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Geometric Brownian motion/stock price |
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| Jun28-12, 10:09 AM | #1 |
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Geometric Brownian motion/stock price
I'm tying to solve a stochastic differential equation of stock price. The equation is
[itex]dX = X(\mu dt + \sigma dW)[/itex] where [itex]\mu, \sigma[/itex] are constants and greater than zero. It is easy to show analytically that the expectation value to the solution is [itex]E[X(t)] = E[X(0)] e^{\mu t}[/itex] Then I solved this equation numerically by standard Euler method to check my analysis. I found that if [itex]\sigma[/itex] is less than some particular value, my numerical solution is consistent with the analytical solution which is increasing with time. The problem is when [itex]\sigma[/itex] is greater some number, the numerical solution tends to go to zero instead of increasing with time. Note that [itex]\mu[/itex] is the same. What happens? I read another book. They told me that if [itex]\mu > \sigma^2/2[/itex] then [itex]Prob\{X(t \rightarrow \infty )=\infty \} = 1[/itex], and if [itex]\mu < \sigma^2/2[/itex] [itex]Prob\{X(t \rightarrow \infty ) = 0 \} = 1[/itex], where [itex]X(t)[/itex] is the Ito solution. For the second case, the probabilistic value is not consistent the expectation value, isn't it? Can you help me about these two different answers? |
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