Bayes theorem in quantum mecanics

j_dirac

hi, I have the next problem, but i don't know how begin, I think that must to be in this topic and no in homeworks since can generate interesting discussion.

I have two boxes,the first have one million of photons linearly polarized in x-direction and one million of photon linearly polarized in y-direction, the second box contain one million of photons with clockwise circular polarization and one one million of photon with counter-clockwise circular polarization, but I don't know which I have. What is the probability that I will make a wrong guess?