Did Only 6,000 Humans Really Survive the Toba Eruption?

  • Thread starter DoggerDan
  • Start date
In summary, the conversation discusses a TV show that mentioned a drastic reduction in human population due to the Toba volcanic eruption 75,000 years ago. However, there is limited evidence to support this claim and the show's reliability is questionable. Some studies suggest a near extinction of humans at around 1 million and 70,000 years ago, but there is no concrete evidence to support the exact number of survivors after the Toba event. Additionally, some sources suggest that the Toba event did not have as significant of an impact on human populations as previously thought. Overall, there is ongoing research and debate surrounding the effects of the Toba eruption on human population.
  • #1
DoggerDan
Just heard this line on a TV show that's been known to mix fact and fiction. When they do mention facts, however, they've always been reliable.

They said 75,000 years ago there was a horrific ice age and that only 6,000 people survived.

Is this true? I spent the last half hour browsing the Internet, but couldn't find historic population data or curves.
 
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  • #2
That's a lower-limit on what some feel was a drastic reduction in population at that time. Can't comment on the details without reviewing. You can do that.
 
  • #3
What was the name of the show and what network was it on?
 
  • #5
jackmell said:
Here's a reference:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/166869.stm

Just google "Near extinction of humans"

I think that's it. The dates and numbers vary a bit, but not much, less than a factor of two, so it's within parameters.

So how does it feel to have passed through an evolutionary recent geological or biological bottleneck? Feels good! Yee-hah! We made it!

So, why the long face?

Question is: What's next? Do we do it, or screw it?
 
  • #6
This was the http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory" [Broken] that some estimates suggest took humans down to just 1000 breeding pairs.
 
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  • #7
The Toba event may be seen ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/icecore/greenland/summit/gisp2/chem/volcano.txt like this:

  • DATA:

    age (yr) total sulfate (ppb) volcanic sulfate

    70895.50- 190.90- 0
    70923.50- 235.20- 0
    70977.50- 265.06- 17
    71004.50- 244.01- 1
    71031.50- 264.88- 61
    71058.50- 639.71- 466

    71085.50- 127.22- 0
    71112.50- 94.42- 0
    71139.50- 138.78- 57
    71166.50- 85.60- 9
    71193.00- 66.05- 0
    71219.00- 64.47- 0
    71245.00- 48.89- 0
    ..

It's certainly the biggest spike by far, but a few thousand years earlier than other datings

That result would not support the idea of a millenium scale return to glacial conditions. Also the impact on populations -obviously significant- but probably purely theoretically, a hypothesis waiting for supporting evidence. Here is some work: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618211005362
 
  • #8
Genetic evidence suggests that Human population size fell to about 10,000 adults between 50 and 100 thousand years ago.

Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans.
by Professor Stanley H. Ambrose,
Department of Anthropology, University Of Illinois, Urbana, USA
Extract from "Journal of Human Evolution" [1998] 34, 623-651

http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/stanley_ambrose.php (this site seems a bit too commercial for my taste, but interest stuff to look at)
 
  • #10
Astronuc said:
Late Pleistocene human population bottlenecks, volcanic winter, and differentiation of modern humans.
by Professor Stanley H. Ambrose,
Department of Anthropology, University Of Illinois, Urbana, USA
Extract from "Journal of Human Evolution" [1998] 34, 623-651

http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/stanley_ambrose.php (this site seems a bit too commercial for my taste, but interest stuff to look at)

Maybe the site is not devoid of some bias. But maybe we should take a closer look at this. Notice that it's published in 1998, saying:

Mount Toba's eruption is marked by a 6 year period during which the largest amount of volcanic sulphur was deposited in the past 110,000 years. This dramatic event was followed by 1000 years of the lowest ice core oxygen isotope ratios of the last glacial period. In other words, for 1000 years immediately following the eruption, the Earth witnessed temperatures colder than during the Last Glacial Maximum at 18-21,000 years ago.

using this to illustrate:

diagram2.gif


Now the ice cores was a big project in the 1980s and most publications came in the 1990s, so in 1998, maybe they could also have shown this:

99.540.30.1.gif


source

see that in the timeframe if the Toba event (71-75 ky) there is the Dansgaard Oeschger cycle #20, which roughly looks like all another cycles. Can anybody justify that this particular cycle was caused by the Toba event? It occurs that the "1000 years of the lowest ice core oxygen isotope ratios" is a bit hard to substantiate. Obviously science moves fast enough to supersede hypotheses like that, which may be treated elsewhere as rock solid facts.

Also my aforementioned recent http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1040618211005362 (behind pay wall) gives a comprehensive over view of the presence of hominidae in India, mentioning areas with a constant presence from the early Pleistocene until now with no evidence of absence after Toba. Also it does not attempt to estimate the number of casualties and again, it seems that any number of survivors of the event are estimates not based on any evidence.
 

1. How did only 6,000 humans survive?

The exact reason for why only 6,000 humans survived is still a topic of debate among scientists. Some theories suggest that a natural disaster or catastrophic event wiped out the majority of the human population, while others propose that it was due to a combination of factors such as disease, famine, and war.

2. When did this event occur?

The event in which only 6,000 humans survived is believed to have taken place thousands of years ago. The exact date is unknown, but it is thought to have occurred during the early stages of human evolution.

3. Are there any records or evidence of this event?

There is no concrete evidence or records that specifically mention an event in which only 6,000 humans survived. However, there are various historical and archaeological findings that suggest a significant decrease in the human population at some point in history.

4. How did these 6,000 humans manage to survive and repopulate?

It is believed that these 6,000 humans were resilient and adaptable enough to survive the harsh conditions and challenges they faced. They may have also benefited from genetic diversity among the survivors, which allowed them to repopulate and thrive over time.

5. Is there a possibility that this event could happen again?

While it is impossible to predict the future, it is highly unlikely that an event similar to this would occur again. The human population has grown significantly and we have advanced technology and resources that can help us overcome natural disasters and other challenges. However, it is crucial to learn from the past and take necessary precautions to prevent such a catastrophic event from happening again.

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