1999 war games predicted problems with invasion of Iraq

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. government was tipped off years ago that invading Iraq would likely be problematic.

A series of secret war games in 1999 predicted that an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then chaos might ensue.

In its "Desert Crossing" games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs. The game also predicted that "a change in regimes does not guarantee stability."

There are currently about 144,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, down from a peak of about 160,000 in January.

Visiting with U.S. troops in Iraq December 23, Rumsfeld announced adjustments in troop deployments that "reduce forces in Iraq by the spring of 2006 below the current high of 160,000 during the [Iraqi] election period to below the 138,000 baseline that had existed before the most recent elections."

About 137,000 U.S. troops are in Iraq now, and that number was supposed to have dropped to 115,000 by May. But Rumsfeld said Gen. John Abizaid, the overall commander of the Iraq war, wants to keep the force level at about 135,000 troops.

I finde the article somewhat confusing: it talks about the invasion requiring 400,000 troops, then says: 160,000 is most certainly not more than we had for the invasion, though I'm having trouble finding that number. (edit: near as I can tell, we had about 250,000, but I'm looking more reliable sources)

Regardless, they are mixing unrelated facts to support their conclusion. I'd like to read the actual report...

WASHINGTON | The U.S. government conducted a series of secret war games in 1999 that anticipated that an invasion of Iraq would require 400,000 troops, and even then, chaos might ensue.

In its Desert Crossing games, 70 military, diplomatic and intelligence officials assumed that the high troop levels would be needed to keep order, seal borders and take care of other security needs.

The documents came to light Saturday through a Freedom of Information Act request by George Washington University’s National Security Archive.

“The conventional wisdom is the U.S. mistake in Iraq was not enough troops,” said Thomas Blanton, the archive’s director. “But the Desert Crossing war game in 1999 suggests we would have ended up with a failed state even with 400,000 troops on the ground.”