Is it possible to create an edge in coin toss bet?

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In summary, the conversation discusses the probability of consecutive heads or tails occurring in a series of coin tosses. The probability of this happening in a cluster of 10 tosses is shown to be greater than 0.86. The conversation also considers the idea of using this probability to create a strategy for betting on coin tosses, but it is ultimately deemed a fallacy due to the law of large numbers.
  • #1
scalpmaster
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http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/probable/flips.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feller's_coin-tossing_constants

In the above 2 links, it's mentioned that if we toss a fair coin ten times then the exact probability that NO consecutive heads come up in succession (i.e. n = 10 and k = 2) is
p(10,2) = 0.14...

So, the probability of at least one pair of heads, or tails, in 10 tosses is approx 1-0.14 ~0.86

Can we somehow create a strategy with this probability to have a positive expectation game?

Event A: prob. of next toss is always 0.5
Event B: prob. of having consecutive heads or tails in cluster of 10 tosses is > 0.86

Considering event B only as our universe, we employ a cancellation scheme such that in a cluster/interval of 10 tosses, when we first encounter a win of 1unit, on the next toss, we bet Sum of total losses(within that cluster).
If this bet win, we have a net win of 1unit & we restart count of cluster of 10 with first 1unit bet again. If not, we bet 1unit until we encounter another win and ,on the next toss, bet sum of total losses(within that cluster) again.
This betting pattern will remain within 10 tosses, then we restart/count all over again regardless its a net win or loss within 10 tosses.

With event B .i.e. Group of 10 tosses as an "event" with prob>0.86 rather than event A i.e. single toss as an "event", I wonder if we can achieve a positive expectation with some kind of edge. If so, then any trading system with win/loss hit ratio of 50% can be profitable.
 
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Since "prob. of next toss is always 0.5," it would not matter when you place your bet. It would not matter if it is after a win or a loss.

As for betting the sum of total losses, this is similar to a "martingale" betting scheme, in that the bet would be increased after a loss.
 
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  • #3
MisterX said:
Since "prob. of next toss is always 0.5," it would not matter when you place your bet. It would not matter if it is after a win or a loss.
As for betting the sum of total losses, this is similar to a "martingale" betting scheme, in that the bet would be increased after a loss.

So i guess considering the single probability (in groups of 10) as a solo event is also a fallacy? Law of large number discounts "Everything" else.
This is Not similar to martingale in that the key is Not about increasing bet size after a win Or loss but rather on the condition that "If a coin was tossed 10 x 10 times, i.e. Ten events B, there would be at least 8 out of 10 events, a consecutive head appearing within an event"...
.i.e. A 86% prob. single event
 
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1. Can a coin toss be manipulated to create a consistent edge in a bet?

No, a coin toss is a random event and cannot be manipulated to create a consistent edge in a bet. The outcome of a coin toss is determined by factors such as initial force, air resistance, and surface properties, which cannot be controlled.

2. Is there a strategy or technique that can increase the chances of winning a coin toss bet?

No, there is no strategy or technique that can increase the chances of winning a coin toss bet. As mentioned before, a coin toss is a random event and the outcome cannot be predicted or influenced.

3. Are there any external factors that can affect the outcome of a coin toss?

Yes, external factors such as wind speed, temperature, and altitude can potentially affect the outcome of a coin toss. However, these factors are unpredictable and cannot be controlled, so they do not provide a consistent edge in a coin toss bet.

4. Are there any mathematical formulas that can predict the outcome of a coin toss?

No, there are no mathematical formulas that can accurately predict the outcome of a coin toss. The outcome is determined by many random variables, making it impossible to predict with certainty.

5. Can a weighted coin be used to create an edge in a coin toss bet?

No, using a weighted coin to create an edge in a coin toss bet is considered cheating and is not a reliable or ethical method. In addition, most betting establishments have measures in place to prevent the use of weighted coins.

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