Japan earthquake - contamination & consequences outside Fukushima NPP

tsutsuji

How can you know if your interpretation is different from mine as long as I don't provide any interpretation ? My only comment on those figures is that "It does not answer [Luca Bevil's] question about evacuees".

Azby

Yes, and because I've heard a lot of what Lyman has to say I'm prepared for his take on the matter, as well as for Brennan and many of the others quoted in the article as well. I guess I'm relieved that the author of the article let each of the interviewees state their positions without adding any spin of his own. He kind of simply laid out the "he said, she said" argument.

As for Lyman's position, I agree that it makes my logic neuron hurt (I'm pretty sure I don't have more than one...). But the larger issue is "how few illnesses or deaths are few enough not to worry about?" And I think he's trying to highlight that. We're all forced into the position of accepting a certain number as part of our participation in a developed society, through automobile accidents, carcinogens in our food, etc etc.. If we were one day able to detect these currently undetectable casualties, would we want to change our risk parameters, and possibly eliminate one cause? I think we would, because we want to become a better, fairer, healthier society. It's the same question as, "How safe is safe enough?" And at what point do we decide that the diminishing returns no longer make it worthwhile, and we make individuals responsible for protecting themselves from the lesser risks? Would that even be possible in the case of anthropogenic radiation?

I'd like to add that I'm glad the author said that various other diseases, like diabetes, cataracts and heart problems, have been "hinted at" by some Chernobyl studies, and not, as quite few people insist, that they have been "demonstrated" or "proven." And I'm SO glad he didn't give Busby's lunacy a platform. Looks like the latter is finally getting his due, btw:

"Post-Fukushima 'anti-radiation' pills condemned by scientists
Green party distances itself from Dr Christopher Busby, a former spokesman promoting products following Japanese nuclear disaster"

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environmen...ills-fukushima

NUCENG

I wasn't speculating about your interpretation. I really appreciate all the facts you dig up from Japanese language sources, as my Japanese skills are limited in technical terminology and writing. I was only suspecting that the reason that Luca asked about suicide was to insinuate that any increase was due to the reactor accident alone. I should not have posted this as a reply to your post. Sorry!

NUCENG

Good point!

tsutsuji

Thank you for your understanding.

According to http://www.pref.fukushima.jp/toukei/...3_3_9houbu.pdf , The Fukushima population decreased by 1.75% from 2,024,401 to 1,988,955 between 1 March 2011 and 1 October 2011. Between 1 March 2010 and 1 October 2010 there had been a 0.43% decrease. The note at the top of the page says that those figures take into account only the departures from and arrivals into Fukushima prefecture that were reported by the citizens to authorities, which suggest that the actual numbers might be different.

NUCENG

Thanks for the Busby story. I love it when a socialist discovers capitalism and becomes just another greedy 1%-er. Unfortunately he makes the same mistake most neophytes commiit. He assumes that people will pay more for his product than the market competetive price because he is "special." That is a recipe for failure. When he fails he will blame Capitalism instead of his own stupidity.

tsutsuji

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2011...206531000.html The helicopter surveys of Aomori, Aichi, Ishikawa, and Fukui prefectures have been released, completing the contamination map of the 22 prefectures in Eastern Honshu. The ministry of education and science comments that some mountain ranges have limited the spread of radioactive clouds.

http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/1...910_1125_2.pdf Helicopter maps of Aomori, Aichi, Ishikawa, and Fukui prefectures.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/ne...OYT1T01108.htm At Abukuma river's mouth, 70 km North of the Fukushima Daiichi plant in Iwanuma city, Miyagi prefecture, the river carries 52,500,000,000 Bq/day into the sea as of August 2011, a study commissioned by the ministry of education and science has found. Upstream in Date city (Fukushima prefecture) the flow is 176,300,000,000 Bq/day. 90% of the radiation is carried by sand in the water. It is believed that some of it is stopped by dams.

Tokyo:
http://mainichi.jp/area/tokyo/news/2...40241000c.html Compost in 13 farms in 6 cities and 4 wards in Tokyo metropolis was found above the 400 Bq/kg standard. The highest was 2150 Bq/kg in Hino city.

