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Can a random number generator predict the future? |
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| Feb15-05, 09:29 AM | #1 |
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Can a random number generator predict the future?
"'It's Earth-shattering stuff,' says Dr Roger Nelson, emeritus researcher at Princeton University in the United States, who is heading the research project behind the 'black box' phenomenon."
They say this box that generates random numbers, 1 or 0, generated many more 1's just before princess diana's death, sept. 11, the tsunami. And that people in the same room as it, concentrating, can make it generate more 1's too. http://www.rednova.com/news/display/?id=126649# |
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| Feb15-05, 09:42 AM | #2 |
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So why was diana's death such a special event?
Given any long string of 1's, you are guaranteed that SOME unusual event will occur right after it, since unusual events happen all the time. |
| Feb15-05, 10:55 AM | #3 |
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I wonder how many long strings of ones occured with no such event to be seen, or where some large degree of searching or a few days wait was required before such an event could be found.
If a random number generator does not generate numbers randomly, it would seem to me what what we have is a technical fault. Still, my mind remains open to any evidence or explanation that emerges. |
| Feb15-05, 11:04 AM | #4 |
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Can a random number generator predict the future?
Both the Global Consciousness Project( http://noosphere.princeton.edu/ ) and the PEAR project( http://www.princeton.edu/~pear/ ) seem to indicate that consciousness can influence the RNGs.
Some quotes from PEARs abstracts: A quote from the Global Consciousness site: |
| Feb15-05, 11:05 AM | #5 |
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If it was true then every one should have a small random number generator that warned you of to many ones or zeroes that i bet is even worse.
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| Feb15-05, 11:30 AM | #6 |
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Mentor
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The beauty (and key flaw) in this is, of course, that it makes no predictions but rather the correlations come from after-the-fact data mining. Others hit the flaw, but basically, if you take any string of random numbers, you can cut it different ways to get different mixes of 1s and 0s. A good statastician could probably even construct an equation to model the phenomena....
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| Feb15-05, 12:20 PM | #7 |
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Also i believe that in the Global Consciousness Research, they did make some predictions. For instance they knew that the OJ simpson trial would be on TV and then 'predicted' that there would be a deviation from randomness. However, you probably cant make predictions like 'because the randomness is disturbed, a meteor will hit New York tomorrow'. |
| Feb15-05, 12:50 PM | #8 |
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Mentor
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I suggest reading this to get a realistic view of the results. http://www.skepdic.com/pear.html
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| Feb15-05, 01:11 PM | #9 |
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I think it would be a fun, though pointless study to have people "guess" the next number out of the generator, and see if they guess right. Maybe if I could guess 50.02% of the time correctly, I myself could predict the future.
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| Feb15-05, 01:45 PM | #10 |
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| Feb15-05, 03:13 PM | #11 |
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Hmm...
Let's see here. The variation from the expected value is [tex].5002-.5=.0002[/tex] Now, that's within the expected margin for [tex]\frac{1}{.0002^2}=\frac{1}{.00000004}=25000000[/tex] about 25 million trials. Not really all that exiting considering that that's roughly the number of trials that they ran. |
| Feb15-05, 05:11 PM | #12 |
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Anyone know what method their RNG's use to generate random numbers? And any systematic errors that might show up after running it for so long?
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| Feb16-05, 04:02 AM | #13 |
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If random number generators told you what have happened, then two random number generators would tell the same tale with more (or less) then 50 % accuracy.
I'm sure that in a billion years there will be two random number generator that tells the tale with up to 90 procent accuracy, though I'm not a 100 % sure of how it would work. |
| Feb16-05, 02:41 PM | #14 |
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I am wondering... It wouldn't be hard to do this kind of experiment yourself, right? All you need is a random bit generator and a constantly running(not crashing) computer.
Eventually some major event will happen again and we could see the outcomes ourselves. Anyone volunteering ?Or is there some kind of 'special' random bit generator needed for this... |
| Feb16-05, 04:52 PM | #15 |
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I believe that a true random number generator could not predict the future...number,let alone the future numbers...
Daniel. P.S.It's so silly,huh...? |
| Feb16-05, 05:08 PM | #16 |
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| Feb16-05, 05:26 PM | #17 |
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I believe they use radioactive atomic decay for the RNGs, so an atom decays and an electron is released and it generates a number somehow.
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