US Presidential Primaries, 2008

[Astronuc]

Obama going strong in Montana
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/03/dems.montana/index.html

(CNN) -- In a reminder that he can outperform rival Sen. Hillary Clinton in some states largely made up of white voters, Sen. Barack Obama appeared on track for a strong showing in Montana on Tuesday.

In exit polling of 1,247 voters, Obama appeared to be the choice of white voters who made up the overwhelming majority of respondents. Whites made up 91 percent in the polling, and those voters said they favored Obama 55 percent to 38 percent.

The performance, on a night he declared victory in the Democratic nomination campaign, will be the type that Obama's campaign points to in the fall. Obama has said he will abandon a Democratic strategy of targeting selected states and attempt a nationwide campaign that includes states thought to be reliably Republican.

Bravo, Obama!


CNN - Obama: I will be the Democratic nominee
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/06/03/election.democrats/index.html?iref=mpstoryview

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- In what he called a "defining moment for our nation," Sen. Barack Obama on Tuesday became the first African-American to head the ticket of a major political party.

Obama's steady stream of superdelegate endorsements, combined with the delegates he received from Tuesday's primaries, put him past the 2,118 threshold, CNN projects.

"Tonight we mark the end of one historic journey with the beginning of another -- a journey that will bring a new and better day to America," he said.

"Tonight, I can stand before you and say that I will be the Democratic nominee for president of the United States."

Obama's rally was at the Xcel Energy Center in St. Paul, Minnesota -- the same arena which will house the 2008 Republican National Convention in September.

Speaking in New York, Sen. Hillary Clinton, congratulated Obama for his campaign, but she did not concede the race nor discuss the possibility of running as vice president.

 

[Evo]

Too funny, it might have been a glitch but there was an official "sponsored by the Obama Presidential whatever" this morning already announcing his Presidential candidacy. Ooops, I guess that leaked out a bit prematurely, it disappeared soon after.

Also, I understand he's a politician First and Foremost that wants the Presidency very badly, but he needs to be careful not to come across as too much of a "goody two shoes" like this evening. I want to see a real person. Of course, I have no idea what Clinton was thinking.

I saw a poll on yahoo yesterday showing that 52% polled said Clinton should not give up yet.

I "do" think that the only way for the Democrats to win is with an Obama/Clinton ticket, however.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

An encounter that I had at the grocery store today while in line: A "gentleman" next to me pointed to the National Enquirer, which had a photo of Bill Clinton and some silly headline, and he said, "for once they got it right". I just smiled and replied, "It looks like Hillary could be the VP". To which he replied, "yeah, and someone will probably take them out". I asked if he meant assasination. He smiled and nodded, "uh huh". And then he paused, frowned, and added with a weakening voice, "But that would make the speaker of the House... the President". "Boy, we had better hope that doesn't happen", I said. He looked defeated and grunted, with the unspoken words hanging like a stench in the air: Damn! Can't even hope for assasination!

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

All she had to do was thank her staff, concede, and congratulate Obama. The fact that she didn't implies that she is angling for something, but what it is, no one but her can say for sure. Whatever it is, It isn't party unity. If he picks her for a running mate then I will definitely vote for McCain.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

I can't find a news story anywhere that reports the fact that Clinton did not concede anything at all last night. She is still running for the nomination. She said that she got more votes that Obama, and she said she got the important states. Is she going to take this to the convention? The news stories I read say she staying in the race for leverage. How does that work? Do they mean blackmail?

 

[TheStatutoryApe]

I can't find a news story anywhere that reports the fact that Clinton did not concede anything at all last night. She is still running for the nomination. She said that she got more votes that Obama, and she said she got the important states. Is she going to take this to the convention? The news stories I read say she staying in the race for leverage. How does that work? Do they mean blackmail?

I heard that she hadn't officially quit on the radio this morning. And with her debt I think she needs to make sure to cover her backside before she pulls out.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

I heard that she hadn't officially quit on the radio this morning. And with her debt I think she needs to make sure to cover her backside before she pulls out.

It's one thing to 'not officially quit' and quite another to be actively campaigning. In her speech, she went over the reasons why she would be a better nominee than Obama. She's still in it to win it. Even Bush has congratulated Obama.

 

[Gokul43201]

I can't find a news story anywhere that reports the fact that Clinton did not concede anything at all last night. She is still running for the nomination. She said that she got more votes that Obama, and she said she got the important states. Is she going to take this to the convention? The news stories I read say she staying in the race for leverage. How does that work? Do they mean blackmail?