Kanagawa:
http://mainichi.jp/select/jiken/news...40107000c.html Whereas Yokohama city had found 129 Bq/kg of strontium in the Okurayama sample and 59 Bq/kg of strontium in the Shinyokohama sample, the ministry of education and science has found only 1.1 Bq/kg of Sr-90 in the Shinyokohama sample, and could not find any Sr-89 in both samples. For that reason, the ministry of Education and science denies any link between the Yokohama strontium and the Fukushima accident, and comments that the measuring method used by Yokohama city was not precise enough, by not distinguishing Sr-89 and Sr-90, and suggests that other natural substances such as lead could have been included in the city's measurement.

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/...dm025000c.html [English] "The test detected 0.82 to 1.1 becquerels per kilogram of strontium 90 with a half-life of around 29 years, within levels observed prior to the nuclear crisis."

Tochigi:
http://www.shimotsuke.co.jp/news/toc...0111125/666412 Radiations between 1100 to 2400 Bq/kg were found in dried shiitake mushrooms in Yaita, Motegi, and Sano, bringing to 10 the number of cities and towns with a dried shiitake ban : Yaita , Sakura, Takanezawa, Shioya, Moka, Motegi, Haga, Ichikai, Mashiko, and Sano.

Miyagi:
http://www.kahoku.co.jp/news/2011/11/20111126t11017.htm Miyagi prefecture has released the results of a survey of tsunami debris. All of them are below the 8000 Bq/kg standard for burial, but some burnable material in Yamamoto (769 Bq/kg) and in Watari (350 Bq/kg) might exceed that level when reduced to ashes after incineration.

Fukushima:
http://www.fnn-news.com/news/headlin...N00212137.html A video showing an experimental decontamination of apple trees after harvest by removing their bark. Pressure washing was also used. A 90% reduction rate is claimed after bark removing and a 50% one after washing. The experiment is planned in 3000 farms in Fukushima city and other places.

http://mainichi.jp/select/wadai/news...40052000c.html 5 more farms have been found with rice higher than the safety limit in the Oonami district. They are located between 1 and 2.5 km away from the farm where the problem was first found. This brings to 6 the number of farms higher than the safety limit, out of 34 farms tested so far in the district. The highest radiation found was 1270 Bq/kg. All of the district's 154 farms will be tested.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/2011...209461000.html 103 rice bags were above 500 Bq/kg and 27 rice bags were above 1000 Bq/kg among the 864 bags in 34 farms in Oonami district tested so far.

http://mainichi.jp/area/fukushima/ne...70263000c.html Some of the citizens of Namie town (21,000 people) have been dispersed into all of Japan. It is said that only 2 prefectures in Japan are not inhabited by Namie citizens. On 6 November, a traditional Namie festival was held in Nihonmatsu instead, where 3500 Namie citizens are living.

http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/national/ne....htm?from=navr 14,600 Bq/kg in wild boars in Nihonmatsu.

http://www.asahi.com/national/update...111250281.html A study of cows in the 20 km range around the Fukushima Daiichi plant found that the radiation is between 20 and 30 times higher in muscles than in blood.

http://mytown.asahi.com/fukushima/ne...00001111240006 Fukushima prefecture has already received 80 requests to test garden vegetables, well water, or mushrooms from private citizens. Appointments have been taken until mid December. Tests were started on 24 November in two facilities in Date and Fukushima city. Results will be released on the prefecture website. Facilities in 12 other cities will start receiving such requests by mid December. Fukushima city government also performs such tests and has received 1200 requests so far, which will keep its testing equipment busy until 18 January. On 18 November the results of 139 tests were released. Many are below the 20 Bq/kg detection level. The highest value was 334 Bq/kg for kiwi fruits. 298 Bq/kg in citrons, 258 Bq/kg in kakis, 62 Bq/kg in apples were also found.

