, the Center for Neighborhood Technology, and the Lugenia Burns Hope Center.[10]
wiki

Yes Russ, they always put angry black radicals in charge of the Harvard Law Review. :rolleyes:

[jimmysnyder]

Obama is going to be Hillary's hanging chad. She'll push for him, but she won't push hard. Even now she maintains a web site, Hillarious blog. (http://blog.hillaryclinton.com/blog/main/2008/06/04/030945#view_comments) in which people write about how the DNC hijacked the nomination, that they would never vote for Obama, and about a write-in campaign for Hillary. And yet Hillary wants Obama and the DNC to provide her with money for her campaign which is paying for that web site. This amazes me.

[Gokul43201]

And in that Blog, any entries pointing out McCain's anti-feminist history are deleted, while entries insulting Obama are allowed. I know because I tried.

[jimmysnyder]

And in that Blog, any entries pointing out McCain's anti-feminist history are deleted, while entries insulting Obama are allowed. I know because I tried.
I admire your empirical approach. I'm going to try to add an entry insulting Obama too.

[seycyrus]

I said they were based on facts - that he is pretty old and pretty white are facts. Whether the age or the whiteness is a serious enough factor is in the eye of the beholder.
Those are subjective calls, not facts.

Ain't no bias.

You are making credibility calls on the perception of the *facts*. If we go over them one at a time using the same criteria, it is quite plain to see that the*facts* for Obama are just subjective as real as those for McCain.

Obama

[seycyrus]

I said they were based on facts - that he is pretty old and pretty white are facts. Whether the age or the whiteness is a serious enough factor is in the eye of the beholder.
Those are subjective calls, not facts.

Ain't no bias.

You are making credibility calls on your perception of the basis for these *facts*. If we go over them one at a time using the same criteria, it is quite plain to see that the*facts* for Obama are just as subjective as those for McCain.

Obama
Angry Black Man - Based on the very real fact of some emotionally charged speeches given by Wright (Doesn't he even identify himself as angry in one of his speeches?) and perhaps others. One might question the legitimacy and/or the strength of the connection between Obama and these statements, but we cannot make the claim that this flaw is not being based on a fact.

Angry Black Wife - Very factually based. If she continues to make statements along the same lines that she made earlier, without modification, it will cost Obama a significant percentage of votes.

Muslim - Okay, this one is stupid.

Age - Certainly based on fact. Obama being young can be directly contrasted to McCain being old. it's a stigma of society that in general, people get older as they age. Are you more or less wiser than you were 20 years ago? :)

Experience - Compared to mcCain, he certainly has at least more quantitative experience. Many would say qualitiative as well. This goes hand in hand with McCain being OLD.

Extremely liberal - Liberal is based on facts. Extremely could be viewed as subjective, but certainly not as subjective as the term "wishy-washy".

Your bias lies in your assignment of legitimacy.

[Gokul43201]

You are making credibility calls on the perception of the *facts*.No, I'm not. I agree that the perceptions exist. I was making the observation that in one case, the perceptions were much more based on facts than in the other case.

If we go over them one at a time using the same criteria, it is quite plain to see that the*facts* for Obama are just subjective as real as those for McCain.I don't understand that sentence, but sure, we can go over the points and decide which ones are based on facts, and which not.

McCain:
Not very right wing=hard to say...used to be a fact, but not so much recently
Old=fact
White=fact
Pro-life=limited truth, pro-life only in certain circumstances
lobbyist issues=fact
affair with 25-year old millionairess beauty queen after wife was crippled=fact

Obama:
Angry/militant black man=not fact (angry/militant) + fact (black man)
Angry/militant black wife=not fact(angry/militant) + fact (black wife)
muslim=not fact
age/experience=fact
liberalness=disputed (two different studies rank him very differently)

ObamaNice sig.

[Evo]

I absolutely cannot believe how stupid these people on Hillary's blog are. This is how many people vote though, which is really, really scary. They vote on a personal level. Forget all about the trivial fact that this person is going to run our country for the next 4 years.

You'd think these people were voting from Prom Queen.

[Gokul43201]

Obama
Angry Black Man - Based on the very real fact of some emotionally charged speeches given by Wright (Doesn't he even identify himself as angry in one of his speeches?) and perhaps others. One might question the legitimacy and/or the strength of the connection between Obama and these statements, but we cannot make the claim that this flaw is not being based on a fact.That fact is only evidence that Wright is an angry, black man - not Obama.

