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SavvyAA3
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Homework Statement
Suppose we are given a table of conditional probabilities as follows (probabilities are in brackets):
Service Level
Demand: Poor/ Standard/ Exceptional
Low: Poor Demand: (0.1) Standard Demand: (0.6) Exceptional Demand:( 0.3)
High: Poor Demand: (0.5) Standard Demand: (0.4) Exceptional Demand: (0.1)
We are told the following: At a telephone call centre, the service levels during each hour (from 0000 hrs to 0100hrs, 0100hrs to 0200hrs and so on) are classified as Poor, Standard or Exceptional, and the classifications for successive hours can be regarded as independent.
The probabilities of the different classification levels being achieved depend on whether demand each hour is High or Low (which is also independently determined in different hourly periods).
Supposing demand levels are low from 1200 to 1800 hrs, find the probability that exactly four of those hours are classified as exceptional
Homework Equations
Can someone please tell me how to go about answering this? Should I use a poisson distribution? If so what is the parameter. I know the interval is of length '4 hours' but what is the mean?
Can I use conditional probability theory? if so How?
Thanks. I've spent a whilie trying to see what model to use but I can't igure it out.