Paul Octopus: 7 Consecutive Winner Predictions?

  • Thread starter Calimero
  • Start date
In summary, Paul the octopus accurately predicted 8 matches in the World Cup, with a 0.1% chance of randomly choosing the winners. This assumption is based on the fact that all outcomes were independent and assuming that teams are of equal quality, with the first 3 matches potentially being ties and Paul not having a "tie" option to choose. There is speculation that Paul may have chosen the winning teams based on the amount of red in their flags, as all the times Germany won, they had more red in their flag, except for Ghana which was equal. This impressive ability of a head-footed creature to pick winners raises questions and amusement for many.
  • #1
Calimero
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What were the chances that Paul the octopus predicts winners in 7 matches in a row? Assuming that teams are of equal quality, and that first 3 matches could have been tie, and that he didn't have 'tie' option to choose.
 
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  • #2
Assuming that all the outcomes were independent,

[tex]\left( \frac{1}{3} \right)^3 \cdot \left( \frac{1}{2} \right)^4 \approx 0.2 \% [/tex]
 
  • #3
Thanks CompuChip. Whole thing is very amusing.

Edit: He actually accurately predicted 8 matches in World cup, so it would be around 0.1% chances to pick the winners on random basis.
 
Last edited:
  • #4
I suspect that he picked the countries based on how much red is in the flag... all the times Germany won, they had more red in their flag with the exception of Ghana, which was equal. Both times Germany lost it was to countries with as much or more red in their flags
 
  • #5
Maybe Paul can help me finally hit the pick 6. Been trying since '04. A dadburn head-foot can pick seven, and I can't pick a lousy six? It ain't right.
 
  • #6
Office_Shredder said:
I suspect that he picked the countries based on how much red is in the flag... all the times Germany won, they had more red in their flag with the exception of Ghana, which was equal. Both times Germany lost it was to countries with as much or more red in their flags

I hope this or some similar rational explanation works because otherwise, this is downright freaky!
 

1. How did Paul Octopus make 7 consecutive winner predictions?

Paul Octopus was trained by his handlers at the Sea Life Aquarium in Germany to select between two boxes of food, each marked with a different team's flag. The box he chose first was considered his prediction for the winning team.

2. What was Paul Octopus' success rate in predicting winners?

Paul Octopus correctly predicted the winner of the 2010 FIFA World Cup seven times in a row, giving him a 100% success rate.

3. Did Paul Octopus have any previous experience or training in predicting sports outcomes?

No, Paul Octopus did not have any previous experience or training in predicting sports outcomes. He was simply trained to select between two food boxes based on visual cues.

4. Were there any scientific explanations for Paul Octopus' accurate predictions?

Some experts suggest that Paul Octopus' predictions were purely based on chance and that his success was a statistical anomaly. Others argue that he may have been influenced by subtle cues from his handlers or the environment, such as differences in the scent or temperature of the food boxes.

5. Have there been any other animals or creatures with similar abilities to predict sports outcomes?

Yes, there have been several other animals and creatures that have been used for predicting sports outcomes, such as Shaheen the camel, Achilles the cat, and Fred the ferret. However, none have achieved the same level of success as Paul Octopus.

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