Japan Earthquake: Nuclear Plants at Fukushima Daiichi

[TCups]

This appears to be a wide-angle picture taken from the same location at the same time. The photographer was even further than the berm:

That puts the source of the photo in better perspective. But my assessment wasn't too far off. Another ominous observation -- look carefully at the wind direction. Those smoke plumes are drifting inland, not out to sea.

 

[Borek]

look carefully at the wind direction. Those smoke plumes are drifting inland, not out to sea.

Doesn't mean much - can be local (vortex in a given place, wind blowing in different directions at different heights), can be just temporary (few seconds of wind that twists in every direction, but blows one way on average).

 

[TCups]

Hi TCups
. . .

Whilst I don't believe anyone can be sure, the tongue of material coming out of the large hole has the appearance of a molten metal-slag mix. Once it started leaking from the building it was exposed to convective cooling which solidified the "crust". Was it you who first suggested this?

In this thread, perhaps. I haven't seen or read any other comments about that "tongue", but it caught my eye for sure.

I'm less convinced about the red dots. However I am far more concerned about reactor 3 than the authorities. I suspect the steam cloud is coming from what remains of the reactor core. The explosion last Monday was directed strongly vertically suggesting to me it originated from deep within the containment structure. It clearly carried substantial solid material to a height of 400-500 metres. Whilst I can't be sure this may have been due to a melt-down of the fuel rods in reactor 3. They melted through the reactor floor (1500 Celsius) and fell into the flooded "dry-well" below. This triggered a large steam- zirconium-water-hydrogen explosion. I suspected this not only blew the concrete top off the containment, it also blew most of the reactor contents out of the reactor.

These are my best visual interpretations based on what I know of the reactor chemistry (I'm a former chemical engineer) and careful observations. In the absence of honesty from TEPCO and the Japanese government what else can you do?

I can't be sure if the hole is at the bottom leel of the SFP, or perhaps, the floor level just below the bottom level of the pool (ie, perhaps hot slag went down, into a pump room, then out the wall). Either way, a big hole in that location is very bad, as is the wind shift.

 

[mattm2]

Off topic; however, related to the multi-faceted Japanese crisis: The Hedge Funds are involved in Economic Terrorism again (like they have been several times in the past few years--including speculating in oil recently and driving up the price). Basis for my allegation is that they are buying massive amounts of Yen for the sole purpose of profiting speculative Yen buying. This in turn increases the value of the Yen (macro economics would indicate that the value of the Yen should be decreasing as a result of the disaster if there were no outside interference). By increasing the value of the Yen, it makes Japan's exports more expensive and thereby exacerbates the negative economic results of the disaster.

 

[lapsedgeo]

The amount and quality of information you guys have amassed and what you have in your brain boxes is amazing for an non-scientific outsider to behold, keep up the good work. Can I ask a probably annoying basic question (in relation to everything else on here), watching the helicopters dropping water rather ineffectually by the looks of it, as it is spraying and blowing in the wind is it becoming contaminated to any extent on the way down and being spread about, albeit in a very limited localised way (hopefully)?

 

[AntonL]

Could this event be worse than Chernobyl, or is that scaremongering?

While the situation is serious, so far there is no reasons to believe radioactive contamination of similar scale is possible. Situation is dynamic, so it may change, but as of now such comparisons are scaremongering, I have no doubts about it.

Experts in Germany reckon by Saturday the accident could be of similar or larger proportion if reactor 4 and 3 SFP run dry and the fuel starts burning. Radiation at the facility will be so high that it is not approachable.

So far every effort seems to fail to get water sprayed or dropped into the SFP.

The first attempt by SDF helicopters looked more like a sprinkling of Holy Water, I truly hope that the Japs are not hoping for Divine intervention and that we see some real workable results by tomorrow.

 

[kfmfe04]

Off topic; however, related to the multi-faceted Japanese crisis: The Hedge Funds are involved in Economic Terrorism again (like they have been several times in the past few years--including speculating in oil recently and driving up the price). Basis for my allegation is that they are buying massive amounts of Yen for the sole purpose of profiting speculative Yen buying. This in turn increases the value of the Yen (macro economics would indicate that the value of the Yen should be decreasing as a result of the disaster if there were no outside interference). By increasing the value of the Yen, it makes Japan's exports more expensive and thereby exacerbates the negative economic results of the disaster.

Actually, speculators are buying JPY because they are using the Kobe Earthquake as an indication of what will happen next. In that case, there was repatriation of foreign (non-JPY) currencies (sell foreign currency, buy JPY) to invest in reconstruction, so hedge funds are stepping ahead of this expected repatriation. OTOH, people believe that with the disaster in place, foreign banks will no longer object to BoJ intervention to weaken the yen. They may have already intervened or are definitely ready to intervene if necessary.

