CNN: It's McCain and Palin

[Vanadium 50]

You hear all this talk about how Palin will help get the women's vote.

I don't think women vote as a monolithic entity, and I don't think anyone serious thinks so either. (I'll ignore the people whose lives revolve around the political blogs and/or talk radio/Air America). There is no such thing as "the women's vote".

Back in the days when Sen. McCain was being trounced in the polls by "probably Sen. Obama", I went through the exercise of calculating how many PUMAs would really need to throw their support over to McCain to change the outcome, and the answer was 6% of Sen. Clinton's supporters. I wouldn't speculate on whether 6% would or would not do this - that's just the number that popped out. I'm too lazy to recalculate the number today, but as McCain has been closing the gap, it's got to be smaller.

Tactically, I think this was about the best choice that McCain could have made. I think the choice of Sen. Biden was poor - picking someone with 35 years in the senate undermined the message of change, and when the senator with the most liberal voting record chooses the senator with the third most liberal voting record, it undermines the message of post-partisianship. Contrast this with Governor Palin, who is able to energize the social conservatives without irritating the moderates and swing voters (this is where her lack of seniority serves as an advantage). McCain's choice is newsworthy, and managed to wipe the Democrats off the front page as soon as the convention was over. It reinforces the idea of "McCain as maverick" which let's him nibble at Obama's own message of change. The immediate and inevitable attacks from the left saying "two years of executive experience is insufficient qualifications for the #2 spot" beg the question "what about two years of federal legislative experience and zero of executive for the #1 spot?" (When you circle the wagons, it helps to shoot out, not in!)

The people who dislike this decision the most are the people who wouldn't vote for McCain anyway. So from McCain's perspective, it doesn't matter. Selecting a candidate who can improve the ticket's standing among swing voters and at the same time energize the base was brilliant - I would argue the best move McCain has made in the campaign yet.

Note that in this message I deliberately avoided saying whether I like her or not.

 

[Astronuc]

I don't think women vote as a monolithic entity, and I don't think anyone serious thinks so either. (I'll ignore the people whose lives revolve around the political blogs and/or talk radio/Air America). There is no such thing as "the women's vote".

I don't think there is a monolithic voting entity of any kind, particularly on the national or state-wide levels. Certainly the 'media' like to use terms like 'black' vote, or 'womens' vote, or red states vs blue states. It's rather unfortunate in a nation which prides itself on individuality.

Perhaps it's a reflection of a two party system, well there are others like Libertarian, Independent, Green, . . . , but the system is dominated by two parties, as opposed to mutliple parties as is the case in many other countries.

Many individuals do vote for simple reasons. I've mentioned it before, that I encountered a woman who voted for GW because he was better looking than Kerry. She also mentioned, she did not understand the issues, nor was she inclined to expend any effort to understand the issues, e.g. tax policy, international relations, etc.

There is a big difference between those who keep their religiosity personal and those who are compelled to impose their religiosity on others or advertise it conspicuously. The latter is inclined to use the government to impose their particular religious ideology on the mass population, e.g. by introducing or promoting prayer in school, or creationism/ID in science curricula, or using public funds to financial support particular religious groups and exclude others, . . . .

 

[Andre]

But then people that don't like me would turn on you, so maybe you're better off if I ignore you.

No one can turn on Bob. He's unturnonable!

I think Evo intended another context: for others to be turnonbobable

 

[LowlyPion]

It's an ill wind that blows no good.

Gustav has apparently provided a perfect opportunity to keep Bush away from the convention in Minneapolis. PR moment to be avoided - Bush on stage with McCain. Hide Bush in a bunker where people can't see how little he is actually doing and let the stage be McCain's.

 

[Astronuc]

It's an ill wind that blows no good.

Gustav has apparently provided a perfect opportunity to keep Bush away from the convention in Minneapolis. PR moment to be avoided - Bush on stage with McCain. Hide Bush in a bunker where people can't see how little he is actually doing and let the stage be McCain's.

