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Kaufmann Risk of Ruin formula 
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#1
Nov811, 08:40 PM

P: 35

Has anyone used this formula before?
www.trade2win.com/traderpedia/Risk_of_ruin risk_of_ruin = ((1  Edge)/(1 + Edge)) ^ Capital_Units Edge is the probability of a win. How is capital_units defined? Is it certain % of current balance or initial capital? If p=0.5, e.g,fair coin toss, how is the formula derived such that ROR always= 0.5/(1+0.5) or 1/3 of capital units? Is there a rationale behind this? Looking for a formula to work backwards for optimal bet size each round of bet , taking into account p,q,C,N where N = max consecutive/string of losses. N is an important variable because total ruin can still occur even when p>0.5. Related free ROR calculator http://www.automatedtradingsystem...nanddrawdown 


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