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QuantumTheory
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My grandpa is an investor . I heard some people get rich off the stock market.
Is it possible to predict stock market prices?
thank you
Is it possible to predict stock market prices?
thank you
https://db.tradek.com/w/content/howto/trading/trading_ib6.htmlIn recent years as computers have been used to do a lot of number crunching, many "quants," as they like to call themselves, have gone completely native and will only buy and sell companies on a purely quantitative basis, without regard for the actual business or the current valuation - a radical departure from fundamental analysis. "Quants" will often mix in ideas like a stock's relative strength, a measure of how well the stock has performed relative to the market as a whole. Many investors believe that if they just find the right kinds of numbers, they can always find winning investments. D. E. Shaw is widely viewed as the current King of the Quants, using sophisticated mathematical algorithms to find minute price discrepancies in the markets. His partnership sometimes accounts for as much as 50% of the trading volume on the New York Stock Exchange in a single day.
FredGarvin said:Don't you think if it were possible, there would be some very very wealthy people out there?
We had a very knowledgeable professor who hardly spent time to answer students' questions out of the class( I was an exception of course ). he was always sitting in front of his computer and we thought he was sutudying physics articles, but once 1 of his student had discovered that actually he was visiting a stock market site! And I should tell you he was really rich ,although he was only 35! So yes, it might be possible and you...:tongue2:Tom Mattson said:Yeah, jeez, if it were possible to do that, I wouldn't be sitting around here talking to you people. :tongue2:
QuantumTheory said:Is it possible to predict stock market prices?
QuantumTheory said:Thanks for the great post Pengwuino
PHysics whiz, do you know a lot about physics?
I'm 17 and don't know what to do yet, and I hope this will help me decide,thanks!
Pengwuino I will ask you more questions on stock by PM, is that ok with you?
FredGarvin said:Don't you think if it were possible, there would be some very very wealthy people out there?
Physics_wiz said:It looks like we have some stuff in common . Well ok, first, I don't really know much about physics. I created this account when I was in high school and was pretty good at my AP physics class. Right now, I'm in engineering...still know some physics but not much. I recently got interested in stocks and the stock market too and got a few books. I even decided on buying a few SPY shares for now until I read up more on the stock market. If you have stock questions, post them here! I'd be happy to discuss them or learn something new from the thread. Guess what? When I first started, I downloaded a few spreadsheets of data to check for any trends...I was a bit stupid. Anyways, read a few books on the stock market, they help a lot. Also, I found "Fooled by Randomness" to be an awesome book. It won't teach you much, but the author makes some very good points (pay attention to what he says) that most 17 years old or 19 years old (me) people don't know about.
QuantumTheory said:Pengwuino I will ask you more questions on stock by PM, is that ok with you?
fourier jr said:ya if it were possible to use calculus to get rich off the stockmarket wouldn't literally everybody who follows that stuff make a killing? it's like asking if statisticians & probabilists know any tricks to use at a casino.
Could you please show us one of these derivations?elfboy said:I have done work on this this for awhile and have derived equations that describe the mechanics stocks market based on empirical observations. it works by breaking buy & sell orders into individual 'electrons' and 'positrons' and then there are other variables like volume
For some reason I actually trust what random people say in this thread more without having seen their credentials than that I trust the VPRO. You know these guys often obfuscate references to evolution right?edward said:You folks really need to watch the Alchemists of Wall Street.
Many of the big investment banks are already doing what some here have questioned as being possible. It is all higher math.
I'll try to find a shorter version.
ZQrn said:For some reason I actually trust what random people say in this thread more without having seen their credentials than that I trust the VPRO. You know these guys often obfuscate references to evolution right?
Also, the first guy already says an 'of course', which is hardly 'of course', a lot of people didn't make more money, they went bankrupt.
No, because the VPRO produced it, and because it already starts with a pretty unbelievable claim it does not back up.edward said:You are not trusting the video because of the web site?? It was on other web sites, that was just the first one I found.
How about a shorter version from the WSJ, this one has a lot about the economy going in the tank. 4 minutes 41 seconds.
http://online.wsj.com/video/quants-...sis/53169DF3-31BD-42B4-AC13-445C50272120.html
ZQrn said:No, because the VPRO produced it, and because it already starts with a pretty unbelievable claim it does not back up.
They're sensationalists, it's essentially the resident punker public broadcaster here.
Of course, all mainstream broadcasting distorts science like it's a party.
I guess the expectancy value of trusting the maths is higher than trusting the instincts of the average casual stock investor though.Evo said:Perhaps this works when you are spreading millions across a ton of different stocks, but for the small investor that can only afford a few, I doubt that there would be any longterm success.
Just as any long term prediction for the trajectory of a bullet, but people are still made to believe you can do that with calculus.cronxeh said:I can tell you definitively that any math that you use for long term prediction of the stock market is going to be 100% wrong. There is absolutely, unequivocally, unfathomably, no doubt in that.
ZQrn said:Just as any long term prediction for the trajectory of a bullet, but people are still made to believe you can do that with calculus.
Also, define: 'long term', define 'wrong' et cetera et cetera.