Betting on a Winner

[Gokul43201]

Just for the heck of it...let's see how the political analysts on PF fare.

So who do you think is going to win the US Presidential Elections (not "who you'd vote for" but "who you think will win" ) ?

NOTE : The poll is a public poll. It closes on 10 Sep 2004.

[BobG]

Kerry, for reasons posted in "Bush or Kerry".

Both the economy and Iraq are working against Bush.

[Gza]

I'm going to "flip flop" from what I said in the "kerry or bush" thread and go with kerry. :biggrin:

[jimmy p]

Republicans and Democrats were both 5/6 to win the presidential elections last time I checked.

[GENIERE]

I voted 5 :biggrin: times for the President. I know I can do better in the real voting booth.

[phatmonky]

Bush by 8 points.

[Robert Zaleski]

I voted 5 :biggrin: times for the President. I know I can do better in the real voting booth.
At least your a real flesh and blood person. The Democrats register an army of the dead to vote.

[wasteofo2]

At least your a real flesh and blood person. The Democrats register an army of the dead to vote.
You're just mad 'cause zombies don't like your health-care system :rofl:

[Smurf]

No, bush is ruining the economy, the bilderbergers (big corporations) dont like that and will oust him in favour of kerry

[humanino]

Apparently looks good to me. I agree with the majority so far. But that's very few votes here, maybe it is not significant.

In France, the famous newspaper "Le Monde" is sometimes really hard on Bush choices. I do not even mention "Le Monde Diplomatique" which I love, but is really utopic somehow. That is those reading which lead me to believe Bush must loose. Besides, I saw a recent issue of "The Economist" entitled "Je ne regrette rien" (en francais dans le texte :approve:) : the economist (http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_id=3127865&subject=DC). The Economist is very politically correct, but here they seem to me not so supportive to your president.

[Gokul43201]

I think Bush will win - unless something happens in the debates and people finally understand the meaning of the word 'puppet'.

[FaverWillets]

I voted 5 :biggrin: times for the President. I know I can do better in the real voting booth.
Well, sure, IF that voting booth is in Dade County, FL.

[FaverWillets]

At least your a real flesh and blood person. The Democrats register an army of the dead to vote.
They don't just summarily erase registered voters from their rolls in an act of abject desperation masquerading as routine "housekeepong" expedience.

[FaverWillets]

Kerry, for reasons posted in "Bush or Kerry".

Both the economy and Iraq are working against Bush.
Could it be that Bush is working against Bush too....or.....could it be..............SATAN?

[Gokul43201]

Clearly even PF members go by their hearts, not their minds, when it comes to something like this.

All the polls show Bush ahead by about 10 points. Yet all the liberals (except for Adam) have picked Kerry to win. :confused:

[FaverWillets]

Clearly even PF members go by their hearts, not their minds, when it comes to something like this.

All the polls show Bush ahead by about 10 points. Yet all the liberals (except for Adam) have picked Kerry to win. :confused:


I, for one, admit defeat already. Bush will win because the Primary system used to select our party candidates is no less flawed than the old "party boss" system. The media seems to be the one that gives momentum to frontrunners, so that their efforts in upcoming primaries/caucuses virtually assures their success at winning enough delegates for nomination... hmmm well there was that thing with Dean........nevermind... who'd a thunk it at the time though? Kerry does not impress me as the BEST choice to win against an incumbent. Edwards does, but he isn't THE candidate... Kerry and Mrs. Tootsie-Heinz Kerry are unlikely to win in my estimation... still, being hardcore antiBush, I don't give a good ****amn! I'll do down with the {swift} boat guy by casting my vote for the TRUE truth...not the Swift-Boat Veterans for Truth that is reminiscent of say, The Democratic-Republic of East Berlin, or The People's Republic of North Korea....

[russ_watters]

As I've been saying now for something like a year: its a foregone conclusion that Bush will win. The Democrats really need to take a step back and fix their party.

[Gokul43201]

As I've been saying now for something like a year: its a foregone conclusion that Bush will win. The Democrats really need to take a step back and fix their party.

