New Calculated Trajectory for the Apophis asteroid

In summary, NASA released an update stating that the probability of an encounter with the Apophis asteroid in 2036 has decreased from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million. This was due to updated computational techniques and newly available data. Some individuals have questioned why NASA scientists cannot reduce the fractions further, but it is common for probabilities to be expressed in this format to emphasize the rarity and unlikelihood of the event. The article also mentions that NASA typically uses very conservative initial probabilities in their calculations.
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  • #2
That's Good News!

"Updated computational techniques and newly available data indicate the probability of an Earth encounter on April 13, 2036, for Apophis has dropped from one-in-45,000 to about four-in-a million."

Any particular reason NASA scientists can't reduce their fractions?

Does it just sound like better odds than 1-in-250,000 :smile:
 
  • #3
Saladsamurai said:
Any particular reason NASA scientists can't reduce their fractions?

Does it just sound like better odds than 1-in-250,000 :smile:

Haha I was thinking the same thing my math teachers would have a hayday if they saw this!

but to the general population saying something has odds out of a million normally indicates that it's going to be an EXTREMELY RARE AND DEFINITLY UNLIKELY event that you shouldn't run out to bet on. :P
 
  • #4
I like the 4 in a million way of describing it. That's 4x more probable than two one-in-a-million events: being electrocuted by lightning or dying of male breast cancer.
 
  • #5
Anyone know what kind of Factor of Safety NASA uses in their calculations?

In the article it seemed as if all initial probabilities are on the very safe side. Are they just trying to scare us so they get a little publicity. I mean their intial calculation was 1-45,000 now it's 1-250,000??
 

1. What is the Apophis asteroid?

The Apophis asteroid, also known as 99942 Apophis, is a near-Earth asteroid that was discovered in 2004. It is approximately 370 meters in diameter and has been classified as a potentially hazardous object due to its close proximity to Earth.

2. Why is there a new calculated trajectory for Apophis?

Previous calculations showed that there was a small chance of Apophis colliding with Earth in 2029 or 2036. However, new data and improved technology have allowed scientists to refine the trajectory and determine that a collision is highly unlikely.

3. How close will Apophis come to Earth?

Apophis will come within approximately 31,000 kilometers of Earth in 2029, which is closer than some of our satellites in orbit. However, it is not expected to cause any damage to Earth or its satellites.

4. What factors were considered in the new trajectory calculation?

The new trajectory calculation takes into account the gravitational forces of other celestial bodies, such as the Sun and other planets, as well as the shape and composition of the asteroid itself. It also takes into account any potential impacts or close approaches in the future.

5. Is there still a chance of Apophis colliding with Earth in the future?

Based on the new trajectory calculation, the probability of Apophis colliding with Earth in the next 100 years is extremely low. However, scientists will continue to monitor the asteroid and make any necessary updates to its trajectory as more data becomes available.

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