What is your guess at Drake's answer?

  • Thread starter Thread starter Ivan Seeking
  • Start date Start date
Click For Summary

Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around estimating the number of planets or environments in the universe that could support intelligent life, defined here as the ability to understand some form of abstract mathematics. Participants explore this question in the context of both the Milky Way galaxy and the broader universe, including unconventional life forms.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • One participant suggests that if the question is limited to the Milky Way galaxy, they would attempt to provide an estimate, but finds the broader universe too uncertain to engage with meaningfully.
  • Another participant expresses a preference for focusing on the Milky Way, noting that they believe Frank Drake's work was primarily concerned with our galaxy and radiocommunication.
  • One participant humorously suggests that the correct order of magnitude for intelligent species in the Milky Way might be around 10, while acknowledging that some might jokingly claim it to be zero.
  • A different participant estimates that there could be a few hundred intelligent species in our galaxy, although they express uncertainty about the total number of galaxies.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the number of intelligent species, with varying estimates and preferences for focusing on either the Milky Way or the entire universe. The discussion remains open-ended with multiple competing views.

Contextual Notes

Participants express uncertainty regarding the total number of galaxies, which affects their ability to estimate the abundance of intelligent life in the universe. There is also a recognition of the ambiguity surrounding the definition of intelligence.

How many planet with intelligent life in the Universe?

  • 10^0

    Votes: 1 25.0%
  • 10^1

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 10^6

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 10^10

    Votes: 3 75.0%
  • About a google +- 10^50

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    4
  • Poll closed .
Ivan Seeking
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
Messages
8,252
Reaction score
2,664
So how about it? What is your estimate or guess at the number of planets or other environments in the universe [no multi-verses please ] that support intelligent life. I will define intelligence as the ability to understand some form of abstract mathematics.

Note that I add "other environments” to allow for really weird stuff like giant gas cloud jellyfish
 
Astronomy news on Phys.org
Originally posted by Ivan Seeking
So how about it? What is your estimate or guess at the number of planets or other environments in the universe [no multi-verses please ] that support intelligent life. I will define intelligence as the ability to understand some form of abstract mathematics.

Note that I add "other environments” to allow for really weird stuff like giant gas cloud jellyfish

Hi, if you change the question to be about the Milky Way galaxy
I will try to come up with a guess.

But if it is about the universe, I don't even know the number of galaxies. Besides which it's only life in our own galaxy that I imagine humans encountering at some point in our history. Life in other galaxies does not interest me so much. So would rather not bother to estimate its abundance.

I think Frank Drake was thinking about radiocommunication and that his speculations and equation were mainly concerned with our galaxy also---but I don't know for sure about that.
 


Originally posted by marcus
Hi, if you change the question to be about the Milky Way galaxy
I will try to come up with a guess.

But if it is about the universe, I don't even know the number of galaxies. Besides which it's only life in our own galaxy that I imagine humans encountering at some point in our history. Life in other galaxies does not interest me so much. So would rather not bother to estimate its abundance.

I think Frank Drake was thinking about radiocommunication and that his speculations and equation were mainly concerned with our galaxy also---but I don't know for sure about that.

Whoops! uh,hmmm. You're right of course. I hadn't looked at this for so long...I was thinking we went for the whole universe.
The key concept of radio should have reminded me.
Even though I would really be intersted in the guesses for the entire universe, I suppose we may rule out too many votes that way.
Heck, how about both? I'll start another thread.
 
If you do start a thread concerning this galaxy
then I shall vote immediately.
I think the right order of magnitude to guess is 10.

(some people trying to be funny will say zero)
 
Originally posted by marcus
(some people trying to be funny will say zero)
Of course they could be right! Heck, even if we are completely alone in the universe, who are we to say what intelligence is? :wink:
 
Greetings !

My rough and yet best estimate is a few
hundreds of intellegent spiecies in our galaxy.
So, I just answered 10^10, but of course I don't
quite have any idea how many galaxies there are...:wink:

Live long and prosper.
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 26 ·
Replies
26
Views
8K
  • Poll Poll
  • · Replies 12 ·
Replies
12
Views
4K
  • · Replies 21 ·
Replies
21
Views
6K
  • · Replies 15 ·
Replies
15
Views
7K
  • · Replies 9 ·
Replies
9
Views
6K
Replies
1
Views
3K
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
3K
Replies
12
Views
5K
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • Poll Poll
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K