If Bush wins, it will have nothing to do with with what right or wrong with either party. It's just that the Republicans are far better at campaigning (and the people are far too naive), and that's what usually counts.

[Gokul43201]

As I've been saying now for something like a year: its a foregone conclusion that Bush will win. The Democrats really need to take a step back and fix their party.

C'mon russ. You couldn't have known this for sure, a year ago - and it's not even certain now.

[FaverWillets]

If Bush wins, it will have nothing to do with with what right or wrong with either party. It's just that the Republicans are far better at campaigning (and the people are far too naive), and that's what usually counts.

Correcto Grasshopper: In my part of the country we call it marketing...and in politics the Republicans have had it sewn up for ages... trivia moment, by whom and when was this quote made?

"...I have an idea, if Republicans will stop lying about Democrats, we'll stop telling the truth about Republicans."

[Gokul43201]

I didn't know who said this - though I've heard it so many times (kinda like I don't know who first said "To err is Truman") - so I Googled it.

Nice tidbit !

[The_Professional]

To be realistic, Bush will win. That's my story and I'm sticking to it! :biggrin:

[FaverWillets]

To be realistic, Bush will win. That's my story and I'm sticking to it! :biggrin:


Not me, I cannot stomach the THOUGHT of four more years of this dullard and his band of thugs.

[Gokul43201]

To Quote Mick Jagger : "You can't always get what you want" :uhh:

[flexten]

Bush, because the Clintons are helping him, the Wicked Witch of the East wants to run next time.

[Pyrovus]

If the last election's anything to go by, Bush will get a second term, regardless of who wins.

[phatmonky]

If the last election's anything to go by, Bush will get a second term, regardless of who wins.

har har har! I made a joke about Bush stealing the election, despite there being a statistical tie in FLorida, recount after recount finding in favor of Bush, Gore not wanting a recount of all of Florida, and the Supreme court finding for Bush. Somehow, if a lot of people are upset with having Bush in power, history should be undone - too bad you guys just don't learn to move on (ha, look at that pun) or perhaps you'd have a compitent competitor to Bush right now. 4 years to come up with something, and Kerry is it?! :rofl:

[russ_watters]

If Bush wins, it will have nothing to do with with what right or wrong with either party. It's just that the Republicans are far better at campaigning (and the people are far too naive), and that's what usually counts. I submit that the reason Kerry got no bounce after his convention is that he doesn't stand for anything, only against Bush. And the fact that he's the best candidate the party could find tells me the party is having some problems. The people just aren't buying what the party is selling.

A similar situation existed in 2000 - Gore felt the need to disconnect himself from one of the most popular Presidents in history in his campaign. That he was unsuccessful is often cited as the reason he lost the election. How can it be that he had to do that? Bush Sr. won largely by riding the Reagan wave. Why couldn't Gore win by riding the Clinton wave?C'mon russ. You couldn't have known this for sure, a year ago - and it's not even certain now. Its a prediction, Gokul. I don't have esp and I don't claim to: when I say its a foregone conclusion, I mean the problems in the Democratic party that have been festering since Clinton left office (since the campaign in 2000) have been leading them down the path they are on now. The result will be long term Republican domination of the US government and an eventual re-construction of the Democratic party.

Its often said that 45% of the population will vote democrat regardles of who the candidate is and 45% will vote republican regardless of who he candidate is. The remaining 10% are who decide elections. When it comes time to make a decision, those 10% will decide to vote for someone, not against someone.

Now, the reason I stated previously is the economy: the economy is generally what wins elections. While it hasn't been a stellar recovery (less than expected), people still recognize that the economy is in a recovery. Because of that, people will choose to vote for Bush.

[humanino]

I submit that the reason Kerry got no bounce after his convention is that he doesn't stand for anything, only against Bush.
That is a very relevant point. I find it very sad, yet that would be enough for me in this very specific case :tongue2:

No, that's not even funny. The world is doomed to cowboy's rules :cry:

[russ_watters]

Clearly even PF members go by their hearts, not their minds, when it comes to something like this. I submit that that's largely a liberal trait.