Divine intervention perhaps? :rofl:

 

[LowlyPion]

Divine intervention perhaps? :rofl:

Master puppeteer Rove must thrilled.

Meanwhile my best tip for the day - fill up the gas tank before the oil and gas traders get into work on Tuesday.

 

[Astronuc]

Now it would be interesting if the remnants of Gustav move up the Mississippi River Valley to Minneapolis - St. Paul.

 

[LowlyPion]

The latest news is that Cheney won't go to the convention either ... because of course he is so vital to emergency planning - like Bush is? (Cheney's job is to move Bush's mouth maybe?)

Now it seems they don't want Bush interfering with recovery efforts either, where will he go?

Perhaps with nothing for Bush to do, he can be at the convention to let his popularity rub off on candidate McCain after all?

 

[Gokul43201]

Master puppeteer Rove must thrilled.

Hey, don't knock Rove! He may be the most knowledgeable person in the country about this kind of situation. After all, it seems the White House put him in charge of the Katrina "reconstruction" effort.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/09/15/politics/15bush.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

 

[GCT]

Does anyone find McCain's claim- that Palin is more qualified than Obama - disturbing? There seems to be a some insinuations here, for one it's totally disregarding.

 

[turbo]

Does anyone find McCain's claim- that Palin is more qualified than Obama - disturbing? There seems to be a some insinuations here, for one it's totally disregarding.

Lindsey Graham said much the same on ABC's This Week. Just the slur with no justification, aside from his assertions that Obama "got it wrong on Iraq" and was willing to negotiate with Ahmadinejad. Of course there was no honest explanation that if the US wanted to negotiate with Iran, they would be negotiating with representatives of the Supreme Ayatollah, who actually holds the power in Iran. Fear-mongering and lies from one end to the other. If Graham can explain how Palin is actually more experienced and better-suited than Obama, he wasn't letting on.

In my opinion, Obama got it right on Iraq right from the beginning, and his willingness to negotiate with Iran instead of bombing them as a first resort (after pretend-negotiations and bluster) is a sign of maturity and experience. We haven't had that in the White house for the last 8 years.

 

[Gokul43201]

Lindsey Graham said much the same on ABC's This Week.

Graham, Giuliani, the campaign...they've all got the same cue card. And they seem to have got it from Limbaugh.

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[Evo]

Well, it's not working on the college crowd, at least not here. The Evo Child was foaming at the mouth today about Palin. She will probably mobilize the entire campus to come out in force to vote against McCain/Palin, and she's just the sort that could do it. Katrina was nothing compared to Hurricane Evo Child. I had to listen to a long lecture about Palin today. I'm afraid my youngest daughter has become a political activist.

 

[turbo]

Well, it's not working on the college crowd, at least not here. The Evo Child was foaming at the mouth today about Palin. She will probably mobilize the entire campus to come out in force to vote against McCain/Palin, and she's just the sort that could do it. Katrina was nothing compared to Hurricane Evo Child. I had to listen to a long lecture about Palin today. I'm afraid my youngest daughter has become a political activist.

Give her a hug for me, Evo, and remind her that if the Democrats start pulling the same kind of crap after they've been in power for a while, we'll need her to help us keep them honest. Sheep get tyranny, thoughtful people can fight that.

 

[rootX]

Well, it's not working on the college crowd, at least not here. The Evo Child was foaming at the mouth today about Palin. She will probably mobilize the entire campus to come out in force to vote against McCain/Palin, and she's just the sort that could do it. Katrina was nothing compared to Hurricane Evo Child. I had to listen to a long lecture about Palin today. I'm afraid my youngest daughter has become a political activist.

I don't think Palin/Cain use facebook.

Obama's biggest group has ~645,604 members (he's even on imeem )
Mc Cain less than 500

 

[WarPhalange]

Is anybody else expecting an all out slaughter this November? It is my understanding that polls are taken mostly from older people and nobody is really accounting for all the new young voters that Obama has attracted.

 

[Math Is Hard]

I see a John McCain page on facebook with 250,225 "supporters".

