Francois Hollande wins French presidency

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In summary: It may do but things like this could be a great stimulus. I read an article somewhere recently (I'll try to dig it up later) somewhat related to this that explored the differences in American and German productivity. On paper the US would seem to be the bigger player: longer working weeks, less holiday, higher retirement etc but in actual fact it loses out to Germany. Moral of the story is that productivity is more than just how long people work. Give people more time to enjoy themselves and relax and apart from your HDI going up...nothing else really changes.
  • #1
Ryan_m_b
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The results are in, Francois Hollande is now the president of France. I'll be interested to see how the new socialist government progresses over the next few years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17975660
Mr Hollande - who got an estimated 52% of votes in Sunday's run-off - said the French had chosen "change".

Analysts say the vote has wide implications for the whole eurozone. Mr Hollande has vowed to rework a deal on government debt in member countries.

He said was "proud to have been capable of giving people hope again".

He said he would push ahead with his pledge to refocus EU fiscal efforts from austerity to "growth".

"Europe is watching us, austerity can no longer be the only option," he said.

Mr Hollande has called for a renegotiation of a hard-won European treaty on budget discipline championed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Mr Sarkozy.
 
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  • #2
Me too. H ran on an anti-austerity plan, I think. I'm not too sure about the wisdom and/or justice about austerity measures.
 
  • #3
robertjford80 said:
Me too. H ran on an anti-austerity plan, I think. I'm not too sure about the wisdom and/or justice about austerity measures.
Indeed. The implications are interesting for the rest of Europe given widespread use of austerity plans to the point of them being key in negotiated loan agreements between countries, particularly with Greece (which is also having elections at the moment).
 
  • #4
I'd also like to know to what extent S's support of the Libyan uprising had to do with his defeat. I did support the arming of the Libyan rebels even though I'm a pacifist (sort of) and a member of the Green Party, but I'm not sure his support of the uprising played out too well among the voters.
 
  • #5
robertjford80 said:
I'd also like to know to what extent S's support of the Libyan uprising had to do with his defeat. I did support the arming of the Libyan rebels even though I'm a pacifist (sort of) and a member of the Green Party, but I'm not sure his support of the uprising played out too well among the voters.
Admittedly it is hard to get a proper impression of the feelings prevalent in a voting population from afar but I didn't get a feeling that Libya played that much of a decision in this election. The main gist of Hollande's win and Sarkozy's loss is that Sarkozy hasn't delivered much in his time, seems out of touch with the common man and focused on austerity and immigration. Conversely Hollande focussed on growth, unemployment and maintaining traditional French cultural attitudes towards work such as early retirement ages and shorter working weeks.
 
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  • #6
Ryan_m_b said:
I get a feeling that Libya played that much of a decision in this election.

Did you forget to put the word "didn't" in your sentence? If so, don't worry, I make that mistake a lot.
 
  • #7
robertjford80 said:
Did you forget to put the word "didn't" in your sentence? If so, don't worry, I make that mistake a lot.
Lol quite. Fixed now.
 
  • #9
After reading "He wants to raise the minimum wage, hire 60,000 more teachers and lower the retirement age from 62 to 60 for some workers.", I feel like this guy is going to destroy France.
 
  • #10
rootX said:
I feel like this guy is going to destroy France.

The problem of how to get out of a bad economic situation has a lot of uncertainty. Austerity has its own risks that are seemingly never mentioned. Likewise, stimulus spending has a risks too.

One could say stimulus worked out better for the US then Austerity did for Europe. Of course, America might go off a cliff in a few more months. The election will decide if we will get a dose of Austerity or not.
 
  • #11
rootX said:
After reading "He wants to raise the minimum wage, hire 60,000 more teachers and lower the retirement age from 62 to 60 for some workers.", I feel like this guy is going to destroy France.
It may do but things like this could be a great stimulus. I read an article somewhere recently (I'll try to dig it up later) somewhat related to this that explored the differences in American and German productivity. On paper the US would seem to be the bigger player: longer working weeks, less holiday, higher retirement etc but in actual fact it loses out to Germany. Moral of the story is that productivity is more than just how long people work. Give people more time to enjoy themselves and relax and apart from your HDI going up you'll get people spending in their free time, feeling less run down and healthier when at work etc.
 
  • #12
rootX said:
I feel like this guy is going to destroy France.

France is more of a philosophical concept than a country, so it's impossible to destroy it. From my own experience there is more than a grain of truth in the joke about the typical French response to any new idea: "That might work in practice, but it's no good in theory".

