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Mattius_
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I predict Bush Will...
Lose the election!
Lose the election!
Originally posted by Mattius_
I as hoping to generate discussion by keeping it open ended.
He's already alienated the south by proposing he doesn't need us to win
I'm not so sure that's not normal. When Clinton was in office, I had an 'anyone but Clinton' point of view. Every incumbent has their share of it.Originally posted by NateTG
The amount of 'anyone but Bush' sentiment is ... disturbing.
Originally posted by Njorl
He alienated the South by being from Massachussets. He might as well not lose votes elswhere by pandering to the archaic attitudes so common to the South.
Originally posted by Mattius_
Current statistics show that if there was an election TODAY, Kerry would end up with 43% of the vote, and bush with 47% 3% margin of error. However, if Kerry gets Edwards on his ticket as vice president(which is a serious possibility), he gains the entire south, because people from the south only vote for people with a southern accent. Truth!
Bush v. Dukakis (1988)
Evenutal results: Bush 52.3%, Dukakis 44.7%
Some of the polling:
The Toronto Star, 5/19/88:
A CBS/New York Times poll released Monday said Dukakis leads Bush 49-39 per cent and would beat the vice-president in all regions of the country if the election were held now. A Lou Harris poll Sunday gave Dukakis a 50-43 per cent edge.
WaPo, 6/30/88
In the Gallup poll of 1,210 registered voters conducted last weekend, Dukakis held a 46-to-41 percent lead over Bush, compared with a 52-to-38 percent lead he held in a similar poll in mid-June. The poll found Dukakis losing ground among most key voter groups, particularly self-described Democrats and independents, a key swing group.
The ABC News-Money Magazine poll gave Dukakis a 3 point margin, essentially a dead heat under the margin of polling error. In the last Washington Post-ABC News poll at the end of the May, which used the same methodology as this one, Dukakis had an 11 point lead.
The ABC-Money poll of 1,013 adults was taken June 22-26 and showed Dukakis dropping from being the choice of 52 percent of the general public to 45 percent. Bush gained 1 point, rising to 42 percent; those with no choice increased 4 points.>
NYT, 7/26/88
In the aftermath of the Democratic National Convention, the party's nominee, Michael S. Dukakis, has expanded his lead among registered voters over Vice President Bush, the probable Republican nominee, according to a Gallup Poll. This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.
Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win. The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points.
This represented a shift in Mr. Dukakis's lead from the 47 percent to 41 percent advantage he held in the last pre-convention Gallup Poll, taken by telephone July 8-10. In that poll, 1,001 registered voters were interviewed.
Originally posted by Chemicalsuperfreak
Kerry's peaked?
Bush peaked two and a half years ago. And he's been falling since.
Originally posted by russ_watters
I'm not so sure that's not normal. When Clinton was in office, I had an 'anyone but Clinton' point of view. Every incumbent has their share of it.
Originally posted by motai
"I predict Bush Will..." would be "choke on another pretzel"
Originally posted by skywise
I'm inclined to agree. ... I am reminded of the strange pattern of US presidents who die in office..
PRESIDENT-------YEAR ELECTED------CAUSE OF DEATH
William H. Harrison 1840 Pleurisy, pneumonia
Abraham Lincoln 1860 Assassinated
James Garfield 1880 Assassinated
William McKinley 1900 Assassinated
Warren Harding 1920 Pneumonia
Franklin D. Roosevelt 1940 Cerebral hemmorage
John F. Kennedy 1960 Assassinated
now... the pattern may have been broken with Regan. This, we have yet to see..
It may go something like..
Ronald Regan 1980 Nearly assassinated
George W Bush 2000 Choked on a pretzel
Jeez.. I feel weird predicting that the prez will die in office... should I be worried about men in black showing up at my door? *knock knock*
Originally posted by Zero
1>I am declaring right now that Osama Bin Laden will be trotted out on Halloween, +/- a week. It is the only way for Bush to ensure victory, besides rigging the election again.
2>Every time something "good"(politically) happens, Bush's numbers go up. As soon as it fades from memory, his numbers go back down.
Originally posted by phatmonky
Great, someone who thinks all intelligent life lives on either coast
You really crack me up sometimes, Zero. I can't always tell if you actually believe everything you write(I sure hope not), but it really seems you do believe that one.Originally posted by Zero
It is the only way for Bush to ensure victory, besides rigging the election again.
Just because you don't like the evidence, doesn't mean the evidence doesn't exist...but that is neither here nor there, so stick to the topic.Originally posted by russ_watters
You really crack me up sometimes, Zero. I can't always tell if you actually believe everything you write(I sure hope not), but it really seems you do believe that one.
Originally posted by Njorl
Which coast are Michigan and Ohio on again? Also, when did the Carolinas and Georgia secede from the Atlantic Coast?
There is this bizarre perception that not pandering to the South is somehow parochial and narrow minded. The narrow mindedness is not in those who refuse to pander, but in those who insist that they be pandered to. It is the majority of southern voters who are narrow minded, not "Northeastern Liberals" or "Bi-coastal establishment types". Nobody fears their candidate will be unacceptable to the midwest, or the Rocky mountain states. It is only the South that earns this privilage.
Everyone knows the dirty little secret. To be "acceptable" in the South, you need to foster the impression that you are at least a closet racist. The media dance around this, saying that southern voters are for non-interference by government, or a strong military, or for traditional values. Richard Nixon knew the real path to winning the south was through lambasting school busing. Ronald Reagan made up stories about black "welfare queens". Bush the elder Willie Hortoned his way to victory. Bush the younger went to Bob Jones university to deliver his wink and nod to fellow racists to let them know, "I'm one of you boys."
Njorl
Originally posted by megashawn
1>Woa, dude, don't you think your being just a lil touchy here?
2>I mean, let's face it. A good majority of people in the south are very much still racist, and portray an attitude that is very similar to your last response.
3>Now, I'm from north carolina, AKA the middle east, and most of what Njorl said is quite true. I know of several people who plan to vote for bush.
4>When I query them why they think he deserves another term, few can give a good explanation. They denie the lies we we're told about iraq, hell, some people actually think we have found WMD's and ties to OBL. Heck, my girlfriend told me she plans to vote for bush, because that's who her brother is voting for. I suspect there are plenty of other voters who vote for who there family tells them to.
5>The south is quite an armpit,
6>I love it here, I hope to be able to piss enough people off that they move the bible belt to the closest.
7> Unfortunatly, as was mentioned, if you don't have a southern accent, your not getting much of a vote from the south.
___
8>But this brings another question about election. I admit, I'll be 24 this year and I've never voted.
9> The entire process is to complicated.
10> Anyhow, if I vote for say, kerry, but Bush wins NC, does my vote still support kerry?
11> Because doesn't each state have an electorate vote, which represents the entire state? If this is so, it certainly seems it will be pointless for me to vote, without moving to a kerry supporting state.
12>I certainly hope that bush gets kicked to the curb, if he gets another 4 years, it might be worth our time to reread the John Titor prophecys.
Originally posted by selfAdjoint
Exit polls say kerry is way ahead in both SOUTHERN states tonight, despite not campaigning there and despite some stupid things he said about blowing off the south. So much for the first order "everybody I know is a racist - he's going to lose", "lots of blacks in the south - he's going to win" predictions. The world is more complicated than that.
LOL, I think his cover might be blown by now. America will not stand for crooks like Bush, for if his reign continues for another 4 years the Republic might fall.I think that a big difference between people who will and will not vote for bush is whether they realize that he is a big liar.