Prob something occurs given something else occurs

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In summary, the conversation discussed the contents of 3 boxes, with different numbers of black and red balls in each. The question was posed of what the probability is of selecting a red ball from the first box, given that a red ball was selected from the second box. A tree diagram was mentioned as a possible method to solve the problem. The conversation also touched on finding the probability of a phone call taking less than 7 minutes, given the mean and standard deviation of the call durations of two products. The use of conditional probability and the importance of identifying different events and their intersections was also mentioned.
  • #1
Maybe_Memorie
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So suppose we have 3 boxes, A,B,C. Black and Red balls in each.
In A, 3R and 7B.
B, 6R and 4B
C, 8R and 2B

First you take a ball from A. If its R, take one from B. If its B, take one from C.

Given the second is R, what is the prob the first is R?

So I have a tree diagram, but I'm quite unsure about what to do


Also, let's say we have the length of time of telephone calls associated with 2 products.
Mean and standard deviation given.
If you want to find the prob that a random call will take less than 7 minutes, are you supposed to add the mean and SDs together? then proceed as usual?
 
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  • #2
Here's a link to the wikipedia page on conditional probabilityhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability#Definition

Have you identified (the probabilities of) the different events and their intersection?
 

1. How do you calculate the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred?

The probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred can be calculated using the formula P(A|B) = P(A∩B)/P(B), where P(A) represents the probability of event A, P(B) represents the probability of event B, and P(A∩B) represents the probability of both events occurring together.

2. What is the difference between conditional probability and joint probability?

Conditional probability is the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. Joint probability is the likelihood of two or more events occurring together. While conditional probability takes into account that one event has already occurred, joint probability does not.

3. How can conditional probability be used in real life situations?

Conditional probability has many practical applications, such as predicting the likelihood of a disease given a positive test result, determining the chances of winning a game with certain moves, or estimating the probability of a stock price increase based on market conditions.

4. What is Bayes' Theorem and how is it related to conditional probability?

Bayes' Theorem is a mathematical formula that calculates the probability of an event based on prior knowledge or information. It is related to conditional probability because it uses the prior probability of an event occurring along with new information to calculate the updated probability of that event.

5. Can conditional probability be used to determine cause and effect relationships?

No, conditional probability cannot be used to determine cause and effect relationships. It only shows the likelihood of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred, but it does not prove that one event caused the other.

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