Hollande's first big philosophical dilemma will be whether to support Greece or Germany over the Greek economic situation, not tinkering with the retirement age for school teachers or whatever. May he live in interesting times...
 
  • #13
I do not think just Greece will bring down the European union or the euro.
Greece is too small for that and banks will have written off those debts - that's their specialty.

A much bigger issue IMO is that other countries like France might follow Greece.
France and other European countries really have to take steps to make sure their economies start growing again.
Investing in education should help.
 
  • #14
I like Serena said:
I do not think just Greece will bring down the European union or the euro.
Greece is too small for that and banks will have written off those debts - that's their specialty.

A much bigger issue IMO is that other countries like France might follow Greece.
France and other European countries really have to take steps to make sure their economies start growing again.
Investing in education should help.

Re bolded text: yes that's true, but there's a significant lag between the time you make the investment and when it pays off. I'm not sure the economy will wait that long.
 
  • #15
lisab said:
Re bolded text: yes that's true, but there's a significant lag between the time you make the investment and when it pays off. I'm not sure the economy will wait that long.

IMO the time lag should be about 10 years.
France won't follow Greece in the next year, but it may in say 10 years time.
The time to invest in the future is now.
Pay-off may even be sooner in terms of the morale of young people.
They need something to look forward to.
Politically it is a daring move, since it takes so long to pay off.
 
  • #16
I like Serena said:
Investing in education should help.
Whilst I am always in favour of further investments to education I don't see why this would help in this situation. There is far from a lack of education in countries like France, what there is a lack of is jobs for educated people to fill! A disproportionate number of the unemployed are under the age of 25 and large numbers of them are university graduates.

The problem is unemployment that can be countered with new employment regulations and economic growth.
 
  • #17
France cannot compete with China or eastern Europe in terms of production through low paying jobs.
Its added value is in jobs and industry that require a high education.
Austerity has cut down on education and with a certain time lag France will have to pay the price for that.

What kind of new employment regulations are you thinking of?
And how do you propose France achieves economic growth?
 
  • #18
I like Serena said:
France cannot compete with China or eastern Europe in terms of production through low paying jobs.
If you mean manufacturing then yes I partially agree though there are various policies in France that protect against this (i.e. for public sector contracts there is a clause for taking into account societal well being so if there is a choice between saving money and placing a big order with a Chinese company and not saving money and placing it with the French one they have to go with the latter) and other European countries like Germany have a thriving manufacturing sector.
I like Serena said:
Its added value is in jobs and industry that require a high education.
Yes I agree education is important and adds value to the workforce.
I like Serena said:
What kind of new employment regulations are you thinking of?
Off the top of my head things like that listed above and maximum/encouraged work hour regulations (to spread jobs amongst multiple people).
I like Serena said:
And how do you propose France achieves economic growth?
I haven't got a proposition. France is in a typical situation of having parties arguing for austerity and those arguing for stimulus. Both are a gamble but the latter is easier to sell to a voting public IMO.
 
  • #19
Protection of internal manufacturing business is an artificial measure.
I do not believe in artificial measures.
People tend to find ways around that and in the end it's the government (indirectly) paying for it.
I believe France should invest in business in which they can compete internationally.
It should outsource low-tech manufacturing to countries better suited to it.
That's much healthier and pays off better.
 
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  • #20
I like Serena said:
France cannot compete with China or eastern Europe in terms of production through low paying jobs.
Its added value is in jobs and industry that require a high education.
Austerity has cut down on education and with a certain time lag France will have to pay the price for that.

What kind of new employment regulations are you thinking of?
And how do you propose France achieves economic growth?
Pass (enforce?) the obviously needed First Employment Contract, i.e. change the employment laws that make it nearly impossible to fire in France, and hence equally difficult to hire.

In a ranking of economic freedom, France lands at 67 behind Kazakhstan and Bulgaria, due in large part to French labor laws.
 
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  • #21
SixNein said:
...Austerity has its own risks that are seemingly never mentioned. ...
Seemingly never, or seemingly always?
 
  • #22
Ryan_m_b said:
It may do but things like this could be a great stimulus. I read an article somewhere recently (I'll try to dig it up later) somewhat related to this that explored the differences in American and German productivity. On paper the US would seem to be the bigger player: longer working weeks, less holiday, higher retirement etc but in actual fact it loses out to Germany. Moral of the story is that productivity is more than just how long people work. Give people more time to enjoy themselves and relax and apart from your HDI going up you'll get people spending in their free time, feeling less run down and healthier when at work etc.