 

[rootX]

I see a John McCain page on facebook with 250,225 "supporters".

oops, I was using "Mc Cain"

 

[turbo]

Is anybody else expecting an all out slaughter this November? It is my understanding that polls are taken mostly from older people and nobody is really accounting for all the new young voters that Obama has attracted.

Do not underestimate the effects of 2 more months the Rove attack-machine, and do not forget that the Republicans have been honing voter-suppression techniques for longer than that and will surely bring out new ones this time around. They still have some effective tools with which to try to force a Republican win regardless of the intent of the voters.

In 2000 cops were out heavily in minority neighborhoods of Florida, and people with names similar to those of felons were not allowed to vote unless they proved that they were not felons, and even then they were only allowed to file "provisional ballots" which are so under-counted as to be not much better than useless. In 2004, whites in Ohio in affluent neighborhoods had to wait little if at all to vote, while minorities in poorer neighborhoods often had to wait in lines for many hours. Even if the electronically-tallied votes were not tampered with, the suppression resulting from voters having to choose between staying to vote, going home to be home for their kids after school, voter having to leave the line to get to work, etc, all could have and probably did affect the outcome of the 2004 election in that pivotal state. Also in 2004, Republicans used "caging lists" primarily against deployed military personnel. They sent letters to soldiers' homes by a method that required a signature of the recipient and when the deployed serviceperson ws unable to sign and the letter was returned, they submitted those letters to the registrars of their states, demanding that the soldiers' names be removed from the polls because they were not living at their address of record.

 

[WarPhalange]

I'm still surprised nobody has been put to death for those things. That's the only way these "elites" will understand, when they realize the common man has the power to take his *** to jail or worse.

Right now they're not even getting a slap on the wrist.

 

[LowlyPion]

I think they have decided that San Antonio is safe enough for Bush to protect through the bad weather.

Though for the life of me I can't imagine why he couldn't mismanage things from Minneapolis just as well as from San Antonio.

 

[Evo]

Is anybody else expecting an all out slaughter this November? It is my understanding that polls are taken mostly from older people and nobody is really accounting for all the new young voters that Obama has attracted.

You don't realize what a well oiled machine the Evagelicals are. Now they are fighting to get one of their own (Palin) elected. They will stop at nothing, I'm not kidding, I've seen the levels they will go to first hand.

Hopefully the mainstream religious people will be alarmed by the fact that Palin is Pentecostal.

 

[chasely]

I see a John McCain page on facebook with 250,225 "supporters".

That's right. McCain's has a shave over 250,000 supporters on facebook. Obama has a shave under 1.5 million supporters on facebook.

 

[turbo]

You don't realize what a well oiled machine the Evagelicals are. Now they are fighting to get one of their own (Palin) elected. They will stop at nothing, I'm not kidding, I've seen the levels they will go to first hand.

WarPhalange, I didn't want to get into this because of the repercussions that might come from steering a political discussion into religious waters, but since Evo is OK with it:

The Evangelicals are extremely efficient. Their leaders can produce almost monolithic blocs of voters if they want, and if they are willing to put in a little pulpit time. They don't have to say "vote for Palin" from the pulpit, and if they did so, they would almost certainly face challenges to their tax-exempt status. They are not that stupid. All they have to do is stop just short of asking for votes and instead point out just how faithful and Christian Palin is, and preach about how she values life (carrying a Down Syndrome baby at age 44 certainly qualifies) and how she shares the values of the Evangelical congregation being preached to. It's not going to take much to swing their congregations, even though the Republicans have courted Evangelicals in every modern election, and then dumped them like an unattractive blind date shortly after each election.

 

[BobG]

But then people that don't like me would turn on you, so maybe you're better off if I ignore you.

No one can turn on Bob. He's unturnonable!

I think Evo intended another context: for others to be turnonbobable

I think this evolution of terminology has become discombobulated.

Beside, the PF sisterhood can turn Bob on anytime.

 

[turbo]

Beside, the PF sisterhood can turn Bob on anytime.

Let's not taunt Bob lest he turn on the sisterhood. It could get ugly.

