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Is civil war in Iraq inevitable?

by Ivan Seeking
Tags: civil, inevitable, iraq
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Astronuc
#73
Aug3-06, 03:54 PM
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I'd say things in Iraq have almost reached the point where you can truly say civil war in Iraq is inevitable.
I think some (including myself) would say, that civil war has been occurring in Iraq for some time.
turbo
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Aug3-06, 04:50 PM
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Quote Quote by Astronuc
I think some (including myself) would say, that civil war has been occurring in Iraq for some time.
Yes, I join you in that estimation. The Interior Ministry thugs have been killing Sunnis pretty routinely, and when the Sunnis retaliate, they are characterised as "insurgents", "terrorists" and worse.
Schrodinger's Dog
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Aug3-06, 06:22 PM
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Yah ok some light relief and some prescient coverage, in no particular order, but hey let's lighten up Strangely I couldn't find the Iraqis preparing for peace by stockpiling weapons story, but they were strangely presciently right

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/27948

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/29893

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/27963

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/30570

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28954

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/34144

http://www.theonion.com/content/node/28151

And my personal favourite:-

God Angrily Clarifies 'Don't Kill' Rule

September 26, 2001 | Issue 37•34

NEW YORK—Responding to recent events on Earth, God, the omniscient creator-deity worshipped by billions of followers of various faiths for more than 6,000 years, angrily clarified His longtime stance against humans killing each other Monday.

god

God.

"Look, I don't know, maybe I haven't made myself completely clear, so for the record, here it is again," said the Lord, His divine face betraying visible emotion during a press conference near the site of the fallen Twin Towers. "Somehow, people keep coming up with the idea that I want them to kill their neighbor. Well, I don't. And to be honest, I'm really getting sick and tired of it. Get it straight. Not only do I not want anybody to kill anyone, but I specifically commanded you not to, in really simple terms that anybody ought to be able to understand."

Worshipped by Christians, Jews, and Muslims alike, God said His name has been invoked countless times over the centuries as a reason to kill in what He called "an unending cycle of violence."

"I don't care how holy somebody claims to be," God said. "If a person tells you it's My will that they kill someone, they're wrong. Got it? I don't care what religion you are, or who you think your enemy is, here it is one more time: No killing, in My name or anyone else's, ever again."

The press conference came as a surprise to humankind, as God rarely intervenes in earthly affairs. As a matter of longstanding policy, He has traditionally left the task of interpreting His message and divine will to clerics, rabbis, priests, imams, and Biblical scholars. Theologians and laymen alike have been given the task of pondering His ineffable mysteries, deciding for themselves what to do as a matter of faith. His decision to manifest on the material plane was motivated by the deep sense of shock, outrage, and sorrow He felt over the Sept. 11 violence carried out in His name, and over its dire potential ramifications around the globe.

Attack On America Icon

"I tried to put it in the simplest possible terms for you people, so you'd get it straight, because I thought it was pretty important," said God, called Yahweh and Allah respectively in the Judaic and Muslim traditions. "I guess I figured I'd left no real room for confusion after putting it in a four-word sentence with one-syllable words, on the tablets I gave to Moses. How much more clear can I get?"

"But somehow, it all gets twisted around and, next thing you know, somebody's spouting off some nonsense about, 'God says I have to kill this guy, God wants me to kill that guy, it's God's will,'" God continued. "It's not God's will, all right? News flash: 'God's will' equals 'Don't murder people.'"

Worse yet, many of the worst violators claim that their actions are justified by passages in the Bible, Torah, and Qur'an.

"To be honest, there's some contradictory stuff in there, okay?" God said. "So I can see how it could be pretty misleading. I admit it—My bad. I did My best to inspire them, but a lot of imperfect human agents have misinterpreted My message over the millennia. Frankly, much of the material that got in there is dogmatic, doctrinal bull****. I turn My head for a second and, suddenly, all this stuff about homosexuality gets into Leviticus, and everybody thinks it's God's will to kill gays. It absolutely drives Me up the wall."

