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Japan Earthquake: nuclear plants

by gmax137
Tags: earthquake, japan, nuclear
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StrangeBeauty
#8137
May24-11, 09:47 PM
P: 61
Quote Quote by andybwell View Post
Look at the 5th picture. At the top of the photo you see the skeletal remnants of the wall of the 3rd and 4th floors. There are two massive steam pipes running behind and below the building...the lower edge of the lower pipe is almost perfectly aligned with the floor level of the 3rd floor. Follow the floor line of the third floor down down from that back wall along the right side of the building, then across the front side of the building near the bottom of the photo. There is nothing but air remaining above that level, except for a bit of roof debris which you can see through. Is that the top of the primary containment vessel, as well as the top of the reactor itself?

http://cryptome.org/eyeball/daiichi-...chi-photos.htm
No. The reactor and containment are on the opposite side of the building. If you are truly interested, you need to look back in the thread to see the discussion of the layout of the building (with many excellent pictures), and the ramifications of your highly unlikely scenario.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. E.g. show us a clear picture of the primary containment cap or its fragments. (Actually I'd like to see a clear picture of the caps regardless of their location and state)
MiceAndMen
#8138
May24-11, 09:54 PM
P: 276
Quote Quote by zapperzero View Post
Hm? What distorsion?
(As someone else pointed out, your reputation is fine. It's the webcam that has a poor one.)

The pictures from that JNN webcam present a distorted view of reality. The original image is an SD (Standard Definition) 4:3 aspect ratio frame that has been stretched out to fill a 16:9 frame and falsely presented as HD.

Here's what it looks like (16:9 faux HD stretch-O-vision):
Click image for larger version

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And here's what it should look like (4:3 SD aspect ratio):
Click image for larger version

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The live feed is a distraction at best and at worst it provides grist for the rumor mill. It has lead to all kinds of absurd speculation including:
  • The reactors are belching smoke (at least twice a week someone posts this)
  • Building 4 is leaning
  • Reactor 3 is on fire

My opinion is that that webcam has produced zero useful observations since Unit 3 exploded. I have never tuned in to the live feed; it shows nothing of interest unless you're looking for a weather report. I wish they would just turn the damn thing off, at least until something new and interesting actually happens at the site.
Attached Thumbnails
stretchmarks.png  
MiceAndMen
#8139
May24-11, 10:01 PM
P: 276
Quote Quote by andybwell View Post
Look at the 5th picture. At the top of the photo you see the skeletal remnants of the wall of the 3rd and 4th floors. There are two massive steam pipes running behind and below the building...the lower edge of the lower pipe is almost perfectly aligned with the floor level of the 3rd floor. Follow the floor line of the third floor down down from that back wall along the right side of the building, then across the front side of the building near the bottom of the photo. There is nothing but air remaining above that level, except for a bit of roof debris which you can see through. Is that the top of the primary containment vessel, as well as the top of the reactor itself?

http://cryptome.org/eyeball/daiichi-...chi-photos.htm
The topic and all those pictures were discussed here weeks ago. The photos were dissected and analyzed thoroughly. I respectfully suggest that you go back and review that discussion and how the photos were marked up and annotated. If you find a new angle that hasn't been discussed yet I'm sure people will be happy to engage you in conversation about it.
andybwell
#8140
May24-11, 10:09 PM
P: 46
Quote Quote by SteveElbows View Post
Also for the sake of adding the final bit of info I have left to add to conversations about round equipment and the layout of the reactor fuel service floor, I think the same video also shows the reactor cap of unit 4, has this been noticed before?

Watching the video from around the 2 mins 46 seconds mark to get bearings in relation to the yellow containment cap that we know very well already. Watch as the camera starts to show stuff that is further to the right of this yellow cap. Pause it around 3 mins 6 seconds. There is a bit of circular equipment visible at the top of the image, I believe this is still attached to the reactor cap after removal of the cap, and with that in mind a fairly faint image of a dark cap becomes apparent. They look like they are leaning noticeably, but I am wary of how much things can be misjudged due to angle image is being shot at, etc.
I apologize for not doing due diligence research before posting.

