Optimizing Spin-and-Win: Expected Value and Impact on Owner with 1000 Customers

In summary, the new management of "Spin-and-Win" charges $1 per spin and the expected value for the player is (-) $0.25. This means that the owner will make a profit of 25 cents per customer on average, amounting to $250 in an average week of 1000 customers.
  • #1
Glen Maverick
14
0
Expected value: urgent help needed

Homework Statement



a1cb48cf8a3bcbef8c6b2657cc60cc3f.jpg

"Spin-and-Win" is under new management. The new management has created the spinner to the right and now charges $1 per spin. (The person spinning wins the amount pointed to by the spinner.)

a) What is the expected value for this game?

b) What does your answer in part 'a' mean for the owner/manager, if there are 1000
customers who play the game in a week?

Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution



I tried and produced two different solutions, and I don't know which one is right!

Trial 1:
a) expected value for the player
= 0.25*1/2 + 0.50*1/4 + 1*1/4 - 1
= (-) $0.50

b) for the owner, the expected value is (+) $0.50
so , assuming each customer plays once,
he will gain 1000*0.50
= $500/wk

Trial 2:

Customers expected winnings = (1/2)*$0.25 + (1/4)*$0.5 + (1/4)*$2 - $1 = - $0.25

This means the owner makes a profit of 25c per customer on average, so $250 in an average week of 1000 customers.
---------------------------------------------
Could you please check for me? I am so confused!
 
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  • #2


Glen Maverick said:
Trial 1:
a) expected value for the player
= 0.25*1/2 + 0.50*1/4 + 1*1/4 - 1
= (-) $0.50

Your (a) is wrong - you wrote 1*1/4 but it should be 2*1/4 .
 
  • #3


Thank you. I can see that trial 2 is correct.
 

What is expected value?

Expected value is a statistical concept that represents the average outcome of a random variable over a large number of trials. It is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome by its respective probability and summing these values.

Why is expected value important?

Expected value is important because it allows us to make informed decisions by quantifying the potential outcomes of a random event. It is used in various fields such as finance, economics, and probability to calculate risk, make predictions, and evaluate potential investments.

How is expected value calculated?

The formula for calculating expected value is: E(X) = Σ x * P(x), where x represents the possible outcomes and P(x) represents their respective probabilities. For example, if you toss a fair coin, the expected value of getting heads is (1/2) * $2 = $1, as there is a 50% chance of getting heads and the outcome is worth $2.

What are the limitations of expected value?

Expected value is based on assumptions and may not always accurately predict the actual outcome of a random event. It also does not account for extreme values or outliers, and can be influenced by small changes in probabilities. Additionally, it may not be applicable in situations where the outcomes are not independent.

How can expected value be used in decision-making?

Expected value can be used to compare different options and make decisions based on their potential outcomes. For example, a company can use expected value to evaluate the potential returns of different investment opportunities and choose the one with the highest expected value. It can also be used to assess the risks and potential gains of a decision.

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