Teheran: Israel will regret any attack

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 Mentor Blog Entries: 4 Hi LightbulbSun, welcome to PF and please read the posting guidelines http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=113181. the following rules apply to all new threads started in Politics and World Affairs effective as of the date of posting of these guidelines: 1) A clear statement of purpose written by the person starting the thread and contained in the opening post of the thread. 5) When posting on topics of foreign policy or world issues, remember to ensure the topic is presented in a manner that makes all of our membership welcome to participate. We don't allow threads with nothing but a link to an article. Please explain what it is that you wish to discuss. Thanks!

Does it seem that the world, or parts of it, are going nuts - or nuttier than usual?

Apparently, there has been mention that Israel (really the Israeli government/military, or elements thereof) have devised a plan to use low yield nuclear weapons to destroy Iranian nuclear (perhaps limited to enrichment) facilities!

Israel reportedly has plans to destroy Iran uranium plants
 Two Israeli air force squadrons are training to blow up an Iranian facility using low-yield nuclear "bunker-busters," . . . .
Of course, the Israeli government denies this.

Of course, the Iranian government has threatened retaliation.

I hope people take a step back and realize that violence is a very bad way to resolve conflicts.

The immediate repercussions will likely be spike in oil prices and a drop in world stock markets.

Teheran: Israel will regret any attack

 Quote by Evo Hi LightbulbSun, welcome to PF and please read the posting guidelines http://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=113181. the following rules apply to all new threads started in Politics and World Affairs effective as of the date of posting of these guidelines: 1) A clear statement of purpose written by the person starting the thread and contained in the opening post of the thread. 5) When posting on topics of foreign policy or world issues, remember to ensure the topic is presented in a manner that makes all of our membership welcome to participate. We don't allow threads with nothing but a link to an article. Please explain what it is that you wish to discuss. Thanks!
Ah, sorry about that haha. What I wanted to discuss about was the recent news of Israel threatening a nuclear attack on Iran, but then denying of such a thing earlier today, and now this. Does anyone in government not see the repercussions of nuclear warfare? Counter nuclear attacks will wipe out not only our species, but make the Earth inhabitable forever. So it seems to me rather counterproductive to start a nuclear war.

I'm very anti-war. I wish we would get past this territorial game already and focus on more important issues. If everyone looked at life on Earth at a cosmic level they would see we're insignificant in the grand scale of the cosmos. That Earth remains to be our only home for life, and even that's just a pale blue dot to reference Carl Sagan's book. Thoughts on this subject or to my rantings? I know the notion of "embracing the whole human community" sounds rather trite nowadays considering the type of environment we're dealing with, but what's so disquieting about it? I'm sick of these lame excuses about how peace is unfulfilling and boring. How is war fulfilling I ask? Ok, sorry I'll end my line of thoughts here haha.
 Mentor Well, the threat to Israel here is real and needs to be considered. I had a short and pointless discussion with my boss about this today, as a matter of fact, and he considers it an absolutely 100% certainty that Iran is trying to build the bomb and when they acquire it they will use it on Israel. Given that criteria, Israel must prevent Iran from acquiring the bomb. The logic is infallible if you agree to the premise, but the premise is, of course, not that clear-cut (which is why discussing politics with my boss is pointless). So the question is: how big of a threat is Iran to Israel really? Would Iran use their weapons for deterrence or would they use them in a hot war? Is the leader of Iran really a lunatic or does he just play one on tv? Not easy questions to answer... One thing is clear: Israel has done a similar thing before and it is logical to conclude they would do it again if they felt it necessary. Adding the nuclear element to the attack adds a new dimension to it -it puts them in a club that no one in the world really wants to be in.

 Quote by russ_watters Well, the threat to Israel here is real and needs to be considered. I had a short and pointless discussion with my boss about this today, as a matter of fact, and he considers it an absolutely 100% certainty that Iran is trying to build the bomb and when they acquire it they will use it on Israel. Given that criteria, Israel must prevent Iran from acquiring the bomb. The logic is infallible if you agree to the premise, but the premise is, of course, not that clear-cut (which is why discussing politics with my boss is pointless). So the question is: how big of a threat is Iran to Israel really? Would Iran use their weapons for deterrence or would they use them in a hot war? Is the leader of Iran really a lunatic or does he just play one on tv? Not easy questions to answer... One thing is clear: Israel has done a similar thing before and it is logical to conclude they would do it again if they felt it necessary. Adding the nuclear element to the attack adds a new dimension to it -it puts them in a club that no one in the world really wants to be in.