http://www.youtube.com/user/modchann.../0/ZKFGavZ_rf4
andybwell
#8141
May24-11, 10:35 PM
P: 46
Quote Quote by MiceAndMen View Post
The topic and all those pictures were discussed here weeks ago. The photos were dissected and analyzed thoroughly. I respectfully suggest that you go back and review that discussion and how the photos were marked up and annotated. If you find a new angle that hasn't been discussed yet I'm sure people will be happy to engage you in conversation about it.
I was looking at those pictures for the first time today and the hackles went up on the back of my neck as to the enormity of this catastrophe and its ramifications if it cannot be "stabilized"
StrangeBeauty
#8142
May24-11, 11:09 PM
P: 61
Quote Quote by andybwell View Post
I apologize for not doing due diligence research before posting.

http://www.youtube.com/user/modchann.../0/ZKFGavZ_rf4
Oops I wasn't completely clear. I meant for units 1-3. The unit #4 bright yellow cap has been visible in many pics for weeks now.

Quote Quote by andybwell
...and its ramifications if it cannot be "stabilized"
I share your concern. I think the characterization of the situation being 'static' is generally accepted as a description of the recent past. All aspects of the situation are certainly not 'stabilized' and there are many unique problems to conquer in trying to get the site safe, and cleaned up, not to mention trying to get significant swaths of the countryside habitable again. I'm not sure anyone here thinks that it can't eventually be 'stabilized' but how long that takes and the final cost in earth, air, water, money, and humanity is up for speculation.

It is difficult to assess the probability of something new going catastrophically wrong at this point (e.g. SPF4 collapsing; another explosion; etc.).
Azby
#8143
May24-11, 11:13 PM
P: 64
The Daily Yomiuri Online has posted diagrams describing fuel melting in reactors 1,2 and 3, based on info from TEPCO. Anyone care to comment on the plausibility and/or likelihood of these scenarios?

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110524006012.htm
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/photo/DY...02058990L0.jpg
Attached Thumbnails
DY20110525102058990L0.jpg  
andybwell
#8144
May24-11, 11:26 PM
P: 46
Quote Quote by StrangeBeauty View Post
No. The reactor and containment are on the opposite side of the building. If you are truly interested, you need to look back in the thread to see the discussion of the layout of the building (with many excellent pictures), and the ramifications of your highly unlikely scenario.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. E.g. show us a clear picture of the primary containment cap or its fragments. (Actually I'd like to see a clear picture of the caps regardless of their location and state)
"the ramifications of your unlikely scenario" I was unable to locate them in this thread. Could you elaborate or give me a link?
andybwell
#8145
May24-11, 11:47 PM
P: 46
Quote Quote by StrangeBeauty View Post
Oops I wasn't completely clear. I meant for units 1-3. The unit #4 bright yellow cap has been visible in many pics for weeks now.


I share your concern. I think the characterization of the situation being 'static' is generally accepted as a description of the recent past. All aspects of the situation are certainly not 'stabilized' and there are many unique problems to conquer in trying to get the site safe, and cleaned up, not to mention trying to get significant swaths of the countryside habitable again. I'm not sure anyone here thinks that it can't eventually be 'stabilized' but how long that takes and the final cost in earth, air, water, money, and humanity is up for speculation.

It is difficult to assess the probability of something new going catastrophically wrong at this point (e.g. SPF4 collapsing; another explosion; etc.).
"All aspects of the situation are certainly not 'stabilized' " Given your obvious expertise, what is a potential likely outcome a year, two, or ten from now?
andybwell
#8146
May25-11, 12:00 AM
P: 46
[QUOTE=StrangeBeauty;3320897]Oops I wasn't completely clear. I meant for units 1-3. The unit #4 bright yellow cap has been visible in many pics for weeks now.

It is difficult to assess the probability of something new going catastrophically wrong at this point (e.g. SPF4 collapsing; another explosion; etc.).[/QUOTE

Would an earthquake 6.9 or greater cause a catastrophe? The chances of such an earthquake appear possible.
sp2
#8147
May25-11, 12:17 AM
P: 46
Quote Quote by StrangeBeauty View Post
No. The reactor and containment are on the opposite side of the building. If you are truly interested, you need to look back in the thread to see the discussion of the layout of the building (with many excellent pictures), and the ramifications of your highly unlikely scenario.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. E.g. show us a clear picture of the primary containment cap or its fragments. (Actually I'd like to see a clear picture of the caps regardless of their location and state)

If you're gonna sneeringly dismiss somebody (as so many on this forum spend so much energy doing), don't you think you ought to at least try and make a little more sense than than the OP you're so sneeringly dismissing?

