Conditional Probabilities Complementary Proof

In summary, conditional probability is the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It differs from regular probability by taking into account additional information. The complementary event in conditional probability is the event that does not occur given that the first event occurs, and it is calculated using complementary proof. For example, if we have a bag with red and blue marbles, the probability of selecting a red marble on the second draw, given that the first marble was red, is 9/29 or 2/3 using complementary proof.
  • #1
rbzima
84
0
I'm having trouble seeing how this works out. It's blatantly obvious that this is true, but somehow I can't seem to get anywhere on paper with it to simplify it down to anything. Any help would be greatly appreciated!

[tex]P\left(A\right|B)=1-P\left(not A\right|B)[/tex]
 
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  • #2
P(A|B) = P(A&B)/P(B)
P(~A|B) = P(~A&B)/P(B)

What is P(A&B) + P(~A&B) = ?
 
  • #3


Conditional probabilities can often be confusing to understand, so it's completely normal to have trouble with it. Let's break down the equation to better understand it.

P(A|B) represents the probability of event A occurring given that event B has already happened. This can also be written as "the probability of A given B."

On the other hand, P(not A|B) represents the probability of event A not occurring given that event B has already happened. This can also be written as "the probability of not A given B."

Now, the complement of an event is the opposite of that event. In this case, the complement of A would be not A, and the complement of not A would be A.

So, the equation P(A|B)=1-P(not A|B) is saying that the probability of event A occurring given B, is equal to 1 minus the probability of event A not occurring given B.

This makes sense because the probability of all possible outcomes must add up to 1. So, if the probability of event A occurring given B is subtracted from 1, it leaves the probability of event A not occurring given B.

I hope this helps to simplify the concept for you. Remember, practice makes perfect, so keep working on problems and asking for help when needed. Good luck!
 

1. What is the definition of conditional probability?

Conditional probability is the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. It is calculated by dividing the probability of the joint occurrence of both events by the probability of the first event.

2. How is conditional probability different from regular probability?

Regular probability is the likelihood of an event occurring without any other conditions or constraints. Conditional probability takes into account additional information about the occurrence of an event.

3. What is the complementary event in conditional probability?

The complementary event in conditional probability is the event that does not occur given that the first event occurs. It is represented by P(Ā|B), where Ā is the complement of event A.

4. How is complementary proof used in conditional probabilities?

Complementary proof is used to calculate the probability of the complementary event in conditional probability. By subtracting the probability of the event from 1, we can find the probability of the complementary event occurring.

5. Can you provide an example of conditional probability with complementary proof?

Say we have a bag with 10 red marbles and 20 blue marbles. If we randomly select a marble and it is red, what is the probability that the next marble we select will also be red? The probability of selecting a red marble on the first draw is 10/30 or 1/3. The probability of selecting a red marble on the second draw, given that the first marble was red, is 9/29. This can also be calculated using complementary proof: P(Ā|B) = 1 - P(A|B) = 1 - (1/3) = 2/3.

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