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Peak fossil fuels by 2017

by apeiron
Tags: 2017, fossil, fuels, peak
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Skrew
#469
Dec23-12, 04:30 PM
P: 168
The fact that gas is still less costly per gallon then milk amazes me considering one is a finite resource which is being consumed in vast quantites.

While peak oil may not happen yet, it will happen and happen long before the sun destroys the planet.
mheslep
#470
Dec23-12, 07:40 PM
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Quote Quote by rootX View Post
I wonder if the US need that pipeline:

http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents...,33015,en.html
The proposed but blocked Keystone pipeline is for oil, not natural gas. The US is going to be importing oil from somewhere for years to come in spite of the increase in domestic production. I prefer the imports come via pipeline rather than tanker ship.
AlephZero
#471
Dec23-12, 09:54 PM
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Quote Quote by Skrew View Post
The fact that gas is still less costly per gallon then milk amazes me considering one is a finite resource which is being consumed in vast quantites.
That is partly political, if a government decides to subsidize growing crops to make biofuel, rather than using them to feedi cattle (or even to feedi humans).

AFAIK "high milk prices" are not an major election issue, but "high gas prices" certainly are.
russ_watters
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Dec23-12, 10:35 PM
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Quote Quote by AlephZero View Post
AFAIK "high milk prices" are not an major election issue, but "high gas prices" certainly are.
I burn more than a gallon of gas a day driving to work. Plus what I use in heating my house. That's why its a bigger issue.
rootX
#473
Dec23-12, 11:03 PM
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Quote Quote by mheslep View Post
The proposed but blocked Keystone pipeline is for oil, not natural gas. The US is going to be importing oil from somewhere for years to come in spite of the increase in domestic production. I prefer the imports come via pipeline rather than tanker ship.
Quote Quote by russ_watters View Post
I burn more than a gallon of gas a day driving to work. Plus what I use in heating my house. That's why its a bigger issue.
Interesting question is how interchangeable can be natural gas and oil. For example, considering two things russ pointed out:

Heating:
Others have built fundamental models to relate the price of natural gas and the price of oil by analyzing the various end users that can switch relatively quickly between the two. A simple example of this is heating applications, since many residential, commercial, and industrial boilers can burn either natural gas or distillate fuel oil, which has historically been priced about 95 percent that of crude oil.
http://thebulletin.org/web-edition/c...e-differential

Gas:
Energy Department Announces New ARPA-E Projects to Advance Innovative Natural Gas Vehicle Technologies
http://www.doe.gov/articles/energy-d...al-gas-vehicle
russ_watters
#474
Dec23-12, 11:45 PM
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Quote Quote by rootX View Post
Interesting question is how interchangeable can be natural gas and oil....

Heating:
My house is heated by propane, which is a derivative of oil. I would much prefer it if it were heated by natural gas, at half the price. I have vaguely investigated the possibility of connecting to a local gas main, but nothing has come of that yet. Due to the expanding of the disparity between oil and gas prices though (your link), I may need to look into that more....but since oil has dropped (just not as much as gas), I suspect interest for such a project will be slim in my homeowner's association. I suppose the main issue is whether to put up the capital to make the switch or just let the natural gas supply pull the demand and price for propane down, and ride that out. Win/win.
jim mcnamara
#475
Dec24-12, 09:49 AM
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Viewing only the cost of the energy, not what utilities charge for transporation and distribution:

Current December price is $US 0.4415 per therm. - I'm at New Mexico Gas Company.
This is actually the wholesale price the company pays - we are mandated to charge customers what we pay per therm. Projected price for January is about $0.49.

Retail January projected price for propane here is $2.63/gal. A gallon of propane is close to a therm in energy content: .91994 therms.

So in NM, the projected net difference for a therm of energy is $2.85 for a therm of propane versus $0.49 a therm of natural gas is a factor of ~5.8. Russ, you should switch sooner rather than later.

Also as a side note: one of the liquid by products of raw natural gas is propane. As Russ alluded to earlier.
russ_watters
#476
Dec24-12, 10:09 AM
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I made a spreadsheet a while back for comparing prices and updated it a few weeks ago. Propane was $2.24/gal delivered, so I think you are comparing the commodity/energy price of gas to the delivered price of propane. That said, I didn't get an exact cost from my dad, who is my source for natural gas prices: he thinks he's paying about a dollar.

That equates to a ratio of 2.5:1.

My problem isn't the ratio of the prices though, its the $ per therm difference. If both drop by the same $/therm (for example), the ratio widens but the economics of switching don't actually improve because the amount of heat we use stays the same.

And actually, I thought propane came from oil only, so I looked it up. Seems it comes from both:
Propane is produced as a by-product of two other processes, natural gas processing and petroleum refining.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propane#Sources


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