 

[Evo]

I think this evolution of terminology has become discombobulated.

Beside, the PF sisterhood can turn Bob on anytime.

Oh, Bob knows not what he's getting into!

 

[Evo]

NOW against Palin

The National Organization for Women has offically spoken out against Palin as being against women's rights.

If McCain's intent was to get more women voters he has failed miserably.

Sen. John McCain's choice of Alaska governor Sarah Palin as his running mate is a cynical effort to appeal to disappointed Hillary Clinton voters and get them to vote, ultimately, against their own self-interest.

Gov. Palin may be the second woman vice-presidential candidate on a major party ticket, but she is not the right woman. Sadly, she is a woman who opposes women's rights, just like John McCain.

The fact that Palin is a mother of five who has a 4-month-old baby, a woman who is juggling work and family responsibilities, will speak to many women. But will Palin speak FOR women? Based on her record and her stated positions, the answer is clearly No.

In a gubernatorial debate, Palin stated emphatically that her opposition to abortion was so great, so total, that even if her teenage daughter was impregnated by a rapist, she would "choose life" -- meaning apparently that she would not permit her daughter to have an abortion.

Palin also had to withdraw her appointment of a top public safety commissioner who had been reprimanded for sexual harassment, although Palin had been warned about his background through letters by the sexual harassment complainant.

What McCain does not understand is that women supported Hillary Clinton not just because she was a woman, but because she was a champion on their issues. They will surely not find Sarah Palin to be an advocate for women.

Sen. Joe Biden is the VP candidate who appeals to women, with his authorship and championing of landmark domestic violence legislation, support for pay equity, and advocacy for women around the world.

http://www.now.org/press/08-08/08-29.html

 

[Math Is Hard]

That's right. McCain's has a shave over 250,000 supporters on facebook. Obama has a shave under 1.5 million supporters on facebook.

I wasn't making any particular point with that. That was simply a reply to rootX's post (below).

I don't think Palin/Cain use facebook.

Obama's biggest group has ~645,604 members (he's even on imeem )
Mc Cain less than 500

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

The National Organization for Women has offically spoken out against Palin as being against women's rights.

If McCain's intent was to get more women voters he has failed miserably.



http://www.now.org/press/08-08/08-29.html

A friend of mine made a good point. She's going on the campaign trail and attempting to take office as VP even though she has a four month old child at home. While it would probably outrage his female supporters if Obama's campaign poked at this issue I have to wonder what all of the conservative Dr Laura fans would say about that. So far I can't find Dr Laura comments on Palin.

 

[WarPhalange]

Good point. Going all conservative gung-ho will be hard if she's not there taking care of her kid. What kind of mother is she?

Although you're right, Obama pointing it out would cost him a LOT more than it's worth. I wonder if he can get someone outside of the campaign to do it?

 

[mathwonk]

well this very interesting, and of course anything can happen. i have made numerous pessimistic statements because it is easier to bear good news when you have braced yourself for bad, but honestly, if the dems do not win by 10-15%, then america definitely lives down to its low international reputation.

as my younger son put it, if the republicans win this time, i can no longer even attempt to defend the US to my friends in europe.

i know i am hopeless optimist, but surely, the general electorate is not THIS stupid. only absolute nutcase right wingers can possibly vote for this team, right? i mean palin is a young phyllis schlaffly, and her state literally has a smaller population than cobb county, georgia, making her experience roughly that of the ceo of a moderate sized county.

 

[WarPhalange]

i know i am hopeless optimist, but surely, the electorate is not THIS stupid.

When I was interning last month I rode my bike to work. I got a flat one day. I was angry. Profanities were said. But then my friend said "Cheer up. It happened. Now you can rest easy knowing it won't happen again. I mean, what are the chances?"

It happened twice more. That same week.


Moral of the story? Don't tempt fate.

 

[Evo]

She's going on the campaign trail and attempting to take office as VP even though she has a four month old child at home.

And a "special needs" baby to boot. Not much for "family values". Apparently career comes before family. Can anyone say "hypocrite"?

 

[mathwonk]

sighhh...