[JohnDubYa]

f Bush wins, it will have nothing to do with with what right or wrong with either party. It's just that the Republicans are far better at campaigning (and the people are far too naive), and that's what usually counts.

Gokul, you're supposed to wait until AFTER the election before posting sour grapes. (Similar things were said after Clinton was elected.)

In my opinion, the Democrats simply picked the wrong man. They thought that if they propped up a war hero against Bush the country would just swoon. The Swift Boat Veterans took care of that. Love 'em or hate 'em, the Swift Boat Veterans have decided this election because they rained on the only parade Kerry offered the public.

Could it all change? Sure. All the Democrats have to do is wake the dead.

[FaverWillets]

Gokul, you're supposed to wait until AFTER the election before posting sour grapes. (Similar things were said after Clinton was elected.)

In my opinion, the Democrats simply picked the wrong man. They thought that if they propped up a war hero against Bush the country would just swoon. The Swift Boat Veterans took care of that. Love 'em or hate 'em, the Swift Boat Veterans have decided this election because they rained on the only parade Kerry offered the public.

Could it all change? Sure. All the Democrats have to do is wake the dead.

Well DubYa, you do have a strong grasp of situation. It doesn't matter that those few Swift-Boat Veterans when interview contradicted their claims of first hand information ie, "..I know, I was there." No one is listening. This is why I say that the Republicans are going to win...they have NO scrupples or moral compunction about lying in order to win the White House for four more years... the Swift-Boat Veteran's for Truth is akin to say... The Democratic-Republic of East Berlin, or the Peoples Democratic-Republic of North Korea.... I have to almost admire the Swift boat boys... all one has to do is put it on television...because it's negative, people WILL believe it...doesn't matter that it's lies, distortions of fact because of an agenda...they resented his testimony given to Congress when he returned from the War so they have masterfully put together their campaign of lies and misinformation to advance their agenda.... the thing about conservatives is that they will allow you to say whatever you want so long as it supports their narrow points of view, hence, The Patriot Act...the shining example of the single greatest threat to the Bill of Rights since the days of J. Edgar Hoover. I don't understand their resentments toward Kerry... Kerry PAID THE PRICE to do what he did if he so chose... and he did not betray these Swift Boat liars... this latest bit about Kerry "...giving the Viet Cong for free what they were tortured for..." is sheer bull. Anyone who cares can investigate this, but like DubYa understands, they wont....it's just too much trouble to do that. So, the Republicans are the better at sacking and selling it... I wish the Dems would wake up and start fighting fire with fire. But alas, Kerry IS NOT the best choice to defeat this incumbant... Bush enjoys the home court advantage, most incumbants do. For myself, Edwards would have been the best and the brightest choice for the Dems... anyway, we shall see what transpires between now and November...it ain't over till its over!

[JohnDubYa]

Well DubYa, you do have a strong grasp of situation. It doesn't matter that those few Swift-Boat Veterans when interview contradicted their claims of first hand information ie, "..I know, I was there." No one is listening. This is why I say that the Republicans are going to win...they have NO scrupples or moral compunction about lying in order to win the White House for four more years... the Swift-Boat Veteran's for Truth is akin to say... The Democratic-Republic of East Berlin, or the Peoples Democratic-Republic of North Korea....

Post a reasonable argument. Then I'll respond.

[FaverWillets]

Post a reasonable argument. Then I'll respond.

When a campaign is waged with half truths, outright lies and innuendo as in using Laci Peterson's name alongside John Kerry's in a Pro Bush commercial is NOT REASONABLE to this argument??? That among ALL Swift-Boat Veterans for Truth who did grant interviews to the media contradicted their statements made in their commercials, they lied, plain and simple...that Bush claims that the war in Iraq makes America safe??? I really don't depend on your response to vote in November. I know what I must do, and hope that your overall position that Bush WILL win will turn out to be incorrect. I've already supported YOUR contention that Bush will likely win. I am just calling it the way it is...he can't hope to win playing fair...he is just too slow to dare to attempt any live debates...so he hides behind his campaign of distortions and misinformation. The Republican SPIN on truth is really something to behold...they can sack and sell cow manure to cattle ranchers in Wyoming.

