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Johan de Vries
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http://physicsworld.com/cws/article/news/30711
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New statistical analysis confirms human role in climate change
The idea that global warming is caused by changes in solar output rather than human activity has been dealt a further blow by a new analysis of temperature, volcanic and solar-radiation data by a physicist in Germany. The research, carried out by Pablo Verdes from the Heidelberg Academy of Sciences in Germany, does not rely on climate models, which cannot account for all global-warming mechanisms. Instead, the work reveals a strong statistical link between rising temperatures and greenhouse gas emissions (Phys. Rev. Lett. 99 048501).
Most of the evidence for human-induced or “anthropogenic” climate change has come from climate models, which simulate the dynamics of the atmosphere using complex fluid-flow equations. Given inputs of temperature and other climate data from instruments and older proxy records, such as tree rings, these equations are solved numerically using short time increments.
Although all climate models indicate that the Earth’s temperature will continue to rise, some climate-change sceptics have suggested that the anthropogenic influences are exaggerated. For example, because the simulations divide the atmosphere into a 3D lattice with a coarse resolution, they cannot take into account the effects of clouds, which can both reduce or enhance warming.
Rather than trying to simulate the atmosphere as climate models do, Verdes has used statistics to assess man’s role in climate change.
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