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Stu21
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Personally I think the equation greatly overestimates the number of possible intelligent life in the universe... But then again all I have is a college level education.
Can anyone explain?
Can anyone explain?
Chronos said:The drake equation is a reasonable attempt to approximate the number of intelligent civilizations. Unfortunately, not all the variables are well defined, much less quantifiable.
Well, the star formation rate has some number, and the fraction of stars with planets has reasonable estimates (and lower bounds), too, with significant improvements expected in the next years. The number of habitable planets per planetary system is something which can be estimated with current telescopes, too.It doesn't propose an answer because we do not know the probabilities of any of those variables yet.
mfb said:The number of habitable planets per planetary system is something which can be estimated with current telescopes, too..
jackmell said:I do not believe we can do that.
Czcibor said:Actually, there were not so bad studies with microlensing on that. (Maybe still a bit crude, but not a pure guessing)
I'd agree that it is within reach of contemporary tech, and only matter of gathering enough observations.
From lack of contact with other civilization I'd assume that there is something too optimistic in Drake Equation. Or it's enough that we don't have good enough technology to contact other civilization. Or maybe we're simply one of the first within region.
How does that follow when you don't know what the values of the terms are - for all you know the Drake equation predicts that contact is extremely unlikely.From lack of contact with other civilization I'd assume that there is something too optimistic in Drake Equation.
http://exoplanet.eu/catalog/?f="microlensing"+IN+detectionDrakkith said:The detection of habitable planets that are Earth sized cannot currently happen unless their orbital plane is nearly parallel to our line of sight, which allows us to use radial velocity measurements or transit observations to detect them. And even these methods are barely capable of detecting an Earth sized planet, let alone find out if it's habitable or not. So it isn't a matter of gathering enough observations, as we can't even do the observations to begin with yet.
Czcibor said:http://exoplanet.eu/catalog/?f="microlensing"+IN+detection
On the above attached list of planet detected by microlensing there are already superEarth's. Is your point that with contemporary technology only superEarth's are possible to be detected, but exactly a bit lower that the method simply fails?
Knowing mass is possible to rule out gas giants and tiny planets. Knowing orbit and luminosity of the host star is possible to calculate whether the planet is within HZ. That's enough to roughly asses whether the planet is potentially habitable. (yes, I know a few of such "habitable" would be a nasty)
I also don't get here the argument concerning that planet orbit should be coplanar for purpose of statistical analysis. Knowing which is probability of finding a coplanar system you can extrapolate that to know how many systems are omitted because of different configuration and how many indeed lack planets within their HZ.
Well, I understand the factor as "planets in the habitable zone" - and include other factors in the next fraction (probability that life evolves).(To be fair, currently no method does, only potential habitability can be assessed)
The Drake Equation is a mathematical formula used to estimate the number of active, communicative extraterrestrial civilizations in our galaxy. It takes into account factors such as the number of habitable planets, the likelihood of life arising on those planets, and the ability of those civilizations to communicate with us.
The Drake Equation was developed by astronomer Frank Drake in 1961. It was created as a way to stimulate scientific dialogue on the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI) and has since become a popular tool for estimating the potential number of intelligent civilizations in our galaxy.
The Drake Equation is not intended to provide a definitive answer on the existence of extraterrestrial life. It is a thought experiment that helps scientists consider the various factors that could contribute to the likelihood of intelligent life in our galaxy. As our understanding of these factors evolves, so too does the accuracy of the equation.
One of the main limitations of the Drake Equation is that it relies on a number of assumptions and estimates. For example, we do not yet have enough data to accurately determine the number of habitable planets in our galaxy. Additionally, the equation does not take into account potential barriers to interstellar communication, such as the distance between civilizations or the lifespan of said civilizations.
The Drake Equation serves as a framework for understanding the factors that may contribute to the existence of intelligent life in our galaxy. It also encourages scientific inquiry and discussion on the topic of extraterrestrial life. By considering the various variables in the equation, scientists can continue to refine their understanding of the potential for life beyond Earth.