Productivity using these ways won't occur in the short run IMO.

I am concerned that "raising minimum wage", "taxing rich people 75%", "lowering retiring age" will burden not help the economy for now. I believe people voted him for all his crazy proposals which seem unrealistic to me. He is trying to give everyone a free lunch.

Does he even have any experience?
 
  • #23
rootX said:
I believe people voted him for all his crazy proposals which seem unrealistic to me. He is trying to give everyone a free lunch.

I think they were more likely voting against Sarkozy, who hasn't actually achieved much despite his continuous hyperactivity.

Does he even have any experience?

He was an economic advisor to Mitterand back in the 1980s. He's never held a government office, but he's not a new kid on the block by any means.
 
  • #24
Arguably, the biggest thing that will effect his presidency is who controls the National Assembly. I think we tend to forget the President is only one person and can do very little by themselves. I wouldn't want to second guess anything he will do until after the 17th of June.
 
  • #25
mheslep said:
Seemingly never, or seemingly always?

This would be way more convincing if starting with the fifth article we weren't seeing articles about how austerity is good and stopping austerity is a bad thing
 
  • #26
Office_Shredder said:
This would be way more convincing if starting with the fifth article we weren't seeing articles about how austerity is good and stopping austerity is a bad thing
Convincing of what? My point is that the criticism of austerity is found anywhere one looks. One can not get away from it, especially from parties claimed to be undergoing austerity*. It is a bit curious to suggest such criticism is "seemingly never mentioned".

BTW, as far as I can tell there is little *spending* side austerity, i.e. cuts. Certainly not in France where spending is still increasing.
http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/econom...re-in-us-dollars-2012-3_govxp-table-2012-3-en
 
  • #27
rootX said:
Productivity using these ways won't occur in the short run IMO.

I am concerned that "raising minimum wage", "taxing rich people 75%", "lowering retiring age" will burden not help the economy for now. I believe people voted him for all his crazy proposals which seem unrealistic to me. He is trying to give everyone a free lunch.

Does he even have any experience?

Raising minimum wage allows for the creation of demand, which is one of the main thing stifling the French economy. If a demand existed for products, these products would be created, and the creation of these products would require greater employment.

Taxing rich people at 75% is actually well known to work. In America, our period of highest economic output and security was during the 50s and 60s, where top tax rates hovered between 91% and something around 75% (I cannot recall the exact figure). Essentially, income was soft-capped at a modern, inflation-adjusted level of thirty-one million during the fifties, whereby it became too inefficient to pay someone more than that amount (and likely far lower than that amount). The hoarding of wealth is like a vampire, sucking the blood out of the economy. The dispersal of wealth, as this tax scheme would allow, is the only thing to stimulate an economy that is so based on inequality as France's.

Lowering retirement age allows for younger workers to take jobs previously occupied by seniors. Pretty simple really.

Europe moved rightward for the past three decades, and we see how it all played out. Time to go back to social democratic economics. Hollande's victory is just the first step towards that inevitable shift.
 
  • #28
rootX said:
"taxing rich people 75%"

That actually sounds far worse than it is in reality. I don't know what the upper limit is but say it is one million euros. If somebody was to earn one million and one euros, only the one euro would be taxed at 75% for example.
 

1. How did Francois Hollande win the French presidency?

Francois Hollande won the French presidency by gaining more than 51% of the popular vote in the second round of the presidential election. He campaigned on a platform of economic and social reform, promising to create more jobs and reduce the national debt.

2. What political party does Francois Hollande belong to?

Francois Hollande is a member of the Socialist Party, a center-left political party in France.

3. What are some of Francois Hollande's key policies?

Francois Hollande's key policies include increasing taxes on the wealthy, creating 60,000 teaching jobs, lowering the retirement age to 60, and legalizing same-sex marriage.

4. How does Francois Hollande's victory affect the European Union?

As a member of the European Union, Francois Hollande's victory has implications for the EU. He has called for a more balanced approach to austerity measures and has proposed a renegotiation of the EU's fiscal pact.

5. What challenges does Francois Hollande face as the new French president?

Francois Hollande faces challenges such as high unemployment, a struggling economy, and a growing budget deficit. He will also have to navigate the complex relationships between France and other countries, including the United States and other European Union members.

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