Obama's Candidacy

IMO - certainly hope the plant is operational in November 2012.

2. He's an incumbent, and historically, incumbents have a good chance of re-election.

Except when unemployment stays high.

Except when unemployment stays high.

The number of people seeking unemployment benefits in the U.S. fell to the lowest point in almost four years last week, the latest signal that the job market is steadily improving.

Weekly applications for unemployment benefits dropped 13,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. It was the fourth drop in five weeks and the fewest number of claims since March 2008 — six months before Lehman Brothers collapsed and only a few months into the Great Recession.

The four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations in the weekly data, fell for the fifth straight week to 365,250. The average has fallen nearly 13 percent in the past year.

The consistent decline indicates that companies are laying off fewer workers, and hiring is likely picking up further. When applications drop below 375,000, it usually signals that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate.

Jeremy Lawson, a senior economist at BNP Paribas, said the report points to solid hiring this month, similar to the average net gain of about 200,000 in the past three months.

Here's something that ought to keep President Obama up at night: No president since FDR has won re-election with unemployment over 7.2%.

The point that employment is now going up does not contradict the separate point that employment is at a historic low (last time was 1983), and that employment at these levels factors into elections.

The Republicans have been steadfast in stalling public-works projects (you know, the bridges, highways, etc) that could employ workers on short notice that might possibly help Obama's chances. That will not go unnoticed when the primary process is done, and the general election enters its early stages. The Democrats are not stupid enough to ignore the advantages that could accrue from decrying and detailing the stalling and obstructionism used in Congress to game the system using arcane rules.

The Republicans have been steadfast in stalling public-works projects (you know, the bridges, highways, etc) that could employ workers on short notice that might possibly help Obama's chances. That will not go unnoticed when the primary process is done, and the general election enters its early stages. The Democrats are not stupid enough to ignore the advantages that could accrue from decrying and detailing the stalling and obstructionism used in Congress to game the system using arcane rules.

Gallup did a poll last week (with a fairly large sample size - don't recall the actual number), and estimated a seasonally adjusted Feb unemployment number of 8.6%, which is an increase from the 8.3% in Jan. And last I checked, Intrade was going at 8.4% or 8.5%. BLS numbers for Feb should be here soon - we'll see how it goes. The Jan dip was encouraging, but historically expected because of its Jan-ness.

The way I see it, if the unemp numbers are still in the 8's come November, Obama is toast. If it's at 7 or better, the Republicans are toast. If unemployment is in between, then it comes to gas prices. If gas is close to $5, Obama will need unemployment to be in the 6's or he'll have a hard time getting re-elected.

Basically, the outcome of election will likely come down to a bunch of factors that are only weakly related to who the people in the race are.

Can you name any of these projects (that Republicans are stalling)?

Unemployment is still 'high' compared to long term averages, right? Just because it's going down doesn't mean he's safe from the historical perspective. I was addressing CharLimit's statement about incumbency being a good bet, but there's more to it than just being the man with the stuck currently.



http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/20...-obama-doomed/