Financial mathematics - estimating a yield curve

In summary, the problem is to estimate a zero-coupon yield curve for up to 5 years ahead using a Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model. This involves solving an optimization problem to find the parameters that generate theoretical prices for the given bonds and a bill that are closest to their given market prices. This can be done using Excel Solver, but a more sophisticated math software may also be used.
  • #1
sorensen
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The problem is to estimate a zero-coupon yield curve for up to 5 years ahead, knowing (for time t=0) the following:
bond 1: coupon 6.5, maturity - 1 year, price = 103
bond 2: coupon 5, maturity - 2 years, price = 102
bond 3: coupon 4.2, maturity - 3 years, price = 100
bond 4: coupon 6.5, maturity - 4 years, price = 104
bond 5: coupon 5.2, maturity - 5 years, price = 99
price of a 1-week treasury bill of face value=100, is 99.94

I have digged through several papers on modelling yield curves and still am stuck. Given the relatively not-advanced-at-all mathematical prerequisites needed for the financial maths class I'm attending, i shyly presume that i should use a Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model here. Then - please correct me if I'm wrong - the task in fact is to solve an optimization problem of finding the parameters that generate theoretical prices for the given bonds and a bill that are the closest to their given market prices (using some MSE or RMSE estimator i guess).

How to implement that however is a mystery for me. Are such problems to be solved in some sophisticated maths software? Since the optimization problem here is non-linear i think it can't be 'treated' by Excel Solver (which i happen no to have anyway)?

I'd be thankful for any hint about this.

And by the way please excuse me for my lousy foreigner-vocabulary. ;)
 
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  • #2
Yes, you are correct in your assessment that you will need to use a Nelson-Siegel-Svensson model here. You can use Excel Solver if you have it, as long as you are able to define the objective and constraints properly. You may need to use the nonlinear solver though, as the nonlinear nature of the problem means it won't be solved by the linear solver alone. Alternatively, you can use a more sophisticated math software such as MATLAB or R for this task.
 

1. What is a yield curve and why is it important in financial mathematics?

A yield curve is a graphical representation of the relationship between the interest rate and the maturity date of a set of bonds. It is important in financial mathematics because it provides valuable information about the current and future state of the economy, as well as the expected returns on investments.

2. How is a yield curve estimated?

A yield curve is estimated by plotting the yields of bonds with different maturities on a graph and connecting the data points to create a curve. The yields can be obtained from the market or calculated using mathematical models.

3. What factors influence the shape of a yield curve?

The shape of a yield curve is influenced by various factors, including the current interest rate environment, inflation expectations, and market sentiment. Other factors such as economic conditions, central bank policies, and supply and demand for bonds can also impact the shape of the yield curve.

4. How can financial institutions use the yield curve to make investment decisions?

Financial institutions can use the yield curve to make informed investment decisions by analyzing the slope and shape of the curve. A steeply sloping yield curve may indicate an expectation of higher interest rates in the future, while a flat or inverted yield curve may suggest a potential economic downturn. This information can help institutions adjust their investment strategies accordingly.

5. What are the limitations of using the yield curve for financial forecasting?

While the yield curve can provide valuable insights into the state of the economy, it should not be the sole factor used for financial forecasting. The yield curve is subject to change and can be influenced by various factors, making it a less reliable indicator on its own. It is important to consider other economic data and market trends when making investment decisions.

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