Akita:
http://mainichi.jp/area/akita/news/2...40012000c.html Fallen leaves have been tested in 9 locations in the mountain region. Cesium was detected in 5 locations between 2.6 and 18 Bq/kg. The 400 Bq/kg standard for leaf mold is not exceeded. The radiation at 1 m above ground was between 0.03 and 0.08 μSv/h which is the usual level for Akita prefecture.

http://mainichi.jp/area/akita/news/2...40009000c.html All of the ashes from the general waste incineration facilities are below the 8000 Bq/kg standard. In one facility where 60Bq/kg had been found in June or July in exhaust gas soot, the November value was 11 Bq/kg. In another facility the soot radiation declined to 140 Bq/kg from 196 Bq/kg. 13.4 Bq/kg was found in one facility in exhaust water produced after washing ashes.

Aomori:
http://mainichi.jp/area/aomori/news/...40117000c.html Hachinohe city will process tsunami debris below the 100 Bq/kg standard from other prefectures in addition to its own. Monitoring results will be released on the city's internet home page.

Caniche

Fukushima:
http://www.fnn-news.com/news/headlin...N00212137.html A video showing an experimental decontamination of apple trees after harvest by removing their bark. Pressure washing was also used. A 90% reduction rate is claimed after bark removing and a 50% one after washing. The experiment is planned in 3000 farms in Fukushima city and other places.

Well removing the bark will for defo ,100% kill all the trees so that should help reduce contaminated produce

Luca Bevil

I was not trying to insinuate anything.
I was just trying to understand if we already have hard figures on which to begin to evaluate whether or not there might be an increase in suicidal rate as a direct consequence of the nuclear accident.

I sincerely hope with all my hearth, for our Japanese friends, that this will not be the case and that any contamination related anxiety/depression will be effectively dealt with.

It is true, as you write in a former post of yours, that there are several depressing factors acting on the mental status of our Japanese friends, both in Fukushima prefecture and in all the other Earthquake/Tsunami affected prefectures.
On the other hand, from careful analysis of single cases and from statistical incidence of rates among groups exposed to different depressing factors, it is likely that some conclusion on the specific issue we are discussing will be reached.

Thank you Tsutsuji san for your painstaking effort to keep us all informed.

joewein

I am curious when the radiation maps from the helicopter surveys for Hokkaido will be published. So far the area from Aomori to Gifu has been covered. Both of these prefectures at the far ends of the published area came out pretty clean.

A couple of weeks ago there were reports that caesium fallout may have reached eastern Hokkaido (e.g. Japan Times, Nov 18), based on this study.

Sapporo is further from Fukushima-1 than Osaka is, I had been hoping it would not be affected much. After returning to Japan in April I basically avoided buying milk from eastern Japan that was not from Hokkaido.

zapperzero

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-...13-704941.html

paywall, sorry. if anyone has a free version or even the source I'd love to read it, thanks

Azby

I believe this is the same report:
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/T111209006244.htm

Take-away: Half of the 1730 respondents are believed to have received less than 1mSv, half received more. 10 of the 1730 received 10 mSv or higher. The highest received by a person who didn't work at the plant was 14mSv.

These people lived in some of the most contaminated areas. The figures are in line with earlier findings reported for Minamisoma. Exactly how serious these levels are, what they mean for these residents' internal exposures, etc., will be debated for a long time. As more results come in we'll have a clearer picture. But if this is representative of the worst, then I'm cautiously optimistic.

Azby

zapperzero

Thank you for the link. The internal exposures of the residents (at least of those found to have had large external exposure) should not be up for debate. There are ways to measure it.

Azby

Of course you're right. The prefecture's residents' internal contamination is being measured, and until the results are released, there will be debate. And long after as well. I think the 10 people found with more than 10mSv will be prioritized for internal measurements.

Azby

tsutsuji

"There are ways to measure it." ? If a person had 1 mSv of internal contamination over only one day in March, with a short-lived radioelement like Iodine, can we find this out in a medical check performed as late as today ?

Azby

I think we all agree that internal contamination measurements weren't carried out soon enough, and the lack of whole-body counters in the area is just another indication of how unprepared the authorities were for this kind of accident. So now we can only extrapolate possible internal contamination ranges for iodine based on reconstructed external exposures, which won't be accurate enough to satisfy anybody. We'll have a much clearer idea for Cs as more results come in.

zapperzero

Surely no-one managed to only get contaminated internally with Iodine? Other nuclides are longer-lived.