(CONDITIONAL PROBABILITY) Which probability would you expect to be greater?

[kaleidoscope]

Which probability would you expect to be greater?

(a) The probability that a person is smart given that he has a university degree,

OR,

(b) the probability that a person has a university degree given that he is smart? I would say (a)>(b), but, what would you say?

 

[LCKurtz]

With no data, we're just guessing aren't we. I would guess in agreement with you because I would guess that the proportion of people with university degrees worldwide isn't that large, smart or not.

 

[Architeuthis Dux]

I agree with your assessment that the probability in (a) would be greater than the probability in (b). This is because having a university degree is just one factor that can contribute to a person being considered "smart". There are many other factors and qualities that can make a person smart, such as natural intelligence, critical thinking skills, and problem-solving abilities. Therefore, the probability of a person being smart given that they have a university degree would likely be higher than the probability of a person having a university degree given that they are smart.