Gulf [1991] War vets risk paralyzing disease

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In summary, studies find that Gulf War troops are more likely to contract ALS than troops who stayed home. The numbers are statistically significant, and even if small errors in measurements are made, they should still result in a rejection of the Type II error.
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  • #2
With numbers so small (40 or so total cases), its tough to identify cause and effect or analyze statistical deviations. It may simply be (for example) that als is found sooner in military people because they are more physically active and get more physical exams than the rest of the population.
 
  • #3
The numbers actually aren't small at all. They say 40 of the 696,000 Gulf War troops now have ALS, compared to 67 of nearly 1.8 million who stayed home. The number of positive cases is small, yes, but the sample sizes themselves are very large.

We have pALS|Gulf War = 40/696,000 = .0000575, compared with pALS|Stayed Home = 67/1,800,000 = .0000372. The p-value for a double tailed hypothesis test with H0: pALS|Gulf War = pALS|Stayed Home and HA: pALS|Gulf War != pALS|Stayed Home is 0.02852-- in other words, if there is no real difference between the odds of Gulf War troops contracting ALS vs troops who stayed home, there is only a 2.852% chance that we would see the sample statistics that have been compiled. I haven't done a power test since the equation is long and nasty, but with sample sizes that big it's almost certainly a safe bet that we can rule out a Type II error as well as Type I. In other words, the numbers are statistically significant-- something strange went on in the Gulf War, making American troops who fought in it more susceptible to ALS than American troops who did not.
 
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  • #4
Originally posted by hypnagogue
The number of positive cases is small, yes, but the sample sizes themselves are very large.
Its the number of cases, not the sample size that matters because the comparison is of the rates themselves. If for example their number is off by 1 for some reason (maybe a false positive or by chance someone got hit by a truck before being diagnosed) that's a 2.5% change in the incidence rate. Thats huge.
 
  • #5
Any random factors affecting the number of ALS cases recorded in one group should theoretically apply equally well to the other, especially with such large sample sizes-- so they should more or less cancel out. Even if they don't, from the numbers posted it's clear that the number of ALS cases on either side could be off by a bit and still yield us statistically significant results. This is especially true since the quick statistical analysis above is based on a conservative double tailed test. If I had tested a one tailed alternative hypothesis (which is really what is in question here-- are the Gulf War troops more likely to contract ALS?) HA: pALS|Gulf War > pALS|Stayed Home, the results would be even more statistically significant and thus even more resistant to small errors in measurements.
 

1. What is Gulf War syndrome?

Gulf War syndrome is a term used to describe a cluster of symptoms experienced by veterans of the 1991 Gulf War. These symptoms can include fatigue, joint pain, memory problems, respiratory issues, and gastrointestinal problems.

2. What causes Gulf War syndrome?

The exact cause of Gulf War syndrome is still unknown. However, it is believed that a combination of factors such as exposure to environmental toxins, stress, and infectious agents may contribute to the development of the condition.

3. Can Gulf War syndrome lead to paralysis?

While there is no direct link between Gulf War syndrome and paralysis, some veterans have reported experiencing muscle weakness and loss of coordination which can lead to paralysis in severe cases. More research is needed to fully understand the potential long-term effects of Gulf War syndrome.

4. Are all Gulf War veterans at risk of developing this paralyzing disease?

No, not all Gulf War veterans will develop Gulf War syndrome or the associated paralyzing disease. The exact number of veterans affected is unknown, but it is estimated that around 30% of Gulf War veterans may have experienced some symptoms of Gulf War syndrome.

5. Is there a treatment for Gulf War syndrome?

There is currently no specific treatment for Gulf War syndrome. However, symptoms can be managed through various methods such as medication, therapy, and lifestyle changes. It is important for Gulf War veterans to seek medical help and support to manage their symptoms and improve their quality of life.

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