One thing she needs is for people to keep donating to her campaign, so she can retire some of that huge debt she's acquired. She can seek donations only if she is actively campaigning. Another thing she will do is use the threat of staying in the race, till the party throws here a juicy bone. The majority leader position is clearly out of her reach, but maybe the NY Statehouse...maybe a committee chair...?

 

[Art]

I "do" think that the only way for the Democrats to win is with an Obama/Clinton ticket, however.

IMO Obama would be far less likely to win with the issues and baggage the Clintons would bring to the campaign which may put off many traditional democrats and definitely reduce the support of independents and moderate republicans.

Apart from the long history of sleaze and kickbacks there is the view many of the people who voted for her in the primaries were unhappy to see either a black man or a woman run for president and so voted for her as the lesser of two evils. It is likely given the opportunity they will vote for the white man come November and so I would question her ability to bring new votes to the party. In contrast one thing that is ensured is her presence on the ticket will energise the republican vote ensuring all those with only lukewarm support for McCain will go out to vote for him as a vote against her.

So what does Obama get in return? It appears he will get a VP who is seeking a coalition partnership rather than a second tier role. She and Bill will continue to play to their own agenda trying to outmanoeuvre and undermine him at each turn whilst stabbing him in the back at every opportunity.

She'd probably be listed as number one on Obama's SS's threat list

Does he need that sort of pain for little or no gain. I think not.

 

[mathwonk]

i agree with those who think senator clinton would be an unlikely and a poor choice as VP. Especially after last night, she presently alienates more people than she attracts, even among democrats.

 

[seycyrus]

An encounter that I had at the grocery store today while in line: A "gentleman" next to me pointed to the National Enquirer, which had a photo of Bill Clinton and some silly headline, and he said, "for once they got it right". I just smiled and replied, "It looks like Hillary could be the VP". To which he replied, "yeah, and someone will probably take them out". I asked if he meant assasination. He smiled and nodded, "uh huh". And then he paused, frowned, and added with a weakening voice, "But that would make the speaker of the House... the President". "Boy, we had better hope that doesn't happen", I said. He looked defeated and grunted, with the unspoken words hanging like a stench in the air: Damn! Can't even hope for assasination!

Yeah, I was at the coffeeshop last night and a bunch of people were all talking about how much they hoped that if McCain managed to win the general election, he would die of a heart attack. And then they continued to make similar age-related jokes forthe next 45 minutes.

 

[quadraphonics]

Seems a bit premature to hope for McCain's death given that he hasn't lined up a VP yet. What if Cheney ends up VP again :]

Seriously, though, there are rumors that Bobby Jindhal of Louisiana will fill out the ticket, in order to counteract the "black vs. white" aspect of the Presidential nominees.

 

[Evo]

i agree with those who think senator clinton would be an unlikely and a poor choice as VP. Especially after last night, she presently alienates more people than she attracts, even among democrats.

Not according to the latest polls. As of June 3rd, averaging the top polls, Clinton appears to be a stronger candidate against McCain than Obama. I don't think people realize just how popular she is. The last statistic shows that she has more supporters (votes) than Obama. Yep, Obama 17,773,626 48.0%, Clinton 17,822,145 48.1% (Obama's numbers include ALL of the unsupported votes in MI). Pretty damn close, so Obama won the DNC endorsement not by popular vote, (although the numbers are so close I'd call it a tie due to possible errors), but by delegates.

I'll stick my neck out here and predict Obama will lose without Clinton.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Not according to the latest polls.

I doubt these latest polls are late enough. Obama is going to enjoy a boost in popularity for at least a couple of days. My hat is off to Cindy Nunley of Wyoming. After polls closed last night, dozens of supers declared for Obama, roughly a dozen switched from Clinton to Obama, showing more party unity than Clinton herself, and nearly two declared for Clinton. Cindy is truly super.

 

[turbo]

Not according to the latest polls. As of June 3rd, averaging the top polls, Clinton appears to be a stronger candidate against McCain than Obama. I don't think people realize just how popular she is. The last statistic shows that she has more supporters (votes) than Obama. Yep, Obama 17,773,626 48.0%, Clinton 17,822,145 48.1% (Obama's numbers include ALL of the unsupported votes in MI).