But that leads to the question if Iran really does nuke Israel, does the U.S. in retaliation strike back by nuking Iran?

Mentor
 Quote by LightbulbSun Does anyone in government not see the repercussions of nuclear warfare? Counter nuclear attacks will wipe out not only our species, but make the Earth inhabitable forever. So it seems to me rather counterproductive to start a nuclear war.
Well that's what is complicated about this: if using a nuclear weapon really meant that, it would be a no-brainer (you couldn't use them), but clearly it doesn't. If Israel used a nuclear bunker-buster on Iran, who would retaliate on Israel with nuclear weapons? There are only a handful of nations that actually have the capability to wipe out a large fraction of the earth's population - why would they start lobbing nukes at each other in response to this?

Nuclear weapons are terrible to be sure, but they are not much more than just big bombs - contrary to the scary propaganda you hear from crackpot activists. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are thriving cities today. They never were uninhabitable after they were nuked.
 I'm very anti-war. I wish we would get past this territorial game already and focus on more important issues. If everyone looked at life on Earth at a cosmic level they would see we're insignificant in the grand scale of the cosmos. That Earth remains to be our only home for life, and even that's just a pale blue dot to reference Carl Sagan's book. Thoughts on this subject or to my rantings? I know the notion of "embracing the whole human community" sounds rather trite nowadays considering the type of environment we're dealing with, but what's so disquieting about it? I'm sick of these lame excuses about how peace is unfulfilling and boring. How is war fulfilling I ask? Ok, sorry I'll end my line of thoughts here haha.
There are not all that many people on earth who really are not anti-war. But a small handful of people with a lot of power and perhaps some mental illnesses are capable of getting others to follow them to war.

The hatred brewed in the Middle-East is tough to get past, but consider this: no two westernized nations have gone to war with each other in 60 years. And these are countries that used to be perpetually at war with each other. War is obsolete for certain countries and I honestly believe that other countries will come into the fold over time.

 Quote by russ_watters Well that's what is complicated about this: if using a nuclear weapon really meant that, it would be a no-brainer (you couldn't use them), but clearly it doesn't. If Israel used a nuclear bunker-buster on Iran, who would retaliate on Israel with nuclear weapons? There are only a handful of nations that actually have the capability to wipe out a large fraction of the earth's population - why would they start lobbing nukes at each other in response to this? Nuclear weapons are terrible to be sure, but they are not much more than just big bombs - contrary to the scary propaganda you hear from crackpot activists. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are thriving cities today. They never were uninhabitable after they were nuked.
I was just thinking about that just now russ, good points. However, too much radiation from the nuclear aftermath would be devastating.

 There are not all that many people on earth who really are not anti-war. But a small handful of people with a lot of power and perhaps some mental illnesses are capable of getting others to follow them to war. The hatred brewed in the Middle-East is tough to get past, but consider this: no two westernized nations have gone to war with each other in 60 years. And these are countries that used to be perpetually at war with each other. War is obsolete for certain countries and I honestly believe that other countries will come into the fold over time.
Now all we have to do is unite with the eastern hemisphere.

 Quote by LightbulbSun But that leads to the question if Iran really does nuke Israel, does the U.S. in retaliation strike back by nuking Iran?
That question is rather irrelevant, albeit more to Israelis than Iranians.

Mentor
 Quote by LightbulbSun But that leads to the question if Iran really does nuke Israel, does the U.S. in retaliation strike back by nuking Iran?
I wouldn't think so. Why would we?

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 Quote by russ_watters Nuclear weapons are terrible to be sure, but they are not much more than just big bombs - contrary to the scary propaganda you hear from crackpot activists. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are thriving cities today. They never were uninhabitable after they were nuked.
To raise a minor point, I think this is true, in part at least, because detonantions were at over a thousand feet in the air (to maximize civilian deaths) over H & N. I think if you had detonantion nearer ground (to take out ground level strategic targets) there would be higher levels of secondary radiation for longer...maybe up to a year within a many mile radius (for a payload of the order of tens of kilotons)?

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 Quote by Gokul43201 To raise a minor point, I think this is true, in part at least, because detonantions were at over a thousand feet in the air (to maximize civilian deaths) over H & N. I think if you had detonantion nearer ground (to take out ground level strategic targets) there would be higher levels of secondary radiation for longer...maybe up to a year within a many mile radius (for a payload of the order of tens of kilotons)?
And those were two very small bombs - firecrackers by today's standards.