[humanino]

Now this is getting really close :uhh:
10 to 11 right now. And it is more and more significant.

We only succeded to prove that nobody can tell.

[russ_watters]

FaverWillets, the Swift Boat Vets have made an impact because of the publicity they generated, but their actual part in the campaign is a tiny fraction of what Kerry is getting from similar groups (by that, I mean $$$-wise). The difference (imo) is the way the Kerry ads are presented - putting out an ad of the Statue of Liberty wearing a black hood as MoveOn.org did offends everyone and doesn't help Kerry out at all. The media reports on those ads were limited to discussing how repulsive they were - not whether the content had any merrit.

[JohnDubYa]

When a campaign is waged with half truths, outright lies and innuendo as in using Laci Peterson's name alongside John Kerry's in a Pro Bush commercial is NOT REASONABLE to this argument???

John Kerry voted against the Unborn Victims Of Violence Act (UVVA), of which Laci Peterson's murder was easily the most high-profile example. In fact, the bill was often called the Laci Peterson Law. To use her name in an advertisement is reasonable since the Lace Peterson Law is a perfectly valid campaign issue.

That is why I said earlier I would refuse to respond as long as you resorted to hyperbole. To suggest that the Swift Boat Veterans are analogous to Communist governments is not only strange, but unhelpful. Why not post what they said and their later comments that (supposedly) show they lied?


How is such hysteria going to further the discussion? Why not go ahead and use all-caps and multiple exclamation points? Might as well, since you have the ranting bit down pat.

As for lying, was John Kerry in Cambodia on Christmas Eve as he clearly stated in a previous interview?

[BobG]

John Kerry voted against the Unborn Victims Of Violence Act (UVVA), of which Laci Peterson's murder was easily the most high-profile example. In fact, the bill was often called the Laci Peterson Law. To use her name in an advertisement is reasonable since the Lace Peterson Law is a perfectly valid campaign issue.



JohnDubYa's right.

Taking a pro-choice stance puts Kerry (and others) in a sticky situation on that law. You can't be pro-choice and support the UVVA law, since the whole premise for legalization of abortion is that the unborn have no rights. The alternative proposed by the pro-choice side really didn't fully cover the situation since, if the mother lives and the unborn child dies, you can't bring murder charges (Kerry supported the pro-choice side's alternative).

A bit heavy on the symbolism and (arguably) an over simplification of the issue, but the ad does at least pertain to a valid issue.

[Gokul43201]

To suggest that the Swift Boat Veterans are analogous to Communist governments is not only strange, but unhelpful.

I believe Faver was trying to point out a seeming contradiction in the name (SBV for "Truth"), just as North Korea is anything but Democratic, but still goes by the name "Dem." People's Rep. of Korea.

[Gokul43201]

A bit heavy on the symbolism and (arguably) an over simplification of the issue, but the ad does at least pertain to a valid issue.

It's brilliant strategy. An overwhelming majority of the population are Laci sympathizers, and so by making Kerry her enemy, makes Kerry everybody's enemy.

Also, I'd add an 'un' before your 'arguably', but so is the matter provided in any 30 or 60 second commercial.

[The_Professional]

Speaking of Kerry, I think he should fire his campaign manager for emphasizing his Vietnam service. It certainly didn't help his cause, it did more damage to his reputation and the perception of voters.

As far as next next election goes. I would like to see Giuliani and Hillary Clinton duke it out.

[FaverWillets]

The_Professional Speaking of Kerry, I think he should fire his campaign manager for emphasizing his Vietnam service. It certainly didn't help his cause, it did more damage to his reputation and the perception of voters.

As far as next next election goes. I would like to see Guiliani and Hillary Clinton duke it out.
Yesterday 04:53 PM


That would be like.... Godzilla meets King Kong! It would make for one of the most interesting Presidential elections in decades......hope it happens.