God praised the overwhelming majority of His Muslim followers as "wonderful, pious people," calling the perpetrators of the Sept. 11 attacks rare exceptions.

"This whole medieval concept of the jihad, or holy war, had all but vanished from the Muslim world in, like, the 10th century, and with good reason," God said. "There's no such thing as a holy war, only unholy ones. The vast majority of Muslims in this world reject the murderous actions of these radical extremists, just like the vast majority of Christians in America are pissed off over those two bigots on The 700 Club."

Continued God, "Read the book: 'Allah is kind, Allah is beautiful, Allah is merciful.' It goes on and on that way, page after page. But, no, some *******s have to come along and revive this stupid holy-war crap just to further their own hateful agenda. So now, everybody thinks Muslims are all murderous barbarians. Thanks, Taliban: 1,000 years of pan-Islamic cultural progress down the drain."

God stressed that His remarks were not directed exclusively at Islamic extremists, but rather at anyone whose ideological zealotry overrides his or her ability to comprehend the core message of all world religions.

"I don't care what faith you are, everybody's been making this same mistake since the dawn of time," God said. "The Muslims massacre the Hindus, the Hindus massacre the Muslims. The Buddhists, everybody massacres the Buddhists. The Jews, don't even get me started on the hardline, right-wing, Meir Kahane-loving Israeli nationalists, man. And the Christians? You people believe in a Messiah who says, 'Turn the other cheek,' but you've been killing everybody you can get your hands on since the Crusades."

Growing increasingly wrathful, God continued: "Can't you people see? What are you, morons? There are a ton of different religious traditions out there, and different cultures worship Me in different ways. But the basic message is always the same: Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Buddhism, Shintoism... every religious belief system under the sun, they all say you're supposed to love your neighbors, folks! It's not that hard a concept to grasp."

"Why would you think I'd want anything else? Humans don't need religion or God as an excuse to kill each other—you've been doing that without any help from Me since you were freaking apes!" God said. "The whole point of believing in God is to have a higher standard of behavior. How obvious can you get?"

"I'm talking to all of you, here!" continued God, His voice rising to a shout. "Do you hear Me? I don't want you to kill anybody. I'm against it, across the board. How many times do I have to say it? Don't kill each other anymore—ever! I'm ****ing serious!"

Upon completing His outburst, God fell silent, standing quietly at the podium for several moments. Then, witnesses reported, God's shoulders began to shake, and He wept.
ah c'mon everyone needs a laugh once in a while
pcorbett
#76
Aug4-06, 02:10 AM
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Sure. For the pussy crap that passes as civil war these days, why not?
Office_Shredder
#77
Aug6-06, 05:37 AM
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Quote Quote by pcorbett
Sure. For the pussy crap that passes as civil war these days, why not?
I always wonder about that. What, 600 Lebanese have died in the past month? Seriously, back in the day, 600 casualties would be a good DAY! Sheesh



They don't make wars like they used to
Schrodinger's Dog
#78
Aug6-06, 06:00 AM
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Quote Quote by jiriya
hi there , i am a new member and a proud muslim,
Welcome to PF, nice to have a mulsim perspective. I'm from the UK by the way, to put some perspective on what I say next.

as i can see , there are alot of people on this forum that think Islam is based upon bombs and terrorism and I don't blame them because thats what they get brainwashed to believe on the media.
But let me just be clear here - the media is all false and rubbis- - It is all based upon the ''strings'' of the USA and Israel-
Most people here on this forum are actually a little better educated than that and know that it is both forbidden to kill innocents and to commit suicide in the Quran.