 

[Astronuc]

In this thread, perhaps. I haven't seen or read any other comments about that "tongue", but it caught my eye for sure.

The debris hanging from the base of the hole in Unit 4's secondary containment looks like insulation. The red parts look like they are painted red - not glowing red.

The hole appears to be above the floor of the concrete structure of the reactor building.

The flow of plumes at that level will be directed by local currents. The plants sit east of a hill. The atmosphere above generally blows from west to east, but the jet stream can kink, blowing anyway from N to S, and perhaps westward (or SW or NW), but it predominantly moves from W to E at that latitude ~ 32 N.

I'll comment later once I digest the news/reports.

Given 4 units in various states of distress - and three with mature cores (meaning fuel with one, two or three cycles of operation + a portion of the current cycle) - and with the ruptures in containment - I can appreciate the comparison to Chernobyl. From the outside, it looks pretty bad.

 

[AntonL]

Off topic; however, related to the multi-faceted Japanese crisis: The Hedge Funds are involved in Economic Terrorism again (like they have been several times in the past few years--including speculating in oil recently and driving up the price). Basis for my allegation is that they are buying massive amounts of Yen for the sole purpose of profiting speculative Yen buying. This in turn increases the value of the Yen (macro economics would indicate that the value of the Yen should be decreasing as a result of the disaster if there were no outside interference). By increasing the value of the Yen, it makes Japan's exports more expensive and thereby exacerbates the negative economic results of the disaster.

Actually, speculators are buying JPY because they are using the Kobe Earthquake as an indication of what will happen next. In that case, there was repatriation of foreign (non-JPY) currencies (sell foreign currency, buy JPY) to invest in reconstruction, so hedge funds are stepping ahead of this expected repatriation. OTOH, people believe that with the disaster in place, foreign banks will no longer object to BoJ intervention to weaken the yen. They may have already intervened or are definitely ready to intervene if necessary.

I read somewhere that Japanese insurance companies will have to raise the money for their payouts in non Yen currencies - hence a huge demand for Yen will be created - hence the strong Yen

I certainly would not talk of economic terrorism - just market forces at play.

 

[mattm2]

kfmfe04: The process of repatriation by itself would strengthen the Yen; however, BOJ has stated that there has been little repatriation by insurance companies, etc. because they have sufficient liquidity without selling US assets. In other words, the strenthening of the Yen has been caused by speculation. I hope that the hedge funds get burned bad by a massive multi-national effort to weaken the Yen. Would serve them right.

 

[kfmfe04]

NHK just reported an earthquake Chiba, Ibaraki, Saitama, Tokyo, and Kanagawa. Looks like a 4 on the Japanese scale in Chiba, 3's in Tokyo - M5.8, but no chance of tsunami. Centered off Chiba. Around 9:21:32PM Japanese time.

Looks like still plenty of aftershocks.

 

[AntonL]

has anyone seen the photos that the USA made by their remote controlled drone or UAV type Global Hawk stationed in Guam. NHK reports that the USA government has made photos available to Japanese government of todays flights.

This puts weight onto the following CNN report
On Wednesday, Gregory Jaczko, the head of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission told Congress that spent fuel rods in the No. 4 reactor had been exposed because there "is no water in the spent fuel pool," resulting in the emission of "extremely high" levels of radiation.
But Japanese authorities disputed Jaczko's assertion, citing information gathered from a helicopter flight over the plant.

 

[AntonL]

NHK just reported an earthquake Chiba, Ibaraki, Saitama, Tokyo, and Kanagawa. Looks like a 4 on the Japanese scale in Chiba, 3's in Tokyo - M5.8, but no chance of tsunami. Centered off Chiba. Around 9:21:32PM Japanese time.

Looks like still plenty of aftershocks.

528 aftershocks of magnitude greater than 4 since the MR9 event

You can count them http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/140_40_eqs.php"

 

[kfmfe04]

528 aftershocks of magnitude greater than 4 since the MR9 event

You can count them http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Maps/10/140_40_eqs.php"

Nice link. TY.

Another M5.8 off Fukushima at 21:55PM. I don't know how anyone in Japan can get any sleep - if it's a really big one, you wouldn't have enough time to wake up and compose yourself enough to attempt an escape. With so many aftershocks, how could you distinguish the difference until it's too late?

 

[TCups]

I keep looking at images. It is hard to know for sure, but I believe this is probably unit 4

and it looks like the access tunnel to the crane lift may in fact be in the back of the building. In retrospect, that probably makes more sense as the fuel rod assemblies would need to come in on a truck. If that is the case, the my orientation of the diagram is bass-ackwards.