<<The reactor and containment are on the opposite side of the building. >>

I have no idea what you're trying to say there, but I'm quite sure what you did say makes no sense whatsoever.
AntonL
#8148
May25-11, 12:31 AM
P: 521
Soil contamination from Fukushima crisis comparable to Chernobyl:
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/05/93120.html
TOKYO, May 25, Kyodo

Radiation released by the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant has caused soil contamination matching the levels seen in the Chernobyl disaster in some areas, a researcher told the government's nuclear policy-setting body Tuesday.

''A massive soil decontamination project will be indispensable before residents in those areas can return,'' said Tomio Kawata, a research fellow of the Nuclear Waste Management Organization of Japan, at the meeting of the Japan Atomic Energy Commission, which sets policies and strategies for the government's nuclear power development.

According to Kawata, soil in a 600 square kilometer area mostly to the northwest of the Fukushima plant is likely to have absorbed radioactive cesium of over 1.48 million becquerels per square meter, the yardstick for compulsory migration orders in the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe
sp2
#8149
May25-11, 12:38 AM
P: 46
Quote Quote by MiceAndMen View Post
(As someone else pointed out, your reputation is fine. It's the webcam that has a poor one.)

The pictures from that JNN webcam present a distorted view of reality. The original image is an SD (Standard Definition) 4:3 aspect ratio frame that has been stretched out to fill a 16:9 frame and falsely presented as HD.

Here's what it looks like (16:9 faux HD stretch-O-vision):
Attachment 35894

And here's what it should look like (4:3 SD aspect ratio):
Attachment 35892

The live feed is a distraction at best and at worst it provides grist for the rumor mill. It has lead to all kinds of absurd speculation including:
  • The reactors are belching smoke (at least twice a week someone posts this)
  • Building 4 is leaning
  • Reactor 3 is on fire

My opinion is that that webcam has produced zero useful observations since Unit 3 exploded. I have never tuned in to the live feed; it shows nothing of interest unless you're looking for a weather report. I wish they would just turn the damn thing off, at least until something new and interesting actually happens at the site.


To you, and all you guys who seem to spend a good deal of your leisure-time in mocking anybody who ever suggested that there might possibly be an issue with the srtuctural integrity of Building 4, I have three questions:

1. What exactly are the circled regions in your picture supposed to be telling us?
You seem to have circled anything that looks distinctly non-parallel to the picture frame.
So? Your point is what, exactly?
2. What's the big deal about the stretching of the format in the live-vid? It would exaggerate any deviations from vertical, I suppose, but it wouldn't create them, would it?
3. Does it occur to you guys that there's probably a *reason* that TEPCO keeps publicly discussing the need to 'stabilize the building' and 'shore it up to prevent collapse?'
(I've heard them make statements to this effect at least three different times now.)
Do you think they keep saying those things because they're 'hysterical,' or because they've been stupidly fooled by the distortion of the format on the web-cam?

Or, do you think, just possibly, they might actually think they have particular cause to worry about the prospect of the building (or part thereof) collapsing?

I'm sorry, but the snotty condescension of many voices here, masquerading as supreme rationality when it's sometimes really quite the opposite, is a little tough to take after a while.
zapperzero
#8150
May25-11, 01:32 AM
P: 1,042
Quote Quote by Azby View Post
The Daily Yomiuri Online has posted diagrams describing fuel melting in reactors 1,2 and 3, based on info from TEPCO. Anyone care to comment on the plausibility and/or likelihood of these scenarios?

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T110524006012.htm
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/photo/DY...02058990L0.jpg
The timeline for #1 looks like a textbook example, dunno about the others.
AntonL
#8151
May25-11, 01:51 AM
P: 521
on 23 May NHK reported http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/23_25.html
The operator of the damaged Fukushima nuclear power plant is continuing the transfer of highly radioactive water from 2 reactor buildings to storage facilities within the compound, but the facilities are expected to become full within 3 or 4 days
on 24 May NHK report the following NISA instruction to Tepco http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/24_38.html
The agency has also asked TEPCO to wrap up a plan for storing and treating radioactively contaminated water at the plant by June 1st.
this is a surprise no finalised water storage and treating plans
(If I remember correctly the Areva plant should be operating by 1st June.)
westfield
#8152
May25-11, 01:53 AM
P: 145
Quote Quote by sp2 View Post
snip >

3. Does it occur to you guys that there's probably a *reason* that TEPCO keeps publicly discussing the need to 'stabilize the building' and 'shore it up to prevent collapse?'< snip.
Yes there would be a reason TEPCO stated that but why jump to the conclusion that they are talking about the entire building?

