What will improve Republicans chances next time?


by rootX
Tags: chances, improve, republicans, time
russ_watters
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#37
Nov8-12, 10:45 AM
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I'm not blissfully unaware, I'm dispassionate. What I know is this:

1. The choice of Romney vs Obama is much more likely to affect economic policy than abortion policy.
2. Economic policy directly affects everyone, but abortion policy does not.

I don't know if there is an opposite of "blissfully unaware", but if there is, it would be defined as reacting strongly to an issue because it is highly emotionally charged, even though it has little practical impact.
ParticleGrl
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#38
Nov8-12, 11:16 AM
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1. The choice of Romney vs Obama is much more likely to affect economic policy than abortion policy.
Even this isn't necessarily true. MA Mitt, the technocrat, wouldn't be much different than Obama in policy. Primary Mitt/campaign Mitt until the first debate would very different. Its hard to know exactly what he was running on because they never released detailed plans (what tax loop holes did he want to close?), and because he made so many conflicting statements.

Also- remember that it has been a republican strategy to pull out the base on issues like Abortion, gay-rights,etc, primarily because a lot of their economic policy is unpopular.
russ_watters
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#39
Nov8-12, 11:39 AM
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Particlegirl, the US carbon emission reduction has virtually nothing to do with the world economic situation. It is almost exclusively the result of tecnological advancements in methane extraction.

I should probably start a new thread on this because I don't think many people are aware of what has happened.
Pythagorean
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#40
Nov8-12, 11:42 AM
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For the people that may actually like Rep economic policy, but think human rights are more important, I think Reps could actually increase their base significantly if they stopped intruding (or enabling the intruders in their party) on gay/women's rights. It's a matter of principle.

There were a lot of example of ignorance with regard to pregnancy this election cycle, all Republican who were in office. Even if they're not representative, that's the impression the public is given.
russ_watters
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#41
Nov8-12, 11:49 AM
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Also, browsing the exit polls, it looks to me like another popular assumption is bunk:

-More educated people favored Obama? Nope.

I also think Republican economic policy is more popular than Democrats are willing to admit, but I'm going to need to research that.
D H
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#42
Nov8-12, 12:05 PM
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Quote Quote by ParticleGrl View Post
I don't think 'continue to create global depressions' is a long term strategy for reducing carbon emissions. If carbon were reducing because of actual shifts in output, instead of just less output, it might be meaningful.
Please keep in mind that anthropomorphic climate change is a forbidden topic at this site. The problem is that we don't have adequate expertise (or time!) on board amongst the mentors to properly handle the incredibly rancorous debates that inevitably arise on this topic.

Please continue discussing how to improve the Republican party, but at the same time, please do keep discussions on topics related to global warming out of the picture.
Pythagorean
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#43
Nov8-12, 12:19 PM
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Quote Quote by russ_watters View Post
Also, browsing the exit polls, it looks to me like another popular assumption is bunk:

-More educated people favored Obama? Nope.
Where did you get that? I'm seeing the opposite of what you say...

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1
Pythagorean
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#44
Nov8-12, 12:19 PM
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Strike that, it's 2008
russ_watters
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#45
Nov8-12, 12:24 PM
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?? Looks to me like it wasn't true in 2008 either.
Pythagorean
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#46
Nov8-12, 12:27 PM
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Looks like Romney's biggest supporters were old white religious males:

http://www.cbsnews.com/election-resu...tion=0&party=G
Pythagorean
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#47
Nov8-12, 12:31 PM
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Quote Quote by russ_watters View Post
?? Looks to me like it wasn't true in 2008 either.
To honestly answer the question, you'd have to separate the old white males (who would have had a chance to get a degree in the first place) from the younger people who haven't made it through college yet. I.e. what happens if we subtract the old white males from the education question.... or do they control for that already?

It doesn't really seem like a straight forward analysis.
Pythagorean
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#48
Nov8-12, 12:44 PM
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Here's a gallup poll that shows increase in Obama support with education for 2009-2010 year. I wonder how many people like me didn't vote (because we know it doesn't make a difference) but prefer Obama over Romney.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/125423/am...ack-obama.aspx
D H
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#49
Nov8-12, 12:44 PM
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Quote Quote by russ_watters View Post
?? Looks to me like it wasn't true in 2008 either.
Look at how postgraduates voted, Russ.

Even more striking is to look at how voting amongst college graduates (and even more striking, postgraduates) has changed over the decades. I'll try to dig up some detailed stats later. College graduates used to vote as a very reliably Republican block. By 2008 that very reliable Republican block had fallen to a 50/50 coin toss. Those with more than a bachelor's degree had switched from solidly Republican to solidly Democratic.

The perceived war on science by the Republican party is one many things the Republicans need to fix if they don't want to once again become the permanent minority party. My perception that this war is very real was one of the key reasons I switched from voting predominantly Republican to predominantly Democratic this time around.
Pythagorean
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#50
Nov8-12, 12:54 PM
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We should also consider.. money talks. Obama's top supporters are members of the following institutions:

University of California $1,092,906
Microsoft Corp $761,343
Google Inc $737,055
US Government $627,628
Harvard University $602,992
Kaiser Permanente $532,674
Stanford University $473,372
Deloitte LLP $430,084
Columbia University $411,894
Time Warner $408,512
DLA Piper $393,102
Sidley Austin LLP $377,133
University of Chicago $325,256
Comcast Corp $320,366
IBM Corp $318,645
US Dept of State $308,926
University of Michigan $308,410

Compared to Mitt Romney:

Goldman Sachs $994,139
Bank of America $921,839
Morgan Stanley $827,255
JPMorgan Chase & Co $792,147
Credit Suisse Group $618,941
Wells Fargo $598,379
Deloitte LLP $554,552
Kirkland & Ellis $496,722
Citigroup Inc $465,063
Barclays $428,250
PricewaterhouseCoopers $421,085
UBS AG $400,390
HIG Capital $385,500
Blackstone Group $360,225
Ernst & Young $293,067
EMC Corp $288,440
General Electric $287,495
Elliott Management $281,925
Bain Capital $279,220
Rothman Institute $263,700
russ_watters
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#51
Nov8-12, 12:59 PM
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I don't see what old white males have to do with the question and since the voting age is 18, there couldn't possibly be much change in separating out 18 year olds. High school grads and college grads voted exactly the same way.
russ_watters
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#52
Nov8-12, 01:04 PM
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DH, RE postgrad: Yes, I see it.

...?
Mentalist
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#53
Nov8-12, 01:04 PM
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Change the leaders of the party. But then again, I would never vote republican because all they do is rehash the most grating ideas for the country, "lower taxes, re-position educational programs, and increased military spending".
CAC1001
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#54
Nov8-12, 01:29 PM
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Quote Quote by ParticleGrl View Post
You have to remember there was a recession at the end of the H.W. Bush's presidency. Recessions cause automatic stabilizers (unemployment, medicaid,etc) cost to go up. You need to unentangle the recession from the data to make ajudgement.
This is a good point.


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