Astronomer Predicts Major Earthquake for Japan

Ivan Seeking

This will either debunk itself in a week, or we move this prediction to another forum.

http://www.space.com/scienceastronom...on_030915.html




Edit: A summary of this thread:

A quake with a magnitude >= 7.0 was predicted for Tokyo for Tuesday or Wednesday. In fact, Tokyo experienced a magnitude 5.5 quake on Saturday.

The energy was about 99.5% less than expected.

The Richter value was in error by 21%

I would think that the odds of a 5.5 quake on any day is no worse than 1:3500. So, if we were off by three days, we might allow for odds like 1:1000 of getting this close by chance. Of course this is just for perspective and not meant as hard numbers. The real number may well be more like 1:100.

I didn’t find a good number for the frequency of Japanese quakes, but I did find a couple of interesting, related sites.

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/current/japan.html

http://www.owlnet.rice.edu/~geol108/...tm#Earthquakes

It is not clear, but the key measure apparently [according to this news report] is measured in reference to the Richter Scale value and not in terms of energy. It seems that an arugment might be made that with no better than 1:100 chance of random success, this quake was predicted within 21% of the actual magnitude. It is also possible that the result [if we use energy as the indicator] was in fact only 0.5% of the expected value.

Edit #2: Then, a week later...
TOKYO, Sept. 26 — Three powerful earthquakes, one of them of potentially historic magnitude [estimated as being an 8.0], struck Hokkaido in northern Japan early Friday morning, causing major structural damage, NBC News reported. The quakes injured more than 240 people and generated a 7-foot-high tsunami off the coast of Hokkaido. Tsunami advisories were issued for much of the Pacific region, including Japan, Russia and the Philippines.
http://www.msnbc.com/news/971921.asp?pne=msntv

This event appears to yield odds of random success - of predicting any quake >=7.0, anywhere in Japan within one week - of around 1:600.

zoobyshoe

Predicting a major earthquake for
Japan is about as risky as
flipping a coin: "Well, I wasn't
completely correct about the
`major' part but the was
an earthquake!"

Ivan Seeking

I agree. Still, if this guy had hit the day and magnitude with a high degree of accuracy - say within 12 hours and within 30% magnitude - then he might as least bare watching, but otherwise it really wouldn't mean much. I heard a report of a 5.5 in Tokyo today. I have not seen this reported elsewhere yet.

Here is another recent event to help put this into perspective:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/2938248.stm

It would take more than even one very accurate hit to really get peoples attention.

zoobyshoe

Tsunami,

Your link has too many https.

Tsu

Yes, I know. I can never get this @#%^&!@#$#%^%$$^^&&^$$%$ thing to work right. I've done it twice and deleted my post twice. It's making me BANANAS!!!!!!!!!!

Tsu

Tokyo hit by earthquake, typhoon
Saturday, September 20, 2003 Posted: 0545 GMT ( 1:45 PM HKT)


http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/redi...66bdeedbb4aedf

edit: I've got it hammered now! Screw that flippin' hyperlink button!! [:D]

Tsu

So, would a 5.5 magnitude earthquake AND a typhoon hitting at the same time be fairly equivalent of a 7 magnitude earthquake? [:D]

zoobyshoe

He predicted 7 or greater. The
quake was 5.5. I guess he can quote me, if he wants.

Tsu

We posted at exactly the same time. You missed my "quetion"! [;)]

Ivan Seeking

Since we did in fact see a quake withing 2 days and 25% of the prediction, my left eyebrow gets raised exactly 0.125". I'm going to take a little closer look.

Tsu

Mine raised APPROXIMATELY 0.25" (I'm well practiced in eyebrow raising) - I didn't take an EXACT measurement like Ivan obviously did.[:D] Ivan - you're a little STRANGE![;)] But then, I do like strange...

Personally, I'm going to give it a 7 since it was REALLY a double-whammy.[8)] Let's give that scientist a round of applause and add a Flying Fickle Finger of Fate award (anyone remember those?)![6)]

zoobyshoe

Would this be millimeters or
thousandths?

Ivan Seeking

Keep it up and I'll turn your fish into a guppy. [:D]

Ivan Seeking

that was 0.125" as in inches. Obviously I'm feeling more generous than you. [:D]

Also, a close look reveals that I don't have eyebrows.

Primitives...hah!

Tsu

Yeah. I'm shakin' in my fins.[a)]

Ivan Seeking

[:D] [:D] [:D] [:D] [:D] [:D] [:D]

Not bad Tsunami! I rate that as a seven head funny. No wonder you're up for chief comedian.

zoobyshoe

I am actually impressed that he
got the time and location right.
I was expecting there would be the
usual 4.0 somewhere in
Japan and that he'd try to take
credit for having forseen it. It
could be his system works accur-
ately, except when there's
a typhoon on the way.