I'll stick my neck out here and predict Obama will lose without Clinton.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

Polls this far out are notoriously unreliable, and neither Clinton nor Obama have a massive lead in any case. One thing that we can rely on is that the GOP attack machine will savage Clinton if she is on the ticket, and as a result, Obama will lose key support with independents and moderate Republicans. He needs a running mate that will not be a lightning-rod for hate radio. We all remember Travelgate, missing Rose law-firm billing records, Vince Foster's suicide, extremely fortunate cattle futures investments, Whitewater, and as many of Bill's infidelities as have been made public (it's hard to believe that there aren't more infidelities that have been hushed up). Why on Earth would Obama want to saddle himself with a running mate with that much baggage? That would be the kiss of death. If Obama wants to mend fences with Clinton supporters, he should select Kathleen Sebelius as his VP. Alternatively, he can pick somebody like Bill Richardson who may help bolster his support among Hispanics.

 

[Evo]

Polls this far out are notoriously unreliable

Yesterday is too long ago? Plus the number of voters in the primaries won't change that's over.

Since there are petitions online at ipetitions by democrats urging democrats not to vote for Obama, Obama is not only looking at fighting to win over Republicans, he's fighting to win over the 50% of Democrats that voted against him. What superdelagates decide in order to further their own political agendas means little, if anything to most people that vote. I know it doesn't matter to me.

 

[quadraphonics]

Alternatively, he can pick somebody like Bill Richardson who may help bolster his support among Hispanics.

Does this remind anyone else of that Dave Chappelle stand-up bit where he talks about a hypothetical first black president, and recommends that he find a Mexican VP to avoid being assassinated?

 

[Gokul43201]

Not according to the latest polls. As of June 3rd, averaging the top polls, Clinton appears to be a stronger candidate against McCain than Obama.

As of now, polls of this nature are essentially meaningless. At around this time, back in '92, Bill Clinton was lagging behind not only Bush Sr., but also Ross Perot, in the polls. That's what turbo means by polls, "this far out" - the general election is several months away.

I don't think people realize just how popular she is.

I don't think people realize how unpopular she is among the Right. Having her on the ticket is the surest way to energize a lackluster Republican campaign. She has the highest unfavorable ratings among all the 20 odd candidates that participated in the primaries.

The last statistic shows that she has more supporters (votes) than Obama. Yep, Obama 17,773,626 48.0%, Clinton 17,822,145 48.1% (Obama's numbers include ALL of the unsupported votes in MI).

Those numbers are still not correct. FL and MI were not legally conducted primaries. The candidates were not allowed to campaign there, and it is meaningless to count the results from those states. Like I've said before, if all the races were campaign free, Hillary would have twice or thrice the vote that Obama could have hoped to get. And giving Obama all of the uncommitted vote still doesn't make it fair. How does one judge what fraction of Obama supporters voted for Hillary, because his name wasn't on the ballot? The latest Michigan poll shows http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_democratic_presidential_primary . Compared to this, the numbers in RCP, give her a 15% margin in Michigan. The numbers in FL are also bad numbers because he wasn't allowed to campaign there.

Pretty damn close, so Obama won the DNC endorsement not by popular vote, (although the numbers are so close I'd call it a tie due to possible errors), but by delegates.

There is no such thing as winning the Primary by votes. But if you do count the votes in all the states where Clinton & Obama were allowed to campaign, in accordance with DNC rules, he beats her vote total as well.

I'll stick my neck out here and predict Obama will lose without Clinton.

If you want to look at general election head-to-heads this early, do take a look at the more relevant electoral vote numbers:

Obama 287 McCain 227 Ties 24

http://electoral-vote.com/

 

[turbo]

Yesterday is too long ago? Plus the number of voters in the primaries won't change that's over.

No, too far out means that calling the matchups between McCain and either Clinton or Obama is very unreliable. There is too much time between now and November. The Dems were fighting for support from within their own party state-by-state, and the dynamics of such a race is very different than what either of them would have to do to win a national contest in a general election. The public won't get a really good look at Obama until he starts hammering McCain on policy - his numbers are going to get a LOT better in the coming months.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I don't think people realize how unpopular she is among the Right. Having her on the ticket is the surest way to energize a lackluster Republican campaign. She has the highest unfavorable ratings among all the 20 odd candidates that participated in the primaries.

She has the highest negatives of anyone who has ever run for the office.

Those numbers are still not correct. FL and MI were not legally conducted primaries. The candidates were not allowed to campaign there, and it is meaningless to count the results from those states. Like I've said before, if all the races were campaign free, Hillary would have twice or thrice the vote that Obama could have hoped to get. And giving Obama all of the uncommitted vote still doesn't make it fair. How does one judge what fraction of Obama supporters voted for Hillary, because his name wasn't on the ballot? The latest Michigan poll shows http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_democratic_presidential_primary . Compared to this, the numbers in RCP, give her a 15% margin in Michigan. The numbers in FL are also bad numbers because he wasn't allowed to campaign there.

