US Presidential Primaries, 2008

While assassination ought not to be grouped under terrorism (unless you also hold that most every Intelligence Agency is a terrorist organization), it is ironic that you picked 2 examples that made Bob's case. Both pre-WWI "Yugoslavia" and Iraq in '06 were highly fractured and unstable regions (and both under essentially foreign occupation). A better example would have been 9/11. Even a stable democracy can react irrationally to terrorism, particularly (but not necessarily) if it is of foreign origin, and cause a great escalation of violence.

In any case, this discussion should probably be excised from this thread and appended to the Progress in Iraq thread.

9/11 didn't create a large escalation of violence inside the United States. The London bombings and the Madrid bombings didn't result in an escalation of violence in either of those countries.

Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain have big leads over their rivals in Vermont with six days to go before the state's presidential primary, according to a new statewide poll.

Obama had the support of 57 percent of likely Democratic primary voters and Hillary Clinton had 33 percent, the poll found. Among likely Republican primary voters, McCain led with 69 percent, while Mike Huckabee had 17 percent and Ron Paul had 5 percent.

9/11 didn't create a large escalation of violence inside the United States. The London bombings and the Madrid bombings didn't result in an escalation of violence in either of those countries.

Whom will you vote for?

Clinton: 56%

Obama: 40%

Other: 4%

The Columbus Dispatch, with the largest poll conducted in Ohio, gives Clinton a whopping 16% lead.

http://www.dispatchpolitics.com/live...litics&sid=101



I'm giving this more credibility than I would have since they did not ask "Who will you vote for?" but less than I would have had they asked "For whom will you vote?"

How old is that poll? Today, reports indicate a very close race - closer than 16 points.

Unless I see some real movement from Obama in Ohio over the next couple of days, I'll be making the same predictions as Bob.

MR. RUSSERT: Here's the interesting thing about politics and why we love to cover campaigns. This year's being now described as fear vs. hope. The phone represents fear, and Obama is trying to suggest hope. Back in 2004, your man, William Jefferson Clinton, campaigning for John Kerry, framed Clinton's political law this way. Let's watch.

(Videotape, October 25, 2004)

FMR. PRES. CLINTON: Now, one of Clinton's laws of politics is this: If one candidate's trying to scare you and the other one's trying to get you to think, if one candidate's appealing to your fears and the other one's appealing to your hopes, you better vote for the person who wants you to think and hope.

Narrator: It's 3 AM, and your children are safe and asleep. But there's a phone in the White House, and it's ringing. Something's happening in the world. Your vote will decide who answers that call, whether it's someone who already knows the world's leaders, knows the military, someone tested and ready to lead in a dangerous world. It's 3 AM, and your children are safe and asleep. Who do you want answering the phone?

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON: I'm Hillary Clinton, and I approve this message.

For Texas, should we include the results of caucuses that are announced tuesday night or restrict ourselves to only the primary results?

A funny excerpt from MTP.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23434169/page/4/

This is all in response to Hillary's latest commercial

How is the winner declared officially; or does anyone know?

There really is nothing more than symbolic value to the term 'winner' in these races. There will be primaries and a part of the caucus happening on tuesday, the results of both being announced that night. The rest of the caucusing happens over the next month or two and their results will be announced when the Texas Dems sit down for their Convention (sometime in June?).

The reason Hillary's camp is kicking up a fuss about the Texas caucus and asking that the caucus results not be announced immediately is because they believe she has a better shot at coming out winner on tuesday if the caucus votes are tallied later (Obama always thrashes her in caucuses).