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It's time for candidates to lay the ground work for the 2012 primaries if they want to have a shot in 2012. Who do you think will win the Republican nomination?
My top ten (which is why they made the poll):
1. Tim Pawlenty. Pros: Actually laying the organizational groundwork for a campaign, which puts him ahead of all but Romney. Can appeal to Tea Partiers, as well as establishment Republicans. Cons: Lacks name recognition of other top contenders, but that may not be such a flaw. Very strong candidate that's actually putting in the work.
2. Mitt Romney. Pros: In 5 of the last 8 non-incumbent nomination races, the runner-up from the previous non-incumbent nomination has won and Romney was the popular runner-up. Most money and best campaign organization. Cons: Actually, he was only 'co-runner-up' and 2 of 3 exceptions to the runner-up rule involved 'co-runner-up' situations. Romney wasn't credible running as a social conservative in '08, but can Romney withstand Tea Partiers if he runs as himself?
3. Mike Huckabee. Pros: Finished as 'co-runner-up' in spite of starting campaign with virtually no money. Best personality on campaign trail in '08. As former Baptist minister, should appeal to social conservatives. Cons: Not laying any groundwork for a campaign - one wonders if he'll even run.
4. Mitch Daniels. Pros: Conservative enough to win Republican nomination, but, as a governor, few enough positions to appear as a moderate in a general election. Cons: Needs to wear a hat to look Presidential and that could be a problem at formal events. Actually, a pretty strong candidate.
5. John Huntsman. Pros: If Romney uses the chameleon strategy again, then Huntsman is the only moderate in the race, which could give him a route to the nomination. Cons: Huntsman is the only moderate in the race because there are no moderates left in the Republican Party.
6. Herman Cain. Pros: Would be the charismatic Tea Party darling that comes from nowhere - in other words, the Huckabee of the '12 nomination race. Would be popular with the business crowd. Eliminates any race issues. Cons: He's never, ever held political office.
7. Sarah Palin. Pros: It takes a long time to evacuate from a sinking ship, especially when half the occupants refuse to abandon ship. Cons: She's the clueless type of person that all but the most die-hard supporters eventually get tired of defending.
8. Newt Gingrich. Pros: At least people know his name. Cons: He's had 20 years to make his move and hasn't.
9. Haley Barbour. Pros: A successful governor. Cons: Just do a google search on his name. A Barbour/Cain ticket or a Cain/Barbour ticket would make an interesting combo.
10. Michele Bachman. Pros: Someone has to take Palin's place and annoy us all. Cons: She may not even be sane.
(And, I know Ron Paul will generate quite a few other votes, but, seriously, he really doesn't have a chance of winning any election involving people that aren't internet addicts.)
My top ten (which is why they made the poll):
1. Tim Pawlenty. Pros: Actually laying the organizational groundwork for a campaign, which puts him ahead of all but Romney. Can appeal to Tea Partiers, as well as establishment Republicans. Cons: Lacks name recognition of other top contenders, but that may not be such a flaw. Very strong candidate that's actually putting in the work.
2. Mitt Romney. Pros: In 5 of the last 8 non-incumbent nomination races, the runner-up from the previous non-incumbent nomination has won and Romney was the popular runner-up. Most money and best campaign organization. Cons: Actually, he was only 'co-runner-up' and 2 of 3 exceptions to the runner-up rule involved 'co-runner-up' situations. Romney wasn't credible running as a social conservative in '08, but can Romney withstand Tea Partiers if he runs as himself?
3. Mike Huckabee. Pros: Finished as 'co-runner-up' in spite of starting campaign with virtually no money. Best personality on campaign trail in '08. As former Baptist minister, should appeal to social conservatives. Cons: Not laying any groundwork for a campaign - one wonders if he'll even run.
4. Mitch Daniels. Pros: Conservative enough to win Republican nomination, but, as a governor, few enough positions to appear as a moderate in a general election. Cons: Needs to wear a hat to look Presidential and that could be a problem at formal events. Actually, a pretty strong candidate.
5. John Huntsman. Pros: If Romney uses the chameleon strategy again, then Huntsman is the only moderate in the race, which could give him a route to the nomination. Cons: Huntsman is the only moderate in the race because there are no moderates left in the Republican Party.
6. Herman Cain. Pros: Would be the charismatic Tea Party darling that comes from nowhere - in other words, the Huckabee of the '12 nomination race. Would be popular with the business crowd. Eliminates any race issues. Cons: He's never, ever held political office.
7. Sarah Palin. Pros: It takes a long time to evacuate from a sinking ship, especially when half the occupants refuse to abandon ship. Cons: She's the clueless type of person that all but the most die-hard supporters eventually get tired of defending.
8. Newt Gingrich. Pros: At least people know his name. Cons: He's had 20 years to make his move and hasn't.
9. Haley Barbour. Pros: A successful governor. Cons: Just do a google search on his name. A Barbour/Cain ticket or a Cain/Barbour ticket would make an interesting combo.
10. Michele Bachman. Pros: Someone has to take Palin's place and annoy us all. Cons: She may not even be sane.
(And, I know Ron Paul will generate quite a few other votes, but, seriously, he really doesn't have a chance of winning any election involving people that aren't internet addicts.)
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), but not your average Joe Sixpack.