and just to clear some MAJOR misconceptions about Islam , let me state the following:
- 1)Islam forbids terrorism- in the Quran =- there is a verse that clearly states that :- who so ever kills someone - gets the same scale of sin as if he/she has killed ALL MANKIND
It's not those who follow their religion strictly we worry about it's the minority who corrupt it to suit a political agenda(fundementalists) Sadly they have the most power and loudest voices, we don't believe that for example Osamah Bin Laden is a Muslim any more than I personally believe Bush is a Christian(their both incredibly poor examples of their faith) I know full well that in the Quran, Jihad means to struggle not holy war, in fact war is a last resort of Jihad only after everything else has failed, be nice if the US adhered to that principle as well as the fundementalists but hey nm, we have a hundred and one reasons not to go to war from our bible, but religion in the US is both a convenience and an inconvenience to the president, he uses his suposed religous foundation to rally support, but ironically is not in any way following his beliefs, it would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.

-2) Palestine and Iraq people have all the right to kill American troops because the USA and Israel are invadiong their land under inllegal occupation- so its atural for them to defend their land!
I quite agree. However the US is not at war with the Iraqi people believe it or not, it is caught between Sunni and Shei'ite factions though. With only the Khurds with any love for the US. When England controlled Iraq, the Sunnis and Shei'ites united together to rid themselves of this colonial rule, when England left they fell to fighting amongst each other for power, Saddam if he did nothing else secured peace and a secular rule;so why we didn't expect this to happen again is beyond me, in fact most did expect this to happen but the planning for the smooth transition and the winning the hearts and minds of people was apallingly badly executed, most have gone as far as saying incompetent. Also it has come to light that some Soldiers most notably a UK Dr and SAS seargeant have refused to return to Iraq because they claim the war is illegal, The SAS soldier also saw widespread as he put it Untermensch(sub-human or under man) philosophy amongst the Americans who he stated had no real idea about the culture or respect for the Iraqi people(again a result of poor training and planning)

Addressing the why are they still there issue, Americans don't know when to quit maybe? I say they pull out and leave the country to it, but it wont happen, they probably still think they can salvage something out of this.

and the americans are killing civilians,,raping women, torturng people all just for no reason
Attrocities happen in war, I wont be trite enough to say s**t happens though in war like some people do, needles to say the rapists are being tried and will no doubt spend the rest of their lives or a significant part of it in a military prison(not sure, Court martials win around 98% of the time though, they are not like civil courts, they tend only to bring to trial crimes they know they can win) Its not quite sharia law but it's not exactly going to go lightly for them either. Same goes for the Marines who massacred villagers in Haditha(I think it was) They'll be strictly punished if it is found that they behaved badly. As for torture, we could start a whole new thread on that, suffice to say there is international pressure on the US to follow strictly the Geneva convention, it is not clear whether they are though, so I can't comment further.

- because if they TRULY went in to remove SADDAM HUSSEIN- then why are they still in there even though they have captured him ages ago since the 2003 led invasion of Iraq?
- and if anyone just thinks LOGIACLLY - you would realise that the USA and Britain are in there for the same sole purpose - yes you gussed it -- OIL!!!
- Iraq has the 2nd/3rd biggest oil reserves in the world!
- 17/80 Oil reserves are currently used and ONE of them is ten times bigger and wealthier then North Britains OIL reserves!
This is part of it and I dont say a small part either(you need to understand capatilist mentallity it is greedy and selfish, and the Republicans hold economics up as a false idol - akin to the golden calf - almost it's not a perfect analogy but it's the best I can think of, which is ironic as the US is labouring under a 3 trillion dollar debt due in no small part to it's war mongering) It's just so widely accepted that no one mentions it any more. The same reason the British were there 50 years ago. I'm not sure if it's any comfort but should the US&UK sell all of the fuel reserves left in Iraq it is estimated it will not cover the cost of the campaign, if you include human lives it never would.


