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Probability Question

by Drakkith
Tags: probability
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Drakkith
#1
Feb20-14, 02:54 PM
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An event has an 8% chance to occur per try. How would I calculate the chance of the event occurring at least once after 3 tries?
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jbriggs444
#2
Feb20-14, 03:00 PM
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Is the probability in one trial independent of the actual results in the others?

If so, can you write a formula for the event to not occur at all in three tries?
PeroK
#3
Feb20-14, 03:05 PM
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Quote Quote by Drakkith View Post
An event has an 8% chance to occur per try. How would I calculate the chance of the event occurring at least once after 3 tries?
The chance of it not occurring in 3 tries is $$0.92^3$$
So, you want $$1- 0.92^3$$

jtbell
#4
Feb20-14, 03:38 PM
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Probability Question

To gain some insight into this problem, try the following brute-force method. List all the possible outcomes for the set of three tries:

1=no, 2=no, 3=no : probability = 0.92 * 0.92 * 0.92 =
1=yes, 2=no, 3=no : probability = 0.08 * 0.92 * 0.92 =
etc.

Enumerate all the outcomes (how many of them are there?), calculate the probability for each one, and add up the ones that meet your criterion.
Drakkith
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Feb20-14, 05:34 PM
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Awesome. Thanks guys.


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