- #1
devil-fire
IDF(Israeli defense force)'s mission in Lebanon is to A) free their servicemen B)render Hezbollah unable to attack Israel from Lebanon. how successful do you think IDF will be on these fronts by the time they withdraw from Lebanon?
by the looks of it, there seems to be no shortage of resolve in the IDF and it seems they have the capacity to identify surface to surface missile sites and attack them with impunity. however, i don't know how they plan to interdict supplies from Syria or Iran (i haven't read much about the involvement of these countries with Hezbollah so I'm just going by what i hear on the news here) to Hezbollah without occupying Lebanon. unless IDF can get some better info on the location of Hezbollah leadership I'm wondering how much IDF is doing here aside from attacking resources that are replenishable and personnel that is recruitible. with the destruction of roads and bridges, that should slow down the resupply of Hezbollah for now. the way i see it, everything done in the last 2 weeks is temporary damage in this conflict unless there is regime change in Lebanon (although ineffective when dealing with Hezbollah, is the current regime not pro-west and pro-Israel interests?), a devastating blow to Hezbollah leadership or a long term occupation by IDF in Lebanon.
as for the IDF servicemen held by Hezbollah, I'm quite pessimistic. Hezbollah is vary intent on preventing them from being freed by military force and a rescue operation in an environment like this could put the held service men's lives at extreme risk. i don't expect the servicemen to be freed without negotiation of some kind. this looks like a lost cause to me, unfortunately.
my uneducated guess of future events goes something like this. 1) IDF will make some large incursions in the next two weeks as air strikes and missile attacks continue 2) Hezbollah will run out of missiles because of a combination of destroyed/expended/captured caches 3) the servicemen held by Hezbollah will be killed tragically in a failed rescue attempt 4) IDF will withdraw.
by the looks of it, there seems to be no shortage of resolve in the IDF and it seems they have the capacity to identify surface to surface missile sites and attack them with impunity. however, i don't know how they plan to interdict supplies from Syria or Iran (i haven't read much about the involvement of these countries with Hezbollah so I'm just going by what i hear on the news here) to Hezbollah without occupying Lebanon. unless IDF can get some better info on the location of Hezbollah leadership I'm wondering how much IDF is doing here aside from attacking resources that are replenishable and personnel that is recruitible. with the destruction of roads and bridges, that should slow down the resupply of Hezbollah for now. the way i see it, everything done in the last 2 weeks is temporary damage in this conflict unless there is regime change in Lebanon (although ineffective when dealing with Hezbollah, is the current regime not pro-west and pro-Israel interests?), a devastating blow to Hezbollah leadership or a long term occupation by IDF in Lebanon.
as for the IDF servicemen held by Hezbollah, I'm quite pessimistic. Hezbollah is vary intent on preventing them from being freed by military force and a rescue operation in an environment like this could put the held service men's lives at extreme risk. i don't expect the servicemen to be freed without negotiation of some kind. this looks like a lost cause to me, unfortunately.
my uneducated guess of future events goes something like this. 1) IDF will make some large incursions in the next two weeks as air strikes and missile attacks continue 2) Hezbollah will run out of missiles because of a combination of destroyed/expended/captured caches 3) the servicemen held by Hezbollah will be killed tragically in a failed rescue attempt 4) IDF will withdraw.