- if anyone has any questions about Islam - please just email me -
No I'm good, peace be with you
Astronuc
#79
Aug6-06, 06:49 AM
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Quote Quote by Schrodinger's Dog
It's not those who follow their religion strictly we worry about it's the minority who corrupt it to suit a political agenda(fundementalists) Sadly they have the most power and loudest voices, we don't believe that for example Osamah Bin Laden is a Muslim any more than I personally believe Bush is a Christian(their both incredibly poor examples of their faith) I know full well that in the Quran, Jihad means to struggle not holy war, in fact war is a last resort of Jihad only after everything else has failed, be nice if the US adhered to that principle as well as the fundementalists but hey nm, we have a hundred and one reasons not to go to war from our bible, but religion in the US is both a convenience and an inconvenience to the president, he uses his suposed religous foundation to rally support, but ironically is not in any way following his beliefs, it would be funny if it wasn't so tragic.
The term "Fundamentalists" seems to be a misnomer IMO, which is used to refer to those who have some simplistic and literal interpretation (or more accurately, MIS-interpration) of a religious text. As for Bush's beliefs, I am left wondering what he actually does believe. His actions speak louder than words, and he appears to me to worship power and materialism. I cannot consider him Christian, since his behavior is contrary to Christian principles.

As SD mentioned, it was expected that the Suni and Shi'ia would be in conflict without a strong central authority, and that is one of the major failures of the US policy. There was no effective planning for post-Saddam Iraq. Incompetent would be putting it mildly.
pcorbett
#80
Aug6-06, 07:30 AM
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Quote Quote by turbo-1
This is something that lots of people overlook. If we "regionalized" Iraq and allowed each faction local control with a central government, Turkey would probably start attacking the Kurdish state, Iran would side with the Shiites and lay into the Sunnis, and perhaps prompt Syria to throw in with the Sunnis...it's going to be pure hell no matter how we try to disengage. President Cheney and his little Bush yes-man have sold us out and have destined the Iraqis to civil war. There is no war as destructive or as hard to recover from as a civil war, as any US citizen should know, if they bother to study history.
First thing. What interest does Syria have in supporting Sunni independence in Iraq.

Second, you might notice that the bulk of the Shi'a insurgency is al-Sadr's Mahdi Army--a force which pales in comparison with SCIRI and even al Dawa's Shahid al Sadr. Both parties have embraced the political process. That leaves three former regime groups with over a thousand fighters--Fedayeen Saddam, Jaish Muhammad and Islamic Response--the greatest threats to Iraqi internal security.
Astronuc
#81
Aug11-06, 08:19 AM
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Lebanon and Shiite Movements
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=5633492

Fresh Air from WHYY, August 10, 2006 · Augustus Richard Norton is a professor of international relations and anthropology at Boston University and has been writing about Lebanon for 25 years. He is an expert on the Shiite political movements, including Hezbollah. A member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Norton's books include Amal and the Shi'a: Struggle for the Soul of Lebanon and Civil Society in the Middle East.
Norton makes the comment that the situation in Iraq IS Civil War.
tarbag
#82
Aug11-06, 10:30 AM
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Quote Quote by Schrodinger's Dog
ll all of the fuel reserves left in Iraq it is estimated it will not cover the cost of the campaign, if you include human lives it never would.

:
try to say the truth at least here. If the Americans came to Iraq for the democracy, it was preferable to start with Saudi Arabia. The Americans came to Iraq neither for oil neither for the democracy nor for their proper interest, they came just to make like Israil. The Americans can pump the oil of the East as they want even at the time of Saddam.

With this war American did much enemy starting from their clean friends. They declared the war against everyone like Hitler. And I think that all the Moslems hate the Americans deeply even the Emirs of Saudi Arabia, and this feeling will grow with time. You can imagine the remainder when the Moslem people become free to choose their presidents.

The world will never forget the photographs of the prison "Abou-Gharib".
Schrodinger's Dog
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Aug13-06, 12:17 PM
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I agree, but I'm hoping that the US governemnt will change in a few years, and there will be moderation in the ME, if not I fear your prognosis may well be right. The US government aren't exactly making friends in Europe let alone the ME or as far as I can tell in Asia, they seem determined to be in a them and us situation on this issue, with them being the tiny minority as far as world opinion goes, this is not healthy, and it's not smart either.