Yes, there were many examples of states where the numbers changed signficantly during the last few weeks, and directly due to Obama campaigning. When this all started, Hillary had a 30 point advantage, so we would expect this in States where Obama didn't campaign or wasn't even on the ballot.

There was also an issue of the caucus votes not counting, but I don't know if those numbers were included in Evo's numbers. But it is a fact that Hillary was only counting primary votes.

 

[turbo]

The numbers in FL are also bad numbers because he wasn't allowed to campaign there.

Clinton was ahead of Obama in the early contests in part because of her name recognition. When Obama was able to campaign actively in a state, his numbers usually came up very sharply. The Clinton name combined with the older population guaranteed Clinton a disproportionate win there absent an active primary campaign.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Provided that Obama doesn't have some kind of melt-down due to Rev Wright or the like, I'll stick with my Obama by 60-40, no matter who Obama picks. When I look at McCain, I see a disaster waiting to happen. I would bet a month's pay that he totally blows it.

His press conference this morning was almost spooky scary.

Did anyone watch George Will on Charlie Rose last night? He made some very interesting comments about McCain.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I wouldn't have tried to put a number to it, but George Will stated what I suspect is true: For every vote that Obama loses because he is black, he gains three because he is black.

Has anyone been tracking the world reaction to all of this. Shock and disbelief are words commonly used. It has been front-page news worldwide.

 

[turbo]

I wouldn't have tried to put a number to it, but George Will stated what I suspect is true: For every vote that Obama loses because he is black, he gains three because he is black.

And he's not actually losing as many votes as one might expect, because anybody who is racist at that level is not likely to vote for a progressive administration anyway, and would likely have supported McCain in the end. Just my opinion.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I think we are going to see black voters turn out in numbers far beyond anything seen before. This is not in any poll. "Likely" voters are deteremined by analyzing previous voting patterns.

 

[turbo]

I think we are going to see black voters turn out in numbers far beyond anything seen before. This is not in any poll. "Likely" voters are deteremined by analyzing previous voting patterns.

"Likely" voters in these polls also miss the huge influx of students that rallied to Obama and will support him in the general election. Obama's get-out-the-vote campaign was the best thing to happen to the Democratic Congressional candidates up for election in 2008. Those superdelegates won't say it, but they wanted to be in an election topped by Obama and NOT Clinton, as her huge negatives would energize the supporters of their Republican opponents.

 

[quadraphonics]

Provided that Obama doesn't have some kind of melt-down due to Rev Wright or the like, I'll stick with my Obama by 60-40, no matter who Obama picks. When I look at McCain, I see a disaster waiting to happen. I would bet a month's pay that he totally blows it.

He's pretty much already blown it. His appeal has always been based on his "maverick" status. But this persona is incompatible with running a successful campaign for/as the Republican nominee, let alone against a candidate like Obama. With every passing day, he cuddles up to yet another vile right wing group, and so further erodes his credibility with independents and progressives. If we could get the John McCain that has appeared on the Daily Show over the years into the White House, that would be great, but his campaign has devolved to the point where he's watered down his independence in all the areas where it counts, and yet still has limp Republican support. Not a recipe for a successful presidency. He still gets some points in my book for showing a bit of class and maturity regarding mudslinging and attack politics, but we're not yet into the heat of the contest, and that's not the sort of thing that merits the presidency in the first place.

 

[mathwonk]

remember, this is a new us, in which states like mississippi and alabama have successfully prosecuted KKK murderers from the 60's, where tubby smith was sought as basketball coach at UK (and canned). that suggests to me the anti black vote is not as large as some might think. as for mc cain, it is hard for me to identify any real appeal he has based on who he is now, as opposed to who he was.

 

[Evo]

That's what turbo means by polls, "this far out" - the general election is several months away.

Ooops, I certainly misread that one.

I don't think people realize how unpopular she is among the Right. Having her on the ticket is the surest way to energize a lackluster Republican campaign. She has the highest unfavorable ratings among all the 20 odd candidates that participated in the primaries.

Unfavorable just with Republicans? Because in popularity polls, Obama ranks 39.2 unfavorable , Hillary ranks 44% unfavorable and McCain ranks 38.8 unfavorable.

 

[turbo]

Unfavorable just with Republicans? Because in popularity polls, Obama ranks 39.2 unfavorable , Hillary ranks 44% unfavorable and McCain ranks 38.8 unfavorable.