I find Astronuc's interpretation of a sheet of insulation hanging out the hole hard to refute, and I certainly agree the red dots are not clearly something "hot". Also, on reflection, I suspect that had a pile of hot nuclear material slagged out the side of the building, there would be a lot more residual heat and smoke.

All reasons for a little optimism for a change. Let's hope that the SFP is intact and that they can get more water to it somehow.

Does anyone have any "hard" information about the power plant and reactor layouts? Is the road behind the reactor building and the covered tunnel leading in from the back of the building where the fuel rod assemblies would arrive at the plant, or would it be more likely to be accessed from the building in front of the power plant for some reason?

 

[AtomicWombat]

The debris hanging from the base of the hole in Unit 4's secondary containment looks like insulation.

I'm happy to be proven wrong on this and I can only say the tongue looks like corium lava.

[PLAIN]http://www.cernobilturkiye.com/content_images/1/ch/chernobyl.jpg

[URL]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/bf822b7d3b8e.gif[/URL]

[PLAIN]http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/6/65/Pictureofchernobyllavaflow.jpg

See:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corium_%28nuclear_reactor%29"

The hole appears to be above the floor of the concrete structure of the reactor building.

I disagree completely. Fukushima 1 units 2, 3 & 4 all have a clear ridge around the external building that denotes the boundary between the floor level - the level of the reactor "mouth" and the top of the spent fuel pool - and the concrete containment and other concrete support. The hole is clearly below this level.

 

[Astronuc]

I disagree completely. Fukushima 1 units 2, 3 & 4 all have a clear ridge around the external building that denotes the boundary between the floor level - the level of the reactor "mouth" and the top of the spent fuel pool - and the concrete containment and other concrete support. The hole is clearly below this level.

Yeah - on review, it does seem to be the first panel below the floor level. I also appears to be above several louvered areas, which I would expect are heat removal or ventilation systems, though the louvered areas seem to be in a build between the containment and the photographer.

That was a panel that blew out, but it does not appear to be concrete. The actual construction seems somewhat different than the published images (artists rendering) of the Mk I containment. I'd like to see a close up of the area.

 

[TCups]

Maybe we could work a trade with those intent on nuclear terrorism: all the high level radioactive waste you can carry in return for some good close up shots.

 

[MadRocketSci2]

Unfortunately for now I'll have to match your BOTE calculation with my own BOTE calculation.

From:
http://allthingsnuclear.org/post/385...r-core-cooling
Assume the fuel heat is equivalent to a boil-off rate of 50 gal/min (approx 10-20 days after removal from reactor).
This is equivalent to about 8 MW.
Using the stefan-Boltzman Law: Power = 5.67E−8*T^4, one square metre of Zironium will give off about 1.15 MW of heat (as a black body) at its melting T = 2128K. That requires about 8/1.15 say 6 m^2 of unobstructed radiation area to dissipate.

But we don't need to reach 2128K, we only need to reach 1500 K where zirconium reacts exothermically in air or steam. (Note zirconium is protected by a passivating layer that breaks down at this temperature.) The oxygen-Zr reaction gives off 12MJ/kg; the H2O-Zr reaction gives off 5.8MJ/kg.

I was talking about the spent fuel. The core probably can melt down if it isn't cooled long enough. The spent fuel though should be putting out heat at a fraction of what the core fuel is putting out though - we shouldn't have 50 gallons per minute evaporation from that! At 3 months, we should have 10% of the power density of 1 day after shutdown.

 

[TCups]

I was talking about the spent fuel. The core probably can melt down if it isn't cooled long enough. The spent fuel though should be putting out heat at a fraction of what the core fuel is putting out though - we shouldn't have 50 gallons per minute evaporation from that! At 3 months, we should have 10% of the power density at shutdown.

But do I misunderstand? The core fuel in Unit 4 was in the SFP, not in the core. Certainly there must be something fundamentally different between the SFP of Units 4, 5, and 6 if only Unit 4 exploded.

 

[PietKuip]

Japan's science ministry says radiation levels of up to 0.17 millisieverts per hour have been detected about 30 kilometers northwest of the quake-damaged Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/17_38.html

Stay inside!

 

[MadRocketSci2]

Just the same problem that they've been having with all the reactors - the buildings were confined and allowed hydrogen to build up in them:

The Unit 4 pool lost water - it should have taken days according to NEI, but there must have been a leak in the pool or something - ditto the #3 pool, but #3 is already open to the air from the previous hydrogen explosion, so no hydrogen buildup no matter what it does.

