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How to calculate confidence limits in bernoulli trials with only one outcome. 
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#1
May1207, 01:15 AM

P: 2

I have this problem that I have been trying to figure out all week and can't seem to get.
I have a process that produces one of two outcomes "OK" (in some unknown porportion: p) or "NOT OK" (in porportion q = 1p). Lets say I ran the process [x] times (like 20) in a row and it reported "OK" each time. How can I calculated a 1sided (or 2sided) 95% confidence interval for the value of p? I think I should be assigning a value of "1" to "OK" and "0" to "NOT OK" and then applying the conventional confidence interval calculations using the tdistribution. The problem I run into is that all I observe are "OK" then my std deviation goes to 0 and the whole thing falls apart. Is there another method? What am I missing? Thanks, much appreciated. 


#2
May1207, 01:51 AM

P: 2

After more searching on this forum, I found a reference to something called the adjusted/modified wald method and the LaPlace method. It seems like those are good candidates to apply to this problem.



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