IIRC, the biggest problems occur when material from the ground is exposed to the core of the explosion.
 Recognitions: Gold Member Science Advisor Staff Emeritus The Effects of Nuclear War Office of Technology Assessment (May 1979) http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/7906/

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 After a period of time, local fallout radiation levels decay to the point where the area would be considered “safe,” and survivors in fallout shelters would emerge. Nevertheless, low levels of radiation would persist for some time— indeed, low levels of radiation have persisted for years at some sites of nuclear weapons tests. The question of safety here is a relative one. By the standards of peacetime, many such areas would be considered unsafe, because living in them would expose a population to a significant risk of longterm hazards— cancer, genetic damage, etc. However, in the aftermath of a nucle ar attack, there may be few habitable areas that do not have a measurable (though low) level of additional radiation, and the survivors wouId simply have to accept the hazards. Some fallout is deposited in the troposphere, and then is brought down to Earth (largely by rain) over a period of weeks. Such fallout reaches areas quite far from the blast. While the doses inflicted would be relatively small, they would add to the risk. Some fallout is deposited in the stratosphere. It returns to Earth over a period of years (through the effects of gravity), and consequently only very long-lived radioactive isotopes pose a significant hazard. If the attacks are confined to the territory of the United States and the Soviet Union (and, for that matter, to Europe and China as well), then stratospheric fallout will be confined mostly to the Northern Hemisphere, and the region between 300 and 600 north latitude will receive the bulk of it.[continued]
http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/7906/790607.pdf

Note the implicit assumption that there would be fallout shelters available.

 After a period of time, local fallout radiation levels decay to the point where the area would be considered “safe,” and survivors in fallout shelters would emerge
How long? I didn't spot a good number, but I think the answer is that depending on the nature of the event, the distance from the epicenter, and the level of radiation one wishes to endure, this lands between thirty days and one year.

 Quote by russ_watters I wouldn't think so. Why would we?
Because we're strong allies with Israel, and we consider Iran not only a terrorist threat, but a nuclear one too. We can only assume that if Israel were nuked that the U.S. would feel threatened of an imminent nuclear attack on their own soil no matter how fabricated it may be.

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 Quote by LightbulbSun We can only assume that if Israel were nuked that the U.S. would feel threatened of an imminent nuclear attack on their own soil no matter how fabricated it may be.
Who do you refer to by the "US" - the administration, Congress, or the people?

I don't think anyone in the administration or Congress actually believes any of the Shahab 6 speculation (they'd much easier believe the taepodong's supposed range). But this doesn't mean it will be hard to put enough fear and doubt into enough people. Heck, if they could pull this off with Iraq's 100-mile al Samouds, they surely can create a lot more fear about the Shahabs.

The only US "soil" that Iran can reasonably reach are the embassies in the Middle East and vicinity.

 Quote by Gokul43201 Who do you refer to by the "US" - the administration, Congress, or the people? I don't think anyone in the administration or Congress actually believes any of the Shahab 6 speculation (they'd much easier believe the taepodong's supposed range). But this doesn't mean it will be hard to put enough fear and doubt into enough people. Heck, if they could pull this off with Iraq's 100-mile al Samouds, they surely can create a lot more fear about the Shahabs. The only US "soil" that Iran can reasonably reach are the embassies in the Middle East and vicinity.
well, actually, im pretty sure that the U.S. would attack. its not all about the range, a country who dare to use such weapons for the mere reason of killing people, is a big threat, not only to israel, but to europe as well, and could ever deliver it to the U.S. in means other than ballistics...
heh, the U.S. took action for much less in the past...

but i strongly believe that iran would not use a nuke(unless there is some goverment instability... a change of goverment to mindless fanatics might do it, but i cannot predict to happen).
nukes until now, have been a source for mutual fear. with such means they will be more free to move without outside reaction from U.S. or israel.
even if they will not use it, the situation is bad, a country with no morality free to do as it please without fear of others is bad..

btw, its not impossible that israel is preparing for using a bunker buster on the nuclear plant, but it can be for emergencies, where we will not be the aggressors...

and ye, wars are stupid, but countries such as russia, arab extremists, crazy gangs in africa, north korea, and china, does not seem to care, or at least their leaders...

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