From the thermometers in the #5 and 6 pools, apparently there is still water in there.

 

[Astronuc]

But do I misunderstand? The core fuel in Unit 4 was in the SFP, not in the core. Certainly there must be something fundamentally different between the SFP of Units 4, 5, and 6 if only Unit 4 exploded.

I don't believe 5 and 6 were as badly damaged, and their EDGs may actually be working. Unit 6 has Mk II containment, but Unit 5 is Mk I and similar to Unit 4.

Units 5 and 6 may have been shutdown earlier - which means cooler fuel, or perhaps they reloaded the cores, so the spent fuel pool does not have the burden of the reinsert fuel.

 

[andyr]

kfmfe04: The process of repatriation by itself would strengthen the Yen; however, BOJ has stated that there has been little repatriation by insurance companies, etc. because they have sufficient liquidity without selling US assets. In other words, the strenthening of the Yen has been caused by speculation. I hope that the hedge funds get burned bad by a massive multi-national effort to weaken the Yen. Would serve them right.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carry_(investment )

Last nights yen surge did not look like speculation. I saw it tick for tick. It would appear that someone, or something big (a country maybe) had to buy a lot of yen after unwinding a trade, the yen was practically bidless.

The most hurt pair was the New Zealand dollar vs Yen which would make it seem like a carry trade unwind. The concept is you borrow a cheap to borrow currency like the yen, convert it to NZD, and then make 5% or so on NZD bonds or whatever you choose. This is a carry trade.

The borrowing rate is very low, and the return rate is decent. Of course is the currency shifts a lot the currency losses can outweigh the gains on the foreign investment. Now imagine if a lot of people are doing this, and one person capitulates. The next person may now face losses and capitulates sending the yen higher and higher, and so on.


Back on topic anyway:
I've seen figures for how much energy is generated when the plant was shutdown, a few hours after and and a day after. What is the figure after a week? Is there some rule of thumb for calculating this?

 

[Borek]

I've seen figures for how much energy is generated when the plant was shutdown, a few hours after and and a day after. What is the figure after a week? Is there some rule of thumb for calculating this?

Perhaps this earlier post will be helpful?

https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=3192902&postcount=301

 

[Borek]

Have you seen Fukishima NPP on Google earth? I just did. One thing caught my attention. Plant is on the shore, and the place was leveled for the construction. That's nothing unusual, but it seems like the ground was leveled down, by digging into the hill. I don't want to sound like one of those armchair specialists, but I don't understand why - in the place that is at high risk of tsunami - they have not built the plant a little bit higher. They already had to move large volumes of the sand & rock.

I understand they have their own port, and it is easier to operate loading/unloading when the plant is at lower level, but it seems to me the difference in safety if the plant was - say - 5 meters higher would be enormous.

 

[MadRocketSci2]

The Japanese did apparently plan for earthquakes and tsunamis at this plant. They had something like a 6 m sea-wall around it - they got a 7 m wave this time due to the unexpected magnitude of the event.

A lot of Japan's plants are along the coast - I suppose the reasoning was easy access to cooling water. I imagine in the future, they will build them further up, and build pipes down to the shore, or alternatively pay much closer attention to waterproofing the backup generators, or build newer generation plants that passively cool. There really isn't any part of Japan where they can build that doesn't get earthquakes. Furthermore, they don't have native coal supplies, so they had to rely on nuclear for a good portion their power.

 

[LanceV]

I'm happy to be proven wrong on this and I can only say the tongue looks like corium lava.

To me it looks like insulation as well.
Also, keep in mind that the temperature of the SFP was reported to be 84°C on the 15th. Hard to imagine that it would heat up to the several 1000°C required for melting in just one day. Even if there was no water and we were talking about unspent fuel rods. Furthermore radiation would have spread much farther if a molten core would just be flowing out of a building.

Meanwhile conflicting information appears concerning the possibility of the spent fuel rods igniting:
http://news.sciencemag.org/scienceinsider/2011/03/contention-over-risk-of-fire-fro.html?ref=ra

 

[Naty1]

I keep hearing news reports that helicopters are dropping water to cool REACTORS...

That's crazy, right? ... if containment structures are largely intact...so are they trying to refill and cool some spent fuel pools?

 

[Hologram0110]

I keep hearing news reports that helicopters are dropping water to cool REACTORS...

That's crazy, right? ... if containment structures are largely intact...so are they trying to refill and cool some spent fuel pools?

Yes. As I understand it, they were trying to get water in the the pools (it has been boiling off) because of the decay heat. As I understand it, the helicopter thing didn't really work at all. They are going to go in and spray the fuel ponds from the ground. This is taking a while because there is a huge amount of radiation if you don't have enough water to provide shielding.