I have heard many people say why should we care what the rest of the world thinks? This is a truly blinkered question, and is devoid of the way world politics works, fortunately it's rarely bandied around here, so I judge this place as at least slightly better informed or very liberal biased one of the two Anyway when was the last time you could accuse the US government of acting smart? Listening to Bushes speaches they can't even talk smart. I mean defending our freedom, fighting terror, assuring peace, how dumb do you have to be to get how broad and airy these vague assertions are, and how little they actually mean? Anyway I've wondered OT in my rambellings and there's a thread about that defending freedom guff already.
Astronuc
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Aug23-06, 07:06 AM
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Iraq Violence Grows Despite U.S. Security Plan
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=5688641
Morning Edition, August 22, 2006 · The rising death toll and number of insurgent attacks in Iraq has forced the U.S. to add troops in Baghdad to try and reverse the trend in the country's capital. The U.S. plans to eventually turn over security responsibility to Iraqis.

Steve Inskeep speaks to Gen. George Casey, the commanding general of the multinational force in Iraq.

Casey says that Baghdad has become safer since the U.S. deployed additional forces to the capital earlier this summer.

"But we have a long way to go…. We actually have seen a positive trend over the last five weeks here. [It's] too early to say that this is going to last, but the operations that we have been doing have had a positive impact.

. . . .
Journalist Says Iraq Security Outlook is Bleak
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=5688644
Morning Edition, August 22, 2006 · One observer of the security situation in Iraq says that the U.S. response to Iraq's growing violence is failing to quell the trouble.

Steve Inskeep talks to Time Magazine's Bobby Ghosh in Baghdad about General Casey's view of the conflict in Iraq.
I heard a comment yesterday that most experts (including many retired generals) in the matter see that Iraq is in the midst of a civil war.
Astronuc
#85
Aug25-06, 09:44 PM
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Well, at last, Rumsfeld says something with which I can agree! Will wonders never cease?! Then again he states the exceedingly obvious.

Rumsfeld: Iraq must reconcile sects
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060825/..._st_pe/us_iraq

WASHINGTON - The presence of several thousand extra U.S. troops in Baghdad in recent weeks showed that sectarian violence can be quelled by force of arms. But Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld said the gains will be lost unless the Iraqi government reconciles rival religious sects.

"There ... is no question but that you can go in and clear out an area and achieve a reduction in violence, and the test is not that," Rumsfeld told reporters in a joint appearance Friday at the Pentagon with Iraqi Deputy President Adil Al-Mahdi.

"The test is what happens thereafter. And the important thing is for the Iraqi government to achieve success with respect to its reconciliation process," he said. "It's important that they deal with the militia issue."
Skyhunter
#86
Aug26-06, 07:52 AM
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Quote Quote by Astronuc
Well, at last, Rumsfeld says something with which I can agree! Will wonders never cease?! Then again he states the exceedingly obvious.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060825/..._st_pe/us_iraq
Would have been nice had it been obvious to him in 2002/2003 when he was deciding on troop levels for the invasion/occupation.

I heard an interesting analogy by Jonathan Schell on C-SPAN about "regime change."

And I paraphrase:

If I intend to change my clothes, I would naturally have another set of clothes to wear, before I took off the ones I was wearing.

It is a great interview and live callin.

http://www.c-span.org/videoarchives....rchiveDays=100
Astronuc
#87
Sep2-06, 07:03 AM
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The Pentagon finally concedes the risk of Civil War - despite the fact that Iraq has been embroiled in Civil War for months.

Pentagon Report: Iraq Is at Risk of Civil War
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=5751612

All Things Considered, September 1, 2006 · The Pentagon acknowledges what already has been expressed by U.S. military commanders and others recently: Sectarian violence in Iraq is spreading beyond Baghdad. In its quarterly report, the Pentagon report showed Iraqi deaths have risen by 50 percent over the previous quarter.