We haven't seen Obama in full-on GE mode yet. McCain wants to have town-hall discussions with Obama, and that is a very scary scenario for the Republicans. Obama is very smart, smooth, knowledgeable, and self-assured in public speaking, and McCain is wooden, clumsy, and prone to misstatements, including his apparent inability to remember that Iranians are Shiite and al Qaeda is Sunni, and that Iran is not arming them. He conflates the Iraq insurgency with al Qaeda routinely, displaying a stunning lack of knowledge about what will be one of the most critical problems that the next president will face.

Obama's poll numbers will soar after one or two of these town-hall match-ups, as it becomes painfully evident that McCain is unqualified to serve as commander-in-chief.

 

[Gokul43201]

I wouldn't have tried to put a number to it, but George Will stated what I suspect is true: For every vote that Obama loses because he is black, he gains three because he is black.

That's directly in opposition to what the exit polls have been saying time and again.

Nevertheless, a reminder from the racists:

Clyburn: Clinton Supporters Flood Office With Hate Calls
FOXNews.com
Wednesday, June 4, 2008

An angry and upset Rep. James Clyburn said Wednesday that his office has been deluged with nasty phone calls with racial overtones since his endorsement of Barack Obama a day earlier.
...
“We got more vitriolic, nasty phone calls, really racially tinged phone calls in my congressional office, so much so, until one of the interns, a young lady who is not a stranger to politics … and she is not a black person, she left the office, had to be consoled because of the kinds of phone calls from people who identified themselves as Hillary Clinton supporters,” he said.

Clyburn said some of the callers used “names that I would not repeat on this show today.”

“I was absolutely shocked, could not believe that this happened. I could understand people saying, ‘Why are you doing this or why would you not support Hillary Clinton?’ but to call me the kinds of names I have not heard since the ’40s and ’50s,” he said.

http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/06/04/clyburn-clinton-supporters-flood-office-with-hate-calls/

 

[Gokul43201]

This is priceless! Y'all probably remember how her speech ended last night, but here's a reminder:

Now the question is, where do we go from here, and given how far we've come and where we need to go as a party, it's a question I don't take lightly. This has been a long campaign, and I will be making no decisions tonight. But this has always been your campaign, so to the 18 million people who voted for me and to our many other supporters out there of all ages, I want to hear from you. I hope you'll go to my website at HillaryClinton.com and share your thoughts with me and help in any way that you can. In the coming days, I'll be consulting with supporters and party leaders to determine how to move forward with the best interests of our party and our country guiding my way. And I want to conclude tonight by saying thank you.

So, okay...you go to http://hillaryclinton.com, and what do you find there?

A form where you enter your personal information and an optional message, but get this - the form has a stock message from "you" to Hillary, already filled out, and it says: "I'm with you Hillary, and I'm proud of everything we are fighting for".

So much for wanting to hear from "you"!

 

[Astronuc]

I'll stick my neck out here and predict Obama will lose without Clinton.

Based on what I was reading yesterday, that is a reasonable conclusion, unless Obama can change some opinions about himself, and find an appealing running mate.

Clinton does enjoy support among certain demographic groups.


On the other hand, I am saddened to see that media and apparently portions of the general public still consider race and gender to reasons to hold a negative opinion about someone. We have not progressed much from the 1960's.

 

[Evo]

This is priceless! Y'all probably remember how her speech ended last night, but here's a reminder:

So, okay...you go to http://hillaryclinton.com, and what do you find there?

A form where you enter your personal information and an optional message, but get this - the form has a stock message from "you" to Hillary, already filled out, and it says: "I'm with you Hillary, and I'm proud of everything we are fighting for".

So much for wanting to hear from "you"!

It's what you mentioned earlier, she has to continue campaining in order to be able to accept donations to reduce her debt. She's not stupid.

 

[Astronuc]

Clinton plans to end campaign on Friday: reports
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080604/pl_nm/usa_politics_clinton_abc_dc

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New York Sen. Hillary Clinton plans to drop out of the presidential race on Friday and cede the Democratic nomination to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, U.S. media reported on Wednesday.
. . . .

ABC reported that Clinton would hold an event on Friday flanked by supporters "in which we believe, all indications are she will concede the race, once and for all."

The New York Times quoted a senior adviser as saying Democratic members of Congress urged Clinton on Wednesday to leave the race and allow the party to coalesce around Obama. It quoted an aide as saying she would likely make the announcement in New York City.

Meanwhile Obama is now forming a committee to advise, and I guess contact, potential VP candidates. Apparently he's tapped Caroline Kennedy for the committee.