Turkey & Iraq: Regional War Looming?

[BobG]

Things in Iraq look like they're going to become even more complicated:

Turkish army seeks OK to strike inside Iraq

Turkey has been fighting a civil war with Turkish Kurds since 1984 (Kurdistan-Turkey). Their civil war is the reason Turkey is so opposed to an independent Kurdistan and why Turkey didn't let American troops use Turkey as a staging ground for the 2003 invasion.

From Turkey's point of view, the fears they had about an independent Kurdistan are already coming true. Kurdish rebels can use Northern Iraq as a staging ground for the fight against the Turkish government.

I think controlling Kurds in Northern Iraq might be beyond the capability of the Iraqi government, which is why Turkey's on verge of taking care of things, themselves. At a minimum, a Turkish invasion would reduce the number of Kurdish troops supporting problems around Baghdad. The US actually intervening militarily will be a problem, as well. You would have two NATO countries fighting each other, which has to be almost out of the question if we want NATO to survive.

This is going to be a huge challenge for the US to handle diplomatically and is probably more important than how we handle Iran. If Bush-Rice drop the ball on this, then you can consider the entire Middle East officially out of control. The chances of a regional war across the entire Middle East go from being a possibility to being probable.

 

[Ki Man]

if turkey goes hostile, that will be hell for all of out european allies, seeing as to how close turkey is to them geographically

 

[Astronuc]

Turkish Military Leader Prepared to Lead Attacks in Iraq
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/13/world/europe/13turkey.html

ISTANBUL, April 12 — The head of Turkey’s armed forces said publicly on Thursday, in the military’s sharpest language to date, that he was prepared to conduct operations in northern Iraq to crush Kurdish rebels hiding there.

It is a frightening situation for the United States, which is struggling to keep the war in Iraq from spreading beyond that country’s borders. And while the threat is not immediate — it would require approval from the country’s diverse Parliament — the issue has grown more urgent here in recent weeks, spurred by highly publicized funerals of soldiers killed in battles with rebels and by calls for action from politicians of all stripes.

“Should there be an operation into northern Iraq?” said Gen. Yasar Buyukanit, Turkey’s chief of staff, speaking at a hastily convened news conference in Ankara, his first since taking the position eight months ago. “If I look at it from an exclusively military point of view, yes, there should be. Would it be profitable? Yes, it would.” Still, he added that, “For a cross-border operation, there has to be a political decision.”

The remarks, the most strident in a series of recent expressions of rising frustration by Turkey, ratcheted up pressure on Iraq over the presence of Kurdish rebels based in the autonomous region south of the mountainous and porous border between Iraq and Turkey.

The issue is highly sensitive. While Shiite and Sunni Arab politicians in Iraq appear to be increasingly resistant to American influence, the Kurds remain the United States’ strongest allies in an increasingly bloody war.

Apparently the Kurdish leader, Massoud Barzani, a strong US ally, has made some provocative comments to the Turkish government/military. The issue is the threat of incursions by PKK members and essentially an insurgency based in N. Iraq (Kurdistan), which attacks across the border.

 

[devil-fire]

i have been under the impression that the kurds have not been involved much with the iraqi civil war so far. if turkey invades the kurdish areas of northern iraq i think it would reflect more on the usa's proliferation of lawlessness, instability and disorder more then it would have any military impact on the existing conflict.

however, it would have a huge impact on the iraqi Parliament since this invasion would not be vary important to the shia/sunni interests, making a significant divide in interests between the kurd and the shia/sunni

 

[Ki Man]

i have been under the impression that the kurds have not been involved much with the iraqi civil war so far.

mainly because the north is so heavily kurdish, there's not much room for insurgency

 

[Art]

if turkey goes hostile, that will be hell for all of out european allies, seeing as to how close turkey is to them geographically

Why will it be hell for europeans?

 

[Ki Man]

well... maybe not... but if something broke out in the carribean, we're not too far away from that. just a little bit more pressure

 

[Anttech]

Bah, the turks just want to surpress the kurds, just like they did to the Assyrians. The should allow them to have freedom because they are NOT Turkish, nor do they want to be.

As for being hell for the Europeans, what an absurds statement, you think we enjoyed the American Bullying tactics in the M.E.?

 

[J77]

if turkey goes hostile, that will be hell for all of out european allies, seeing as to how close turkey is to them geographically

You do know that part of Turkey is geographically in Europe, right?

 

[devil-fire]

the connection between turkey invading northern iraq and being hostile to european countries is not vary clear cut. i don't think turkey would plan on attacking coalition forces or anything. turkey would just be destabilizing the political efforts in iraq in regards to a unified country, contrary to some interests in europe.

i don't think there are many coalition forces in the northern area of iraq, and you could expect turkey to attack only areas without those forces because it would be a total disaster for turkey to accidentally injure an american soldier. all bridges, transformer stations, airports and major roads to be destroyed over night...well not really, but the americans would have a whole lot to say about it anyway.

 

[J77]

the connection between turkey invading northern iraq and being hostile to european countries is not vary clear cut. i don't think turkey would plan on attacking coalition forces or anything. turkey would just be destabilizing the political efforts in iraq in regards to a unified country, contrary to some interests in europe.

You "don't think"

Why would Turkey ever be hostile to (politically) European countries -- they've been trying to join for the past umpteen years

 

[devil-fire]

You "don't think"

Why would Turkey ever be hostile to (politically) European countries -- they've been trying to join for the past umpteen years

i was saying that turkey's invasion of iraq (if it were to happen) should not be considered hostile to coalition forces or countries, even though such an invasion would be bad for coalition interests.

 

[Manchot]

I've never understood the argument against creating an independent Kurdistan. I know that the US doesn't want to anger Turkey, but in the interest of Iraq's (and the whole Middle East's) stability, it's better off that way. Plus, I'd bet that Turkey wouldn't do anything about it, given their eagerness to join the EU.

 

[Anttech]

Turkey won't join the EU, its a carrot and wack wack wack of a stick, but the carrot isn't on the stick anymore they just get wacked But the wacking is making it a better country.

 

[Art]

I've never understood the argument against creating an independent Kurdistan. I know that the US doesn't want to anger Turkey, but in the interest of Iraq's (and the whole Middle East's) stability, it's better off that way. Plus, I'd bet that Turkey wouldn't do anything about it, given their eagerness to join the EU.

The argument against creating an independent Kurdistan is pretty obvious; Turkey doesn't want to give away a large chunk of it's territory anymore than the US would be prepared to allow part of it's southern states to become independent if Spanish speaking people there decided they'd like to create a new country for themselves. For the same reason I don't understand why you think it would bring stability to Iraq seeing as how part of this new Kurdistan would be carved out of Iraq.

As for Turkey standing aside and letting it happen? I presume you were joking? :uhh:

 

[J77]

Turkey won't join the EU, its a carrot and wack wack wack of a stick, but the carrot isn't on the stick anymore they just get wacked But the wacking is making it a better country.

They make European football exciting -- good enough for me

 

[Anttech]

They make European football exciting -- good enough for me

By stabbing Leeds supporters? :yuck:

 

[J77]

By stabbing Leeds supporters? :yuck:

Nah -- certainly not!

By the passion -- the voilence that some of their fans share should never be condoned.