Convex loss function & normal posterior - Bayes's rule?

In summary, the conversation discusses the loss function W(\theta - \delta) and its relation to the true parameter \theta and the estimator \delta. It also mentions the properties of W and the posterior density p(\theta | x). The main goal is to prove that, for a normal posterior density and under the given loss function, the posterior mean is the estimator that minimizes the expected loss. The expected loss is represented as U(\delta) and the challenge is to prove that it is convex. The person is seeking help with this proof.
  • #1
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Homework Statement



[itex]W(\theta - \delta)[/itex] the loss function.
[itex]\theta[/itex] the true parameter.
[itex]\delta[/itex] an estimator of [itex]\theta[/itex]
W a smooth, non-negative, symmetric, convex function.
[itex]p(\theta | x)[/itex] the posterior density of the parameter [itex]\theta[/itex].

Prove that, for normal posterior density [itex]p(\theta | x)[/itex] and under the loss function specified, the estimator that minimize the expected loss is the posterior mean.

Homework Equations


The expected loss can be written as
[itex]U(\delta) = E[W(\theta - \delta)] = \int W(\theta - \delta) p(\theta | x)d\theta[/itex]


The Attempt at a Solution


I really have no idea where to start. I suspect that [itex]U(\delta) [/itex] is also convex but I know no way to prove it.
 
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  • #2
I don't think I can use the fact that W is convex to prove this as W is a function of \theta - \delta. Any help will be greatly appreciated.
 

1. What is a convex loss function?

A convex loss function is a mathematical function used to calculate the error or deviation between a predicted value and the actual value. It is characterized by a bowl-shaped curve, where the lowest point of the curve represents the minimum error. Convex loss functions are commonly used in machine learning and optimization algorithms.

2. How is a convex loss function related to Bayes's rule?

Bayes's rule is a fundamental theorem in statistics that describes the relationship between conditional probabilities. It states that the posterior probability of an event is equal to the prior probability of the event multiplied by the likelihood of the event given the data, divided by the marginal likelihood of the data. In the context of machine learning, the likelihood term is often represented by a convex loss function.

3. What is a normal posterior distribution?

A normal posterior distribution is a probability distribution that represents the uncertainty of a parameter or set of parameters after taking into account prior information and new data. It is characterized by a bell-shaped curve and is often used in Bayesian inference methods. The normal distribution is also known as the Gaussian distribution.

4. How does Bayes's rule help with parameter estimation?

Bayes's rule is commonly used in Bayesian inference methods to update our beliefs about the value of a parameter after observing new data. It allows us to incorporate prior information and adjust our estimates based on new evidence. This can be particularly useful in situations where we have limited data, as the prior information can help improve the accuracy of our estimates.

5. Can convex loss functions be used in other contexts besides parameter estimation?

Yes, convex loss functions can be used in a variety of contexts besides parameter estimation. They are commonly used in machine learning algorithms for tasks such as classification and regression. They can also be used in optimization problems, where the goal is to find the minimum of a function. Additionally, convex loss functions have applications in economics, engineering, and other fields where minimizing error or maximizing a function is important.

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