Why they can't fill the pool remotely is beyond me? All it should really take is pipe /w a sprinkler over the pool that you can hook up to from the outside. Maybe it has to do with the electrical problems or something (but I'm not sure).

 

[Borek]

The Japanese did apparently plan for earthquakes and tsunamis at this plant. They had something like a 6 m sea-wall around it - they got a 7 m wave this time due to the unexpected magnitude of the event.

It is difficult to judge, as the picture is taken directly from above, but I don't see the wall; check the Google Earth images. Looks like the plant is open to the sea, with high ground behind (steep slopes are very well visible and they are behind all reactor buildings).

I am far from saying they didn't plan for an earthquake and tsunami, and I am fully aware they have not much choice. Still, putting the plant few meters higher seems not that difficult, especially in this particular place. Using Google Earth data ground is 40 meters above sea level less than 300 meters from the reactor buildings.

Edit: image added.

 

[Astronuc]

I keep hearing news reports that helicopters are dropping water to cool REACTORS...

That's crazy, right? ... if containment structures are largely intact...so are they trying to refill and cool some spent fuel pools?

I would expect that it is water being added to the spent fuel pools. As we understand it, the containment is intact, so flooding the floor would only affect the spent fuel pools (SFPs), and they are probably depositing that in the SFPs.

If there is a breach between the SFP an containment, that's a different story altogether. There is a fuel transfer canal between containment and SFP. That is how fuel is transferred from the containment to SFP. The fuel is kept underwater.

If there is a breach (leak) in the gate(s) between SFP and containment, then the water could leak out of SFP into containment. I don't know that is the case though.

Also, if there was a breach in the SFP (I'm not say there is, because I just don't know), then the cooling water could leak out in addition to evaporating.

 

[marwood]

The reports are indicating that hydrogen escaping into the outer shell of the reactor building caused the explosion which blew off the top of reactor building 1. The steel frame atop the reactor building 1 is visible to the right in the photo at (http://www.greenpeace.org/international/ReSizes/OriginalWatermarked/Global/international/photos/nuclear/2011/digitalglobe-flickr-Fukushima-Japan.jpg) (source reliability considered but the photo does not appear to have been edited).

Reactor building 4 to the left of the picture reportedly suffered from two fires, at least one of which was attributed to lube oil combustion. However in the photo the majority of the lower and upper east facing wall of the building appears to be blown out between framing, while the roof appears to remain in place, and as the photo in post 305 shows, much of the cladding wall of the upper north facing wall of building 4 remains. That result would appear to indicate damage other than form a lube oil fire, and from a different sort of explosion than damaged building 1.

If the building 4 explosion were due to hydrogen from the spent fuel pool or from steam venting from the containment rising why would the roof and top wall cladding remain while the lower east facing wall appears to be blown out? The JAIF report for 1600 hours on March 17 suggests Unit 4 containment integrity is not damaged. Do the remains of building 4 suggest an explosion lower down in the containment and a major breach of the containment (or in the torus if it is not considered part of the containment)? Or is there a more likely explanation for the pattern of building 4 damage?

 

[uart]

It is difficult to judge, as the picture is taken directly from above, but I don't see the wall; check the Google Earth images. Looks like the plant is open to the sea, with high ground behind (steep slopes are very well visible and they are behind all reactor buildings).

I am far from saying they didn't plan for an earthquake and tsunami, and I am fully aware they have not much choice. Still, putting the plant few meters higher seems not that difficult, especially in this particular place. Using Google Earth data ground is 40 meters above sea level less than 300 meters from the reactor buildings.

Edit: image added.

Yes it's difficult to judge elevation from that image but I can see the rocks that build up the seawall there.

Borek, myself and others have been saying the same thing previously in this thread. I know it sounds like a case of 20/20 hindsight but I'm also very surprised that a nuclear power plant would be so poorly protected from a tsunami.

In my opinion the quake was unavoidable but the tsunami was optional. And it's that "option" that is costing them so dearly now. I can see no reason why the plant couldn't have been situated where it would be safe from a 15m tsunami.

 

[TCups]

Question on timelines

Local, I am in USA Eastern Daylight Savings time and note that there is sometimes a 1-day difference between the day and time an event is reported in Japan, vs. the day and time I am hearing "breaking news". It is Thursday, 12:57 PM here, now. It is Friday, 1:56 AM at Fukushima. Obviously the international time line is in play.

Anyone have a source of a detailed local timeline for the events occurring at Fukushima that would avoid some of my confusion?