Deriving the binomial distribution formula

In summary, the conversation is discussing the derivation of the binomial distribution formula. The bolded part refers to finding the probability of a specific order of successes and failures in a binomial experiment. The formula for this is pxqn-x, where p is the probability of success, q is the probability of failure, and x is the number of successes. The nCx part of the formula accounts for the different ways in which the successes and failures can be arranged and eliminates the need to specify a specific order. This is useful for calculating the probability of a certain number of successes in a certain number of trials.
  • #1
Saladsamurai
3,020
7
I am trying to follow along with this derivation of the binomial distribution formula:
b(x;n,p) = nCx*pxqn-x

But I do not really understand the meaning of the part on bold. What is this "specified order" business now? I feel like I am missing something big here.

Let us now generalize the above illustration to yield a formula for b(x;n,p). That is, we wish to find a formula that gives the probability of x successes in n trials for a binomial experiment. First, consider the probability of x successes and n — x failures in a specified order. Since the trials are independent, we can multiply all the probabilities corresponding to the different outcomes. Each success occurs with probability p and each failure with probability q = 1 — p. Therefore, the probability for the specified order is pxqn-x. number of sample points in the experiment that have x successes and n — x failures. This number is equal to the number of partitions of n outcomes into two groups with x in one group and n—x in the other and is written nCx as introduced in Section 2.3. Because these partitions are mutually exclusive, we add the probabilities of all the different partitions to obtain the general formula, or simply multiply pxqn-x by nCx.
 
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  • #2
Think about what the "nCx" part of the formula does.

Let's say we're rolling a regular dice 4 times, and we want the probability of a 6 only once. We know this would consist of 1 success and 3 failures ( [tex]\frac{1}{6}\frac{}{}[/tex] )( [tex]\frac{5}{6}[/tex] )3, however it does not account for which roll we get the 6, since it can occur in any 1 out of the 4 rolls, we multiply by 4C1.

So that "specific order" business is to eliminate the need to account for exactly when our successes occur

Does that make sense?
 

1. What is the binomial distribution formula?

The binomial distribution formula is a mathematical formula that calculates the probability of a certain number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials. It is used when there are only two possible outcomes, often referred to as success and failure, and the probability of success remains constant for each trial.

2. How is the binomial distribution formula derived?

The binomial distribution formula is derived using the binomial theorem, which is a mathematical theorem that expands expressions of the form (a + b)^n. By representing the probability of success and failure as a and b respectively, and using the binomial theorem, we can calculate the probability of different outcomes in a binomial experiment.

3. What are the key components of the binomial distribution formula?

The key components of the binomial distribution formula are the number of trials (n), the probability of success (p), and the number of successes (r) that we are interested in calculating the probability for. These components are represented in the formula as nCr * p^r * (1-p)^(n-r), where nCr is the combination formula for choosing r objects from a set of n objects.

4. When should the binomial distribution formula be used?

The binomial distribution formula should be used when there are only two possible outcomes, the probability of success remains constant for each trial, and the trials are independent. This is often the case in real-life situations such as coin flips, card draws, and product defect rates.

5. Can the binomial distribution formula be used for large sample sizes?

Yes, the binomial distribution formula can be used for large sample sizes as long as the probability of success remains constant and the trials are independent. However, for very large sample sizes, it may be more efficient to use the normal distribution approximation of the binomial distribution formula.

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