Heat wave in India kills over 1,100

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers around the severe heat wave in India that has resulted in over 1,100 deaths, with participants exploring potential links to human-induced global warming and climate change. The conversation touches on weather versus climate, historical drought patterns, and the implications of pollution and agricultural practices.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that the extreme temperatures could be linked to human-induced global warming, questioning whether a global increase in temperature exacerbates heat waves.
  • Others argue that heat waves are a weather phenomenon distinct from climate change, asserting that the average global temperature increase is minimal and does not directly correlate with specific weather events.
  • There is a discussion about the historical context of droughts, with some participants referencing the worst droughts occurring in the 1920s and questioning the relevance of this to current climate discussions.
  • One participant mentions the sun's 11-year activity cycle, suggesting it may influence climate, while others challenge this notion, asserting that it does not directly affect weather patterns.
  • Some participants express skepticism about the narrative linking pollution and climate change, arguing that historical CO2 levels do not support claims of a direct correlation between human activity and recent weather extremes.
  • There is mention of a potential recent study indicating a severe drought in the 1550-1600 period, prompting questions about cyclic weather patterns and the need for accurate information amidst polarized views on climate change.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views, with no consensus on the relationship between the heat wave and global warming. Disagreements persist regarding the interpretation of historical climate data and the influence of human activity on weather patterns.

Contextual Notes

Participants reference various historical droughts and climate phenomena, but the discussion remains unresolved regarding the implications of these events for current climate change debates. There are also uncertainties about the accuracy of claims made regarding CO2 levels and their historical context.

Dissident Dan
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http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=535&ncid=535&e=7&u=/ap/20030602/ap_on_re_as/india_deadly_heat

Temperatures have reached 120 degrees. Normal monsoon rains have not come. Over 1,100 have died due to this, according to India's state-run All India Radio. A district administrator said, "We have asked them not to come out into open between 10 a.m. and 5 p.m."

Could this be a result of human-induced global warming?
 
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No. A heat wave is weather. Global warming is climate. Big difference.

At worst, we've only increased the average global temperature by a couple of degrees F by now.

Btw, why is this politics?
 
The section is called "Politics and World Affairs".

------

Bu climate change leads to changes in specific events as well. Droughts and floods are becoming more common, which many say is probably linked to global warming. Wouldn't a global increase in temperature make a heat wave that much worse?
 
Global warming is a myth, remember? And so is pollution, and anything else that might slow down industry.
 
Originally posted by Dissident Dan
The section is called "Politics and World Affairs".
Oops, good point.
Bu climate change leads to changes in specific events as well. Droughts and floods are becoming more common, which many say is probably linked to global warming. Wouldn't a global increase in temperature make a heat wave that much worse?
No, droughts and floods are NOT becoming more common. Thats a perception based on memory. Last winter was the coldest and snowiest winter I've ever seen. Does that mean we're entering the next ice age? No. In the US anyway, the worst droughts in history were in the 20s.

Also, its important to note, the sun has an 11 year activity cycle. I'm not sure if its at a high or low right now.

You are right however that a climate change could change specific events - but there hasn't been a major climate change yet. The worry of global warming is for FUTURE global climate change. The reason there is still so much controversy is that past climate change has been so small. Something like 2F in the past 100 years.

But if you mean would a 2F change in average global temperature translate directly into a 2F increase in a heat wave, no. Climate is nowhere near that specific.
 
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11 activity cycle doesn't have anything to do with the weather, as far as I know. Besides, it's been far more than 11 years since the 1920s...
And wow, we are going back to the 1920s now? It's that bad?

But if you mean would a 2F change in average global temperature translate directly into a 2F increase in a heat wave, no. Climate is nowhere near that specific.
Of course not. Rather weather extremes are symptomatic of overall inbalancing of the weather system. It's not a smooth transition, but rather a metastable system that may collapse unexpectedly. Climate does have a large influence on weather.
But some signs do mean bad news. This fits in a wider pattern of other incidents across the world.
 
Originally posted by FZ+
11 activity cycle doesn't have anything to do with the weather, as far as I know. Besides, it's been far more than 11 years since the 1920s...
Actually, the 11 year cycle DOES affect global climate. You can read it on the rings of trees.

And wow, we are going back to the 1920s now? It's that bad?
Um, no. My point was its nowhere even close to that bad.
 
Usually when I visit in India, it's during the Monsoon season.

Did it give any specific locations of severity?
 
  • #10
Also, what does the fact the worst droughts happened in the 1920s have anything to do with the ice age? And what does the ice age have to do with global warming?
 
  • #11
Originally posted by FZ+
Also, what does the fact the worst droughts happened in the 1920s have anything to do with the ice age? And what does the ice age have to do with global warming?
They seemed like simple enough examples/analogies to me. Nevermind.
 
  • #12
And wow, we are going back to the 1920s now? It's that bad?
In fact, yes that is very bad. When you realize that the 1920s are after the industrial revolution where the majority of the pollution occurred and we get as a result the worst droughts in history. The suggests that if there is a link, pollution or environmental damage from farming has an effect much sooner that previous thought and that continued mismanagement may lead to a recurrence of these conditions.
 
  • #13
Originally posted by FZ+
In fact, yes that is very bad. When you realize that the 1920s are after the industrial revolution where the majority of the pollution occurred and we get as a result the worst droughts in history. The suggests that if there is a link, pollution or environmental damage from farming has an effect much sooner that previous thought and that continued mismanagement may lead to a recurrence of these conditions.
No. I'm sorry, but that is not historically accurate. The level of CO2 production has been steadily increasing since the 1800s. http://sofia.usgs.gov/sfrsf/rooms/coastal/flbay/genedustbigs/geneco2concx.gif is a graph of historical CO2 levels. Its not like the CO2 levels skyrocketed in the 1800s and then went down again in the 1930s and are now going up again - which is what would be required by what you suggest. There is also a form of inertia here: a lag between the CO2 levels and the resultant temperature flux. Far from suggesting a link, it shows just the opposite: how much deviation there can be from the mean without the influence of global warming necessarily being a factor.
 
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  • #15
And it still isn't reassuring that the worst drought on record occurred after human activity, rather than before. (also, there may be the confusing factor of agricultural activity in that period.) I don't think the fact the worst droughts occurred relatively so recently is something makes one feel better.
 
  • #16
Originally posted by FZ+
And it still isn't reassuring that the worst drought on record occurred after human activity, rather than before. (also, there may be the confusing factor of agricultural activity in that period.) I don't think the fact the worst droughts occurred relatively so recently is something makes one feel better.

I thought that there had been a recent study showing that there may have been an even more severe drought during the period between 1550 and 1600 then the "dustbowl" drought of the 30's? Also, what about evidence of cyclic weather patterns? I don't dispute the need to cut pollution and waste, we are a very "green" household but..I do like to know the "truth" as opposed to either sides propagandized opinion.
 

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