Tradition of physics wagers : Higgs Boson

[JustinLevy]

A friend just showed this to me and I thought it was neat. There's always been a history of physicists wagering on theoretical or experimental results, but it looks like it has spread to the mainstream. You can bet on whether the Higgs boson will be discovered before the end of the year!
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=622296

Isn't the LHC shut down, and Fermilab too short on statistics to even have a chance for a five sigma discovery? 20% chance seems very very optimistic


Anyway, I was curious if people knew of other historic examples of physics wagers. Of course there are the fairly public wagers Hawking had. For particle physics the only one I heard of was (I think) Fermi wagering whether parity would be conserved or not (I don't remember which side he was on, or who was involved). Does anyone know the details or remember any other interesting examples?

 

[David]

Hi Justin,

There are many many other wagers in physics over history. We're working on a feature about it in symmetry magazine already so we'll have a bunch to tell you about coming up. They include the SLAC National Accelerator Lab bet book, a bunch of bets at Caltech, and various others.

I am also surprised that that market is still trading at 20%. There is no chance they would have the statistics to claim discovery by then. Even the related 2010 market is optimistic at 50% I think. I'd say a 3-sigma finding might be possible in that time frame but 5 sigma? Not likely. Fermilab is unlikely to get any 5 sigma result except maybe for a very small window of Higgs mass where it might be possible if I remember correctly (though still a very tough call). Fermilab is able to rule out the Higgs at certain masses with high confidence though (and is already doing so.) Next Fermilab Higgs results will be out in March or April, I believe.

Cheers,
David

 

[sir-pinski]

It is indeed interesting to see how the tradition of physics wagers has spread to the mainstream, with people now able to bet on the discovery of the Higgs boson. However, as you mentioned, the chances of a five sigma discovery seem quite low at this point, with the LHC shut down and Fermilab lacking statistical data. It's always important to approach these types of bets with a healthy dose of skepticism and understanding of the current state of research.

As for other historic examples of physics wagers, I believe you are referring to Enrico Fermi's famous wager with Edward Teller on whether the recently discovered neutron was actually a new particle or a combination of protons and electrons. Fermi believed it was a new particle, while Teller believed it was a combination. In the end, Fermi was proven correct and Teller had to pay up.

There are also well-known wagers between Stephen Hawking and Kip Thorne on the existence of black holes and their properties. Hawking famously bet against the existence of black holes, while Thorne believed they did exist. In the end, Hawking conceded and paid up on the bet.

Overall, these wagers serve as a reminder of the competitive and sometimes playful nature of the scientific community. While they may not always have practical implications, they can serve as a source of motivation and entertainment for researchers.