Five weeks after the Bush administration brought thousands of new troops to quell rising sectarian violence in Baghdad, Assistant Secretary of Defense Peter Rodman says violence between Sunni and Shiite muslims has increased elsewhere in Iraq.

The report says violence has held steady in Baghdad. But it has increased in the southern city of Basra, where British troops have clashed with the Mahdi Army. It has risen in Diyala Province in central Iraq, as well as in the northern cities of Mosul and Kirkuk.

The report says, "Conditions that could lead to civil war exist in Iraq, specifically in and around Baghdad, and concern about civil war within the Iraqi civilian population has increased in recent months."

Nationwide in Iraq, the average number of weekly attacks tallied by the Pentagon has increased 15 percent over the past few months. Iraqi casualties have risen by 51 percent. That translates to 1,000 additional Iraqis killed each month.
also posted in the Fiasco thread, but repeated here.

Childhood Marriages Resurface in Iraq
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=5748348
Morning Edition, September 1, 2006 · Some families in Iraq are reverting to an old practice: marrying off daughters and female dependents at younger and younger ages. It's thought that women who marry very young will be more attached to their homes and children. For some girls, though, a childhood marriage can be the beginning of a life of misery.
So this is an improvement?! Way to go George.

Umm . . . this is not the path to Democracy, or does that not matter anymore . . . if it in the first place.
Astronuc
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Sep2-06, 07:13 AM
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Fouad Ajami on What Went Wrong in Iraq
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/s...toryId=5739619

Morning Edition, August 31, 2006 · Fouad Ajami supported the U.S.-led war in Iraq. In a new book, The Foreigner's Gift, he writes about went wrong with that war.

Ajami says the Arab world was prejudiced against the Shia Muslims who were poised to lead Iraq, and it was prejudiced against the Americans who confidently expected to help them do it.

Ajami was born in Lebanon to a Shiite Muslim family. Today, as an American journalist and academic, he has advised the White House on Iraq. He traveled to Iraq several times while writing a book called The Foreigner's Gift.

To Ajami, that gift was supposed to be liberty for Iraq and a new political order for the Arab world. He says the disaster came when Arab governments, Muslim imams, even Western-leaning intellectuals, rejected that gift.
Excerpt from Ajami's book - The Foreigner's Gift
Those nineteen young Arabs who assaulted America on the morning of 9/11 had come into their own after the disappointments of modern Arab history. They were not exactly traditional men: they were the issue, the children, of disappointment and of the tearing asunder of modern Arab history. They were city people, newly urbanized, half educated. They had filled the faith with their anxieties and a belligerent piety. They hated the West but were drawn to its magnetic force and felt the power of its attraction; they sharpened their "tradition," but it could no longer contain their lives or truly answer their needs. I had set out to write a long narrative of these pitiless young men -- and the culture that had given rise to them. But the Iraq war, "embedded" in this cruel history, was to overtake the writing I was doing.
Listen to -
Ajami Describes the Real Reasons for the Iraq War
Ajami on How History Will View the Iraq War
kyleb
#89
Sep2-06, 12:03 PM
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It makes sense that, especially as a Shia, Fouad Ajami would be so strongly in favor of replacing Saddam's Sunni rule with one respective of the Shia majority in Iraq. However, I dispute his focus on the foreign nature of that "gift", as in doing so he is overlooking the the effect of our chosen method of delivery. Diamonds are a gift few can deny, but even the most adored gems can be unwelcome when delivered though the barrel of a gun.
turbo
#90
Sep2-06, 12:35 PM
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Quote Quote by kyleb
It makes sense that, especially as a Shia, Fouad Ajami would be so strongly in favor of replacing Saddam's Sunni rule with one respective of the Shia majority in Iraq. However, I dispute his focus on the foreign nature of that "gift", as in doing so he is overlooking the the effect of our chosen method of delivery. Diamonds are a gift few can deny, but even the most adored gems can be unwelcome when delivered though the barrel of a gun.
Thank you!


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