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Can a random number generator predict the future?

 
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Feb15-05, 09:29 AM   #1
 

Can a random number generator predict the future?


"'It's Earth-shattering stuff,' says Dr Roger Nelson, emeritus researcher at Princeton University in the United States, who is heading the research project behind the 'black box' phenomenon."

They say this box that generates random numbers, 1 or 0, generated many more 1's just before princess diana's death, sept. 11, the tsunami. And that people in the same room as it, concentrating, can make it generate more 1's too.

http://www.rednova.com/news/display/?id=126649#
 
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Feb15-05, 09:42 AM   #2
 
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So why was diana's death such a special event?
Given any long string of 1's, you are guaranteed that SOME unusual event will occur right after it, since unusual events happen all the time.
 
Feb15-05, 10:55 AM   #3
 
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I wonder how many long strings of ones occured with no such event to be seen, or where some large degree of searching or a few days wait was required before such an event could be found.
If a random number generator does not generate numbers randomly, it would seem to me what what we have is a technical fault.

Still, my mind remains open to any evidence or explanation that emerges.
 
Feb15-05, 11:04 AM   #4
 

Can a random number generator predict the future?


Both the Global Consciousness Project( http://noosphere.princeton.edu/ ) and the PEAR project( http://www.princeton.edu/~pear/ ) seem to indicate that consciousness can influence the RNGs.

Some quotes from PEARs abstracts:

Two decades of intense experimentation and complementary theoretical modeling leave little doubt that the anomalous physical phenomena appearing in these PEAR studies are significantly correlated with subjective human processes, akin to such ineffable experiences as joy, wonder, creativity, and love. Yet, contemporary scientific rigor leaves little room for subjective correlates in its mechanistic representation of reality.

This book reexamines the role of consciousness in the light of a new body of experimental data on the interaction of human operators with various technical devices and information-processing systems. Many philosophical fibers are required to sift these results into a coherent model; but once the essential concepts are in place, human consciousness indeed emerges endowed with an active component. By virtue of the manner in which it exchanges information with its environment, orders that information, and interprets it, consciousness has the ability to bias probabilistic processes, and thereby to avail itself of certain margins of reality.
Several million experimental trials investigating the ability of human operators to affect the output of various random physical physical devices have demonstrated small but statistically significant shifts of the distribution means that correlate with operator intention, exhibit repeatable idiosyncratic individual variations, and display consistent patterns of gender dependence, series position development, and internal distribution structure.
Several extensive experimental studies of human/machine interactions, wherein the human operators and the target machines are separated by distances of up to several thousand miles, yield anomalous results comparable in scale and character to those produced under conditions of physical proximity. The output distributions of random binary events produced produced by a variety of microelectronic random and pseudorandom generators, as well as by a macroscopic random mechanical cascade, display small but replicable and statistically significant mean shifts correlated with the remote operators’ pre-stated intentions, and feature cumulative achievement patterns similar to those of the corresponding local experiments. Individual operator effect sizes distribute normally, with the majority of participants contributing to the overall effect. Patterns of specific count populations are also similar to those found in the corresponding local experiments. The insensitivity of the size and details of these results to intervening distance and time adds credence to a large database of precognitive remote perception experiments, and suggests that these two forms of anomaly may draw from similar mechanisms of information exchange between human consciousness and random physical processes.

A quote from the Global Consciousness site:

After all the caveats, however, we can say that the evidence for an effect of consciousness on REGs is strong. We are driven by that evidence to infer that something like a "consciousness field" exists, and that intentions or emotional states which structure the field are conveyed as information that is absorbed into the distribution of output values of labile physical systems. The output of the REG differs from what would be expected without the influence of consciousness.
 
Feb15-05, 11:05 AM   #5
 
If it was true then every one should have a small random number generator that warned you of to many ones or zeroes that i bet is even worse.
 
Feb15-05, 11:30 AM   #6
 
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The beauty (and key flaw) in this is, of course, that it makes no predictions but rather the correlations come from after-the-fact data mining. Others hit the flaw, but basically, if you take any string of random numbers, you can cut it different ways to get different mixes of 1s and 0s. A good statastician could probably even construct an equation to model the phenomena....
 
Feb15-05, 12:20 PM   #7
 
Quote by russ_watters
The beauty (and key flaw) in this is, of course, that it makes no predictions but rather the correlations come from after-the-fact data mining.
The PEAR research does make 'predictions'. (For example they tell a person to try and make the RNG produce more 0's.)

Also i believe that in the Global Consciousness Research, they did make some predictions. For instance they knew that the OJ simpson trial would be on TV and then 'predicted' that there would be a deviation from randomness.

However, you probably cant make predictions like 'because the randomness is disturbed, a meteor will hit New York tomorrow'.
 
Feb15-05, 12:50 PM   #8
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I suggest reading this to get a realistic view of the results. http://www.skepdic.com/pear.html
 
Feb15-05, 01:11 PM   #9
 
I think it would be a fun, though pointless study to have people "guess" the next number out of the generator, and see if they guess right. Maybe if I could guess 50.02% of the time correctly, I myself could predict the future.
 
Feb15-05, 01:45 PM   #10
 
Quote by Evo
I suggest reading this to get a realistic view of the results. http://www.skepdic.com/pear.html
The question is which source is more reliable?
 
Feb15-05, 03:13 PM   #11
 
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Hmm...
Let's see here. The variation from the expected value is
[tex].5002-.5=.0002[/tex]
Now, that's within the expected margin for
[tex]\frac{1}{.0002^2}=\frac{1}{.00000004}=25000000[/tex]
about 25 million trials. Not really all that exiting considering that that's roughly the number of trials that they ran.
 
Feb15-05, 05:11 PM   #12
 
Anyone know what method their RNG's use to generate random numbers? And any systematic errors that might show up after running it for so long?
 
Feb16-05, 04:02 AM   #13
 
If random number generators told you what have happened, then two random number generators would tell the same tale with more (or less) then 50 % accuracy.

I'm sure that in a billion years there will be two random number generator that tells the tale with up to 90 procent accuracy, though I'm not a 100 % sure of how it would work.
 
Feb16-05, 02:41 PM   #14
 
I am wondering... It wouldn't be hard to do this kind of experiment yourself, right? All you need is a random bit generator and a constantly running(not crashing) computer.
Eventually some major event will happen again and we could see the outcomes ourselves.

Anyone volunteering ?

Or is there some kind of 'special' random bit generator needed for this...
 
Feb16-05, 04:52 PM   #15
 
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I believe that a true random number generator could not predict the future...number,let alone the future numbers...

Daniel.

P.S.It's so silly,huh...?
 
Feb16-05, 05:08 PM   #16
 
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Anyone know what method their RNG's use to generate random numbers? And any systematic errors that might show up after running it for so long?
Here's one example:

http://java.sun.com/j2se/1.4.2/docs/api/index.html
 
Feb16-05, 05:26 PM   #17
 
I believe they use radioactive atomic decay for the RNGs, so an atom decays and an electron is released and it generates a number somehow.
 
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