[GENIERE]

That would be like.... Godzilla meets King Kong! It would make for one of the most interesting Presidential elections in decades......hope it happens.
You must be drinking too much tea. It would be Godzilla (Guiliani) or King Kong (McCain) vs. Cannon fodder.

[JohnDubYa]

Godzilla meets King Kong!

I would rather look at King Kong than Hillary.

[FaverWillets]

I would rather look at King Kong than Hillary.


LOL Well, I DO stand corrected on those choices...though, Hillary thinks very fast on her feet, as a debater should would make mince meat of her adversary...it would Gulliani or McCain to level the field in a debate against her..debating is not Bush's forte, nor was it Gore's in 2000.

And, we can't have McCain head to head with Guilliani now can we? By the way, there has never been a former mayor of NYC ever to run for President and win. Guilliani could become the exception. The 2008 election year will be a welcome site to this current mess.

[FaverWillets]

Speaking of Kerry, I think he should fire his campaign manager for emphasizing his Vietnam service. It certainly didn't help his cause, it did more damage to his reputation and the perception of voters.

As far as next next election goes. I would like to see Giuliani and Hillary Clinton duke it out.
I thought I heard that Kerry has now hired Michael Dukakis' former campaign manager.... oiy vayyyy... Isn't that like hiring the former captain of the Exxon Valdez to teach new students how to pilot super tankers? { this actually did happen by the way...and after he grounded the tanker while drunk on his butt.}

[JohnDubYa]

Well, we don't have any footage of Kerry driving a tank. So it makes sense I guess.

[FaverWillets]

Well, we don't have any footage of Kerry driving a tank. So it makes sense I guess.


It appears that his Swift Boat has capsized too. Like a monkey with a football...! The Dems are truly a mess...have been since Lyndon Banes started his illegal war in '65.

[JohnDubYa]

I wouldn't let JFK off the hook regarding Vietnam either.

[BobG]

When a campaign is waged with half truths, outright lies and innuendo as in using Laci Peterson's name alongside John Kerry's in a Pro Bush commercial is NOT REASONABLE to this argument??? That among ALL Swift-Boat Veterans for Truth who did grant interviews to the media contradicted their statements made in their commercials, they lied, plain and simple...that Bush claims that the war in Iraq makes America safe??? I really don't depend on your response to vote in November. I know what I must do, and hope that your overall position that Bush WILL win will turn out to be incorrect. I've already supported YOUR contention that Bush will likely win. I am just calling it the way it is...he can't hope to win playing fair...he is just too slow to dare to attempt any live debates...so he hides behind his campaign of distortions and misinformation. The Republican SPIN on truth is really something to behold...they can sack and sell cow manure to cattle ranchers in Wyoming.

While JohnDubya is right about the Laci Peterson ad, but there's a big difference between that ad and the Swift Boat ads.

The Laci Peterson angle lures you into the room with the shiny coin and asks:

"Surely you've seen this coin before, haven't you? Are you sure? Maybe you've only looked at the other side."

And then shows you it's the other side of the pro-choice coin.

"Your choice. You have to choose one or the other. You can't choose both."

The key is that it's the same coin.

The Swift Boat ads lure you into the room with a fake coin (very fake, in this case, since just about everything they say is a blatant lie), then sweep it away under the desk and lead you to the other coin:

"This is what we really wanted to show you. See, isn't this coin a lot more interesting?"

A tactic more fitting for the Moonies roaming college campuses back in the 70's than for a presidential campaign.

[kat]

The Swift Boat ads lure you into the room with a fake coin (very fake, in this case, since just about everything they say is a blatant lie), then sweep it away under the desk and lead you to the other coin:

"This is what we really wanted to show you. See, isn't this coin a lot more interesting?"

A tactic more fitting for the Moonies roaming college campuses back in the 70's than for a presidential campaign.

Exactly which statements have they made that you're claiming to be a "blatant lie"?

[JohnDubYa]

Right on, kat. We have given the SBV's a free pass on this allegation for too long.

And did Kerry lie about his Holiday in Cambodia (with apologies to the Dead Kennedys, who are probably voting for Kerry)?