Angry Black Wife - Very factually based. If she continues to make statements along the same lines that she made earlier, without modification, it will cost Obama a significant percentage of votes.I must have missed these angry rants from Michelle. Which ones were they?

Muslim - Okay, this one is stupid.

Age - Certainly based on fact. Obama being young can be directly contrasted to McCain being old. it's a stigma of society that in general, people get older as they age. Are you more or less wiser than you were 20 years ago? :)Depends on whether I'm 25 or 95.

But I agree on both counts.

Experience - Compared to mcCain, he certainly has at least more quantitative experience. Many would say qualitiative as well. This goes hand in hand with McCain being OLD.I think you may have miswritten that, but the point is undisputed.

Extremely liberal - Liberal is based on facts. Extremely could be viewed as subjective, but certainly not as subjective as the term "wishy-washy".If by liberal, you mean he is a member of the Democratic party, that is an undisputed fact. If by the word, you mean he is among the leftmost fringe of the party, that is very much in dispute. We are talking here about a very openly religious person who has written and sponsored a greater fraction of his legislation with Republicans than almost every other democrat.

[jimmysnyder]

I must have missed these angry rants from Michelle. Which ones were they?
This one gets a lot of play:

For the first time in my adult lifetime, I'm really proud of my country

Before that, she was ideally proud. (http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/02/michelle-obam-1.html)

[seycyrus]

That fact is only evidence that Wright is an angry, black man - not Obama.

Well certainly. I tried to point that out. One can watch Obama speak and see that he is not angry. I don't think Russ was saying that Obama is an angry person. His connection to ABM is the flaw.

I must have missed these angry rants from Michelle. Which ones were they?

Ok. I sorta glossed over the *angry* part and replaced it with *not proud of her country for the majority of her life*



If by liberal, you mean he is a member of the Democratic party, that is an undisputed fact. If by the word, you mean he is among the leftmost fringe of the party, that is very much in dispute.

Does he go on the liberal shelf or the conservative shelf?


By my modified count, it seems to be 4-3 more McCain McCain fact than Obama facts. Certainly don't see that *Most* of Obamas are not based on fact.

[Gokul43201]

This one gets a lot of play:



Before that, she was ideally proud. (http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2008/02/michelle-obam-1.html)I've heard that one, but that may explain that Michelle is proud, or maybe dishonest, or disgruntled, or she just said something stupid. I don't see how this makes her an angry, militant black wife.

[seycyrus]

I've heard that one, but that may explain that Michelle is proud, or maybe dishonest, or disgruntled, or she just said something stupid. I don't see how this makes her an angry, militant black wife.

Most people equate pride as an extension of being happy or satisfied with something.

If you apply the converse of her statement (which might be a logical fallacy in the strictest sense) it appears that for the majority of her life, she was unhappy with her country...

Which leads to the dark side, young jedi.

[lisab]

Most people equate pride as an extension of being happy or satisfied with something.

If you apply the converse of her statement (which might be a logical fallacy in the strictest sense) it appears that for the majority of her life, she was unhappy with her country...

Which leads to the dark side, young jedi.

She was proud; now (for the first time) she's really proud. And this makes her militant? Quite a stretch. Not very logical.

[Gokul43201]

By my modified count, it seems to be 4-3 more McCain McCain fact than Obama facts. Certainly don't see that *Most* of Obamas are not based on fact.After the points about Obama and Michelle's angry militantism are rewritten so they are actually about Obama's church problem (which is a big issue) and Michelle's statement about her pride (which may also be a big deal, but no worse than Cindy's drug abuse/theft problems), then I admit that the list is more balanced.

[seycyrus]

She was proud; now (for the first time) she's really proud. And this makes her militant? Quite a stretch. Not very logical.

Oh c'mon on now. In the one speech she just said "proud", not really proud. In the other, which came later, she said *really proud*.

Regardless, we're talking about the perception of her comments.

Are you on a one woman campaign to change this perception? If so, don't bother with me, I don't think Michelle is an ABW. You're wasting your energy.

[lisab]

You first posted,

Angry Black Wife - Very factually based. If she continues to make statements along the same lines that she made earlier, without modification, it will cost Obama a significant percentage of votes.

Now you say,



I don't think Michelle is an ABW.



My one-woman campaign must have worked :wink: !

[seycyrus]

You first posted,



Now you say,



My one-woman campaign must have worked :wink: !

Notice how her second speech was in fact, modified from the first. She must have read my post on PF and time travelled back.