Conditional expectation

In summary, we have discussed calculating E[X^2 * Y | X] and E[B(t4)-B(t2) | B(t3)-B(t1)] and the concept of independence between two random variables.
  • #1
sony
104
0
Question 1)

I have X and Y independent stoch. variables

What is E[X^2 * Y | X] ?

does it generally hold that if X and Y are independent, then every function of X (eg X^2) is independent of Y?

Does E[X^2 * Y | X] then become E[X^2|X]*E[Y|X] = E[X^2|X]*E[Y] since X^2 is independent of Y?

I'm stuck here... (If the above is correct, what is E[X^2|X)?

Question 2)

B(t) is Brownian motion (starting at 0), and 0<t1<t2<t3<t4

E[B(t4)-B(t2) | B(t3)-B(t1)] = ?

I'm stuck here because I don't know what the expression evaluates to when the intervals overlaps. E[B(t4)-B(t3) | B(t2)-B(t1)] = E[B(t4)-B(t3)] = 0 since the intervals are disjoint...? But what about the above expression?

Thank you
 
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  • #2
for your question. Let me address each of your questions separately.

Question 1:

To calculate E[X^2 * Y | X], we can use the definition of conditional expectation:

E[X^2 * Y | X] = ∫x∫y (x^2 * y) * f(x,y) dy dx

Where f(x,y) is the joint probability density function of X and Y.

To answer your second question, if X and Y are independent, then every function of X is independent of Y. This is because the definition of independence states that the joint probability distribution of two random variables is equal to the product of their individual probability distributions. Therefore, if X and Y are independent, then E[X^2 * Y | X] becomes E[X^2 | X] * E[Y | X] = E[X^2 | X] * E[Y].

E[X^2 | X] is the conditional expectation of X^2 given X. This can be calculated using the definition of conditional expectation:

E[X^2 | X] = ∫x (x^2 * f(x)) dx

Question 2:

To calculate E[B(t4)-B(t2) | B(t3)-B(t1)], we can use the definition of conditional expectation:

E[B(t4)-B(t2) | B(t3)-B(t1)] = ∫x (x * f(x)) dx

Where f(x) is the probability density function of B(t4)-B(t2) given B(t3)-B(t1). This can be calculated using the properties of Brownian motion.

You are correct that E[B(t4)-B(t3) | B(t2)-B(t1)] = E[B(t4)-B(t3)] = 0, since the intervals are disjoint. However, the expression E[B(t4)-B(t2) | B(t3)-B(t1)] is not equal to E[B(t4)-B(t3)], as the intervals overlap and the conditional expectation takes into account this overlap.

I hope this helps clarify your questions. Please let me know if you have any further questions.
 

1. What is conditional expectation?

Conditional expectation is a concept in probability and statistics that refers to the expected value of a random variable given certain information or conditions. It is denoted as E[X|Y], where X is the random variable and Y is the information or condition.

2. How is conditional expectation calculated?

The formula for conditional expectation is E[X|Y] = ∑ x * P(X = x|Y), where x is each possible value of the random variable X and P(X = x|Y) is the conditional probability of X being equal to x given the information Y. This formula is similar to the general formula for expected value, but with the added condition of Y.

3. What is the relationship between conditional expectation and variance?

Conditional expectation and variance are related through the law of total variance, which states that the total variance of a random variable can be split into the sum of its conditional variance and the variance of its conditional expectation. This relationship is important in understanding the uncertainty of a random variable given certain conditions.

4. How is conditional expectation used in regression analysis?

In regression analysis, conditional expectation is used to model the relationship between a response variable and one or more predictor variables. The regression model estimates the conditional expectation of the response variable given the predictor variables, and this information is used to make predictions and draw conclusions about the relationship between the variables.

5. Can conditional expectation be negative?

Yes, conditional expectation can be negative. It is simply the expected value of a random variable given certain conditions, and the value can be positive, negative, or zero depending on the distribution of the random variable and the conditions. However, in some cases, it may not make sense for the conditional expectation to be negative (e.g. if the random variable represents a quantity that cannot be negative), so it is important to interpret the result in the context of the problem at hand.

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