Find Exact Confidence Intervals: Tips & Techniques

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In summary, the conversation discusses the process of finding exact confidence intervals and the conditions and methods involved. It is mentioned that textbooks often only provide approximate CIs using the assumption that the expression \frac{\hat{\theta}-\theta}{se(\hat\theta)}}\rightarrow Z. However, it is possible to find exact CIs depending on the distribution of the statistic. An example is given for a normal distribution with known sigma, but it is acknowledged that finding exact CIs may be more difficult for other distributions. In these cases, one may need to use large sample approximations or numerical simulation.
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logarithmic
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Does anyone know how to find exact confidence intervals? I've looked through textbooks, but they only find approximate CIs using the assumption that [tex]\frac{\hat{\theta}-\theta}{se(\hat\theta)}}\rightarrow Z.[/tex]

So given a estimator, [tex]\hat\theta[/tex] do I have to find an exact distrubution for the above expression first. And is there any nice way to do this?
 
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  • #2
logarithmic said:
[tex]\frac{\hat{\theta}-\theta}{se(\hat\theta)}}\rightarrow Z.[/tex]
This result is by CLT depending on certain conditions.
Of course exact CI's are available. This depends on distribution of the statistic. Example:
x1,x2,...,xn is a sample from N(mu,sigma). Sigma known. Exact CI for mu can be easily found (available in most of textbooks of appropriate standard).
 
  • #3
ssd said:
This result is by CLT depending on certain conditions.
Of course exact CI's are available. This depends on distribution of the statistic. Example:
x1,x2,...,xn is a sample from N(mu,sigma). Sigma known. Exact CI for mu can be easily found (available in most of textbooks of appropriate standard).

Yeah, I'm aware of that. Your example relies on the fact that you know exactly the distribution of the expression above, which is normal. But what if you can't find that easily, e.g. if your X_i's are from an exponential distribution.
 
  • #4
logarithmic said:
Yeah, I'm aware of that. Your example relies on the fact that you know exactly the distribution of the expression above, which is normal. But what if you can't find that easily, e.g. if your X_i's are from an exponential distribution.

Your question does not appear very specific to me. Of course one needs to know the distribution of the statistic. There is no unique or universal way to find distributions of all statistics from all distributions. If the distribution cannot be enumerated then one tries large sample approximations or numerical simulation.
 

What is a confidence interval?

A confidence interval is a range of values that is likely to include the true value of a population parameter with a certain level of confidence. It is calculated from a sample of data and is used to estimate the true value of a population parameter.

Why is it important to find exact confidence intervals?

Finding exact confidence intervals is important because it gives a more accurate estimate of the true value of a population parameter. It takes into account the variability of the data and provides a more precise range of values rather than just a single point estimate.

How do you calculate a confidence interval?

A confidence interval is calculated using the sample data and a specific level of confidence, typically 95%. The formula for calculating a confidence interval is: point estimate ± (critical value) x (standard error). The critical value is based on the chosen level of confidence and the standard error is a measure of the variability of the data.

What is the difference between a one-sided and a two-sided confidence interval?

A one-sided confidence interval only considers values on one side of the point estimate, while a two-sided confidence interval considers values on both sides of the point estimate. One-sided intervals are used when the direction of the effect is already known or not of interest, while two-sided intervals are used when the direction of the effect is not known or both directions are of interest.

What are some common misconceptions about confidence intervals?

One common misconception is that a confidence interval represents the range of values within which the sample data falls. In reality, it is the range of values that is likely to include the true value of the population parameter. Another misconception is that a larger confidence interval indicates a more precise estimate, when in fact a smaller confidence interval indicates a more precise estimate.

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