TEPCO have never mentioned anything specific regarding stuctural integrity of the RB of unit #4 APART from their desire to shore up the underside of the SFP.

To accomplish that they will cut a sizable hole in the outside wall and some inside walls of RB #4 to gain suitable access to the underside of the SFP and will put workers in there to do the work.

TEPCO are planning to use what will amount to tens of tons of steel and concrete to provide support to the underside of the pool.

I'm not TEPCO but it doesn't seem unreasonable to assume that if TEPCO thought for a moment the whole building was facing collapse they would not be proposing to cut holes in it, put workers in there and at the same time add significant additional load to the base structure.

Sure the upper levels of RB #4 are trashed and have significant structural damage, the remaining sections are definately leaning this way and that. There is no doubt, it's plain to see. That means very little in regard to the overall stuctural integrity of the rest of the building - we can't see that, let alone make a judgement on its integrity.

We have seen the images of inside the building lower levels and how relatively intact things are there - if we had only seen those images and not the images of the upper levels would we think the building is about to fall over?
MiceAndMen
#8153
May25-11, 01:55 AM
P: 276
Quote Quote by sp2 View Post
To you, and all you guys who seem to spend a good deal of your leisure-time in mocking anybody who ever suggested that there might possibly be an issue with the srtuctural integrity of Building 4, I have three questions:

1. What exactly are the circled regions in your picture supposed to be telling us?
You seem to have circled anything that looks distinctly non-parallel to the picture frame.
So? Your point is what, exactly?
I didn't want to post that last pic but couldn't find a way to un-attach it after I posted. Please ignore it. If you must know, the circled parts highlight a few things in the image that contribute to the overall optical illusion of tilt. The articulating boom of the Putzmeister is angled off-vertical. There is something amiss on the upper reaches of the pillar in the SE corner of the building. The entire roof line - or what's left of it - goes down and to the right. Even the JNN logo font is tilted. All these visual artifacts contribute to the overall false impression that the image gives to the viewer.
Quote Quote by sp2 View Post
2. What's the big deal about the stretching of the format in the live-vid? It would exaggerate any deviations from vertical, I suppose, but it wouldn't create them, would it?
It's a big deal because it is not a faithful representation of the scene. It exaggerates the horizontal scale and presents the viewer with false information that clearly has an exaggerated horizontal bias. Add in the circled bits of the last image and you wind up with a picture that is dishonest. Would you watch a 4:3 SD television show stretched out to 16:9 on your HD television for any length of time? I wouldn't. The scenes presented are not accurate reproductions of the source material.
Quote Quote by sp2 View Post
3. Does it occur to you guys that there's probably a *reason* that TEPCO keeps publicly discussing the need to 'stabilize the building' and 'shore it up to prevent collapse?'
They need to shore up the supports under the SFP because the entire building's structural integrity has been compromised. Its ability to bear the load of the SFP has been reduced. But there does not appear to be - by any publicly available credible evidence - an apparent and imminent danger of the building collapsing at the SE corner. Those who espouse that view are (in my opinion) perhaps a bit hysterical. Distorted webcam feeds only encourage them. That's why I wish they would just turn it off. It would be good for the hysteria quotient.
Quote Quote by sp2 View Post
I'm sorry, but the snotty condescension of many voices here, masquerading as supreme rationality when it's sometimes really quite the opposite, is a little tough to take after a while.
I have no idea what you're on about here.
swl
#8154
May25-11, 02:06 AM
P: 108
It appears that TEPCO has engineers reading this forum:

Quote Quote by AntonL View Post
However, if they study the CAMS data... then they would note a spike in the readings between 13:00 and 15:25 on 15 March which would make the event even a couple of hours earlier, - a nice correlation between a theoretical study and actual field readings.
And now this TEPCO quote from businessweek:

"It (TEPCO) revised the time the No. 1 reactor melted to within 15 hours of the quake, an hour earlier than it gave last week when it announced the damage to the reactor was worse than thought.


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