What is the Probability of Someone Replicating Your Actions in a Day?

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In summary, the conversation discusses predicting the probability of someone doing the same thing within a day. Factors such as the world population and the number of seconds in a day are considered, but calculating the exact probability is difficult. The conversation also questions the reliability of the information from the C.I.A Fact Book and the importance of transparency in sharing public information. The conversation also touches on the concept of national security in relation to this topic.
  • #1
Prague
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How do you suppose you predict the probability someone will do the same thing you did within a day?

I suppose you would need to know the total populations, and according to the C.I.A Fact Book it is 6,379,157,361 (July 2004 est.), which is good enough for me. And I suppose you would need to know how many seconds someone could initiate a certain task (we are setting the intitial time it takes to start a task to = 1 second). So it takes one second to start task and there are 86400 seconds in a day. That means that there is 86,400 possible chances for someone to do something.

so a single person has 1/86,400 chance of doing something.

Now you need to incorporate the population minus you. So it would be 6,379,157,360 people have a 1/86,400 chance of doing something.

This is where I don't know what to do next. Would you need to know that there are a total of 5.511591959 x 10^14 chances that someone on the Earth is doing something, but how to you calculate something? A task I mean.

*this may not make sense, because I just edited it and it didn't make much sense to me :grumpy: but I think you may get what I am getting at anyways.
 
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  • #2
The key thing you are missing is the probability of anyone individual doing whatever particular "thing" you are talking about.

The probability of some one person somewhere in the world having a beer withing a day of the time you did is pretty darn close to 1.

On the other hand if you were to break the worlds record in the 1500 m run, the probability of some one person in the world doing the same thing within a day is awfully low.
 
  • #3
Oh,and don't rely on C.I.A. Fact Book...They never heard of significant digits and error analysis...:yuck:

Daniel.
 
  • #4
I'm amazed that the C.I.A would publish a fact book! Isn't everything they do secret?

(Perhaps you meant "Culinary Institute of America"?)
 
  • #5
Should the world population be kept a secret...?I believe transparency of public interest information should be true for every institution.

And is this a matter of national security?I doubt it.

Daniel.
 

1. What is the probability that someone is left-handed?

The probability that someone is left-handed is approximately 10%, according to a study by the National Institutes of Health. However, this number may vary depending on factors such as age and gender.

2. How is the probability of someone having a certain disease calculated?

The probability of someone having a certain disease is typically calculated using a combination of factors such as prevalence of the disease in the population, individual risk factors, and diagnostic tests. It is important to note that probability is not a definite answer, but rather an estimation based on available data.

3. Can the probability of someone being tall be accurately predicted?

The probability of someone being tall can be predicted to some extent based on their genetic makeup and environmental factors. However, it is not a guarantee as there are many variables that can influence a person's height.

4. How does the probability of someone winning the lottery compare to other events?

The probability of someone winning the lottery is extremely low, typically around 1 in millions or even billions. This probability is much lower than the probability of other events, such as getting struck by lightning or getting in a car accident.

5. Is it possible for the probability of someone having a certain trait to change over time?

Yes, the probability of someone having a certain trait can change over time due to various factors such as age, lifestyle changes, and genetic mutations. This is why probability is often used as an estimate rather than a definite answer.

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